Production Based Asset Pricing
{'Code': '04050100', 'Directorate': {'Abbreviation': 'SBE', 'LongName': 'Direct For Social, Behav & Economic Scie'}, 'Division': {'Abbreviation': 'SES', 'LongName': 'Divn Of Social and Economic Sciences'}}
{'SignBlockName': 'Lynn A. Pollnow', 'PO_EMAI': None, 'PO_PHON': None}
Researchers in the area of finance have recently documented predictable         movements in stock prices and in risk premiums (rates of return above           risk-free interest rates) on stocks and bonds, and found that these             predictable movements correlate strongly with business cycles.                  However, a number of important questions remain unanswered including:           What causes these predictable movements?  Why are they correlated with          business cycles?  What do these facts tell us about the behavior of             stock markets and about business cycles?  The theoretical framework in          which these questions are currently addressed stresses the link between         stock returns and consumption.  Basically, it pays people to defer              consumption purchases and invest in the market when stock returns are           expected to be high.  However, consumption barely changes over the              business cycle.  The significant changes occur with respect to                  employment, investment, inventories, and production.  The purpose of            this project is to exploit the theoretical link between stock and bond          returns and producers, and develop a model which links stock and bond           returns to the important business cycle variables mentioned above.                                                                                              The recently documented, predictable movements in stock returns have            already been used to argue that the stock market is "inefficient" or            that it overreacts to small events and rumors, and that, hence,                 regulatory changes are needed.  But, at this point we do not know what          kind of predictable movements in stock                                          prices actually do make sense within the context of a well                      functioning market and, thus, it is impossible to assess the                    validity of this argument.  This project is important because it                will shed some light on this issue.
{'FirstName': 'John', 'LastName': 'Cochrane', 'PI_MID_INIT': 'H', 'PI_SUFX_NAME': None, 'PI_FULL_NAME': 'John H Cochrane', 'EmailAddress': 'john.cochrane@gsb.uchicago.edu', 'NSF_ID': '000313493', 'StartDate': '08/01/1988', 'EndDate': None, 'RoleCode': 'Principal Investigator'}
{'Name': 'National Opinion Research Center', 'CityName': 'CHICAGO', 'ZipCode': '606035713', 'PhoneNumber': '7732566000', 'StreetAddress': '55 E MONROE ST', 'StreetAddress2': None, 'CountryName': 'United States', 'StateName': 'Illinois', 'StateCode': 'IL', 'CONGRESSDISTRICT': '07', 'CONGRESS_DISTRICT_ORG': 'IL07', 'ORG_UEI_NUM': 'MPYFY5UMSDP4', 'ORG_LGL_BUS_NAME': 'NATIONAL OPINION RESEARCH CENTER', 'ORG_PRNT_UEI_NUM': 'MPYFY5UMSDP4'}
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{'Code': '1320', 'Text': 'Economics'}
{'url': 'https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/download?DownloadFileName=1988&All=true', 'xml': '8809912.xml'}