Large Deviations for Permutations Avoiding Monotone Patterns
  For a given permutation $\tau$, let $P_N^{\tau}$ be the uniform probability distribution on the set of $N$-element permutations $\sigma$ that avoid the pattern $\tau$. For $\tau=\mu_k:=123\cdots k$, we consider $P_N^{\mu_k}(\sigma_I=J)$ where $I\sim \gamma N$ and $J\sim \delta N$ for $\gamma,\delta \in (0,1)$. If $\gamma+\delta\neq 1$ then we are in the large deviations regime with the probability decaying exponentially, and we calculate the limiting value of $P_N^{\mu_k}(\sigma_I=J)^{1/N}$. We also observe that for $\tau = \lambda_{k,\ell} := 12\ldots\ell k(k-1)\ldots(\ell+1)$ and $\gamma+\delta<1$, the limit of $P_N^{\tau}(\sigma_I=J)^{1/N}$ is the same as for $\tau=\mu_k$. 
Neal Madras, Lerna Pehlivan
math.CO