# Untitled Document

TIME VARIATIONS OF SOLAR NEUTRINO. THE MAIN ARGUMENTS PRO AND SOME INFERENCES

Rivin Yu.R., Obridko V.N.

I. Arguments in support of time variations of the high-speed solar neutrino flux, recorded with the Homestake detector.

1. In a separate run of measurements of solar neutrino by the Homestake detector, the ratio of the number of $`{}_{}{}^{37}Ar`$ atoms per day (signal) to the average measuring error (noise) is $`1`$. For the annual mean values, the signal–to-noise ratio is $`34`$, which allows us to analyze cyclic (and, less reliably, “quasi-biennial”) variations of the solar neutrino flux, Pn (Rivin et al., 1983; Rivin, 1989-1993; Rivin & Obridko, 1997).

2. According to interpretation of the $`P_\nu `$ curve and its spectrum, suggested in the mentioned works, these variations have two independent sources. One is the processes inside the convection zone that produce oscillations with a quasi-period $`T1`$ years. Another source is associated with thermal processes in the core that have a characteristic period of $`25`$ years, i.e. “quasi-biennial” variations (Sacurai, 1979; Sacurai & Hasegawa, 1985; Rivin et al., 1983).

Up to 1985, the neutrino flux had displayed a good correlation with the Wolf numbers, W, changing in anti-phase with a period of 11-years (Rivin et al., 1983; Rivin, 1993; Davis, 1984). After 1985 (in solar cycle 22), the correlation broke: the maximum values of $`W`$ in cycles 21 and 22 were approximately equal, whereas the maximum of $`P_\nu `$ in cycle 22 was significantly lower, than in the previous one. The correlation could be somewhat improved by smoothing the original curves (removing the short- periodic oscillations), but it still remained poor after 1985 non only in the Homestake, but also in the Kamiokande-II data. This fact raised serious doubts as to whether any time variations of $`P_\nu `$ did exist at all. However the reason for such discrepancy was explained later in (Obridko & Rivin, 1995, 1996; Rivin & Obridko, 1997; Rivin, 1997). It was shown that the Wolf numbers did not adequately represent cyclic variations of the modulus of the deep quadrupole solar magnetic field, $`B_q`$, that proved to conserve correlation with $`P_\nu `$. The correlation even became better during the past 20 years. The fact is that the amplitude of $`B_q`$ variations, modulating the neutrino flux, is by several fold smaller in cycle 22, than in cycle 21. This ratio of amplitudes in two successive cycles differs much from that of the Wolf number series.

Later on, this work was used to construct a model of 11-year variations of $`B`$ (Obridko & Rivin, 1996c; Rivin, 1997a, 1998a-c). The model involves three spatial coordinates in addition to the temporal one, and provides a simplified mechanism that describes observations better, that the available theoretical models.

The observation series of solar neutrino is too short to justify any definite conclusions, however the coincidence in shape of the $`P_\nu `$ and $`B_q`$ amplitude variations provides an additional evidence in support of our hypothesis of the 11-year cycle and other variations of $`P_\nu `$.

Note that the present-day argument pro and contra time variations of $`P_\nu `$ has historic analogy. G.Schwabe, who discovered the 11-year cycle of solar activity in 1843, could not publish his results for several years, because authoritative scientists of that time believed them implausible, taking into account that the observed and calculated diurnal Wolf numbers displayed a scatter far beyond the annual mean values. The publication was finally promoted by A.Humboldt, however another 50–60 years had to pass before the solar cycle was broadly recognized by the scientific community. We hope that recognition of the 11-year cycle and other variations of $`P_\nu `$ will not take long.

The quasi-biennial variation of $`P_\nu `$ is much more obscured by the recording errors, than the 11-year cycle, and besides, it is additionally distorted due to a break in operation of the detector in 1985–1986. Nevertheless Rivin (1993) could reveal a good correlation of $`P_\nu `$ with the respective variations of Wolf numbers and a somewhat worse correlation with $`B_q`$.

Thus, the correlation of $`P_\nu `$ with the Wolf numbers and $`B_q`$ over two periods ($`11`$ years and $`25`$ years) was established reliably enough to make inferences of real time variations of the neutrino flux and even of its modulation sources.

