# On the Cosmological Evolution of the Luminosity Function and the Accretion Rate of Quasars

## 1 Introduction

The population of quasars as a whole exhibits a characteristic cosmological evolution: the number density of quasars rises monotonically by two orders of magnitude from redshift $`z0.1`$ to an apparent peak at $`z_{\mathrm{pk}}2.5`$. The evolution at redshifts exceeding $`z_{\mathrm{pk}}`$ is still unclear: the number density of optically bright quasars declines from $`z_{\mathrm{pk}}2.5`$ to $`z4.5`$ (Pei 1995), but recent ROSAT data have not shown any evidence for a similar decline in X–rays (Miyaji et al. 1998). The accreting supermassive black hole model (first proposed by Salpeter (1964) and Zel’dovich (1964); see also Rees 1984) produces the bolometric luminosity of an individual quasar, and provides a framework that has successfully accounted for several properties of the quasar phenomenology (e.g. Blandford 1992). However, the reason behind the evolution of the quasar luminosity function must involve some additional physics, likely related to the cosmological growth of structures (Efstathiou & Rees 1988)

Several ideas have been put forward to explain quasar evolution, including activation by mergers (Carlberg 1990); intermittent accretion (Small & Blandford 1992); association with dark halos using a nonlinear (Haehnelt & Rees 1993) or linear (Haiman & Loeb 1998) scaling of the BH mass $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}`$ with halo mass $`M_{\mathrm{halo}}`$; a relation to the individual quasar light curves (Siemiginowska & Elvis 1997) or spectral shapes (Caditz et al. 1991); and a transition to ADAFs at low redshift (Yi 1996). More recently, Cavaliere & Vittorini (1998) have attributed the evolution to the initial assembly of the host galaxies ($`z>\mathrm{\hspace{0.33em}3}`$), followed by their intermittent interactions as members of groups ($`z<\mathrm{\hspace{0.33em}3}`$). All these ideas are still poorly constrained by present data, and a conclusive understanding has not yet been achieved.

Quasars are virtually absent from the local universe, but the presence of supermassive black holes (“dead quasars”) in inactive galaxies is expected as a result of past quasar activity (e.g. Lynden–Bell 1969; Soltan 1982; Rees 1990). In recent years, significant progress has been made in the detection of such supermassive black holes (see Kormendy & Richstone 1995 for a review), and the latest results suggest that the nuclei of most, if not all, nearby galaxies contain massive dark objects, presumably the remnants of quasars (Magorrian et al. 1998). Fabian & Canizares (1988) pointed out that the nuclei of nearby elliptical galaxies appear much too dim to contain accreting supermassive black holes given the estimated mass accretion rates. Fabian & Rees (1995) suggested that this could be due to accretion via a radiatively inefficient “ion torus” (similar to an ADAF for that matter; see Ichimaru 1977; Rees et al. 1982; Narayan & Yi 1994; Abramowicz et al. 1995; or Narayan et al. 1998 for a review) which exist only at sub-Eddington accretion rates. This idea was later strengthened by calculations of Mahadevan (1997), and by the relative success of several ADAF spectral models of specific low luminosity nuclei (e.g. Lasota et al. 1996; Reynolds et al. 1996; Di Matteo et al. 1996; see also Di Matteo et al. 1999).

The main ingredients in modeling the quasar LF is the BH formation rate and the light–curve of each BH in the relevant wavelength band. The usual approach is to specify these ingredients with several parameters, and fit the LF by a “trial and error” procedure. We emphasize here that the least understood ingredient in these attempts is the mass accretion rate onto quasar black holes. Indeed, the key to understanding the cosmic evolution of quasars probably lies in their accretion history. In this paper, we invert the problem, and infer the accretion rates of quasars directly from the observed LF, while using a set of reasonable (although not unique) assumptions for the other model ingredients. Under these assumptions, we infer an accretion rate for the quasar population, which generally decreases as a function of time. By construction, using the inferred accretion rate as an ’ansatz’ then yields a fit to the evolution of the quasar LF. We find that this fit is a viable alternative to the models proposed so far, which assume an arbitrary (often constant) accretion rate, and propose a redshift dependence for other model parameters. An attractive feature of the class of models proposed here is that the decline of accretion rates over cosmic time–scales could provide a natural explanation for both the disappearance of bright quasars in the local universe and the presence of faint, accreting supermassive black holes at the center of most nearby galaxies.

Although we focus on optical and X-ray data, the method to infer $`\dot{M}`$ described here is applicable to any wavelength at which a LF and a reliable emission model exist. In this paper we adopt the concordance cosmology of Ostriker & Steinhardt (1995), i.e. a flat $`\mathrm{\Lambda }`$CDM model with a slightly tilted power spectrum ($`\mathrm{\Omega }_0,\mathrm{\Omega }_\mathrm{\Lambda },\mathrm{\Omega }_\mathrm{b},h,\sigma _{8h^1},n`$)=(0.35, 0.65, 0.04, 0.65, 0.87, 0.96). We have verified that our conclusions below regarding the decline in the accretion rate do not change significantly in other (e.g. open CDM) cosmologies.

The rest of this paper is organized as follows. In § 2, we state our assumptions on the masses of BHs; in § 3, we discuss the procedure to relate each quasar luminosity to its host halo’s mass; and in § 4, we summarize the main features of the disk emission model used. In § 5, we derive the accretion rate as a function of redshift and halo mass, which is the main result of this paper. In § 6, we argue that a declining accretion rate is expected in cosmological structure formation models. In § 7, we address the question of an intrinsic scatter around the mean ratio of BH to halo mass, and argue that such a scatter would not significantly change our conclusions. In § 8, we briefly discuss the implication of the X–ray luminosity function. Finally, in § 9 we discuss the implications of this work, and in § 10 we summarize our main conclusions.

