Mean Field Model for Collective Motion Bistability
  We consider the Czir\'ok model for collective motion of locusts along a one-dimensional torus. In the model, each agent's velocity locally interacts with other agents' velocities in the system, and there is also exogenous randomness to each agent's velocity. The interaction tends to create the alignment of collective motion. By analyzing the associated nonlinear Fokker-Planck equation, we obtain the condition for the existence of stationary order states and the conditions for their linear stability. These conditions depend on the noise level, which should be strong enough, and on the interaction between the agent's velocities, which should be neither too small, nor too strong. We carry out the fluctuation analysis of the interacting system and describe the large deviation principle to calculate the transition probability from one order state to the other. Numerical simulations confirm our analytical findings. 
Josselin Garnier and George Papanicolaou and Tzu-Wei Yang
math.AP