The identity is the most likely exchange shuffle for large n
  Let a deck of n cards be shuffled by successively exchanging the cards in positions 1, 2, ..., n with cards in randomly chosen positions. We show that for n equal to 18 or greater, the identity permutation is the most likely. We prove a surprising symmetry of the resulting distribution on permutations. We also obtain the limiting distribution of the number of fixed points as n goes to infinity. 
Daniel Goldstein and David Moews