## 2 The Formation of Quasar Black Holes

Although there is no a–priori theory for the cosmic black hole formation rate, it is natural to expect that it is related to the formation of dark matter halos. Although the fueling of the central BH takes place a the inner few parsecs of the halo, both the central gas density and temperature, likely to be the parameters controlling the fueling rate, are strongly correlated with the depth of the initial dark matter potential well, and therefore with the halo mass. The tight correlation discovered between bulge mass and black hole mass in nearby galaxies (Magorrian et al. 1998) provides empirical evidence that two very different scales (i.e. the inner few parsecs for the fueling, and the $``$kpc sized bulge) are connected to each other. The mass function of halos $`dN_{\mathrm{ps}}/dM`$ at any redshift is described by the Press–Schechter (1974) theory with an accuracy of $`50\%`$ when compared to numerical simulations at the mass–scales relevant here (Somerville et al. 1998). Note that the shape of the halo mass function has the desirable property of a steep decline with $`M_{\mathrm{halo}}`$, similar to the quasar LF. It has been a tradition in QSO evolution studies to phenomenologically characterize the LF evolution either as pure luminosity evolution (PLE) or as pure number density evolution (PDE). A distinction between these two possibilities was not feasible with the early data on the LF, which was consistent with a simple power–law, lacking any features. More recent data (see e.g. Pei 1995 and references therein) have revealed a break (or ”knee”) in the LF. Although the redshift-evolution can still be adequately characterized as PLE or PDE in the intermediate redshift range ($`0.7<z<\mathrm{\hspace{0.33em}1.7}`$; see Hatziminaoglou et al. 1998), it appears that over the extended interval of $`0<z<\mathrm{\hspace{0.33em}5}`$ the evolution of the LF requires a more complex description (Caditz & Petrosian 1990; Pei 1995; Goldschmidt & Miller 1997; Miyaji et al. 1998). Associating BHs with dark matter halos in the Press–Schechter theory naturally gives rise to a mixture of luminosity and number density evolutions.

Recent measurements of the black hole masses in 36 nearby galaxies provided evidence for a linear relation $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}M_{\mathrm{bulge}}`$ between black hole and bulge mass (Magorrian et al. 1998). Assuming $`M_{\mathrm{bulge}}M_{\mathrm{halo}}`$, this result further implies $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}M_{\mathrm{halo}}`$. A simple scenario in which the latter relation is satisfied in the local universe is if the relation holds at every redshift, i.e. if the BH masses grow synchronously with the host halo masses, $`\dot{M}_{\mathrm{bh}}/M_{\mathrm{bh}}=\dot{M}_{\mathrm{halo}}/M_{\mathrm{halo}}M_{\mathrm{bh}}/M_{\mathrm{halo}}=\mathrm{const}`$. Note that if mergers are important (i.e. if they occur on a time–scale less than the Hubble time), then we must also suppose that black holes merge together whenever their halos do. In what follows, we assume that $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}/M_{\mathrm{halo}}=10^{3.2}`$, consistent with the value $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}/M_{\mathrm{bulge}}=0.006`$ measured by Magorrian et al. (1998) if all the baryonic mass is contained in the bulges of galaxy-size halos (see §7 for a discussion of the effect of an intrinsic scatter in the ratio $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}/M_{\mathrm{halo}}`$). We emphasize here that the correlation was observed by Magorrian et al. (1998) in nearby galaxies, and therefore there is no observational justification for our simplifying assumption that the same correlation is already present as an ”initial condition” at high redshifts. A possibility that can not be ruled out is that this correlation is established during the complex evolutionary histories of the individual black holes. This scenario would require significantly more complicated modeling; however, the general feature of the models proposed here, namely a gradually declining fueling rate, would likely remain valid. In particular, to avoid a declining accretion rate, the ratio $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}/M_{\mathrm{halo}}`$ would have to be $``$2 orders of magnitude higher at high redshift ($`z4`$) than at $`z0`$, which would imply that essentially all of the gas inside high-$`z`$ halos was already incorporated into their central BHs.

## 3 The Observed Quasar Luminosity Functions

The quasar LF between redshifts $`0.1<z<\mathrm{\hspace{0.33em}4.5}`$ has been measured in the optical; we use the fitting functions for the K–corrected rest–frame B–band (around $`\nu =10^{14.83}`$Hz) LF obtained by Pei (1995). More recently, the LF has also been measured in X–rays (0.5–2 keV); we use the parametric fits constructed by Miyaji et al. (1998). Both the optical and X–ray LFs have a steep slope, and the abundance of quasars rises rapidly from $`z0.1`$ to $`z_{\mathrm{pk}}2.5`$. At redshifts exceeding $`z_{\mathrm{pk}}`$, the abundance of optically bright quasars turns over and slowly declines, while the X–ray data reveal a LF that stays flat up to $`z4.5`$.