Another important feature of time variations of the neutrino flux is described in (Rivin et al., 1983; Rivin, 1989, 1993). The amplitudes of $`P_\nu `$ variations with $`T11`$ years and $`T25`$ years are approximately equal, unlike the case of $`W`$ and $`B_q`$, where the amplitude of the 11–year cycle is much larger, than the amplitude of oscillations with a shorter period. This fundamental difference was not taken into account in statistical studies (e.g. in the work by Bahcall (1989), in the chapter devoted to neutrino time variations). This erroneously resulted in the conclusion that time variations in $`P_\nu `$ were absent. The analysis would have been more correct if short- period variations had been filtered out from the data series before processing. Besides, taking into account all said above, it would be reasonable to use as a characteristic of the solar magnetic field (especially after 1986) the modulus of the large-scale field, measured directly in the photosphere, rather than the Wolf numbers (Obridko & Rivin, 1995a, 1996a).

3. The works by Akhmedov (1997) and Masseti & Storini (1996) served a starting point for our analysis of seasonal variations in $`P_\nu `$. As a result, an annual wave with the extrema at equinoxes (in spring higher and in autumn lower than at the solstices) was isolated by two different methods. It was suggested to be due to the Voloshin-Vysotsky-Okun mechanism (VVO) (Voloshin et al., 1986), working in the magnetic field with a significant spatial asymmetry (Rivin & Obridko, 1998). This variation, however, was not revealed in the data from Kamiokande-II and SuperKamiokande quoted by Suzuki (1996). The explanation may be as follows: as a result of modulation by the 11–year cycle the amplitude of the annual wave is much smaller in the years of minimum, than in the years of maximum of cycle 21, and it may become pronounced again in a year or two.

Thus, the joint analysis of the Homestake Pn data and the $`B_q`$ measurements in the photosphere allows us to make a conclusion of two probable mechanisms in the Sun, responsible for modulation of the neutrino flux, $`P_\nu `$. One is the modulus of the magnetic quadrupole, generated at the base of the transition layer between the convection and the radiative zones, where the differential rotation is changed by the rigid one (here, the 11–year cycle and the annual wave take their origin). Another source is associated with the thermal fluctuations of the core (quasi–biennial variations).

Since the quadrupole magnetic field is likely to rotate mainly with a period $`T27`$ days, one should expect to observe the same period in $`P_\nu `$. This inference can probably be verified in future using the SuperKamiokande and other up-to- date detectors. Preliminary diurnal $`P_\nu `$ data from the SuperKamiokande detector were given by Suzuki (1996) for 175 days after 1.04.1996. These data did not reveal any pronounced fluctuations with $`T27`$ days, though the scatter of intividual values was quite significant. However it may be due to that fact that, 1996 being the year of solar minimum, the amplitude of the 27-day variation of $`B_q`$ (and hence he corresponding $`P_\nu `$ wave) was too small to be positively detected. In a year or two the situation may change.

Unfortunately, the data from other detectors (e.g. Neutrino–96) are practically useless for the analysis of $`P_\nu `$ and are not easily accessible.

II. Some speculations on the $`P_\nu (t)`$ modulation by $`B_q`$

The transverse magnetic field, modulating the neutrino, flux is usually estimated from the sunspot magnetic field, measured in the photosphere (Voloshin et al., 1986). However this procedure does not take into account the following:

1) The nature of sunspot magnetic fields is not quite clear. Are they “fragments” of the toroidal field that tear off and emerge as magnetic tubes in the photosphere, or do they proceed from the cut-off fields in the magnetic tube generation region? In the latter case, their intensity must be much lower, than the intensity of the original toroidal field. For more than a hundred year history of observations, the sunspot magnetic fields did not display cyclic variations of their intensity (H) that are characteristic of the corresponding toroidal dynamo field ($`B`$). Some authors (e.g., Vitinsky et al., 1986) argue that such periodicity in $`H`$ is absent, and the cyclic variation of solar activity is only manifested in the changing number of sunspots. This means that the sunspot magnetic fields are most likely due to the cut-off fields in the magnetic flux generation region (the generation mechanism was described, in particular, by Parker (1975)). In this case, the obtained estimate seems to be merely the lower limit of the real magnetic field value near the generation region.

2) Does the intensity of sunspot fields correspond to that of the fields at the base of the convection zone? This question arises in connection with the new model of cyclic variations of $`B_q`$, suggested by Obridko & Rivin (1996c) and developed by Rivin (1997, 1998).

