Crises, Realism, and War, 1816-1980
{'Code': '04050200', 'Directorate': {'Abbreviation': 'SBE', 'LongName': 'Direct For Social, Behav & Economic Scie'}, 'Division': {'Abbreviation': 'SES', 'LongName': 'Divn Of Social and Economic Sciences'}}
{'SignBlockName': 'Frank P. Scioli  Jr.'}
This research is part of an ongoing investigation of the actions and            interactions of nations in disputes that reach the crisis level, that           is when the threat of war is present.  The purpose of the investigation         is to develop a better understanding of what types of actions, or               bargaining strategies, are associated with the outbreak of war and what         types are most effective in resolving crises without resort to war.             The study also investigates what effects previous crisis experiences            are likely to have on the bargaining strategies chosen by statesmen             when they find their states engaged in successive crises with the same          adversary.  This section focuses particularly on the Middle East and            U.S. - Soviet Crises.                                                                                                                                           The researcher employs a random sample of forty crises occurring                between 1816 to 1980.  For each of these crises, diplomatic histories           and press accounts have been used to construct verbal chronologies of           the actions of the participants.  The verbal chronologies, in turn,             have been converted into machine readable descriptions that may be              analyzed.  This facilitates classifying the crises according to                 distinct behavioral types, which are based on the patterns of conflict          escalation-deescalation and reciprocity shown in the actions of the             participants.  Then it becomes possible to consider which behavioral            types are most, or least, war-prone, and what conditions are most               likely to produce those types.  It is also possible to analyze the              actions and reactions of states as they use different bargaining                strategies in their attempts to influence the other side in the course          of the crisis.  This facilitates the search for answers to questions            regarding which bargaining strategies are most often associated with            war outcomes, and which are most likely to allow statesmen to avoid war         without having to pay the price of submission to the other side.                                                                                                The research completed to date suggests that statesmen tend to adopt a          realpolitik approach to crisis bargaining that prescribes the use of            coercive tactics and a strong demonstration of resolve.  There is also          evidence that, particularly among states that are evenly matched in             power, the use of escalating coercive tactics is associated with war            outcomes.  In addition, there is some indication that realpolitik               reasoning is applied to the "lessons" that statesmen draw from previous         crisis experiences and that this tends to make each successive crisis           more dangerous.  Preliminary findings also suggest that a                       "reciprocating" strategy combining tit-for-tat responses with offers to         cooperate may be the most effective overall crisis bargaining strategy.         The investigation will take a more thorough and rigorous look at the            validity of these preliminary findings as well as a range of other              questions associated with the behavior of states in crises.
{'FirstName': 'Russell', 'LastName': 'Leng', 'EmailAddress': 'leng@middlebury.edu', 'StartDate': '01/15/1989', 'EndDate': None, 'RoleCode': 'Principal Investigator'}
{'Name': 'Middlebury College', 'CityName': 'MIDDLEBURY', 'ZipCode': '057536000', 'PhoneNumber': '8024435000', 'StreetAddress': '14 OLD CHAPEL ROAD', 'CountryName': 'United States', 'StateName': 'Vermont', 'StateCode': 'VT'}
{'Code': '9120', 'Text': 'CROSS-DIRECTORATE PROGRAMS'}
{'url': 'https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/download?DownloadFileName=1988&All=true', 'xml': '8818927.xml'}