The observed LF, $`dN_{\mathrm{obs}}/dL`$ can be compared directly with the Press–Schechter halo mass function $`dN_{\mathrm{ps}}/dM`$ to derive the luminosity $`L(z,M)`$ of each halo of mass $`M`$ that satisfies

$$\frac{dN_{\mathrm{obs}}}{dL}(z,L)\times \frac{dL}{dM}=f_{\mathrm{on}}\frac{dN_{\mathrm{ps}}}{dM}(z,M).$$
(1)   
Here $`f_{\mathrm{on}}`$ is the quasar “duty cycle”, i.e. the fraction of BHs (assuming all halos contain BHs, see Magorrian et al. 1998) that are active at a given time around redshift $`z`$. This fraction is determined by the details of quasar light–curves and the distribution of formation times of BHs, and could be a function of several parameters, such as redshift, halo mass, etc. Here we simply assume that each quasar shines for a constant time $`t_{\mathrm{source}}`$, and we take the duty cycle to be $`f_{\mathrm{on}}=t_{\mathrm{source}}/t_{\mathrm{Hub}}(z)`$, where $`t_{\mathrm{Hub}}(z)`$ is the redshift–dependent Hubble time. Our assumption is justified if the light–curve typically drops sharply a time $`t_{\mathrm{source}}`$ after the quasar becomes active (e.g. due to exhaustion of fuel, or shut–off due to a merger), or if intermittent activity adds up to a total duration $`t_{\mathrm{source}}`$ (e.g. if fueling is due to discrete clumps of gas). Note that $`f_{\mathrm{on}}`$ must be $`1`$ to avoid unrealistically large masses of the quasar host halos, independently of the ratio $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}/M_{\mathrm{halo}}`$.

The B–band luminosity $`L_\mathrm{B}(M,z)`$ associated with halo mass $`M`$ at redshift $`z`$ obtained by integrating equation (1) is shown in Figure 1 for $`z=0,1,2,3`$ and 4, and duty cycles corresponding to $`10^{6,7,8,9}`$ yrs. For a reasonable range of $`t_{\mathrm{source}}`$, observed quasars are associated with halos of mass $`10^{11}10^{15}\mathrm{M}_{}`$. Note that this conclusion is based only on equating the observed and predicted space densities; the only assumption in Figure 1 (apart from adopting the Press–Schechter theory and the cosmological parameters) is the constancy of the quasar lifetime. The general trend suggested by Figure 1 is that, as time goes on, observed quasars are less and less luminous, but correspond to more and more massive halos.

## 4 Accretion Disk Models

The optical/UV “Big Blue Bump” feature in the spectra of quasars is often interpreted as thermal emission from a thin accretion disk around a supermassive black hole (e.g. Malkan 1983; Laor 1990; see also Collin-Souffrin 1994 and Antonucci 1999 for possible difficulties with this interpretation). Here, we assume that, at any redshift, (i) the quasar luminosity in the B–band originates from a steady thin disk (Shakura & Sunyaev 1973; Frank et al. 1992) around a non–rotating BH, (ii) the disk is inclined at $`i=60^o`$ from the line of sight and (iii) general relativistic effects, irradiation effects and possible complications due to radiation-pressure dominated zones in the disk can be neglected.

Figure 2 shows the luminosities $`L_{\mathrm{disk}}`$ predicted by these disk models. The lines show $`L_{\mathrm{disk}}`$ for various accretion rates ($`\mathrm{log}\dot{m}=0`$ to $`3`$ with $`0.5`$ intervals, where $`\dot{m}\dot{M}/\dot{M}_{\mathrm{Edd}}`$) as a function of the central BH mass $`M_{\mathrm{BH}}`$. Note that here and in the remainder of this paper, we use the Eddington accretion rate $`\dot{M}_{\mathrm{Edd}}=1.4\times 10^{18}(M_{\mathrm{BH}}/M_{})\mathrm{g}\mathrm{s}^1`$ corresponding to a $`10\%`$ radiative efficiency.

The essential feature of the disk emission used in our work is that there is a unique $`L_{\mathrm{disk}}`$ predicted in the B–band for a given $`M_{\mathrm{BH}}`$ and $`\dot{m}`$, as seen from Figure 2. The reduction of $`L_{\mathrm{disk}}`$ at high $`M_{\mathrm{BH}}`$ and low $`\dot{m}`$ in this figure appears because for this range of parameters the disk emission peaks at wavelengths longer than the B–band (see also Caditz et al. 1991). This characteristic feature of the spectrum affects our conclusions for the accretion rates only for the most massive BHs at low redshifts, where the accretion rate is found to be substantially sub–Eddington. If this effect was omitted from our calculations, the accretion rate for a given quasar luminosity at low redshifts would be smaller than the values inferred in § 5. We are therefore conservative in including this effect.

## 5 Evolution of the Quasar Accretion Rate

The accretion rate in quasars as a function of redshift and BH mass can be found by equating the observed and predicted luminosities, $`L_\mathrm{B}(M_{\mathrm{bh}},z)=L_{\mathrm{disk}}(M_{\mathrm{bh}},\dot{m})`$. Here $`L_\mathrm{B}`$ is the B band luminosity associated with a halo of mass $`M_{\mathrm{halo}}`$ (Fig. 1), which harbors a black hole of mass $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}=10^{3.2}M_{\mathrm{halo}}`$; $`L_{\mathrm{disk}}`$ is the B–band luminosity of the quasar as shown in Figure 2. As an example, according to Figure 1 if the source lifetime is $`t_{\mathrm{source}}=10^7`$ yr, at $`z=2`$ a halo of mass $`M_{\mathrm{halo}}=10^{12.2}\mathrm{M}_{}`$ (with a black hole of mass $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}=10^9\mathrm{M}_{}`$) has a luminosity of $`10^{45.5}\mathrm{erg}\mathrm{s}^1`$. This luminosity and black hole mass, according to Figure 2, correspond to an accretion rate $`\dot{m}=0.1`$ (third curve from top).

