# Is the Large Magellanic Cloud a Large Microlensing Cloud?

## 1 INTRODUCTION

The location of the microlensing events towards the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) is a matter of controversy. Alcock et al. (1997a) assert that the lensing population lies in the Galactic halo and comprises perhaps $`50\%`$ of its total mass. Early suggestions that the LMC may provide the bulk of the lenses were made by Sahu (1994) and Wu (1994), and this location is favored by the data on the binary caustic crossing events (Kerins & Evans 1999). One of the main obstacles to general acceptance of this idea has been the sheer number of observed lensing events, which appear to be too great to be accommodated by the LMC alone. The experimental estimate of the microlensing optical depth $`\tau `$ towards the LMC is $`2.1_{0.8}^{+1.3}\times 10^7`$ (e.g., Bennett 1998). This is substantially greater than the optical depth of simple tilted disk models of the LMC. For example, Gould’s (1995) ingenious calculation involving the virial theorem sets the self-lensing optical depth of the LMC disk as $`1\times 10^8`$. Section 2 of this paper generalizes Gould’s analysis to provide upper limits on the self-lensing optical depth of thick models of the LMC disk. These values are smaller than, but of comparable magnitude to, the observations. So, it is reasonable to suggest that the microlensing signal may come either from a fattened LMC disk or a Milky Way halo only partly composed of lensing objects. The timescale distributions and the geometric pattern of events across the face of the LMC disk will of course be different in these two cases. The timescales of events for the same mass functions will be longer for lenses in the LMC as compared to those in the Milky Way halo as the lower velocity dispersion of the LMC outweighs the effects of the smaller Einstein radii. However, the use of the timescales as a discriminant is spoiled by the fact that there is no reason why the Milky Way halo and the LMC should have the same mass function. A more hopeful indicator may be the distribution of events across the face of the LMC disk. If the lenses lie in the Milky Way halo, the events will trace the surface density of the LMC, whereas if the lenses lie in the Clouds, the events will be more concentrated towards the dense bar and central regions, scaling like the surface density squared. How long will it take to distinguish between the two possibilities? Section 3 develops a maximum likelihood estimator that incorporates all the timescale and positional information to provide the answer to this question, both for the existing surveys like MACHO and for the next generation experiments like SuperMACHO (Stubbs 1998). Finally, Section 4 evaluates the strategies by which the riddle of the location of the lenses may be solved.

## 2 OBESE MAGELLANIC DISKS

Gould’s (1995) limit relates the self-lensing optical depth of any thin disk to its vertical velocity dispersion $`\sigma _z`$ via

$$\tau =2\frac{\sigma _{z}^{}{}_{}{}^{2}}{c^2}\mathrm{sec}^2i$$
(1)   
where $`c`$ is the velocity of light and $`i`$ is the inclination angle. Taking the observed velocity dispersion of CH stars as $`20\mathrm{kms}^1`$ (Cowley & Hartwick 1991) and the inclination angle $`i=27^{}`$ (de Vaucouleurs & Freeman 1973), Gould argued that the self-lensing optical depth of the LMC disk is likely to be $`1\times 10^8`$, which is some 20 times smaller than the observations. As Gould’s derivation depends only on the Poisson and Jeans equations for highly flattened geometries, the formula is clearly irreproachable. How could it be yielding misleading results as to the self-lensing optical depth? Consider a thought experiment in which a very thin disk is gradually surrounded by a flattened shell of matter, bounded by two similar concentric ellipsoids (a homoeoid). By Newton’s theorem, the attraction at any internal point of a homoeoid vanishes. So, the introduction of the homoeoid leaves the velocity dispersion in the thin disk quite unchanged. But, the self-lensing optical depth is strongly enhanced. In applying Gould’s formula, we must be very careful not to use the velocity dispersion of the thin disk, but rather the mass-weighted velocity dispersion of the entire configuration – otherwise we will obtain a misleadingly small answer. It is clearly worthwhile extending the calculations to more sophisticated, structure-rich models of the LMC, in which the self-lensing optical depth is written in terms of the velocity dispersion of the thin disk population (which is directly accessible to observations) instead of the mass-weighted velocity dispersion.

