The effect of delay on contact tracing
  We consider a model for an infectious disease in the onset of an outbreak. We introduce contact tracing incorporating a tracing delay. The effect of randomness in the delay and the effect of the length of this delay in comparison to the infectious period of the disease respectively to a latency period on the effect of tracing, given e.g. by the change of the reproduction number, is analyzed. We focus particularly on the effect of randomness in the tracing delay. 
Johannes M\"uller and Bendix Koopmann
math.DS math.PR q-bio.PE