EMBERS at 4 years: Experiences operating an Open Source Indicators   Forecasting System
  EMBERS is an anticipatory intelligence system forecasting population-level events in multiple countries of Latin America. A deployed system from 2012, EMBERS has been generating alerts 24x7 by ingesting a broad range of data sources including news, blogs, tweets, machine coded events, currency rates, and food prices. In this paper, we describe our experiences operating EMBERS continuously for nearly 4 years, with specific attention to the discoveries it has enabled, correct as well as missed forecasts, and lessons learnt from participating in a forecasting tournament including our perspectives on the limits of forecasting and ethical considerations. 
Sathappan Muthiah, Patrick Butler, Rupinder Paul Khandpur, Parang   Saraf, Nathan Self, Alla Rozovskaya, Liang Zhao, Jose Ca...
cs.CY cs.SI