Interest Rates, Financial Markets and Economic Activity     During the Great Depression
{'Code': '04050100', 'Directorate': {'Abbreviation': 'SBE', 'LongName': 'Direct For Social, Behav & Economic Scie'}, 'Division': {'Abbreviation': 'SES', 'LongName': 'Divn Of Social and Economic Sciences'}}
{'SignBlockName': 'Daniel H. Newlon', 'PO_EMAI': None, 'PO_PHON': None}
The proposed research will investigate the interaction between                  the financial sector and the real economy of the United States                  during the 1930s.  The research will use data on the term                       structure of interest rates constructed in earlier work to                      examine the role of monetary and financial factors in the                       propagation of the Great Depression.                                                                                                                            The research can be divided into several related projects.  The                 first explores the severe deflation of 1930-32 and provides                     evidence that the deflation was anticipated.  This is followed by               an analysis of the impact of anticipated deflation.  The result                 is a new theory for the propagation of the Depression which                     states that anticipated deflation,  caused by contractionary                    monetary policy,  brought on both an investment collapse and a                  fall in consumption.  This,  in turn, caused bankruptcies and the               collapse of the banking system.                                                                                                                                 The second project studies the evolution of interest rates                      during the 1930s.  Bond yields contain substantial information                  about both the functioning of financial markets and the state of                the real economy.  By analyzing movements in the term structure,                one can make inferences about the causes of the length and depth                of the Depression and differentiate among the various theories                  for its causes.                                                                                                                                                 The final project examines the market for U.S. Government                       securities during the 1930s.  It will study both the methods of                 Treasury finance and issues related to the pricing of bonds and                 notes.                                                                                                                                                          Most of the current empirical work on the role of credit markets                in exacerbating fluctuations in real activity has been conducted                at the firm level and has focussed on the importance of credit                  constraints.  The proposed research is distinctive in that it                   examines the role of credit at the macro level using a large new                data set on the Great Depression.  Resolution of still lingering                debates over the nature and causes of the Great Depression has                  the potential for clarifying controversies on theory and policy                 in the present day.
{'FirstName': 'Stephen', 'LastName': 'Cecchetti', 'PI_MID_INIT': None, 'PI_SUFX_NAME': None, 'PI_FULL_NAME': 'Stephen Cecchetti', 'EmailAddress': 'cecchetti.1@osu.edu', 'NSF_ID': '000361570', 'StartDate': '06/01/1989', 'EndDate': None, 'RoleCode': 'Principal Investigator'}
{'Name': 'National Bureau of Economic Research Inc', 'CityName': 'CAMBRIDGE', 'ZipCode': '021385359', 'PhoneNumber': '6178683900', 'StreetAddress': '1050 MASSACHUSETTS AVE', 'StreetAddress2': None, 'CountryName': 'United States', 'StateName': 'Massachusetts', 'StateCode': 'MA', 'CONGRESSDISTRICT': '05', 'CONGRESS_DISTRICT_ORG': 'MA05', 'ORG_UEI_NUM': 'GT28BRBA2Q49', 'ORG_LGL_BUS_NAME': 'NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH INC', 'ORG_PRNT_UEI_NUM': None}
{'Name': None, 'CityName': None, 'StateCode': None, 'ZipCode': None, 'StreetAddress': None, 'CountryCode': None, 'CountryName': None, 'StateName': None, 'CountryFlag': None, 'CONGRESSDISTRICT': None, 'CONGRESS_DISTRICT_PERF': '""'}
{'Code': '1320', 'Text': 'Economics'}
{'url': 'https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/download?DownloadFileName=1988&All=true', 'xml': '8821796.xml'}