Let us now derive formulae for the self-lensing optical depth of an ensemble of $`n`$ exponential disks, each with a different scale height $`h_i`$, mid-plane density $`\rho _i`$ and column density $`\mathrm{\Sigma }_i=2\rho _ih_i`$. Clearly, this is a very idealized representation of the LMC, although similar models of the Milky Way disk have already proved useful (c.f., Gould 1989). The vertical density law for the disk is

$$\rho (z)=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{}}\rho _i\mathrm{exp}\left(\frac{|z|}{h_i}\right).$$
(2)   
The relationship between height $`z`$ and potential $`\varphi `$ is given by solving Poisson’s equation in the form appropriate for a flattened geometry (see Binney & Tremaine 1987, chap 2). Gould (1995) shows that the self-lensing optical depth of any thin disk with total column density $`\mathrm{\Sigma }`$ is

$$\tau =\frac{2\pi G\mathrm{\Sigma }\mathrm{sec}^2i}{c^2}_0^{\mathrm{}}𝑑z\{1[G(z)]^2\},G(z)=\frac{2}{\mathrm{\Sigma }}_0^z𝑑y\rho (y)$$
(3)   
For our ensemble of exponential disks we have

$$G(z)=1\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{}}F_i\mathrm{exp}\left(\frac{|z|}{h_i}\right).$$
(4)   
where $`F_i`$ is the mass fraction in each population. The self-lensing optical depth is now entirely analytic and given by

$$\tau =2\frac{\sigma _1^2}{c^2}\mathrm{sec}^2i\times \frac{1}{F_1h_1}\left[\frac{4}{3}\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{}}F_ih_i\frac{2}{3}\underset{i,j=1}{\overset{n}{}}\frac{F_iF_jh_ih_j}{h_i+h_j}\right],$$
(5)   
The formula has been written in terms of $`\sigma _1`$, which is the vertical velocity dispersion of the thinnest disk population only. It is the line-of-sight velocity dispersion of the youngest, thinnest populations in the LMC that are observationally reasonably well-determined. The Jeans equation has been solved under the assumption that the thinnest disk dominates the gravitational potential near the mid-plane. Our formula only assumes that the thinnest population is in equilibrium. It makes no assumptions as to the relationship between velocity dispersion and height for the thicker populations. It is therefore the appropriate formula for an equilibrium thin disk surrounded by dispersed and patchy populations of stars. Let us note that (5) really estimates the value of the optical depth near the LMC center (as the radial structure of the disk is ignored). The assumption that the disks are exponential rather than completely isothermal (that is, sech-squared) causes our estimates to be on the low side. The assumption that the line-of-sight velocity dispersion $`\sigma _{\mathrm{los}}`$ is roughly equal to the vertical velocity dispersion $`\sigma _z`$ causes our estimates to be on the high side. This correction factor depends on the uncertain shape of the velocity dispersion tensor in the LMC thin disk. If the velocity dispersions in the disk are well-approximated by epicyclic theory, then $`\sigma _\varphi ^2\sigma _z^20.45\sigma _R^2`$ (Binney & Tremaine, 1987, p. 199). In this case, $`\sigma _{\mathrm{los}}^2`$ overestimates $`\sigma _z^2`$ by $`(1+0.6\mathrm{sin}^2i)`$. Finally, in the limit of a single, thin disk ($`n=1`$), our result (5) reduces to Gould’s original formula, as it should.

