The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle
{'Code': '04050100', 'Directorate': {'Abbreviation': 'SBE', 'LongName': 'Direct For Social, Behav & Economic Scie'}, 'Division': {'Abbreviation': 'SES', 'LongName': 'Divn Of Social and Economic Sciences'}}
{'SignBlockName': 'Robin A. Cantor', 'PO_EMAI': None, 'PO_PHON': None}
This project analyzes the correlation between seasonal variations in            macroeconomic variables and the business cycle.  There is a set of              stylized facts about macroeconomic variables that collectively                  constitute what is called the business cycle.  These facts include the          tendency of output movements across broadly defined sectors in the              economy to move together.  For example, there is an observed                    correlation between growth in the money supply and output.  Labor               productivity moves in a decidedly procyclical manner, as does                   volatility in production, and purchase of consumer durables.                    Professor Miron has shown that much of the variation in the above               variables can be explained by seasonal fluctuation, and an important            contribution of this project is the ammassing of empirical evidence             that these fluctuations display the same kind of variation as the               business cycle.                                                                                                                                                 There is no strong reason to believe that the seasonal cycle and the            business cycle might behave in a similar fashion.  Intuitively there            seems to be no theoretical connection between sources of seasonal               variation (such as weather) in output and the business cycle.                   However, previous empirical studies by Professor Miron have shown that          a large percentage of variation in output can be explained by                   seasonality.  This is a quite important finding in that variation due           to seasonality is easily predicted.  For example, there are likely to           be fewer housing starts during the winter than in spring or summer.  A          connection between the business cycle and seasonal variation is very            important because variation due to seasonal changes is virtually                devoid of uncertainty, whereas models of the business cycle                     incorporate a high degree of uncertainty.  A correlation between the            two could be a valuable tool for making correct economic policy.                                                                                                Technically, Professor Miron examines several analytical paradigms              which characterize business cycles.  In one framework aggregate                 fluctuations are seen as collectively rational responses of producers           and consumers to technological opportunities which vary across                  seasons.  Another model analyzes seasonal fluctuations as coordination          problems arising from synergies in the timing of economic activity              across agents.  Such phenomena as increasing returns to scale in the            short run, externalities associated with imperfect competition, and             other problems of timing in production and consumption might cause              economic activity to be more volatile in some seasons than in others.
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{'Code': '1320', 'Text': 'Economics'}
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