An End-to-End Probabilistic Network Calculus with Moment Generating   Functions
  Network calculus is a min-plus system theory for performance evaluation of queuing networks. Its elegance stems from intuitive convolution formulas for concatenation of deterministic servers. Recent research dispenses with the worst-case assumptions of network calculus to develop a probabilistic equivalent that benefits from statistical multiplexing. Significant achievements have been made, owing for example to the theory of effective bandwidths, however, the outstanding scalability set up by concatenation of deterministic servers has not been shown.   This paper establishes a concise, probabilistic network calculus with moment generating functions. The presented work features closed-form, end-to-end, probabilistic performance bounds that achieve the objective of scaling linearly in the number of servers in series. The consistent application of moment generating functions put forth in this paper utilizes independence beyond the scope of current statistical multiplexing of flows. A relevant additional gain is demonstrated for tandem servers with independent cross-traffic. 
Markus Fidler