In Figure 3, we show the inferred accretion rate $`\dot{m}`$ as a function of redshift for three different duty cycles ($`t_{\mathrm{source}}=10^{6,7,8}`$ yr). In each case, we show the accretion rates for the halo mass range $`10^{11}M_{\mathrm{halo}}/\mathrm{M}_{}10^{14}`$. Figure 3 reveals that in all cases, the accretion rate decreases with decreasing redshift, and that between $`3>z>\mathrm{\hspace{0.33em}0}`$, it drops by a factor of several hundred.

The inferred accretion rates are roughly independent of halo mass for $`t_{\mathrm{source}}=10^7`$ yr, as reflected by the grouping of the solid lines in Figure 3. This grouping is partly due to the combined effect of the non–linear dependence of $`L_\mathrm{B}`$ on M$`\mathrm{halo}`$ (Fig. 1), and the turnover in the luminosity at high BH masses and low accretion rates (Fig. 2). For a longer lifetime, $`\dot{m}`$ increases with increasing halo mass (long dashed lines); while for a shorter lifetime $`\dot{m}`$ decreases with increasing halo mass (short dashed lines). Note that in the latter case $`\dot{m}>1`$ is predicted, meaning that the required luminosities can be produced only by BHs larger than we assumed; this would be inconsistent with the observational results of Magorrian et al. (1998). Although Figure 3 shows results only from the optical LF, we obtain qualitatively similar curves from the X–ray data, if we assume an X–ray/optical flux ratio of $`20\%`$. This value is based on the mean spectrum of a sample of 48 quasars, selected by Elvis et al. (1994) by the requirement that each quasar has a good spectrum both in the optical (from IUE) and X-ray (from Einstein).

The evolution of $`\dot{m}`$, independent of $`M_{\mathrm{halo}}`$ for $`t_{\mathrm{source}}=10^7`$ yr, suggests that the accretion rate in physical units goes as $`\dot{M}M`$ at any given time. Such a scaling would hold, for example, if each halo was undergoing isolated spherical self-similar infall (Bertschinger 1985). The apparent turnover of $`\dot{m}`$ at redshifts $`z>\mathrm{\hspace{0.33em}3}`$ reflects the decline of the B–band LF at these redshifts, and may be caused by dust obscuration (Heisler & Ostriker 1988). This explanation is consistent with the recent X–ray data (insensitive to the presence or absence of dust) showing that the X-ray LF does not decline at $`z>\mathrm{\hspace{0.33em}3}`$ (see § 8 for a more detailed comparison between X-ray and optical data).

## 6 Accretion Rate From Structure Formation Models

Is a declining accretion rate in the population of quasars expected? A derivation of the accretion rate from first principles must necessarily address several complicated issues that are beyond the scope of this paper, such as the role of angular momentum and gas cooling. Such studies are now underway, e.g. Sellwood & Moore (1999) have explored in detail the formation of massive central objects in bars of galactic disks, and their subsequent fueling, including the dependence on angular momentum. Here we will only put forward two general arguments for a decline of the accretion rate with decreasing redshift.

First, assuming that each black hole grows as a central point mass in an isolated collapsing spherical cloud, the self–similar infall solutions of Bertschinger (1985) imply<sup>1</sup><sup>1</sup>1Although these relations are valid only for an Einstein–de Sitter universe, a similar behavior is expected in $`\mathrm{\Omega }+\mathrm{\Lambda }`$=1 models. that $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}t^{2/3}`$ and $`\dot{M}_{\mathrm{bh}}/M_{\mathrm{bh}}=2/3t`$. Although isolated spherical infall is likely to be a crude approximation at best for the formation of quasar black holes, the primary reason for the slow growth of the central mass is the cosmological expansion<sup>2</sup><sup>2</sup>2For comparison, note that in a static medium the central mass would grow exponentially or faster; see Bondi (1952).. It is therefore unlikely that departure from spherical symmetry, or interactions with other collapsing halos could considerably speed up the accretion, relative to the power–law growth for an extended period of time (corresponding to $`0<z<\mathrm{\hspace{0.33em}4}`$) in the entire quasar population. In Figure 4 we show the (declining) accretion rate as a function of redshift based on the Bertschinger (1985) solutions.

A second argument can be drawn directly from the Press–Schechter theory. In the limit that $`d/dt(dN_{\mathrm{ps}}/dM)`$ merely reflects the growth in mass of each individual halo, the accretion rate of halos can be obtained by requiring that the total number density of halos does not change, $`d/dt[MdN/dM]=0`$. This yields for the halo mass accretion rate

$$\dot{m}=\frac{1}{M}\times \frac{}{t}\left(\frac{dN_{\mathrm{ps}}}{dM}\right)\times \left[\frac{1}{M}\left(\frac{dN_{\mathrm{ps}}}{dM}\right)+\frac{}{M}\left(\frac{dN_{\mathrm{ps}}}{dM}\right)\right]^1,$$
(2)   
which, by our assumption of constant ratio $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}/M_{\mathrm{halo}}`$, is identical to the BH accretion rate. In Figure 4 we show the accretion rates in this limit as a function of redshift. The accretion rates drop in all cases, but unlike in the isolated spherical self-similar infall case, $`\dot{m}(z)`$ depends on the halo mass. Note that both the Bertschinger solution and Press–Schechter theory predict mass accretion rates which are super–Eddington at high $`z`$, and become substantially sub–Eddington near $`z0`$.

