Prospects for natural SUSY
  As we anticipate the first results of the 2016 run, we assess the discovery potential of the LHC to `natural supersymmetry'. To begin with, we explore the region of the model parameter space that can be excluded with various centre-of-mass energies (13 TeV and 14 TeV) and different luminosities (20 fb$^{-1}$, 100 fb$^{-1}$, 300 fb$^{-1}$ and 3000 fb$^{-1}$). We find that the bounds at 95% CL on stops vary from $m_{\tilde{t}_1}\gtrsim 900$ GeV expected this summer to $m_{\tilde{t}_1}\gtrsim 1500$ GeV at the end of the high luminosity run, while gluino bounds are expected to range from $m_{\tilde{g}}\gtrsim 1700$ GeV to $m_{\tilde{g}}\gtrsim 2500$ GeV over the same time period. However, more pessimistically we find that if no signal begins to appear this summer, only a very small region of parameter space can be discovered with 5-$\sigma$ significance. For this conclusion to change, we find that both theoretical and systematic uncertainties will need to be significantly reduced. 
Jong Soo Kim, Krzysztof Rolbiecki, Roberto Ruiz, Jamie Tattersall,   Torsten Weber
hep-ph hep-ex