New improvements in the use of dependence measures for sensitivity   analysis and screening
  Physical phenomena are commonly modeled by numerical simulators. Such codes can take as input a high number of uncertain parameters and it is important to identify their influences via a global sensitivity analysis (GSA). However, these codes can be time consuming which prevents a GSA based on the classical Sobol' indices, requiring too many simulations. This is especially true as the number of inputs is important. To address this limitation, we consider recent advances in dependence measures, focusing on the distance correlation and the Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion (HSIC). Our objective is to study these indices and use them for a screening purpose. Numerical tests reveal some differences between dependence measures and classical Sobol' indices, and preliminary answers to "What sensitivity indices to what situation?" are derived. Then, two approaches are proposed to use the dependence measures for a screening purpose. The first one directly uses these indices with independence tests; asymptotic tests and their spectral extensions exist and are detailed. For a higher accuracy in presence of small samples, we propose a non-asymptotic version based on bootstrap sampling. The second approach is based on a linear model associating two simulations, which explains their output difference as a weighed sum of their input differences. From this, a bootstrap method is proposed for the selection of the influential inputs. We also propose a heuristic approach for the calibration of the HSIC Lasso method. Numerical experiments are performed and show the potential of these approaches for screening when many inputs are not influential. 
Matthias De Lozzo (DER), Amandine Marrel (DER)
stat.ME math.ST stat.TH