An important ingredient ignored in the above argument is the occurrence of mergers between halos. Naively taking a time–derivative of the mass–function $`dN_{\mathrm{ps}}/dM`$ results in a quantity that is negative for small masses, and positive for large masses, with the sign changing at a critical value $`M=M_{}`$. Sasaki (1994) argued that this behavior reflects a decreasing contribution of destructive mergers to the evolution of the mass function for halos of mass $`M>M_{}`$. In other words, the evolution of the mass function at large masses (the typical halo mass $`M_{\mathrm{halo}}`$ of interest here) would be governed mainly by accretion, rather than mergers.

In order to quantify the role of mergers, we have used the extended Press–Schechter formalism (Lacey & Cole 1993, equation 2.18) to compute merger rates between halos of various masses. In figure 5 we show the number of major mergers that a halo of a given mass $`M_{\mathrm{halo}}=10^{1015}\mathrm{M}_{}`$ experiences in a Hubble time. We have defined a major merger to occur when the mass ratio of the merging halos is less than 0.5 (i.e. a halo collides with another halo whose mass is between $`M_{\mathrm{halo}}/2`$ and $`2M_{\mathrm{halo}}`$). The figure reveals that the merger rate between galaxy–sized halos $`(10^{12}\mathrm{M}_{})`$ has the desirable property of having a well–defined peak around $`z2.5`$, the redshift at which the LF of bright quasars peaks. However, the figure also shows that the decrease in the physical merger rate $`dN/dt`$ between $`z=3`$ and $`z=0`$ is only a factor of $`15`$ (taking into account a factor of $`5`$ increase in the Hubble time during this interval). If the fueling rate of BHs were proportional to the merger rate (corresponding to a fixed fraction of the baryons going into the hole for each merger), this decrease would be insufficient to explain the evolution of the observed quasar LF: our results show that the decrease in $`\dot{m}`$ has to be over two orders of magnitude. Note that our definition of a “major merger”, and therefore the resulting merger rate, is somewhat arbitrary. However, we find that including a wider range of halo masses in defining the merger rate still leads to an insufficiently small decrease in $`\dot{m}`$.

We conclude that the decrease in the merger rates between halos might play an important role in reducing the accretion rates, and contribute to the cosmological evolution of the quasar LF. However, we find that if the fueling rate of quasars is proportional to the halo merger rate, then the rapid evolution between $`z=3`$ and $`z=0`$ of the quasar LF requires an additional decrease by about an order of magnitude in the fueling rate.

## 7 The Role of Intrinsic Scatter

We have so far assumed a deterministic linear relation between the quasar luminosity $`L`$, halo mass $`M_{\mathrm{halo}}`$ and black hole mass $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}`$. More realistically, one would expect that individual quasars exhibit an intrinsic scatter around the mean ratio $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}/M_{\mathrm{halo}}`$. In the sample of 36 galaxies analyzed by Magorrian et al. (1998), the value of $`r=M_{\mathrm{bh}}/M_{\mathrm{bulge}}`$ is found to obey the probability distribution $`p(r)=\mathrm{exp}[(\mathrm{log}r\mathrm{log}r_0)^2/2\sigma ^2]`$ with $`\mathrm{log}r_0=2.28`$ and $`\sigma =0.51`$. The implications of this result for the scatter in the ratio $`x=M_{\mathrm{bh}}/M_{\mathrm{halo}}`$ is not clear, because of our ignorance of $`M_{\mathrm{halo}}`$ for the observed galaxies. Van der Marel (1999) finds statistical errors in the observationally determined BH masses (due to photometry, PSF deconvolution, and uncertainties about stellar contributions to the central density profile) that could explain all of the observed scatter. However, some unknown fraction of the observed scatter $`\sigma 0.5`$ is likely to be real, and we investigate below the effect of this scatter on the inferred accretion rates.

In the presence of an intrinsic scatter, the BH mass function is given by the convolution $`dN/dM_{\mathrm{BH}}=𝑑x(1/x)p(x)𝑑N/𝑑M_{\mathrm{halo}}(M_{\mathrm{bh}}/x)`$. At large halo masses, where the halo mass function is a steeply declining function of $`M_{\mathrm{halo}}`$, this convolution increases the expected space density of BHs of a given mass. To quantify the effect that this increase has on the models, we assume the “log–normal” probability distribution given above, with $`\mathrm{log}x_0=3.2`$ and $`\sigma =0.5`$ for the ratio $`x=M_{\mathrm{bh}}/M_{\mathrm{halo}}`$. This is equivalent to the extreme assumption that all of the observed scatter is intrinsic; the real situation is likely to be in between the deterministic linear relation (§ 5) and the case of strong intrinsic scatter presented here.

