Models &amp; Tests of Political Business Cycles
{'Code': '04050100', 'Directorate': {'Abbreviation': 'SBE', 'LongName': 'Direct For Social, Behav & Economic Scie'}, 'Division': {'Abbreviation': 'SES', 'LongName': 'Divn Of Social and Economic Sciences'}}
{'SignBlockName': 'Daniel H. Newlon', 'PO_EMAI': None, 'PO_PHON': None}
Despite some evidence of both partisan cycles (cycles in which                  political incumbents pursue partisan economic policies) and                     electoral cycles (in which incumbent parties manipulate the                     economy to improve the prospect of reelection), satisfactory                    theoretical models consistent with this evidence have not been                  developed.  This two-year project develops and tests such models,               concentrating on reconciling the partisan and electoral models                  and on resolving the inconclusiveness of previous tests.                                                                                                        More specifically, the project (1) develops and simulates a                     simple stochastic model of an economy in which gents are                        rational, markets are efficient, but information is incomplete,                 where an incumbent government with given preferences over                       inflation and unemployment can generate stochastic business                     cycles; (2) extends this model to account for partisan cycles by                introducing a second party, elections, and heterogeneous voters;                (3) tests the partisan model against observed policies, central                 macrovariables, and micro-level voter behavior; (4) extends the                 partisan model to include a forward-looking incumbent party which               induces electoral cycles to signal its preferences so as to                     increase the probability of reelection; (5) explores the natures                of the partisan equilibrium with electoral cycles; and (6) tests                the synthesized partisan electoral model against data for the                   United States (both pre and post-World War II) and for other                    countries with fixed electoral terms.
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{'Name': 'University of Oregon Eugene', 'CityName': 'EUGENE', 'ZipCode': '974031905', 'PhoneNumber': '5413465131', 'StreetAddress': '1776 E 13TH AVE', 'StreetAddress2': None, 'CountryName': 'United States', 'StateName': 'Oregon', 'StateCode': 'OR', 'CONGRESSDISTRICT': '04', 'CONGRESS_DISTRICT_ORG': 'OR04', 'ORG_UEI_NUM': 'Z3FGN9MF92U2', 'ORG_LGL_BUS_NAME': 'UNIVERSITY OF OREGON', 'ORG_PRNT_UEI_NUM': 'Z3FGN9MF92U2'}
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{'Code': '1320', 'Text': 'Economics'}
{'url': 'https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/download?DownloadFileName=1987&All=true', 'xml': '8721221.xml'}