Design Analysis for Optimal Calibration of Diffusivity in Reactive   Multilayers
  Calibration of the uncertain Arrhenius diffusion parameters for quantifying mixing rates in Zr-Al nanolaminate foils was performed in a Bayesian setting [Vohra et al., 2014]. The parameters were inferred in a low temperature regime characterized by homogeneous ignition and a high temperature regime characterized by self-propagating reactions in the multilayers. In this work, we extend the analysis to find optimal experimental designs that would provide the best data for inference. We employ a rigorous framework that quantifies the expected in- formation gain in an experiment, and find the optimal design conditions using numerical techniques of Monte Carlo, sparse quadrature, and polynomial chaos surrogates. For the low temperature regime, we find the optimal foil heating rate and pulse duration, and confirm through simulation that the optimal design indeed leads to sharper posterior distributions of the diffusion parameters. For the high temperature regime, we demonstrate potential for increase in the expected information gain of the posteriors by increasing sample size and reducing uncertainty in measurements. Moreover, posterior marginals are also produced to verify favorable experimental scenarios for this regime. 
Manav Vohra, Xun Huan, Timothy P. Weihs, Omar M. Knio
physics.data-an