Figure 6 shows the mean relation between quasar luminosity and halo mass in the presence of scatter, derived analogously to Figure 1. Figure 7 shows the resulting accretion rates, analogously to Figure 3. Figures 6 and 7 are very similar to Figures 1 and 3, respectively. In particular, a decline of $`\dot{m}`$ of approximatively 2 orders of magnitude is still inferred between $`0<z<\mathrm{\hspace{0.33em}3}`$. Since, in first approximation, a given B-band luminosity is $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}\dot{M}M_{\mathrm{bh}}^2\dot{m}`$ for thin disk emission (see Fig. 3), a strong intrinsic scatter of $`\sigma =0.5`$ for log $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}`$ corresponds to a scatter $`2\sigma `$ for log $`\dot{m}`$. Therefore, at the $`1\sigma `$ level, an uncertainty of a factor $`10`$ exists on the inferred $`\dot{m}`$ shown in Figure 7. Even with this large uncertainty, the decline of the accretion rate from high redshift to low redshift is still statistically significant. We emphasize again here that this amount of scatter in $`\dot{m}`$ corresponds to the extreme case where all the observed scatter in the relation between $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}`$ and $`M_{\mathrm{bulge}}`$ is assumed to be intrinsic to the ratio $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}/M_{\mathrm{halo}}`$.

## 8 X-ray vs. Optical Data

A simultaneous study of the quasar evolution in X–ray and in optical ought to reveal important information on accretion processes in these objects. A detailed treatment of this question, which would necessarily involve an X–ray emission model, is beyond the scope of the present paper. In general, the ratio of optical to X–ray emission of quasars could be a complicated function of $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}`$, $`\dot{m}`$ and $`z`$. Quasars detected by ROSAT in the soft X–rays have revealed a different behaviour of the X–ray/optical ratio for radio–quiet (Yuan et al. 1998) and radio–loud (Brinkmann et al. 1997) objects. Radio-quiet quasars have in general steeper soft X-ray spectra than radio-loud ones. The X-ray loudness has been found to be independent of redshift for both types of sources, but a slight increase of the loudness has been found with optical luminosity in the more abundant radio–quiet sources, although this might be explained by the dispersion of the intrinsic luminosities and the flux limits of the observations. The handful of $`z>3`$ ROSAT quasars confirm the result that the X–ray/optical luminosity ratio is correlated with optical luminosity and does not evolve strongly with redshift (Pickering et al. 1994). On the other hand, recent ROSAT observations resolved the bulk of the X–ray background into discrete sources (Hasinger 1999), and have shown that the characteristic hard spectrum of the XRB can only be explained if most QSO spectra are heavily absorbed. This would imply the existence of a (possible redshift–dependent) population of QSOs with very large X–ray/optical ratios. A wealth of data exists on the X–ray/optical ratios in Galactic BH candidates, and several authors have attempted to directly apply these Galactic observations to supermassive BHs (see, e.g. Choi et al. 1999).

For simplicity, here we consider only the following, simplified question. We assume that the accretion rate previously derived from the optical LF is an accurate estimate of $`\dot{m}(z)`$, and we expect the same accretion rate to power X–ray emission from quasars. Therefore, we ask: what is the ratio of optical to X–ray emission (as a function of $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}`$ and $`z`$) required to obtain consistency between the accretion rate derived from the optical and the X–ray luminosity functions.

In Figure 8, the accretion rate derived from optical data, assuming a strong scattering of $`\sigma =0.5`$ in the $`\mathrm{log}`$ of the ratio $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}/M_{\mathrm{halo}}`$, with a mean of $`10^{3.2}`$ and $`t_{\mathrm{source}}=10^7`$ yr, is shown as dashed lines for various $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}`$ (equivalent to the solid lines of Fig. 7). The solid lines in Figure 8 represent the best match to the dashed lines of the $`\dot{m}`$ inferred from the X–ray data when the same scattering, mean $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}/M_{\mathrm{halo}}`$ and $`t_{\mathrm{source}}`$ are assumed. This match is obtained for the ratio of X–ray to optical emission:

$$\frac{\nu L_\nu (X)}{\nu L_\nu (B)}=0.17\left(\frac{10^{10}\mathrm{M}_{}}{M_{\mathrm{bh}}}\right)^{0.4},$$
(3)   
where the B-band luminosity $`\nu L_\nu (B)`$, which is a function of $`\dot{m}`$, is taken from the disk models described in § 4.

Under these assumptions, the agreement between the $`\dot{m}`$ inferred from the optical and X–ray LFs is excellent between $`0<z<1.5`$. The agreement is poor for $`z>1.5`$, where a significant dependence of $`\dot{m}`$ on $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}`$ appears (larger $`\dot{m}`$ being inferred for the more massive BHs). We note, however, that at redshifts above $`z>1.5`$ the X–ray LF is not well determined, and the fitting formula of Miyaji et al. (1998) is simply flat, with no redshift evolution. Therefore, although the results shown in Figure 8 reveal a more complicated (although still significantly declining) accretion rate at $`z>1.5`$, these results should be considered more uncertain, until the X–ray LF is measured more accurately. The environments of quasars can certainly be affected by cosmological structure formation and evolution, which could lead to a redshift-evolution of the X–ray/optical ratio. In this case, the departure from equation 3 at high-$`z`$ could indeed be significant.

The above considerations reveal that the relation between the X–ray and the optical emission of quasars, and its evolution, are not trivial. It suggests that the energy radiated in X–rays is $`20`$ % of the energy in the B-band for a BH of mass $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}=10^{10}M_{}`$, and higher for smaller BHs (with approximate equality between optical and X–ray emission for $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}=10^8M_{}`$). The reason for the dependence on $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}`$ is unclear. If one believes that at low enough $`\dot{m}`$ (say $`<0.1`$), the accretion flow in quasars is made of an inner ADAF and an outer thin disk, then the increase of $`\nu L_\nu (X)/\nu L_\nu (B)`$ for smaller $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}`$ could be due, at least in part, to an increase of the transition radius $`R_{\mathrm{tr}}`$ between the ADAF and the disk, which would result in a reduced optical emission from the disk. This trend seems consistent with the rather large values of $`R_{\mathrm{tr}}`$ in X–ray binaries containing stellar-mass BHs (e.g. Narayan, Barret & McClintock 1997) and the smaller value in, for example, the AGN NGC 4258 (Gammie, Narayan & Blandford 1999). However, the problem is complicated by the fact that the value of $`R_{\mathrm{tr}}`$ also depends on $`\dot{m}`$ (see e.g. Narayan et al. 1998 for a discussion).