Weinberg (1999) has described self-consistent simulations of the tidal forcing of the Magellanic Clouds by the Milky Way galaxy. He shows that the effect of this tidal heating is to fatten the structure of the LMC. He reports that $`1\%`$ of the disk mass has a height larger than 6 kpc (which we will call “the veil”) and $`10\%`$ above 3 kpc (“the shroud”). Let us devise a three component model of the LMC, composed of a massive thin disk surrounded by an intermediate shroud and an extended veil. To model the LMC, let us take the scale height of the thin disk as $`h_\mathrm{d}300\mathrm{pc}`$ (Bessell, Freeman & Wood 1986). The vertical velocity dispersion of the stars in this disk is $`30\mathrm{kms}^1`$. The scale heights of the shroud $`h_\mathrm{s}`$ and the veil $`h_\mathrm{v}`$ are $`3\mathrm{kpc}`$ and $`6\mathrm{kpc}`$ respectively. As suggested by Weinberg’s (1999) calculation, we put $`10\%`$ of the mass in the shroud and $`1\%`$ in the veil. De Vaucouleurs & Freeman (1973) estimated the inclination angle of the LMC to be $`27^{}`$ by assuming that the optical and 21 cm HI isophotes should be circular. This is not likely to be a good approximation for such an irregular structure like the LMC, and so this widely-used value of the inclination angle is at least open to some doubt. More recently, evidence from detailed fitting of the surface photometry (excluding the star forming regions) and from the low frequency radio observations (which are less sensitive to local effects) suggest a higher value of the inclination angle of the main disk of $`i45^{}`$ (see e.g., Alvarez, Aparici & May 1987; Bothun & Thomson 1988). Westerlund (1997) reviews all the evidence and argues that this higher value of the inclination is most likely. We will consider both possibilities. When $`10\%`$ of the mass is in the shroud and $`1\%`$ in the veil, the self-lensing optical depth is $`0.7\times 10^7`$ if $`i=27^{}`$ and $`1.1\times 10^7`$ if $`i=45^{}`$. Figure 1 shows how the self-lensing optical depth varies as the mass fractions in the shroud and the veil are changed. Marked on Figure 1 are the contours corresponding to the best observational estimate of $`2.1\times 10^7`$, together with the $`1\sigma `$ and $`2\sigma `$ lower limits. If the mass fractions are increased to $`15\%`$ and $`5\%`$ respectively, then the optical depth is $`1.2\times 10^7`$ if $`i=27^{}`$ and $`1.9\times 10^7`$ if $`i=45^{}`$. These values are comparable to the observed optical depth of $`2.1_{0.8}^{+1.3}\times 10^7`$ (Bennett 1998). On moving to the larger inclination, the assumption that the line-of-sight dispersion is roughly equal to the vertical velocity dispersion becomes less valid. Using our earlier correction based on epicyclic theory, some $`15\%`$ of the increase in the optical depth on moving to the larger inclination of $`45^{}`$ is spurious. However, the important conclusion to draw from these calculations is that it requires comparatively little luminous material at higher scale heights above the LMC thin disk to give a substantial boost to the optical depth.

There is one obvious difficulty with this suggestion. There are no visible tracers in the LMC with a velocity dispersion greater than $`33\mathrm{kms}^1`$ (Hughes, Wood & Reid 1991; Westerlund 1997). If in equilibrium, any luminous material belonging to disks with scale heights of $`3\mathrm{kpc}`$ or $`6\mathrm{kpc}`$ must have a larger velocity dispersion than observed. For example, the tidal heating mechanism advocated by Weinberg (1999) must produce some visible hot tracers. The stars that are heated are expected to have the same luminosity function as those that remain in the thin disk. There are two possible loopholes in this line of argument. First, it might be possible for a metal-rich, old population with a large velocity dispersion to have eluded detection. Second, the relationship between scale height and velocity dispersion applies only to steady-state equilibrium models. If this is not the case, then it may be possible for populations to be dispersed at larger heights above the LMC thin disk than suggested by their vertical velocity dispersion. It is worth cautioning that equilibrium models of the LMC may be a poor guide to interpreting the kinematics. In particular, no equilibrium models of galaxies with off-centered bars are presently known, either analytically or as the endpoints of N body experiments. If both these loopholes are closed, then the last possibility is that any lenses in the larger scale height populations must be dark or at very least dim – perhaps low mass stars or compact objects. This is difficult to rule out, although there are no obvious natural mechanisms to produce such components. In this case, our self-lensing formula (5) will overestimate the microlensing optical depth, as the population of lenses and sources do not coincide. It should be replaced by

$$\tau =\frac{2}{3}\frac{\sigma _1^2}{c^2}\mathrm{sec}^2i\times \frac{1}{F_1h_1}\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{}}F_ih_i$$
(6)   
For the same mass fractions $`F_i`$, the optical depths (6) are reduced by a typical factor of $`3`$ from our earlier self-lensing estimates (5). Aubourg et al. (1999) and Salati et al. (1999) have recently advanced models of the LMC surrounded by swathes of low mass stars and suggested that they could provide most of the observed microlensing optical depth, although others have contested this (e.g., Gyuk, Dalal & Griest 1999).