The model suggests the existence of two independent, but related regions of magnetic field generation in the Sun. The upper dynamo mechanism at the center of the convection zone generates the field of quasi-axial dipole, changing with a period $`T22`$ years. This is where $`99\%`$ of the sunspots observed in the photosphere occur. Taking into account all said above about the possible origin of sunspot fields, one can suggest that the intensity of the toroidal field, generated by the aw-dynamo, may reach in this region $`15`$ kG (Steshenko, 1967). The lower dynamo of the quadrupole magnetic field with a probable period $`T27`$ days operates at the bottom of the convection zone, where the rotation is rigid. (It is $`\alpha \alpha `$ or some other dynamo mechanism, but not $`\alpha \omega `$). Due to a large radial density gradient in the convection zone (five to six orders of magnitude), part of the upper field is “pumped” away from the generation region to the base of the convection zone as a result of anisotropic turbulent pumping (ATP). As the ATP mechanism is nonlinear, the pumping is accompanied by a detection (a cycle with $`T11`$ years appears) and enhancement of the dipole field, and the latter modulates the lower dynamo and the amplitude of variations of the quadrupole magnetic field. It can be suggested that the neutrino flux from the solar interior is modulated simultaneously. In this case, the phase shift of about 1 year between the quadrupole and the neutrino flux variations, on the one hand, and the dipole field, on the other, is due to the downward pumping of the dipole field, that takes several times as long as the emergence of the quadrupole magnetic tubes to the photosphere. The emergence velocity depends on the magnetic field, $`B`$ (according to Parker (1975), $`V_bB/4\pi \rho `$, where $`\rho `$ is the matter density). Hence, one should expect in the modulation region the existence of strong magnetic fields with $`T11`$ years (probably 10-100 kG) and even stronger guadrupole fields, that could ensure a rapid ($`le12`$ months) emergence of the magnetic tubes. For the present, it is difficult to estimate the radial dimension of the modulation region and the lower dynamo region of the quadruple magnetic field. To judge from the relative difference between the real and the model seismic velocities (see Fig. 12 in Kosovichev et al., 1997), it makes $`R_{}`$, where $`R_{}`$ is the radius of the Sun.

The suggested model of generation of the 11-year magnetic cycle by two different mechanisms (Rivin, 1998b,c) accounts for the absence of semi-annual wave in the $`P_\nu `$ variation, that follows from the VVO hypothesis. This problem is discussed in detail in (Bahcall, 1989; Obridko & Rivin, 1995a, 1996a, 1998c).

According to VVO model, the neutrino flux is modulated by toroidal components of the axisymmetric quasi-dipole magnetic field in the solar convection zone. Only in this case, the components of opposite sign in different hemispheres could form an equatorial gap, where the field is weak, i.e. the flux modulation must be absent. However the model by Rivin (1998b,c) shows that no such gap is possible in the Sun, first, because the field in the modulation region is asymmetric between the hemispheres and, second, because the equatorial zone is filled with the magnetic tubes of the toroidal quadrupole large– scale magnetic field emerging from the transition layer to the photosphere.

With all these considerations taken into account, the VVO model quite adequately describes the cyclic modulation and the annual wave of the solar neutrino flux. The mechanism of quasi-biennial oscillations needs further investigation on the basis of up-to- date measurements with various detectors and the analysis of large-scale and local (sunspot) magnetic fields in the Sun.

III. Conclusion

The present-day knowledge brings us close to the problem of description and simulation of cyclic variations of magnetic fields in the solar interior, however we still cannot estimate the magnetic field in the lower dynamo region. Nevertheless, the correlation of cyclic variations of $`P_\nu `$ and $`B_q`$ shows that the main characteristics of the magnetic fields, the modulation region in the solar interior, and the magnetic moment of the solar neutrino are such as to suggest the reality of the neutrino modulation effect. It is the task for the nearest future to more exactly determine each of these values from observations of the large-scale magnetic fields on the solar surface, from helioseismologic data, as well as by detecting solar neutrino fluxes with up-to– date facilities that allow the study of their time variations. One of the urgent tasks is to analyze the probability of variation with $`T27`$ days and its subharmonics, and to compare this variation (if discovered) with the corresponding variation of the quadrupole solar magnetic field.

The authors are grateful to E.I.Prutenskaya for technical assistance in preparing the manuscript.

The work was done under the sponsorship of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grant N 96-02-17054) and the State Astronomy Program (grant N 4-264).

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