Ergodicity and Accuracy of Optimal Particle Filters for Bayesian Data   Assimilation
  For particle filters and ensemble Kalman filters it is of practical importance to understand how and why data assimilation methods can be effective when used with a fixed small number of particles, since for many large-scale applications it is not practical to deploy algorithms close to the large particle limit asymptotic. In this paper we address this question for particle filters and, in particular, study their accuracy (in the small noise limit) and ergodicity (for noisy signal and observation) without appealing to the large particle number limit. We first overview the accuracy and minorization properties for the true filtering distribution, working in the setting of conditional Gaussianity for the dynamics-observation model. We then show that these properties are inherited by optimal particle filters for any fixed number of particles, and use the minorization to establish ergodicity of the filters. For completeness we also prove large particle number consistency results for the optimal particle filters, by writing the update equations for the underlying distributions as recursions. In addition to looking at the optimal particle filter with standard resampling, we derive all the above results for (what we term) the Gaussianized optimal particle filter and show that the theoretical properties are favorable for this method, when compared to the standard optimal particle filter. 
David Kelly and Andrew M Stuart
math.PR math.ST stat.TH