Diffusion and Multiple Equilibria
{'Code': '04050100', 'Directorate': {'Abbreviation': 'SBE', 'LongName': 'Direct For Social, Behav & Economic Scie'}, 'Division': {'Abbreviation': 'SES', 'LongName': 'Divn Of Social and Economic Sciences'}}
{'SignBlockName': 'Daniel H. Newlon', 'PO_EMAI': None, 'PO_PHON': None}
The proposed research agenda consists of three broad parts.  The                first part involves a largely empirical investigation of the                    diffusion of technological innovations, and how this diffusion                  affects the aggregate behavior of output.  More specifically,  it               is concerned with explaining the time-series behavior of GNP in                 terms of the time path of innovations and the speed with which                  they are diffused.  This is expressed as a stochastic reduced-                  form equation relating current innovations in GNP to past                       innovations with various lags.  Cross-section country data on GNP               growth rates and innovation activity, for example, as measured                  by patent applications, are then used to estimate the parameters                of the equation.  The second part of the study consists of a                    theoretical development of three models regarding the adoption of               technological innovations by firms, and of the process of                       diffusion of technical knowledge.  The first of these models                    seeks to explain why bigger firms are usually the first to adopt                a new innovation.  The other two models deal with frictions in                  the spread of information, with an emphasis on personal contact.                The final part of the research involves an econometric                          investigation of issues arising from the presence of multiple                   equilibria.  In this setting, the parameters of preferences and                 technology generate a set of equilibria and then an outcome is                  chosen from this set.  The question at issue is how to estimate                 the Markov process for selection given that part of the movement                in equilibrium will be due to the presence of exogenous shocks.                                                                                                 This fundamental research bears in a very important way on the                  general topic of how shocks to technology impact on both long-                  term growth and on cyclical fluctuations.  The technological                    shocks, on which the research is focussed, are those that result                in permanent additions to our stock of knowledge.  Since  the                   stock is much too large for anyone to be familiar with, its                     diffusion will determine its effect on output, productivity,                    investment, and other aggregates.  It is the thesis of the                      investigator that such innovations occur largely at the firm                    level, and then spread throughout the economy in ways that                      despite their centrality  are still imperfectly understood.  Work               already completed and the further work projected by this                        proposal, constitutes frontier research on the topic, which is                  of critical importance in the modern theory of "endogenous                      growth", and in modern business cycle theory.
{'FirstName': 'Boyan', 'LastName': 'Jovanovic', 'PI_MID_INIT': None, 'PI_SUFX_NAME': None, 'PI_FULL_NAME': 'Boyan Jovanovic', 'EmailAddress': 'boyan.jovanovic@nyu.edu', 'PI_PHON': '2129988953', 'NSF_ID': '000242462', 'StartDate': '06/15/1989', 'EndDate': None, 'RoleCode': 'Principal Investigator'}
{'Name': 'New York University', 'CityName': 'NEW YORK', 'ZipCode': '100121019', 'PhoneNumber': '2129982121', 'StreetAddress': '70 WASHINGTON SQ S', 'StreetAddress2': None, 'CountryName': 'United States', 'StateName': 'New York', 'StateCode': 'NY', 'CONGRESSDISTRICT': '10', 'CONGRESS_DISTRICT_ORG': 'NY10', 'ORG_UEI_NUM': 'NX9PXMKW5KW8', 'ORG_LGL_BUS_NAME': 'NEW YORK UNIVERSITY', 'ORG_PRNT_UEI_NUM': 'NX9PXMKW5KW8'}
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{'Code': '1320', 'Text': 'Economics'}
{'url': 'https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/download?DownloadFileName=1988&All=true', 'xml': '8820796.xml'}