International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence
{'Code': '04050100', 'Directorate': {'Abbreviation': 'SBE', 'LongName': 'Direct For Social, Behav & Economic Scie'}, 'Division': {'Abbreviation': 'SES', 'LongName': 'Divn Of Social and Economic Sciences'}}
{'SignBlockName': 'Daniel H. Newlon', 'PO_EMAI': None, 'PO_PHON': None}
This project improves our understanding of international business               cycles.  It provides new insights into the reasons American national            output differs from fluctuations in Europe or Japan.  It explains the           relation between business cycles in different countries and between             cycles and the dynamics of aggregate trade within countries.                                                                                                    Dynamic stochastic equilibrium models have had considerable success             recently explaining fluctuations in, and correlations between variables         in single economies.  The theoretical contribution of this project              comes from developing multicountry dynamic stochastic models with               heterogeneous agents.  Most models of macrodynamics are based on a              representative agent paradigm, but this assumption does not make sense          for international economics because without heterogeneity across                countries there is no trade.  The project also introduces money                 into the model in order to examine the relation of the exchange                 rate to the behavior of money supplies and real variables.                                                                                                      The theoretical work is paralleled by a systematic study of                     international time series data, looking first at correlations between           detrended variables in particular countries, and second at correlations         between like variables in different countries.  Preliminary results             suggest that business cycles in different countries have many features          in common, but also point to a number of puzzles for the theory.  For           example, fluctuations in the net exports and output are negatively              correlated.  Consumption smoothing suggests exactly the opposite, as            consumers export when their incomes are high and import when they               are low.  The project determines whether or not this puzzle can be              explained by productivity-induced fluctuations in investment.
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{'Name': 'University of Minnesota Saint Paul', 'CityName': 'Minneapolis', 'ZipCode': '554552000', 'PhoneNumber': '6126252435', 'StreetAddress': '450 University Gateway', 'StreetAddress2': '200 Oak Street SE', 'CountryName': 'United States', 'StateName': 'Minnesota', 'StateCode': 'MN', 'CONGRESSDISTRICT': '05', 'CONGRESS_DISTRICT_ORG': 'MN05', 'ORG_UEI_NUM': None, 'ORG_LGL_BUS_NAME': None, 'ORG_PRNT_UEI_NUM': None}
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{'Code': '1320', 'Text': 'Economics'}
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