Reduced Complexity Filtering with Stochastic Dominance Bounds: A Convex   Optimization Approach
  This paper uses stochastic dominance principles to construct upper and lower sample path bounds for Hidden Markov Model (HMM) filters. Given a HMM, by using convex optimization methods for nuclear norm minimization with copositive constraints, we construct low rank stochastic marices so that the optimal filters using these matrices provably lower and upper bound (with respect to a partially ordered set) the true filtered distribution at each time instant. Since these matrices are low rank (say R), the computational cost of evaluating the filtering bounds is O(XR) instead of O(X2). A Monte-Carlo importance sampling filter is presented that exploits these upper and lower bounds to estimate the optimal posterior. Finally, using the Dobrushin coefficient, explicit bounds are given on the variational norm between the true posterior and the upper and lower bounds. 
Vikram Krishnamurthy and Cristian Rojas
stat.CO