Ali Khamenei: Waye zai iya zama sabon jagoran addini na Iran?
Jita-jitar da ake ta yaɗa wa game da lafiyar jagoran Iran Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ta haifar da ce-ce-ku-ce da jan hankali kan ko me zai faru idan har rashin lafiyar ta yi tsanani ko kuma ya mutu.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei mai shekara 81 shi ne mai ƙarfin faɗa a ji a ɗaya daga cikin ƙasashe mafi ƙarfi a yankin Gabas Ta Tsakiya, kuma batun wanda zai gaje shi babban muhimmin al'amari ne ga Iran da yankin da kuma duniya. Yaya ake zaɓen jagoran Iran? Wanda ke riƙe da matsayin (Ayatollah Khamenei shi ne na biyu tun juyin juya halin Iran a 1979) majalisar manyan malamai ce ta mutum 88 ke zaɓensa. Iraniyawa ne ke zaɓen mambobinta duk bayan shekaru takwas, amma duk ɗan takara sai ya samu amincewar shura da ake kira Guardian Council. Kuma jagoran Iran ne kuma ke zaɓen mambobin majalisar ta mutum 12. Jagoran Iran yana da ƙarfin faɗa a ji a dukkanin manyan majalisun biyu na Iran. Kusan shekara 30 da suka gabata, Ali Khamenei ya tabbatar da ganin an zaɓi masu ra'ayin mazan jiya a majalisar waɗanda za su bi zaɓinsa na zaɓen wanda zai gaje shi. Zauren majalisar malamai da ke zaɓen jagoran Iran da kuma cire shi Da zarar an zaɓe shi, zai ci gaba da riƙe muƙamin jagoran Iran har mutuwa. Bisa kundin tsarin Iran, jagoran Iran dole ya kasance ayatollah, jagoran mabiya shi'a a ƙasar. Amma lokacin da aka zaɓi Ali Khamenei ba ayatollah ba ne, don haka an sauya dokar domin ba shi damar samun muƙamin. Don haka, akwai yiyuwar a sake sauya dokar, ya danganta da yanayin siyasar a lokacin zaɓen sabon jagoran Iran. Me yasa batun ke da muhimmanci? Jagoran Iran yana da cikakken iko a Iran. Shi ke da yanke magana ta ƙarshe kan duk wani muhimmin batu, kuma shi ke tsara manufofin ƙasar da kuma alaƙarta da ƙasashen waje. Iran ita ce babbar ƙasa ta ƴan shi'a a duniya kuma jagorancin Ali Khamenei ya yi ƙokarin faɗaɗa ƙarfin faɗa ajinta a Gabas Ta Tsakiya. Jagoran Iran shi ne ƙololuwar tsarin siyasar Iran Mutuwarsa ba wai za ta sauya yanayin tarihi a yankin ba ne, amma za ta iya sake haifar da wani yanayi a duniya. Saɓani tsakanin Iran da Amurka da Isra'ila, misali - ya ƙara sa Ayatollah Khamenei ƙyamatarsu duka - wanda ya haifar barazana na tsawon shekaru. Amma, yanayin wanda zai gaje shi dole ya kasance ya bi tafarkinsa. Wa zai iya zama jagoran Iran? Rarrabuwar kai a siyasar Iran za ta yi tasiri sosai wanda zai zama sabon jagora, amma babu wani mai ƙarfin da zai iya amfani da ƙarfi domin kaucewa rikici. Rashin samun goyon baya musamman kamar na wanda ya gabace shi, Ali Khamenei ya ci gaba da yin tasirinsa ta hanyar gina mutanensa masu masa biyayya, yawancinsu daga dakarun juyin juya hali. Akwai yiyuwar dakarun za su yi ƙoƙarin daƙile duk wani ɗan takarar da suke ganin ba su ra'ayinsa kafin zaɓen sabon jagoran Iran. Ko da yake, akwai jita-jitar cewa akwai jerin sunaye da babu wanda ya sani - kuma babu wanda ya yi iƙirarin sanin waɗanda ke cikin sunayen. Wasu bayanai sun ce Ali Khamenei ya fi ƙaunar ɗansa Mojtaba ya gaje shi ko kuma shugaban shari'a na ƙasar Ebrahim Raisi. Wanda Raisi ya gada, Sadeq Larijani, da kuma shugaban Iran mai ci Hassan Rouhani, ana tunanin suna da ra'ayin zama sabon jagoran Iran. Wane ne Mojtaba Khamenei? Ɗan jagoran Iran mai shekara 51 an haife shi a garin malamai na Mashhad kuma kamar mahaifinsa shi ma malami ne. Mojtaba ya ja hankali ne a lokacin da aka murƙushe masu zanga-zangar da ta biyo bayan zaɓen shugaban ƙasa mai cike da ce-ce-ku-ce a 2009. Ana tunanin shi ya jagoranci murƙushe masu zanga-zangar. Ko da yake Ali Khamenei ba sarki ba ne ba zai iya naɗa ɗansa ba, Mojtaba yana da ƙarfi a tsakanin muƙarabban mahaifinsa, da suka hada har da ofishin jagoran Iran. Idan har ya samu goyon bayan dakarun juyin juya hali, za su iya yin tasiri wajen zaɓensa. Wane ne Ebrahim Raisi? Mai shekara 60 shi ma a Mashhad aka haife shi. An fi ganin shi zai gaji Ayatollah Khamenei. Bai taɓa musanta jita-jita ba kan burinsa na zama jagoran Iran kuma dukkanin take-takensa sun nuna cewa yana gina kansa ne domin muƙamin. Ya riƙe muƙamai da dama a shari'a kuma shi ne mataimakin shugaban majalisar malamai. Sai dai batun take haƙƙin ɗan adam kan Raisi, musamman rawar da ya taka kan zartar da hukuncin kisa kan fursunoni a 1988, ya nuna ba zai samu goyon bayan jama'a ba. Amma duk da shan kaye a zaɓen shugaban ƙasa na 2017, jagoran Iran ya zaɓe shi shugaban ɓangaren shari'ar ƙasar. Tun lokacin da ya hau mukamin, ya ƙaddamar da abin da ya kira "yaƙi da rashawa". Kamar Ali Khamenei, Raisi yana da shakku kan yarjejeniyar nukiliyar Iran ta 2015 kuma yana da kusanci da dakarun Juyin Juya Hali.