Studies in Monetary Economics
{'Code': '04050100', 'Directorate': {'Abbreviation': 'SBE', 'LongName': 'Direct For Social, Behav & Economic Scie'}, 'Division': {'Abbreviation': 'SES', 'LongName': 'Divn Of Social and Economic Sciences'}}
{'SignBlockName': 'Daniel H. Newlon', 'PO_EMAI': None, 'PO_PHON': None}
This project continues work on important issues in the field of                 monetary economics and business cycle theory.  The project                      consists of four parts: 1) research on how well simple                          regularities or laws captured by the quantity theory of money can               account for movements in prices, exchange rates and interest                    rates; 2) development of a theory for explaining the large                      observed differences between movements in asset prices and                      movements in their associated fundamentals; 3)  estimating the                  fraction of output variability that can be attributed to monetary               as opposed to real disturbances; and 4) estimating the social                   cost of preventable economic instability.                                                                                                                       Previous work by the investigator demonstrated that there was a                 remarkably stable, simple relationship between an economy's money               supply, its long run inflation rate and the average level of                    nominal interest rates.  Yet so many other forces impinge on                    prices and interest rates in the short run that agreement on                    these long run average relationships imply virtually nothing                    about immediate questions of macroeconomic policy.  This project                builds on this past work by extending the study of long run                     regularities to include exchange rates and by studying the                      "residuals," the movements in prices, interest rates and exchange               rates that are unexplained by the economy's money supply.  This                 work should provide important new insights into the role played                 by money in the macro-economy.                                                                                                                                  The investigator relates the observation that interest rates are                much more variable in the short run than predicted by the long                  term relationship between money and interest rates to a growing                 body of evidence that stock market prices are more variable than                predicted by movements in their fundamentals.  Why are financial                markets so volatile?  This project develops a new theory of                     "liquidity constrained" trading in financial markets that could                 explain these puzzles and also provides a framework for                         systematic study of such important events as the stock market                   crash in October, 1987.
{'FirstName': 'Robert', 'LastName': 'Lucas', 'PI_MID_INIT': 'E', 'PI_SUFX_NAME': 'Jr.', 'PI_FULL_NAME': 'Robert E Lucas', 'EmailAddress': None, 'NSF_ID': '000427029', 'StartDate': '07/15/1988', 'EndDate': None, 'RoleCode': 'Principal Investigator'}
{'Name': 'University of Chicago', 'CityName': 'CHICAGO', 'ZipCode': '606375418', 'PhoneNumber': '7737028669', 'StreetAddress': '5801 S ELLIS AVE', 'StreetAddress2': None, 'CountryName': 'United States', 'StateName': 'Illinois', 'StateCode': 'IL', 'CONGRESSDISTRICT': '01', 'CONGRESS_DISTRICT_ORG': 'IL01', 'ORG_UEI_NUM': 'ZUE9HKT2CLC9', 'ORG_LGL_BUS_NAME': 'UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO', 'ORG_PRNT_UEI_NUM': 'ZUE9HKT2CLC9'}
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{'Code': '1320', 'Text': 'Economics'}
{'url': 'https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/download?DownloadFileName=1988&All=true', 'xml': '8808835.xml'}