DeFinetti and the Development of Contemporary Foundations ofProbability and Statistics
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{'SignBlockName': 'Alicia Armstrong', 'PO_EMAI': 'aarmstro@nsf.gov', 'PO_PHON': '7032924743'}
Bruno de Finetti is widely regarded as the leading 20th century                 statistical thinker about Bayesian ideas.  A number of issues which             he raised are still matters of controversy among Bayesians:  e. g.              interval valued probabilities and related issues of imprecision and             indeterminacy; resiliency as a hallmark of the subjectivist                     substitute for objective chance.  De Finetti's work played a critical           role in the development of work in this area primarily through the              intermediary of L. J. Savage in the 1950's and later through                    translations of several of his works by Kyburg and Smokler in the               1960's.  Professor Jeffrey, with several Italian collaborators, has             completed an English language translation of de Finetti's early                 seminal work, "Probabilismo," or "Critical Essay on the Theory of               Probability and on the Value of Science" (1931).  Under this grant              Professor Jeffrey will prepare a long interpretive/critical essay               outlining the importance of "Probabilismo" and relating it to the               development of contemporary developments in subjective probability.                                                                                             This 1931 study is a detailed philosophical exposition of the                   probabilistic epistemology that motivated de Finetti's work on the              foundations of probability and statistics over the next                         half-century.  It presents his subjectivism in the framework of a               close critical survey of other views, carefully qualifying the                  relationship of his position to other contemporary philosophical                stances: pragmatism, positivism, etc.  It is of considerable                    systematic and historical interest, e.g., for its treatment of such             topics as resiliency, objectivity, and indeterminacy vs. inaccuracy             of probability judgements, and for the extreme projectivism on which            de Finetti takes his stand.  Professor Jeffrey's critical essay will            place de Finetti's views in a much needed historical and                        philosophical perspective.  His essay coupled with the English                  translation of "Probabilismo" promise to be of great interest within            the philosophy of science and statistics communities.
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{'Code': '1353', 'Text': 'Hist & Philosophy of SET'}
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