You Can Fool Some People Sometimes
  We develop an empirical procedure to qunatify future company performance based on top management promises. We find that the number of future tense sentence occurrences in 10-K reports is significantly negatively correlated with the return as well as with the excess return on the company stock price. We extrapolate the same methodology to US presidential campaigns since 1960 and come to some startling conclusions. 
Rasa Karapandza and Milos Bozovic