Integration of the Statistics of Extremes, the Conditional  Expectation and the Probable Maximum Flood
{'Code': '07030000', 'Directorate': {'Abbreviation': 'ENG', 'LongName': 'Directorate For Engineering'}, 'Division': {'Abbreviation': 'CMMI', 'LongName': 'Div Of Civil, Mechanical, & Manufact Inn'}}
{'SignBlockName': 'J. Eleonora Sabadell'}
The objective of this work is to enhance the understanding of the risks         and catastrophic natural and manmade events.                                                                                                                    The project will develop the mathematical bases where three                     concepts/issues will be integrated: a) the return period of the maximum         probable flood (PMF); b) the statistics of the extreme and the choice of        probability distribution function; and c) the conditional expected              damage as derived from the partitioned multiobjective risk method (PMRM)        that corresponds to low frequency/high impact events.                                                                                                           This work will increase and improve our understanding of the stochastic         processes associated with extreme natural events.  Five tasks will be           carried out, and they are: 1) develop a cogent and definite mathematical        relationship between the a-priori assumptions on the return period of           the PMF and their effects on dam safety problems; 2) expand findings to         the dynamics of the return period of PMF in general; 3) broaden the             relationship between PMRM and the statistics of extremes from certain           densities to a larger class of distributions; 4) link the concept of            conditional expectation of extreme events to the concept of return              period; and 5) integrate tasks 3 and 4, so as to create the envisioned          mathematical model.                                                                                                                                             An Expedited Award for Novel research is here recommended.
{'FirstName': 'Yacov', 'LastName': 'Haimes', 'EmailAddress': 'yyh4f@virginia.edu', 'StartDate': '02/01/1987', 'EndDate': None, 'RoleCode': 'Principal Investigator'}
{'Name': 'Case Western Reserve University', 'CityName': 'CLEVELAND', 'ZipCode': '441064901', 'PhoneNumber': '2163684510', 'StreetAddress': 'Nord Hall, Suite 615', 'CountryName': 'United States', 'StateName': 'Ohio', 'StateCode': 'OH'}
{'Code': '1474', 'Text': 'NAT & MAN-MADE HAZARD MITIGATI'}
{'url': 'https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/download?DownloadFileName=1987&All=true', 'xml': '8703935.xml'}