My Math Forum fictional roulette tactics

 Probability and Statistics Basic Probability and Statistics Math Forum

 February 10th, 2016, 04:00 AM #1 Newbie   Joined: Feb 2016 From: Norway Posts: 2 Thanks: 0 fictional roulette tactics So there's a roulette in this game I'm playing for ingame currency only. There is no way to get currency in the first place by buying with real life money so don't you worry about that. Basically it's just a harmless minigame. So here's the roulette, very simple. You have 40% chance of winning and you can bet whatever you want and how many times you like. Winning gives you 100% of bet back. So here's the question: what would be the best tactic in assuring the most winnings in a safe manner. Your first thought might be that it is impossible, but I think it's not. The bread and butter of assuring this is that you can bet so that you gain back all that you might have lost at the last bet. Say I bet 10 and lose. The next bet I set to 20 so that if I win I gain what I lost and then some. If I lose again I bet enough to still gain 10 after the first two losses, so 40. I can continue this until I have won back everything I lost and then some. When I win, I go back to betting 10 and continue in this manner. As you can understand your initial bet has to be a small fraction of your whole sum of currency. But the idea is to gain slowly, but surely. This way I can go in pluss, while still having less than 50% winrate. Essentially I'm making sure that the bets I win are bigger than the ones I lose. This went well the first day and I almost doubled my money. But then I got in a loss stream and almost lost it all. Let's say I have 1000 of the fictional currency now. So what do you think would be the best way to go about this? Is there even a mathematically correct way to play this?
 February 10th, 2016, 05:08 AM #2 Math Team   Joined: Jan 2015 From: Alabama Posts: 3,264 Thanks: 902 First, you say "Winning gives you 100% of bet back". Do you mean you get your bet back plus 100% of your bet? If all you get back is 100% of your bet, you will never gain, even if you always win! The 'method' you mention is often called "the gambler's ruin". It will work as long as you start with an infinite amount of money- which, of course, no one does! If your chance of winning on any one turn is 40% and each turn is independent of the previous turn, there is NO way of guaranteeing you will win. Last edited by skipjack; February 10th, 2016 at 05:31 AM.
 February 10th, 2016, 05:19 AM #3 Newbie   Joined: Feb 2016 From: Norway Posts: 2 Thanks: 0 Earnings By 100% I mean you get everything back doubled. But you already knew that
February 10th, 2016, 05:59 AM   #4
Math Team

Joined: Apr 2010

Posts: 2,780
Thanks: 361

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Vike Is there even a mathematically correct way to play this?
Don't play at all unless you don't care about losing.

 Tags fictional, roulette, tactics

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The text passage describes a discussion about a fictional roulette game with a 40% chance of winning, where the player can bet any amount and the payout is 100% of the bet. The main question is about the best strategy to ensure the most winnings in a safe manner, with a specific betting strategy proposed and discussed.
single_question
Given a text passage, determine:
    1. If it contains a mathematical question (including word problems or calculations)
    2. If an answer to that mathematical question is provided in the text

First, describe the content structure you found in 1-2 sentences.

Then provide your analysis in the following format:
TYPE: <one of the following values>
- NO_QUESTION
- SINGLE_QUESTION
- SINGLE_QUESTION_WITH_ANSWER
- MULTIPLE_QUESTIONS
- MULTIPLE_QUESTIONS_WITH_ANSWERS
system
My Math Forum fictional roulette tactics

 Probability and Statistics Basic Probability and Statistics Math Forum

 February 10th, 2016, 04:00 AM #1 Newbie   Joined: Feb 2016 From: Norway Posts: 2 Thanks: 0 fictional roulette tactics So there's a roulette in this game I'm playing for ingame currency only. There is no way to get currency in the first place by buying with real life money so don't you worry about that. Basically it's just a harmless minigame. So here's the roulette, very simple. You have 40% chance of winning and you can bet whatever you want and how many times you like. Winning gives you 100% of bet back. So here's the question: what would be the best tactic in assuring the most winnings in a safe manner. Your first thought might be that it is impossible, but I think it's not. The bread and butter of assuring this is that you can bet so that you gain back all that you might have lost at the last bet. Say I bet 10 and lose. The next bet I set to 20 so that if I win I gain what I lost and then some. If I lose again I bet enough to still gain 10 after the first two losses, so 40. I can continue this until I have won back everything I lost and then some. When I win, I go back to betting 10 and continue in this manner. As you can understand your initial bet has to be a small fraction of your whole sum of currency. But the idea is to gain slowly, but surely. This way I can go in pluss, while still having less than 50% winrate. Essentially I'm making sure that the bets I win are bigger than the ones I lose. This went well the first day and I almost doubled my money. But then I got in a loss stream and almost lost it all. Let's say I have 1000 of the fictional currency now. So what do you think would be the best way to go about this? Is there even a mathematically correct way to play this?
 February 10th, 2016, 05:08 AM #2 Math Team   Joined: Jan 2015 From: Alabama Posts: 3,264 Thanks: 902 First, you say "Winning gives you 100% of bet back". Do you mean you get your bet back plus 100% of your bet? If all you get back is 100% of your bet, you will never gain, even if you always win! The 'method' you mention is often called "the gambler's ruin". It will work as long as you start with an infinite amount of money- which, of course, no one does! If your chance of winning on any one turn is 40% and each turn is independent of the previous turn, there is NO way of guaranteeing you will win. Last edited by skipjack; February 10th, 2016 at 05:31 AM.
 February 10th, 2016, 05:19 AM #3 Newbie   Joined: Feb 2016 From: Norway Posts: 2 Thanks: 0 Earnings By 100% I mean you get everything back doubled. But you already knew that
February 10th, 2016, 05:59 AM   #4
Math Team

Joined: Apr 2010

Posts: 2,780
Thanks: 361

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Vike Is there even a mathematically correct way to play this?
Don't play at all unless you don't care about losing.

 Tags fictional, roulette, tactics

 Thread Tools Display Modes Linear Mode

 Similar Threads Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post mdenham2 Algebra 1 February 3rd, 2010 06:00 PM bogazichili Advanced Statistics 1 December 21st, 2009 03:50 PM CRGreathouse Advanced Statistics 1 May 19th, 2009 05:37 PM Stephy7878 Advanced Statistics 1 February 18th, 2009 08:56 PM Stephy7878 Algebra 1 February 18th, 2009 12:56 PM

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The text passage describes a discussion about a fictional roulette game with a 40% chance of winning, where the player can bet any amount and the payout is 100% of the bet. The main question is about the best strategy to ensure the most winnings in a safe manner, with a specific betting strategy proposed and discussed.

TYPE: SINGLE_QUESTION