## 3 THE LOCATION OF THE LENSES

Can the positions and timescales of the microlensing events be used to determine whether the dominant lens population lies in the LMC or in the Milky Way halo? The Bayesian likelihood estimator employed by Alcock et al. (1997a) can be extended to consider lenses from multiple galactic components distributed over a finite solid angle. For an experiment of lifetime $`T`$ in which $`N(T)`$ events are observed with Einstein diameter crossing durations $`\widehat{t}_i`$ and Galactic coordinates $`l_i,b_i`$ ($`i=1\mathrm{}N`$), one can ascribe a likelihood $`L`$, where

$$\mathrm{ln}L(f_{1\mathrm{}n},\varphi _{1\mathrm{}n})=\underset{j=1}{\overset{n}{}}f_j𝒩(\varphi _j,T)+\underset{i=1}{\overset{N(T)}{}}\mathrm{ln}\left[\sigma (l_i,b_i)(\widehat{t}_i,l_i,b_i,T)\underset{j=1}{\overset{n}{}}f_j\frac{\mathrm{d}\mathrm{\Gamma }(\varphi _j,l_i,b_i)}{\mathrm{d}\widehat{t}_i}\right],$$
(7)   
to a galactic model comprising $`j=1\mathrm{}n`$ components, each component being characterised by a lens fraction $`f_j`$ and mass function $`\varphi _j`$. In the above formula, $`\mathrm{\Gamma }`$ is the theoretical event rate, $``$ is the detection efficiency, $`\sigma `$ is the number of sources per unit solid angle and

$$𝒩(\varphi _j,T)=T\sigma (l,b)(\widehat{t},l,b,T)\frac{\mathrm{d}\mathrm{\Gamma }(\varphi _j,l,b)}{\mathrm{d}\widehat{t}}d\widehat{t}dl\mathrm{d}(\mathrm{sin}b)$$
(8)   
is the number of events predicted for component $`j`$ when $`f_j=1`$. The spatial variation of microlensing events has been studied before by Gyuk (1999), though using the optical depth and rate rather than the timescales (and with the emphasis on the inner Galaxy).

Let us set up two competing models. In the first, the Milky Way halo provides the dominant lens population, although there is some residual contribution from the stars in the LMC disk and bar. In the second, there is no Milky Way halo and the LMC disk and bar are augmented by the existence of an enveloping shroud and veil, so that all the lenses reside close to or in the LMC. The density laws describing the components are summarised in Table 1. In both cases, the LMC disk and bar are populated with lens masses $`m`$ drawn from the ordinary stellar disk population. The broken power-law

$`\varphi _{\mathrm{LMC}}`$ $``$ $`m^\gamma (m_\mathrm{L}=0.08\mathrm{M}_{}mm_\mathrm{U}=10\mathrm{M}_{}),`$   
$`\gamma `$ $`=`$ $`\{\begin{array}{cc}0.75\hfill & (m_\mathrm{L}m<0.5\mathrm{M}_{})\hfill \\ 2.2\hfill & (0.5\mathrm{M}_{}mm_\mathrm{U})\hfill \end{array}`$ (11)   
describes the LMC stellar mass function (c.f., Hill, Madore & Freedman 1994; Gould, Bahcall & Flynn 1997). For our Milky Way halo, we adopt a $`\delta `$-function