The argument based on $`R_{\mathrm{tr}}`$ is only qualitative and tentative, and it certainly does not capture all the physics of the problem. We note, for example, that at high $`z`$ and nearly Eddington accretion rates, one cannot invoke optically thin ADAFs to produce the large amount of X–ray emission observed. At smaller redshifts, the good agreement we find between the $`\dot{m}`$ inferred from optical and X-ray data (using Eq. 3) implicitly assumes the proportionality $`\nu L_\nu (X)\dot{m}`$. If the quasar’s emission were due to an ADAF alone, then the X–ray luminosity would scale approximately as $`\dot{m}^2`$, rather than as $`\dot{m}`$ (e.g. Narayan et al. 1999). Internal consistency of a two-component ADAF + thin disk model therefore requires a dependence of $`R_{\mathrm{tr}}`$ on $`\dot{m}(z)`$ such that the linear scaling $`\nu L_\nu (X)\dot{m}`$ we assume is recovered. While this is plausible, a more detailed theoretical treatment of these models is necessary to clarify whether ADAFs indeed play a role in the evolution of the optical vs. X–ray LFs.

## 9 Discussion

In the class of models presented here, black holes grow synchronously with their dark matter halos after their formation, maintaining a constant ratio $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}/M_{\mathrm{halo}}`$. We did not address the important question of consistency between the mass accretion rates inferred from the LFs and the individual black hole masses acquired by the end of the quasar phase ($`M_{\mathrm{bh}}=𝑑t\dot{M}_{\mathrm{bh}}`$). This would require following the accretion and the merger history of individual halos (Lacey & Cole 1993; Kauffmann & White 1993) while our work concentrated on the quasar population as a whole. Related to this question is the interpretation of the duty–cycle, which could be caused either by short intermittent activity phases or one single luminous phase. We assumed that all halos have a central black hole, as suggested by observations (Magorrian et al. 1998); however the duty cycle could be partly interpreted as a fraction of the halos harboring quasars.

It is important to note that, independent of the questions of interpretation above, our fit to the LF with a declining $`\dot{m}(z)`$ is not unique. An alternative possibility is a decrease of the average quasar lifetime with redshift. A continuously shortening lifetime would decrease the duty cycle, and this would go in the right direction towards explaining the decline in the QSO abundance at $`z<\mathrm{\hspace{0.33em}3}`$. Figure 3 shows that keeping the accretion rate constant ($`\dot{m}=1`$) over the range $`0<z<\mathrm{\hspace{0.33em}4}`$ would, however, require very short lifetimes near $`z0`$. In order to quantify the role $`t_{\mathrm{source}}`$ might play in the evolution of the LF, we have repeated our calculations, keeping the accretion rate $`\dot{m}`$ fixed, and allowing $`t_{\mathrm{source}}`$ to decrease with decreasing $`z`$. We find that the lifetimes required to fit the LF near $`z0`$ are implausibly short, $`t_{\mathrm{source}}<`$1 yr. This is not surprising: reducing $`\dot{m}`$ allows a QSO at a fixed luminosity to be associated with a more massive, and thus an exponentially rarer dark halo. In comparison, a reduction in the duty–cycle decreases the abundance only linearly with $`t_{\mathrm{source}}`$. A second alternative is an accretion rate kept constant at the Eddington value, while the ratio $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}/M_{\mathrm{halo}}`$ decreases rapidly towards low redshifts (Haehnelt, Natarajan & Rees 1998). In Figure 9 we explicitly show the value of $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}/M_{\mathrm{halo}}`$ as a function of $`z`$ required in this case. In this model, the BH formation efficiency decreases from redshift $`z3`$ to $`z0`$ by $``$2 orders of magnitude. The ratio $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}/M_{\mathrm{halo}}`$ is also a function of $`M_{\mathrm{halo}}`$. The form of this function depends sensitively on the assumed duty–cycle, but at $`z=0`$ the ratio is monotonically increasing with $`M_{\mathrm{halo}}`$ for $`t_{\mathrm{source}}>\mathrm{\hspace{0.33em}10}^6`$ years. In this model, at $`z=0`$, the required BH masses are significantly smaller than considered above (§ 2); this is consistent with the Magorrian et al. (1998) data, provided bulges comprise only a small fraction of the total baryonic mass in galaxy–size halos, and the bulge mass has a non–linear dependence on the halo mass (see Haehnelt, Natarajan & Rees 1998 for a discussion).

