The Economic Analysis of Systems Subject to Changes in      Regime
{'Code': '04050100', 'Directorate': {'Abbreviation': 'SBE', 'LongName': 'Direct For Social, Behav & Economic Scie'}, 'Division': {'Abbreviation': 'SES', 'LongName': 'Divn Of Social and Economic Sciences'}}
{'SignBlockName': 'Lynn A. Pollnow', 'PO_EMAI': None, 'PO_PHON': None}
The purpose of this research is to explore a new approach to the                economic analysis of nonstationary time series data.  Most currently            available model specifications assume that optimal forecasts of                 economic events are linear functions of past observations.  By                  contrast, the model developed in this project is nonlinear in the data.         The nonlinearity arises from the hypothesis that the process governing          important economic variables are occasionally subject to discrete,              dramatic changes in regime.  Despite its nonlinear nature, the model is         shown to be completely tractable for many theoretical and empirical             rational-expectations applications.                                                                                                                             This research is important because the new model holds promise for a            number of interesting applications, among them;                                   (a) an alternative approach to characterizing the business cycle,             which may enable us to better forecast business fluctuations;                     (b) a more flexible tool for analyzing financial data, for example in         trying to identify and understand the dramatic fluctuations in the              stock market;                                                                     (c) a better approach for analyzing the effects of dramatic shifts in         public policy within a rigorous econometric framework.
{'FirstName': 'James', 'LastName': 'Hamilton', 'PI_MID_INIT': 'D', 'PI_SUFX_NAME': None, 'PI_FULL_NAME': 'James D Hamilton', 'EmailAddress': 'jhamilton@ucsd.edu', 'NSF_ID': '000417035', 'StartDate': '03/15/1988', 'EndDate': None, 'RoleCode': 'Principal Investigator'}
{'Name': 'University of Virginia Main Campus', 'CityName': 'CHARLOTTESVILLE', 'ZipCode': '229034833', 'PhoneNumber': '4349244270', 'StreetAddress': '1001 EMMET ST N', 'StreetAddress2': None, 'CountryName': 'United States', 'StateName': 'Virginia', 'StateCode': 'VA', 'CONGRESSDISTRICT': '05', 'CONGRESS_DISTRICT_ORG': 'VA05', 'ORG_UEI_NUM': 'JJG6HU8PA4S5', 'ORG_LGL_BUS_NAME': 'RECTOR & VISITORS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA', 'ORG_PRNT_UEI_NUM': None}
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{'Code': '1320', 'Text': 'Economics'}
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