$$\varphi _\mathrm{h}\frac{1}{m}\delta (mm_{\mathrm{dark}})$$
(12)   
as characterising the lens mass. For the competing LMC-only model, there is an extended shroud and veil (hereafter collectively referred to simply as the shroud) enveloping the LMC stellar disk and bar. For simplicity, let us investigate the case in which the shroud consists primarily of dark lenses (either remnants or low-mass stars). Since the Milky Way halo and LMC shroud populations are both dark, we always make comparisons assuming the same lens mass $`m_{\mathrm{dark}}`$. For this calculation, we make the simplifying assumption that the LMC is virialized, so that any increase in the mass of the shroud implies a corresponding increase in its velocity dispersion. This is important because changes in the velocity dispersion affect the derived lens timescale distribution. Suppose the ratio of the disk to shroud masses is originally $`r`$. Then if the mass of our shroud is increased by a factor $`f_\mathrm{s}`$, the virial theorem indicates that the velocity dispersion increases by a factor $`f_\sigma =\sqrt{(f_\mathrm{s}+r)/(1+r)}`$. We must also make the corresponding transformations $`\widehat{t}f_\sigma ^1\widehat{t}`$ and $`\mathrm{d}\mathrm{\Gamma }/\mathrm{d}\widehat{t}f_\sigma ^2f_\mathrm{s}\mathrm{d}\mathrm{\Gamma }/\mathrm{d}\widehat{t}`$.

Let us proceed by simulating microlensing experiments over a range of lifetimes $`T`$. We assume the Milky Way halo is an isothermal spherical halo of amplitude $`v_0=220\mathrm{kms}^1`$. A fraction $`f_\mathrm{h}`$ of the halo comprises lenses of mass $`m_{\mathrm{dark}}`$. This provides us with our input model with which to generate “observed” events. The expected number of events for an experiment of lifetime $`T`$ is simply $`𝒩(T)=𝒩(\varphi _{\mathrm{LMC}},T)+f_\mathrm{h}𝒩(\varphi _\mathrm{h},T)`$, where $`𝒩(\varphi _{\mathrm{LMC}},T)`$ and $`𝒩(\varphi _\mathrm{h},T)`$ are obtained from eqn (8). We then generate a Poisson realisation $`N(T)`$ for the number of observed events. We approximate the current generation of microlensing surveys by an ideal experiment which monitors the central $`3^{}\times 3^{}`$ of the LMC. For each event a location is generated from within this region using the distribution

$$P(l,b|T)\sigma (l,b)(\widehat{t},l,b,T)\left[\frac{\mathrm{d}\mathrm{\Gamma }(\varphi _{\mathrm{LMC}},l,b)}{\mathrm{d}\widehat{t}}+f_\mathrm{h}\frac{\mathrm{d}\mathrm{\Gamma }(\varphi _\mathrm{h},l,b)}{\mathrm{d}\widehat{t}}\right]d\widehat{t},$$
(13)   
which traces the event number density as a function of position. The Einstein diameter crossing time $`\widehat{t}`$ is generated from the distribution

$$P(\widehat{t}|l,b,T)(\widehat{t},l,b,T)\left[\frac{\mathrm{d}\mathrm{\Gamma }(\varphi _{\mathrm{LMC}},l,b)}{\mathrm{d}\widehat{t}}+f_\mathrm{h}\frac{\mathrm{d}\mathrm{\Gamma }(\varphi _\mathrm{h},l,b)}{\mathrm{d}\widehat{t}}\right].$$
(14)   
The detection efficiency $``$ is not just a function of $`\widehat{t}`$ and $`T`$, but also Galactic coordinates $`l`$ and $`b`$. The spatial dependency of $``$ has not yet been assessed by any of the current experiments and is inevitably experiment-specific. In the following analysis we consider an idealized microlensing survey in which the spatial dependency is sufficiently weak to be neglected. This is not a good assumption for the current LMC microlensing surveys which do not observe all regions with the same frequency, but the method we present is general and can be used to take account of spatial variations in efficiencies when these become available. As microlensing experiments continue, they become more sensitive to longer duration events. However, the efficiency $``$ does not approach unity because of photometric limits imposed by the observing conditions. Instead one might anticipate, say, a limiting efficiency $`_{\mathrm{max}}0.5`$. We propose the following model for the time evolution of the efficiency for our ideal experiment:

$$=\{\begin{array}{cc}\mathrm{max}[0,_{\mathrm{short}}(\widehat{t})]\hfill & (\widehat{t}<\widehat{t}_{\mathrm{peak}})\hfill \\ \mathrm{max}[0,_{\mathrm{short}}(\widehat{t}_{\mathrm{peak}})]\mathrm{exp}\{[\mathrm{log}(\widehat{t}_{\mathrm{peak}}/\widehat{t})/0.5]^2\}\hfill & (\widehat{t}\widehat{t}_{\mathrm{peak}})\hfill \end{array}$$
(15)   
where

