A bit earlier with my bets this weekend and plenty to get stuck into, including another bet for my Ante-post portfolio on Wigan to go down at evens. They travel to West Ham in what promises to be a dire game, full of strikers who couldn’t hit a pigs backside with a banjo, and should they lose this evens price will shrink further. This bet on the pie-eaters to go down compliments a number of my existing ante-post selections and they are a poor team, have only scored 10 goals all year and will be lucky to stay up in my opinion.
As for this weekend, well it finally seems that everyone else has finally caught on to how good Bolton have been of late. They have been racking up the goals and I don’t think Blackpool will be able to stop their bandwagon so fancy the trotters to overcome a -1 handicap at 2.07. With Matt Gilks out, the Tangerines are considerably weaker and I am hopeful that Elmander and Davies can rattle a few more in this Lancashire derby. Gilks replacement – Kingston, is never far from dropping a clanger, let’s hope it’s this weekend.
Call me a fool but I am also going to stick with Fulham to win this weekend, even after their pasting by City last Sunday. I wonder if there has been an over-reaction to Fulham odds wise this week as the Cottagers haven’t been that bad this season (Sunday apart!). They have had a tough start, playing 5 of the top 7 already and I feel they are in a false position. Last year they won 11 out of 18 at the Cottage and Brum lost 12 out of 18 on the road. Thus the odds of 2.1 on a home win indicate a 47.6% chance, whereas I make it 50%+.
Similarly Wolves are a very big price to beat Sunderland this weekend, no doubt influenced by their woeful run of late and the Black Cats recent 3-0 mauling at Chelsea. Facts are though that the win at Stamford Bridge was Sunderland’s first away from home this season and Wolves have had the toughest run of games imaginable. I am going to take the 0 Asian Handicap on Wolves at 1.94 with SBObet.
My final main bet is on Spurs to see off Liverpool as they have a very strong home record and the odds of 2.15 look far too big. They won 14 out of 19 home games last year and Liverpool have lost their last 6 away games at the league’s top teams in recent times (Spurs, UtdX2, Chelsea, Arsenal , City). I make Spurs more of a 50% chance at least so anything over evens is value.
Two shortlist bets as well as Arsenal at 2.26 look well placed to see off a young Villa team, although the loss of Fabregas is a blow. Everton and West Brom have been shot shy recently and can easily see this finishing 1-0 or 1-1 so the 2.02 on under 2.5 goals appeals.
Liverpool are a team with a famous home record and despite Stevie G’s latest injury and the frightening prospect of Christian Poulsen replacing him, they look under-rated to beat West Ham this weekend. Avram Grant may look like a funeral director and he is certainly giving off the air of a dead-man walking as he looks not long for the Upton Park hotseat. After watching the Hammers last week their strikers would struggle to finish their tea and they have a woeful away record in recent times. Roy Hodgson often has a very good home record with his teams and Liverpool to overcome a -1 Asian Handicap at 2.12 with SBObet looks a quality bet to me.
Mark Hughes will be the focus of attention on Sunday as his new charges Fulham host Man City, in a game you just know he will have his team fired up for. Fulham have a very good home record and only lost to Spurs at the Cottage recently thanks to a dodgy referee decision. The 1.91 from SBObet on the home team with a +0.25 Asian Handicap means a decent profit even if they draw and I am backing them here.
Bolton is famous for a few things in my eyes – Phoenix Nights, Big Sam’s double chin and of course the fact they have been criminally under-rated by the bookies this season. After watching the likes of Johan Elmander look more like Johan Cruyff last weekend, with his amazing goal against Wolves, you would think more people would be backing them. They remain a very well drilled Premier league outfit and I fancy them at 2.20 to beat an inconsistent Newcastle.
Elsewhere I am backing another team with a strong home record as I feel Blackburn will provide Aston Villa’s youngsters with a very tough physical challenge and may well have too much for them. As impressive as they were against a depleted United side last week, an away-day battering at Ewood Park may represent a totally different experience for Houllier’s youthful team and I am siding with Big Sam’s outfit to overcome a -0.25 Handicap at 1.98 with Ladbrokes.
Finally a couple of under and over 2.5 goals bets, firstly at West Brom, who host a Stoke team shot-shy on the road. Last season Stoke went unders in 74% of all away games and West Brom have been under in 67% of games this season. Neither team look particularly potent up front and the 1.85 on under 2.5 goals with Expekt rates this as a 54% chance. I think it’s more of a 60% chance and so am having a bet.
One shortlist bet is Everton away at Sunderland, where the over 2.5 goals looks too big at 2.42, which is a 41% chance. Everton went overs in 58% of all away games and Sunderland in 47% of all homes games last season. Neither team has been banging them in this year as yet but that will change and I think the likely % chance is closer to 50%, so we have value there.
Blackpool have been a breath of fresh air this season, not least for the crazy bumpkin manager Ian Holloway but for their at time kamikaze gung-ho attacking play. The tangerines travel down this weekend to face leaky West Ham in a game that has goals written all over it in 10 foot tall neon letters. The Hammers have gone overs in around 65% of all home games, whereas Blackpool have been overs in 10 out of 12 games this season. Neither team can defend to save their lives and with the home team having to win this game, expect an attacking outlook. The bookies have it pegged at a 2.14 for over 3 goals (basically we lose if 2 or less goals, draw if 3 goals and win if 4 goals or more) and I am having a piece of that!
My perennial fave team this year Bolton, continue to look under-rated by the bookies and look value once again as they travel to Molineux to face Wolves. Bolton have been beaten only twice this season by Arsenal and Liverpool despite a very tricky set of games so far. I make the chance of a draw or Bolton win to be around 55 to 60%, which equates to odds of about 1.74. The bookies are offering me 1.91 with Stan James on them with a +0.25 Asian Handicap so there is clear value there.
Elsewhere I also fancy 3 teams who are strong at home in the form of Everton, Stoke and Aston Villa to win for me this weekend.
Villa have been beaten only once at home by a top 8 team and conversely United have won only 3 games away against the top 8 since the 09/10 season. A United away win I rate at between 30 – 40% chance here and considering the likes of Scholes, Rooney & Giggs are out they may struggle to break Villa down. I’m taking the +0.5 Asian Handicap on Villa at 2.14 with 12Bet as I make the true odds of this to be around 2.0.
Everton have been playing well with little reward lately as they can’t find the back of the net but stats show their dominance in matches. Historically under David Moyes, Everton have a formidable home record and Arsenal will do well to win here so the +0.5 on Everton at 1.78 from 188bet appeals.
Finally Stoke have endured a very tough run of games, not helped by some very dodgy referees decisions and they host a tired looking Liverpool who look to be feeling the effects of having such a small squad. Stoke are notoriously difficult to break down and only lost at home to the top 4 teams last season. I am taking the +0.5 Asian Handicap again on the home outfit at 1.88 with Stan James.