Observations of nearby galaxies provide only a relation between the black hole mass and the mass of the spheroidal component of the galaxy (Magorrian et al. 1998). It is possible that a significant fraction of the baryonic mass of these galaxies (in form of gas) is omitted from the mass budget when $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}`$ is related to $`M_{\mathrm{halo}}`$. Indeed, attempts to observationally estimate the mass of an extended gaseous component in both spiral and elliptical galaxies have remained rather unsuccessful so far (see Zaritsky 1998). If this component is important for the mass budget, halos of observed galaxies are more massive than assumed above, which results in smaller values of the (mean) ratio $`x=M_{\mathrm{bh}}/M_{\mathrm{halo}}`$. The effect of reducing $`x`$ by a constant factor is simply to scale up the accretion rates required to fit the quasar LF, but the decline with $`z`$ is conserved. For example, for the case with strong intrinsic scatter, we find that the effect of reducing the mean value of the ratio $`x`$ from $`10^{3.2}`$ to $`10^{4.2}`$ is to scale up $`\dot{m}(z)`$ by one to two orders of magnitude (depending on halo mass and $`t_{\mathrm{source}}`$) in comparison to the values shown in Figure 7. This is unacceptable in the framework of the thin accretion disk models considered here since the accretion rates at high $`z`$ become substantially super-Eddington for all halo masses and $`t_{\mathrm{source}}>\mathrm{\hspace{0.33em}10}^6`$ yr.

In deriving the relations $`LM_{\mathrm{halo}}`$ shown in Figures 1 and 6, only two assumptions have been made: (1) one BH in each Press–Schechter halo, and (2) a constant quasar lifetime. In particular, the $`LM_{\mathrm{halo}}`$ relation is independent of the ratio $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}/M_{\mathrm{halo}}`$, and quite large halo masses ($`10^{13}\mathrm{M}_{}<M_{\mathrm{halo}}<\mathrm{\hspace{0.33em}10}^{15}\mathrm{M}_{}`$) arise simply by equating the predicted space densities of halos with the observed space densities of optical quasars (a similar result is obtained with the X-ray LF). There are two ways to avoid unreasonably large halo masses. The first option is to have a duty cycle $`t_{\mathrm{source}}10^6`$ yr. Such a short $`t_{\mathrm{source}}`$ could be consistent with super-Eddington accretion via a “radiation torus” (Blandford & Rees 1992), but not with the Eddington–limited thin disk accretion considered here.

A second, perhaps more attractive, solution to the problem of large halo masses is to observe that such halos ($`M_{\mathrm{halo}}>\mathrm{\hspace{0.33em}10}^{13}\mathrm{M}_{}`$) correspond to groups or clusters of galaxies in the Press–Schechter formalism. We have so far assumed that each halo harbors one BH (as did previous works relating quasars to Press–Schechter halos). However, it is plausible that a cluster–sized halo contains several quasars, perhaps one in each of its member galaxies. Including this effect would change the black hole mass function, and result in a reduction of $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}`$ and an increase of $`\dot{M}`$ deduced from the observations. A detailed study of this effect requires a knowledge of the sub–structure of each halo, which is beyond the scope of the present work.

Although we based our models on the spectrum of a thin accretion disk, the decline in the accretion rate would be inferred with more general accretion models as well. The two essential characteristics of thin disk accretion that we utilized are (1) a radiative efficiency of roughly $`10\%`$, and (2) the approximate proportionality of the flux to $`M_{\mathrm{bh}}`$ and $`\dot{m}`$. Any accretion model with roughly these properties would lead to similar conclusions on the decline of the accretion rate with decreasing redshift. Finally, in order to assess the sensitivity of our results to the assumed cosmology, we repeated our calculations in an open universe (setting $`\mathrm{\Lambda }=0`$). The predicted space density from the Press–Schechter formalism is strongly dependent on cosmology. However, when we assume a different cosmology, we also correct the observationally derived luminosity function, since this quantity comes from the number of objects on the sky per solid angle. Using the corrected intrinsic space density $`dN_{\mathrm{obs}}/dL`$ tends to balance the changes to the Press–Schechter mass function due to cosmology. We find that the accretion rates inferred in the open CDM model differ by less than $`20\%`$ from those shown in Figure 3 in the $`\mathrm{\Lambda }`$CDM model.

## 10 Conclusions

We constructed models for the cosmological evolution of quasars, using the Press–Schechter theory for determining the black hole mass function, and assuming that quasar optical emission is due to accretion via a thin disk. Contrary to existing models of quasar evolution, the accretion rate $`\dot{M}`$ of the quasar population is not postulated, but rather inferred from the observed quasar luminosity function.

According to these models, the accretion rate of the population of quasar black holes decreases with cosmic time. We find that the same fueling rate is inferred from the X–ray and optical LF, provided the X–ray/optical flux ratio decreases with BH mass. More detailed modeling of the emission processes in these two bands is needed to clarify the validity of the relation we find. A peak in the accretion rate near $`z3.5`$ (Fig. 3) is inferred from the optical LF. A derivation using X–ray data does not show a similar turnover, suggesting that the peak inferred from the optical data is caused by dust obscuration. Near $`z0`$, $`\dot{M}`$ drops to substantially sub-Eddington values at which ADAFs exist. The combination of a decreasing $`\dot{M}(z)`$ and a possible transition to radiatively inefficient ADAFs at late times could be the origin of the absence of bright quasars in the local universe and the faintness of accreting BHs at the centers of nearby galaxies. We argued that such a decline of the quasar accretion rate over cosmic timescale is consistent with expectations from cosmological structure formation models, and cannot be explained by halo mergers alone if the fueling rate of quasars is proportional to the merger rate.

We thank L. Hernquist, A. Loeb and R. Narayan for useful discussions and comments. ZH was supported by the DOE and the NASA grant NAG 5-7092 at Fermilab. KM was supported by a SAO Predoctoral Fellowship, NSF grant 9820686, and a French Higher Education Ministry grant.