Models of Disk Evolution: Confrontation with Observations
  We present simple models for disk evolution based on two different approaches: a forward approach based on predictions generic to hierarchical models for structure formation (e.g., Mo, Mao, & White 1998) and a backwards approach based on detailed modeling of the Milky Way galaxy (e.g., Bouwens, Cayon, & Silk 1997). We normalize these models to local observations and predict high-redshift luminosities, sizes, circular velocities, and surface brightnesses. Both approaches yield somewhat similar predictions for size, surface brightness, and luminosity evolution though they clearly differ in the amount of number evolution. These predictions seem to be broadly consistent with the high-redshift observations of Simard et al. (1999), suggesting that the B-band surface brightness of disks has indeed evolved by ~1.5 mag from z~0 to z~1 similar to the models and is not an artifact of selection effects as previously claimed. We also find a lack of low surface brightness galaxies in several high redshift samples relative to model predictions based on local samples (de Jong & van der Kruit 1994; Mathewson, Ford, & Buchhorn 1992). 
Rychard J. Bouwens (UC Santa Cruz), Joseph Silk (Oxford)