$$\widehat{t}_{\mathrm{peak}}=0.12T_{\mathrm{short}}=\mathrm{min}\{_{\mathrm{max}},0.2[\mathrm{log}(\widehat{t}/\text{days})0.38]\}_{\mathrm{max}}=0.5.$$
(16)   
Here, $`\widehat{t}_{\mathrm{peak}}`$ is the Einstein diameter crossing time at which the efficiency peaks, which of course depends on the experiment lifetime $`T`$. As Figure 2 shows, the model (dashed lines) provides an excellent approximation of the Alcock et al. (1997a) 2.1-year efficiencies (solid line). It is also broadly consistent with provisional 4-year MACHO efficiency estimates (Sutherland 1999). Note from Figure 2 that the limiting efficiency $`_{\mathrm{max}}`$ is not reached until $`T20`$ years, much longer than the nominal lifetime of the MACHO experiment. Let us emphasize that this model is only a plausible representation of how the efficiencies for the current generation of microlensing experiments might evolve.

We can now use simulated datasets to compute likelihoods for any desired theoretical model via eqn (7). For the dataset, we calculate the likelihood $`L_\mathrm{h}`$ for the input (true) halo, LMC disk and bar parameters. Let the likelihood of the competing model of a shrouded LMC disk and bar be $`L_\mathrm{s}`$. The ratio $`L_\mathrm{s}/L_\mathrm{h}`$ then provides a direct measure of the preference of the dataset for the (true) halo model or (false) shroud model. Given just these two alternatives, we can define a discrimination measure

$$D=\frac{L_\mathrm{h}}{L_\mathrm{s}+L_\mathrm{h}}$$
(17)   
which is the probability, given the data, that the halo rather than the shroud, represents the underlying model. Individual datasets can be misleading, so we generate a large ensemble of datasets for every experiment lifetime $`T`$. (Specifically, we use either $`10^5`$ datasets or a cumulative total of $`3\times 10^6`$ events, whichever is reached first). From the resulting distribution of $`D`$ values, it is possible to assess not just the degree of discrimination for a particular dataset between the input and comparison model, but also the likelihood of obtaining a dataset with at least that level of discrimination.

In Figure 3, we plot $`D_{95}`$ (that is, the $`95\%`$ lower limit on $`D`$) computed from the ensemble of simulated datasets, for a variety of input and comparison models (all assuming $`f_\mathrm{s}=1`$) for experiments with a lifespan of up to 20 years. The figure clearly illustrates how much longer it takes to distinguish between the competing models for smaller halo fractions and larger lens masses. For halo fractions $`f_\mathrm{h}0.3`$, we expect our experiment to clearly distinguish between the two models after about 5 years if $`m_{\mathrm{dark}}0.5\mathrm{M}_{}`$. The amount of time $`T`$ required to decisively reject the shroud model is about twice as long for lens masses $`m_{\mathrm{dark}}=0.5\mathrm{M}_{}`$ than for $`m_{\mathrm{dark}}=0.1\mathrm{M}_{}`$, and this is due to the larger number of events typically observed for the lower mass lenses. If our ideal experiment is indicative of the progress of the MACHO survey, it seems that even after 10 years the experiment may still be unable to clearly distinguish between the halo and shrouded LMC models if $`f_\mathrm{h}0.1`$ and $`m_{\mathrm{dark}}0.1\mathrm{M}_{}`$.

