Earthquake Likelihood
{'Code': '06030204', 'Directorate': {'Abbreviation': 'GEO', 'LongName': 'Directorate For Geosciences'}, 'Division': {'Abbreviation': 'EAR', 'LongName': 'Division Of Earth Sciences'}}
{'SignBlockName': 'James H. Whitcomb', 'PO_EMAI': None, 'PO_PHON': None}
Earthquakes occur in clusters.  This fact provides                         fundamental information on the rupture process, and the                         relationship between earthquakes and stress.  It also provides the              most useful method presently available for earthquake prediction.                                                                                               We plan to quantify the tendency for earthquakes to cluster by                  extending probabilistic models of earthquake occurrence, including              stress as a variable.  Short term models by Jones (1985) and Kagan              and Knopoff (1987) successfully represent the immense increase and              rapid decay of seismic risk following a moderate earthquake in                  California.  Extending the relationship to larger events have been              recorded in California.  Thus, we would model Chinese, Japanese,                and global earthquake catalogs to quantify the triggering                       probabilities of large events, and to understand regional                       variations in clustering.                                                                                                                                       We would also generalize present short term and long term                       statistical models to include stress as a variable.  By so doing                we hope to integrate the long and short term models, so that                    quantitative assessments of earthquake risk can include tectonic                setting, strain rate, location, and focal mechanism of previous                 earthquakes.
{'FirstName': 'David', 'LastName': 'Jackson', 'PI_MID_INIT': 'D', 'PI_SUFX_NAME': None, 'PI_FULL_NAME': 'David D Jackson', 'EmailAddress': 'david.d.jackson@ucla.edu', 'NSF_ID': '000448705', 'StartDate': '06/15/1988', 'EndDate': None, 'RoleCode': 'Principal Investigator'}
{'Name': 'University of California-Los Angeles', 'CityName': 'LOS ANGELES', 'ZipCode': '900244200', 'PhoneNumber': '3107940102', 'StreetAddress': '10889 WILSHIRE BLVD STE 700', 'StreetAddress2': None, 'CountryName': 'United States', 'StateName': 'California', 'StateCode': 'CA', 'CONGRESSDISTRICT': '36', 'CONGRESS_DISTRICT_ORG': 'CA36', 'ORG_UEI_NUM': 'RN64EPNH8JC6', 'ORG_LGL_BUS_NAME': 'UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, LOS ANGELES', 'ORG_PRNT_UEI_NUM': None}
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[{'Code': '1574', 'Text': 'Geophysics'}, {'Code': '9120', 'Text': 'CROSS-DIRECTORATE PROGRAMS'}]
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