Me Biden zai yi a kan Iran bayan tafiyar Trump?
Zaɓaɓɓen Shugaban Amurka Joe Biden ya ce tsarin ƙasashen "kamar yana ta wargajewa."
Ya yi alƙawarin kare martabar Amurka kuma ya ce cikin gaggawa, "Babu lokacin yin hasara," kamar yadda ya rubuta a wata mujallar harkokin ƙasashen waje a farkon wannan shekarar. Daga cikin jerin abubuwan da zai yi akwai alƙawalin dawo da yarjejeniyar nukiliyar Iran ta 2015 ta JCPOA - ɗaya daga cikin nasarorin da ake muhawarar Obama ya samu wanda Trump ya gada. Tun ficewa daga yarjejeniyar a watan Mayun 2018, Shugaba Trump ya yi ta yin ƙoƙarinsa na rusa ta. Amma duk da fiye da shekaru biyu na manufofin Shugaba Trump na "matsin lamba" kan Iran, Jamhuriyar Musuluncin ba ta yi ƙasa a gwiwa ba kuma ta kusa cimma fasahar da take buƙata don ƙera makamin nukiliya fiye da yadda ta yi lokacin da Amurka ta fara suka. Shin Joe Biden, wanda za a rantsar a watan Janairu, zai dawo da matsayin Amurka yadda take? Ganin lokaci na tafiya da kuma rarrabuwar kan da aka samu a yanayin siyasar Amurka, ko zai iya? Tsarin a bayyana yake," a cewar Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, wani masanin harkokin Iran a wata cibiyar harkokin Amurka da ke London RUSI. Ba ja da baya Yana da kyau a bayyana cewa akwai manyan ƙalubale. Takunkumai masu sarƙaƙiya da Amurka ta ƙaƙaba a cikin shekaru biyu da suka gabata zai ba Biden damarmaki idan ya har yana so. Zuwa yanzu ya yi magana ne kawai kan yarjejeniyar Iran ta JCPOA na kiyaye yarjejeniyar. Iran ta dawo da aikin shirin nukiliyarta domin martani ga takunkuman Donald Trump Ya rubuta a watan Janairu cewa "dole ne gwamnatin Tehran ta mutunta ƙa'idojin." Amma wannan ya riga ya zama ƙalubale. Bayan ficewar Donald Trump daga yarjejeniyar, Iran ta fara jan baya ga alƙawuranta. A rahotonta na ƙarshen shekara, Hukumar Makamashi Ta Duniya ta ce Iran ta samu kusan adadi 12 na arzikin makamashin uranium da aka amince ƙarƙashin yarjejeniyar. Ta fara inganta makamashinta na uranium fiye da kashi 3.67 da aka amince a yarjejeniyar. Ana amfani da uranium don dalilai da yawa masu alaƙa da makaman nukiliya - amma a mafi girman yanayi (wanda Iran ba ta kusa da shi, kuma ba a sani ba) ana iya amfani da shi don samar da bom na nukiliya, saboda haka babbar damuwa ce. Duk da cewa waɗannan batutuwa ne masu sauƙi da za a iya magance su - jami'an Iran ɗin sun sha nanata cewa abubuwan da suke yi da suka saɓa "za a iya sauyawa" - zurfafa binciken Iran da ci gaban da aka samu abu ne da ba za ta iya watsi da shi ba. "Ba za mu koma baya ba," in ji Ali Asghar Soltaniehm jakadan Iran a hukumar makamashi ta IAEA. Matsin lambar siyasa Amma Iran, wacce ta jure wa guguwar Trump, tana da nata buƙatun. Jami'ai sun ce cire takunkumin ba zai isa ba. Iran na sa ran za a biya ta diyyar shekaru biyu da rabi na gurguntar da tattalin arzikinta. Darajar Kudin Iran ta fadi sosai da kuma karuwar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki Ganin cewa zaɓen shugaban kasar Iran na gabatowa a watan Yunin shekara mai zuwa, masu ra'ayin kawo sauyi da masu tsattsauran ra'ayi sun fara cacar-baki da fafutukar neman matsayi. Tattalin arzikin Iran ya ƙara taɓarɓarewa lokacin Shugaba Hassan Rouhani. Ko Joe Biden zai iya yi wa Rouhani