Table 2 shows the experimental lifetime $`T`$, in years, required to constrain $`D_{95}>0.95`$, at which point $`95\%`$ of datasets clearly reject the shroud model. The limits displayed in Figure 3 are summarised in columns 2–4 of table 2. Columns 5–7 show the equivalent limits if one employs a likelihood statistic that does not take into account the spatial distribution of the events. Columns 8–10 are for a shroud mass factor half as large as assumed in figure 3. For columns 5–7, we have assumed that the timescale distribution at all locations is the same as the distribution for the line of sight through the LMC centre. We see that the spatial distribution of events becomes an increasingly important discriminant for halos of lower lens fraction and lenses of larger mass. In the case where $`f_\mathrm{h}=0.1`$, the incorporation of the angular distribution of events into the likelihood statistic greatly enhances the sensitivity of the analysis to the lens population. In this case the number of generated events are similar for the competing halo and shroud models, and so the spatial distribution becomes an important discriminatory factor. Comparing columns 2–4 with columns 8–10, where a shroud mass factor $`f_\mathrm{s}=0.5`$ is assumed, we see that less massive LMC disks are easier to distinguish. The overall constraints for $`f_\mathrm{s}=0.5`$ are stronger for a given $`T`$ than those for $`f_\mathrm{s}=1`$ because the halo events always outnumber LMC events. The relative constraints for different $`f_\mathrm{h}`$ and $`m_{\mathrm{dark}}`$ are similar for both values of $`f_\mathrm{s}`$; LMC and halo models with $`m_{\mathrm{dark}}=0.5\mathrm{M}_{}`$ are about twice as difficult to differentiate as those with $`m_{\mathrm{dark}}=0.1\mathrm{M}_{}`$.

Stubbs (1998) has proposed a next generation microlensing survey (provisionally dubbed “SuperMACHO”) capable of detecting events at a rate at least an order of magnitude greater than current experiments. Gould (1999) finds that coverage of the whole LMC disk is the key to maximizing the returns of such a survey. In Figure 4 we compare the discrimination capability of SuperMACHO with that of current surveys, assuming that SuperMACHO commences nine years after the current surveys, and that the current experiments are continued through the next decade (in reality, the current surveys are scheduled to terminate in the next few years). Let us assume that the SuperMACHO angular coverage will be as suggested by Gould (1999), namely $`11^{}\times 11^{}`$ centered on the LMC bar, that the number of detected events will be ten times greater than current yields, and that the detection efficiency evolves according to equations (15) and (16). In reality the SuperMACHO detection efficiency is likely to be qualitatively different than for the current experiments because many of the central fields will be strongly blended.

In Figure 4 we have re-plotted the $`95\%`$ limit on the discriminatory power ($`D_{95}`$) of current surveys for the case $`f_\mathrm{h}=0.1`$, $`m_{\mathrm{dark}}=0.5\mathrm{M}_{}`$ (solid line). This time we plot $`D_{95}`$ against epoch rather than experiment lifetime. We adopt 1992.5 as the start of the current surveys (it actually corresponds to the start of the MACHO survey) with the SuperMACHO survey, shown by the dashed line, is assumed to start in 2001. Whilst current surveys would take 20 years to distinguish clearly between LMC and halo populations for this model, SuperMACHO takes only 18 months to reach the same level of discrimination. SuperMACHO will surpass the sensitivity of current surveys within a year of starting (if it indeed starts on the assumed date). A survey along the lines of SuperMACHO represents one of the best ways to discriminate statistically between halo and LMC lens populations in the next few years.

## 4 CONCLUSIONS

It is possible to build models of the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) with microlensing optical depths that are comparable to, although lower than, the observations. Such models are fatter than is conventional, with material extending to scale heights of $`6`$ kpc above the plane of the LMC disk, as is suggested by Weinberg’s (1999) numerical simulations of the evolution of the LMC in the tidal field of the Milky Way. This paper has derived the formula for the self-lensing optical depth of an equilibrium thin disk surrounded by stars dispersed at greater scale heights. As a shorthand, we call such material the shroud, even though its distribution may be quite patchy. When $`10\%`$ of the total column density is in the shroud, the self-lensing optical depth is typically between $`0.7\times 10^7`$ and $`1.1\times 10^7`$. The self-lensing optical depth rises to between $`1.2\times 10^7`$ and $`1.9\times 10^7`$ when $`20\%`$ of the column density is in the shroud. These figures should be compared to the observational estimate of $`2.1_{0.8}^{+1.3}\times 10^7`$. Provisional estimates using the 4-year dataset suggest that the optical depth may be lower (Sutherland 1999). Additionally, the difficulty of reproducing the high optical depths reported by both Udalski et al. (1994) and Alcock et al. (1997b) towards the Galactic Center using barred models of the inner Galaxy (e.g., Häfner et al. 1999) hints at a possible systematic over-estimate afflicting the experimental values. Clearly, the suggestion that almost all the microlensing events emanate at or close to the LMC cannot be dismissed lightly.

