Online Identification of Time-Varying Systems: a Bayesian approach
  We extend the recently introduced regularization/Bayesian System Identification procedures to the estimation of time-varying systems. Specifically, we consider an online setting, in which new data become available at given time steps. The real-time estimation requirements imposed by this setting are met by estimating the hyper-parameters through just one gradient step in the marginal likelihood maximization and by exploiting the closed-form availability of the impulse response estimate (when Gaussian prior and Gaussian measurement noise are postulated). By relying on the use of a forgetting factor, we propose two methods to tackle the tracking of time-varying systems. In one of them, the forgetting factor is estimated by treating it as a hyper-parameter of the Bayesian inference procedure. 
Giulia Prando, Diego Romeres, Alessandro Chiuso
cs.SY