tasiri ta hanyar ɗage takunkumai? Nasser Hadian-Jazy, farfesan kimiyyar siyasa a Jami'ar Tehran ya ce ya kamata Joe Biden ya bayyana ƙudirorinsa kafin rantsar da shi. "Saƙon da ke yawo cewa zai koma yarjejeniyar JCPOA ta nukiyar Iran ba tare da wani sharaɗi ba kuma cikin hanzari," a cewarsa "Ya isa haka" Kasa cimma haka, a cewarsa, zai buɗe kofa ga masu "adawa" a Iran da Amurka da kuma yankin su dagula lamurra. Shugaba Hassan Rouhani ya ce Iran za ta yi amfani da dukkanin damarmakinta kan rage radadin takunkuman Amurka Sabbin aminai Tabbas, yarjejeniyar JCPOA ba lamari ne na alaƙa ba. Sauran masu daukar nauyin yarjejeniyar na duniya - Rasha da China da Faransa da Birtaniya da Jamus haɗi da Tarayyar Turai - duk ko ta wace hanya suna da buri kan makomarta. Masu tallafawa na ƙasashen Turai musamman sun damu sosai don ganin Amurka ta ƙara himma ga samun nasarar yarjejeniyar. Birtaniya da Faransa da Jamus, da ake kira 'E3' sun yi ƙoƙarin kare yarjejeniyar lokacin mulkin Trump kuma yanzu za su iya taka muhimmiyar rawa wajen tabbatar da ganin Amurka ta dawo. Sauran manyan kasashen duniya sun yi kokarin tabbatar da dorewar yarjejeniyar Iran Amma a London da Paris da Berlin, suna ganin sauyin da aka samu yana da wahala a iya dawo wa kan asalin yarjejeniyar. "Ko E3 suna bibiyar sake duba yarjejeniyar ta JCPOA," in ji Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi ta Rusi. Duk wata yarjejeniya, a cewarta za ta nemi rufe ayyukan Iran a yankin da ci gaban aikinta na makaman ƙare dangi da kuma rage shirinta na bunkasa makamin nukiliya yayin da wa'adin sharuɗɗan yarjejeniyar ke dab kawowa ƙarshe. Gaskiyar cewa wasu ƙasashen yankin da ke adawa da yarjejeniyar JCPOA - kamar Isra'ila da Hadaddiyar Daular Larabawa (UAE) da Bahrain - sun sanya hannu a kwanan nan na inganta huldarsu a yarjejeniyoyin gwamnatin Trump ta ɗauki nauyi da kuma karfafa su sosai zai sa ya yi wuya a yi watsi da buƙatunsu. "Idan za ku tattauna batun tsaron da ya shafe mu, dole mu kasance a wurin," kamar yadda jakadan UAE a Washington, Yousef al-Otaiba, ya shaida wa mahalarta taron ƙara wa juna sani da cibiyar nazarin harkokin tsaro ta Jami'ar Tel Aviv ta shirya. Haka ma daraktan cibiyar ta Isra'ila Amos Yadlin ya jaddada inda ya ce, "Isra'ila na son ta kasance a teburin tattaunawa da aminanmu a Gabas Ta Tsakiya." Iran ita ke da babban makamin ƙare dangi a yankin Gabas Ta tsakiya A nasa bangaren, Sarki Salman na Saudiyya ya yi kira da cewa "a yanke shawarar kasashen duniya mai tsauri kan Iran." Farfaɗo da JCPOA tare da suararen ra'ayoyin masu tsoro da fargaba zai zama wani babban ƙalubale ga Joe Biden. Kuma kada mu manta: wanda zai gada bai gama ba da saura. Kafofin yaɗa labaran Amurka sun ruwaito cewa Mista Trump a makon da ya gabata ya buƙaci manyan masu ba shi sharawa kan hanyoyin da ya kamata a kai wa cbiyar nukiliyar Iran hari, amma hakan bai samu ba Amma har yanzu yana bijerewa tsarin Amurka, inda yake ci gaba da nuna damuwa kan Iran ta hanyar ƙaƙaba mata sabbin takunkumai tun sanar da faɗuwarsa zabe tare da barazanar tsawwala takunkuman. Duk abin da zai yi tsakanin yanzu zuwa ƙarshen watan Janairu, manufar a bayyane take: mayar da komi ya kasance mai wahala ga Biden wajen gyara ɓarnar.