The difficulty with fattening the LMC disk is that there are no known LMC populations with a line of sight velocity dispersion exceeding $`33\mathrm{kms}^1`$ (Hughes et al. 1991). Stars in equilibrium in a thick disk with a scale height of $`3\mathrm{kpc}`$ typically possess a larger velocity dispersion than this. One possibility is that the shroud stars belong to an old, metal-rich population that could have evaded detection. More likely, perhaps, is that the material in the shroud is not in a steady-state at all. Its spatial distribution may be quite patchy, making it difficult to pick out against the bright central bar. A final option is that the shroud is composed of dark or dim material, such as low mass stars or compact objects (c.f. Aubourg et al. 1999). Self-lensing optical depths then overestimate the true optical depth by a factor of $`3`$, though this may be partly compensated by increasing the mass fraction in the shroud. The idea is tantamount to enveloping the LMC in its own dark halo. So, a shrouded LMC may not dispense with the need for compact dark matter. It merely re-locates it from the Milky Way halo to the LMC, though of course a much lower total mass budget in compact objects is implied. A dark shroud is difficult to rule out, although there is no obvious way to arrange the low mass stars or compact objects around the LMC thin disk.

It is natural to hope that the spatial distribution of events across the face of the LMC disk and the timescale information can be used to identify the main location of the lenses. In some circumstances, an experiment lifetime of $`<5`$ years is sufficient to decide between the competing claims of Milky Way halo lenses and LMC lenses. However, there is an awkward régime in which fattened LMC disks can mimic anorexic halos and several decades of survey work are needed for discrimination. The difficult models to distinguish are Milky Way halos in which the lens fraction is very low ($`f_\mathrm{h}<0.1`$) and obese LMC disks composed of lenses with a typical mass of low luminosity stars or greater, $`m_{\mathrm{dark}}0.1\mathrm{M}_{}`$. This suggests that the timescales and the geometric distribution of the microlensing events may not be sufficient for an unambiguous resolution of the puzzle of the origin of the lenses within the lifetime of the current surveys.

One suggested approach to this problem is to employ a much more sensitive microlensing survey covering the whole LMC disk, not just the regions around the bar. The proposed “SuperMACHO” survey (Stubbs 1998) should be able to discriminate between even anorexic halos and fattened LMC disks within 18 months of starting. So, the commencement of a program like SuperMACHO represents one of the most promising ways to answer this question in the next few years. In the meantime, we may still hope to differentiate between the lens locations using data from binary caustic crossing events and from the presence or absence of parallax events. As Kerins & Evans (1999) have already argued, the former are a particularly powerful diagnostic. If the next binary caustic crossing event has a high projected velocity, then this securely establishes a lensing component in the Milky Way halo. If the next binary caustic crossing event has a low projected velocity, then – given the existing dataset – it becomes overwhelmingly likely that most of the lenses lie in a fattened LMC. This method, though, does suffer from a possible bias if the Milky Way halo is under-endowed with binaries.

In the longer term, a definitive test is to measure simultaneously the photometric and astrometric microlensing signals of a few events with the Space Interferometry Mission (SIM), which is currently scheduled for launch in mid 2005. This suggestion has been advanced by Boden, Shao & van Buren (1998) and Gould & Salim (1999). It enables the unambiguous identification of the lens location at the cost of about 20 hours exposure time per event with SIM. Since this method is able to discern the location of the lenses on an event-by-event basis, rather than by ensemble likelihood statistics, SIM and SuperMACHO should provide useful and complementary datasets. One way or another, the location of the lenses will be known within five years or so.

We thank Ken Freeman, Andy Gould, Geza Gyuk, Paul Schechter and Will Sutherland for a number of helpful conversations and suggestions. Martin Weinberg and Pierre Salati kindly forwarded material in advance of publication. NWE is supported by the Royal Society, while EK acknowledges financial support from PPARC (grant number GS/1997/00311).