Earthquake Recurrence Analysis:  Micro-Scale Diffusion      Models of Stress Evolution Along a Fault
{'Code': '07030000', 'Directorate': {'Abbreviation': 'ENG', 'LongName': 'Directorate For Engineering'}, 'Division': {'Abbreviation': 'CMMI', 'LongName': 'Div Of Civil, Mechanical, & Manufact Inn'}}
{'SignBlockName': 'Clifford J. Astill', 'PO_EMAI': None, 'PO_PHON': None}
This award is made according to the provision in AD/ENG Bulletin \no.           85-25, "Expedited Awards for Novel Research."                                                                                                                   This research program will explore a new concept which promises to be a         major step forward in the engineering assessment of seismic hazard.             This concept concerns a new approach to modelling the accumulation and          release of stress on a fault, that is, to modelling the generation of           seismic waves.                                                                                                                                                  Stochastic earthquake recurrence models provide key information on              future seismic events, namely location, magnitude and time of                   occurrence.  The aim of this research program is to develop more                realistic physically-based engineering recurrence models.  The                  feasibility and utility of new diffusion (Markov) random field models of        stress evolution along a fault in both time and space will be explored.         Specific analysis techniques to be investigated include generalization          of diffusion process results to estimate key recurrence statistics -            event times, sizes, and locations from simple spatial characteristics           such as slip rates and the scales of spatial and temporal fluctuations          in material properties.                                                                                                                                         The principal investigator is internationally recognized for his                research in probabilistic structural engineering, and he is                     exceptionally well qualified to undertake this exploratory research             program.  In addition to the academic excellence of his research, he            also participates actively in the implementation of this research,              especially with regard to seismic hazard assessment for nuclear power           plants.  This one-year investigation, if successful, will provide a new         and important tool for seismic hazard assessment.
[{'FirstName': 'Steven', 'LastName': 'Winterstein', 'PI_MID_INIT': 'R', 'PI_SUFX_NAME': None, 'PI_FULL_NAME': 'Steven R Winterstein', 'EmailAddress': None, 'NSF_ID': '000218138', 'StartDate': '12/15/1986', 'EndDate': None, 'RoleCode': 'Co-Principal Investigator'}, {'FirstName': 'C. Allin', 'LastName': 'Cornell', 'PI_MID_INIT': None, 'PI_SUFX_NAME': None, 'PI_FULL_NAME': 'C. Allin Cornell', 'EmailAddress': 'cornell@ce.stanford.edu', 'NSF_ID': '000400556', 'StartDate': '12/15/1986', 'EndDate': None, 'RoleCode': 'Principal Investigator'}]
{'Name': 'Stanford University', 'CityName': 'STANFORD', 'ZipCode': '943052004', 'PhoneNumber': '6507232300', 'StreetAddress': '450 JANE STANFORD WAY', 'StreetAddress2': None, 'CountryName': 'United States', 'StateName': 'California', 'StateCode': 'CA', 'CONGRESSDISTRICT': '16', 'CONGRESS_DISTRICT_ORG': 'CA16', 'ORG_UEI_NUM': 'HJD6G4D6TJY5', 'ORG_LGL_BUS_NAME': 'THE LELAND STANFORD JUNIOR UNIVERSITY', 'ORG_PRNT_UEI_NUM': None}
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{'Code': '1496', 'Text': 'GEOTECHNICAL II'}
{'url': 'https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/download?DownloadFileName=1986&All=true', 'xml': '8617227.xml'}