Incorporating Age into the Geographical Analysis of TemporalChange in Migration
{'Code': '04040400', 'Directorate': {'Abbreviation': 'SBE', 'LongName': 'Direct For Social, Behav & Economic Scie'}, 'Division': {'Abbreviation': 'BCS', 'LongName': 'Division Of Behavioral and Cognitive Sci'}}
{'SignBlockName': 'Thomas Baerwald', 'PO_EMAI': None, 'PO_PHON': None}
Striking changes in American population movements in the 1970s and         1980s have attracted considerable attention to the different factors            that affect which regions increase population through migration and             which regions suffer net losses through residential relocation.                 Especially significant have been the aging of different age-related             cohorts of the population.  Because people are much more likely to              change their residences at certain ages than at others, the movement of         larger and smaller groups into critical age periods has alternately             increased and lessened the numbers of migrants in the nation as a whole         and in subnational regions.  At the same time, differential economic            growth and changing perceptions of different regions have also affected         movements of people.  Scholars from various disciplines have examined           different aspects of these changes, with demographers identifying               regularities in migratory patterns that often are obscured in aggregate         data sources, economists focusing on the development of behavioral              models to highlight how economic factors influence individual                   decisions, and geographers analyzing how the flows of people between            regions change over time.                                                            This project will continue efforts to integrate the insights               generated in these disciplines by exploring how locational, economic,           and age-related aspects of migration patterns change together over              time.  The project will adapt a geographic version of a technique               developed in economics called "shift-share analysis" to explain how             much of the total net migration for a region can be attributed to               factors of population change for the nation as a whole, how much to             factors related to changing levels of movement in other regions, and            how much to factors related to the relative attractiveness of the               region itself.  The project will be conducted in three phases.                  In the first phase, adaptation of shift-share analytic techniques will          continue in order to distinguish the impacts of different regional age          structures from other factors that influence migration patterns.  In            the second phase, the adapted procedure will be used to analyze U.S.            migration flows from the late 1950s into the 1980s.  These analyses             will more clearly identify the impacts on migration of economic change          (such as the growing importance of service and office-based activities          and the energy crises of the 1970s), the changing age-composition of            the population (such as the maturing of the massive "baby boom"                 generation and the increase in the number of Americans aged 55 and up),         and the changing perceptions of different geographic locales (such as           "Sunbelt" amenity areas and settlements outside metropolitan areas).            The third phase of the research will examine how effective the adapted          shift-share procedure is in explaining migratory behavior, and it will          explore how it might be further adapted to increase the reliability of          regional population projections.                                                     This project will be beneficial in two major ways.  First, its             empirical investigation of the forces affecting the migration of people         between different regions will advance understandings of the dynamics           of U.S. population movement and provide decision-makers with better             means of assessing the impacts of current and proposed policies.                Second, theoretical understandings will be increased (a) by determining         how effective the modified shift-share technique can be as a                    means of distinguishing between various forces affecting population             movement, (b) by determining the stability of certain factors affecting         migration and therefore how current population data must be in order            for them to be useful for certain types of analyses, and (c) by                 identifying other types of approaches that might be used to improve             population projections.
{'FirstName': 'David', 'LastName': 'Plane', 'PI_MID_INIT': 'A', 'PI_SUFX_NAME': None, 'PI_FULL_NAME': 'David A Plane', 'EmailAddress': 'plane@email.arizona.edu', 'NSF_ID': '000157459', 'StartDate': '08/01/1988', 'EndDate': None, 'RoleCode': 'Principal Investigator'}
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{'Code': '135200', 'Text': 'Geography and Spatial Sciences'}
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