Trump ma guuleysan lahaa haddii maanta doorasho la qabto?
Madaxweynaha Mareykanka, Donald Trump, weli ma haystaa fursad uu ku guuleysto haddii doorasho maantaa la qabto? BBC ayaa khubarro weydiisay su'aashaas.
Donald Trump iyo Hillary Clinton Waxyaabo badan ayaa lagu qeexi karaa 12-kii bilood ee ka soo wareegatay markii Trump la doortay. Mr Trump ayaa guuleystay inkastoo seddex milyan oo cod uu ka hooseeyay Hillary Clinton. Markaa wixii ka dambeeyay, waxaa dhacay shaqo ka eryid, khilaafka ciyaaryahanada NFL iyo muranka joogtada ah ee Kuuriyada Waqooyi. Taageeradiisa ayaa hoos u dhacday, sidoo kale guddi gaar ah ayaa baarayo doorashadii uu Trump ku guuleystay. Balse taageerayaashiisa ayaa ku doodaya in koboca dhaqaalaha iyo xoojinta amniga xadka ay muujinayaan in ay ku saxnaayeen in ay ku khamaaraan in ay doortaan qof aan siyaasi ahayn. Hadaba Trump markale ma guuleysan doonaa, haddii maanta doorasho la qabto? Go'aanka 1aad: Trump dhib ayuu ku dhex jiraaa Ka dib markii dunida ay la kulatay guul aan la fileyn, bishii Nofembar ee 2016-kii, Mr Trump wuxuu farriin gacanta lagu qoray u diray Allan Lichtman. "Hambalyo - saadaal wanaagsan," ayuu qoray Trump. Qoraalkaas ayaa lagu daabacay wargeyska Washington Post, 23-kii Sebtembar, 2016-kii. Khabiirka ayaa saadaaliyay in Trump uu ku guulaysanayo doorashada Mareykanka, taas ayaana sabab u ahayd in Trump uu farriinta diro. Warbixin uu qoray Prof. Lichtman wuxuu ku sheegay in, Mr Trump uu ku wajahan yahay Aqalka Cad, inkastoo kubaro badan aysan sidaas ku fikirin. Sagaalkii doorasho ee ugu dambeeyay ee ka dhacay Mareykanka, si sax ah ayuu u saadaaliyay. Hadaba muxuu Mr Trump xilligan noqon karaa? "Waxaa jiro arrimo aan wanaagsanayn oo mihiim ah kuwaas oo lagu saadaalin karo guuldaradiisa," ayuu yiri Prof. Lichtman, oo wax ka dhiga jaamacadda American University. Macallimkan wuxuu isticmaalaa 13 "arrimood" oo uu ku saadaaliyo doorashada. Wuxuu diiradda saaraa xisbiga talada haya, dhaqaalaha, fadeexadda, jaaniska musharraxa iyo kuwa kale. Aad "ayey u adag tahay" in laga sii hor dhaco ka hadalka malaha doorashada, sida uu qabo Prof. Lichtman. Tusaale ahaan: mid ka mid ah "furayaashiisa" waa doorashooyiinka dhexe, oo aan weli la qaban. Laakiin, wuxuu sheegayaan in xaaladda madaxweynaha aysan wanaagsaneyn. Guul muhiim ah ma gaaarin, "fadeexadna way hareysay", inkastoo dhanka dhaqaalaha wanaag uu ka jiro. Mr Trump nafsad ahaantiisa ayaa fursadihiisa dhulka ku jiidaya, ayuu yiri. "qiimeynta ugu xun isaga ayaa isu geysanaya." Khabiirkan ayaa sidoo kale hoos u dhigay muhiimadda ay yeelan karaan dadka la tartami kara Trump. "Keliya mid ka mid ah 13 kayga arrimood ayaa ka hadla waxkastoo la xiriira musharraxa mucaaradka," ayuu yiri. Go'aanka 2aad: Trump wuu ka guuleysan karaa Clinton, balse musharrax kale oo dimuquraaadi ah kama adkaan karo Kooxda Trafalgar - oo ah shirkad yar oo ra'yi uruurin sameysa - waxay saadaaliyeen guusha "wayn" ee Trump uu gaaray. Hadaba sanad ka dib, sidee wax u dhici karaan? "Haddii tartankaa loogu noqdo sidii hore, uma malaynayo in ay jireyso su'aal cusub oo ka timaada," ayuu yiri Robert Cahaly, oo ah ninka ugu sareeya kooxdaas. "Trump wuu guuleysanayaa markale," ayuu hadalkiisa ku daray. Trump wuxuu cambaareeyay ciyaartoyda jilbaha dhulka dhigtay xilligii heesta calanka. Trafalgar Waxay 12 gobol ka eegayeen taageerada uu Trump leeyahay "Trump wuxuu weli sameynayaa in uu dadka ku dardar gelinayo sababihii ay u geeyeen Aqalka Cad," ayuu sheegay Mr Cahaly. Balse ka warran xiriirka Ruushka? Golaha gaarka ah waxay muujinayaan xiriirka madixii hore ee ololihii Trump? "Hillary sidoo kale xiriir ayey Ruushka la leedahay," ayuu yiri. Balse waxay qabaan in musharrax kale oo dimuquraadi ah uu ku guuleysan karo doorasho uu Trump kula tarmato. Go'aanka 3aad: Meesha haka saarin guul kale oo Trump uu gaaro Tan iyo 20-kii bishii Janaayo ee sanadkan, shirkadda Gallup waxay sameyneysaa ra'yi aruurin maalinle ah. Waxay shacabka waydiiyaan in markale Trump ay siinayaan shaqada. Tirada guud ma wanaagsana. Bishii June, taageerada Trump waxay ka hooseysay boqolkiiba 40. Bishii la soo dhaafay, waxay noqotay boqolkiiba 33. Laakiin, Frank Newport oo ah tafatiraha guud ee Gallup ayaa sheegay in uusan meesha ka saareyn saadaasha doorashada. "Waxaa suuragal ah in uu hoos u dhacayo, laakiin haddii aad eegto muuqaalka guud, tan iyo bishii Maarso, isbedel wayn ma jiro," ayuu yiri. Go'aanka 4aad: Dimuquraadiyiinta waxay u baahan yihiin qof gaar ah oo ka adkaada Trump Helmut Norpoth, oo ku taqasusay cilmiga siyaasadda - ayaa sidoo kale ka mid ahaa dadkii saadaaliyay guushii Trump ee 2016-kii. Ninkan oo macallim ka ah jaamacadda Stony Brook ee New York ayaa sheegay "Haddii aad eegto taageeradiisa, way hooseysaa." "Waa qiimeyntii ugu xumayd ee abid uu marxaladan oo kale lagu sameeyo qof madaxweyne ah. Waxay u muuqataa arrin waqti qaadatay. Laakiin markii hore ayeyba waqti ku qaadatay in uu guuleysto. "Waxaan ku khamaaraayaa in uu guuleysanayo markale," ayuu yiri. "Wuu ka adkaanayaa Hillary doorasho kale haddii la qabto" Si la mid ah Robert Cahaly oo ka tirsan kooxda Trafalgar, wuxuu sheegay in qof kale oo dimuquraadi ah uu haysto fursad wanaagsan. Balse ma garanayo qofka uu noqonayo midka ayuu