Hidden Gibbs random fields model selection using Block Likelihood   Information Criterion
  Performing model selection between Gibbs random fields is a very challenging task. Indeed, due to the Markovian dependence structure, the normalizing constant of the fields cannot be computed using standard analytical or numerical methods. Furthermore, such unobserved fields cannot be integrated out and the likelihood evaluztion is a doubly intractable problem. This forms a central issue to pick the model that best fits an observed data. We introduce a new approximate version of the Bayesian Information Criterion. We partition the lattice into continuous rectangular blocks and we approximate the probability measure of the hidden Gibbs field by the product of some Gibbs distributions over the blocks. On that basis, we estimate the likelihood and derive the Block Likelihood Information Criterion (BLIC) that answers model choice questions such as the selection of the dependency structure or the number of latent states. We study the performances of BLIC for those questions. In addition, we present a comparison with ABC algorithms to point out that the novel criterion offers a better trade-off between time efficiency and reliable results. 
Julien Stoehr, Jean-Michel Marin and Pierre Pudlo
stat.CO