Dispute Initiation and Escalation in International Politics
{'Code': '04050200', 'Directorate': {'Abbreviation': 'SBE', 'LongName': 'Direct For Social, Behav & Economic Scie'}, 'Division': {'Abbreviation': 'SES', 'LongName': 'Divn Of Social and Economic Sciences'}}
{'SignBlockName': 'Frank P. Scioli  Jr.', 'PO_EMAI': None, 'PO_PHON': None}
This research focuses on a topic of central importance in the                   field of international relations:  the initiation and escalation                of international conflicts.  The research assesses how domestic                 economic and political conditions, as well as international                     political and military ones, influence the decisions of policy                  makers to threaten and use military force.  Two phases in the                   process of escalation of force are analyzed:  1) the initial                    decision whether to confront an adversary directly and threaten                 him with force, and 2) after such a challenge, the decision                     whether to escalate the conflict and engage in sustained and                    large-scale use of military force.                                                                                                                              A theoretical model is developed for both phases and tested by                  means of statistical analysis 1) on a sample of 13 enduring                     international rivalries in which threats to use force were                      plausible, or did in fact occur, and 2) on the total set of 90                  cases of international deterrence crises between 1870 and 1985.                 A subset of cases, comprising some well-explained by the                        statistical analysis and some poorly explained, are examined in                 depth to assess the adequacy and limits of the statistical                      analysis.                                                                                                                                                       This research should help answer several kinds of questions                     important to the social-scientific understanding of international               relations such as:  are the influences on decisions to initiate a               conflict or crisis also central to explaining decisions to                      escalate international crises, or are the causes significantly                  different; how important are domestic economic and political                    conditions in explaining international conflict behavior.  Is a                 more aggressive and conflictual foreign policy often a response                 to internal problems and weaknesses; what is the relative                       importance of defensive vs. opportunistic and expansionary                      incentives in decisions to threaten and/or resort to the use of                 military force; how important is a reputation for firmness or                   conciliation in a previous crisis to the success of deterrence in               a new crisis.  The research promises to significantly enhance our               understanding of these topics.
{'FirstName': 'Bruce', 'LastName': 'Russett', 'PI_MID_INIT': 'M', 'PI_SUFX_NAME': None, 'PI_FULL_NAME': 'Bruce M Russett', 'EmailAddress': 'bruce.russett@yale.edu', 'NSF_ID': '000092426', 'StartDate': '07/01/1988', 'EndDate': None, 'RoleCode': 'Principal Investigator'}
{'Name': 'Yale University', 'CityName': 'NEW HAVEN', 'ZipCode': '065113572', 'PhoneNumber': '2037854689', 'StreetAddress': '150 MUNSON ST', 'StreetAddress2': None, 'CountryName': 'United States', 'StateName': 'Connecticut', 'StateCode': 'CT', 'CONGRESSDISTRICT': '03', 'CONGRESS_DISTRICT_ORG': 'CT03', 'ORG_UEI_NUM': 'FL6GV84CKN57', 'ORG_LGL_BUS_NAME': 'YALE UNIV', 'ORG_PRNT_UEI_NUM': 'FL6GV84CKN57'}
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{'Code': '1371', 'Text': 'Political Science'}
{'url': 'https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/download?DownloadFileName=1988&All=true', 'xml': '8810836.xml'}