Statistical modelling of tropical cyclone genesis: a non-parametric   model for the annual distribution
  As part of a project to develop more accurate estimates of the risks due to tropical cyclones, we describe a non-parametric method for the statistical simulation of the location of tropical cyclone genesis. The method avoids the use of arbitrary grid boxes, and the spatial smoothing of the historical data is constructed optimally according to a clearly defined merit function. 
Tim Hall and Stephen Jewson