A Statistical Analysis of Intergalactic Medium Transmission Approaching   Reionization
  We use hydrodynamic cosmological simulations in a 9.6 Mpc box to explore the evolution of the intergalactic medium (IGM) transmissivity from z=2 through the epoch of reionization. Reionization is achieved through an ultraviolet background (UVB) that includes evolving stellar and QSO source populations. We construct and analyze noiseless synthetic HI Lya absorption spectra along lines of sight through our continuously evolving box and find a smooth evolution of the effective optical depth under a power law up to the epoch of reionization. Crossing into the epoch of reionization, both the mean transmitted flux (MTF) and variance to the mean transmitted flux sharply deviate from a smooth evolution and hence such observables have large margins of error. Despite the statistical uncertainty in inferring the reionization profile from spectra, the end of an opacity phase transition of the IGM correlates well with the redshift when both the mean and variance of the transmitted flux rapidly deviate from the post-reionization profile. However, an unobtainable number of lines of sight is needed to allow an estimate of the MTF with less than 10% relative margin of error. In addition to optical transmission, we compare the predicted dark gap length distribution with observations. We show that this statistic is sensitive to spectral resolution at reionization redshifts, but overall in agreement with results by Songaila and Cowie (2002). Finally, we derive a positive correlation between the mean optical depth within a gap and the size of the gap, in attempt to relate "transmission statistics" to "dark gap statistics" in high redshift studies of the IGM. 
Pascal Paschos & Michael L. Norman