A baseline-free method to identify responsive customers on dynamic   time-of-use tariffs
  Dynamic time-of-use tariffs incentivise changes in electricity consumption. This paper presents a non-parametric method to retrospectively analyse consumption data and quantify the significance of a customer's observed response to a dynamic price signal without constructing a baseline demand model. If data from a control group is available, this can be used to infer customer responsiveness - individually and collectively - on an absolute scale. The results are illustrated using data from the Low Carbon London project, which included the UK's first dynamic time-of-use pricing trial. 
James R. Schofield, Simon H. Tindemans, Goran Strbac
stat.ME stat.AP