# 1 Introduction

## 1 Introduction

The corrections needed to account for dust extinction in high–redshift galaxies are rather uncertain, and might induce an upward revision of the star formation rates (SFR) deduced from UV/visible observations by factors of a few ( ). Moreover, star formation might be completely hidden in heavily–extinguished galaxies which are missed at optical wavelengths. The discovery of the Cosmic Infrared Background in the FIRAS residuals between 200 $`\mu `$m and 2 mm ( , ) and in the DIRBE residuals at 240 and 140 $`\mu `$m () is a strong evidence that a significant fraction of star formation is hidden in dust shrouds. The level of the CIRB is more than five times higher than the “no–evolution” prediction based on the IRAS luminosity function, and twice as much as the level of the Cosmic Optical Background deduced from converging faint galaxy counts.

Recent observations at 850 $`\mu `$m with the SCUBA instrument of the JCMT ( ) have unveiled a large population of dusty objects. At the other end of the submm range, the FIRBACK program with ISOPHOT aboard ISO has yielded a catalogue of several hundred sources at 175 $`\mu `$m (). The number counts are much higher than the “no–evolution” predictions. Preliminary attempts for identification seem to show that many of these objects are likely to be at $`z>1`$.

We hereafter briefly describe a new modelling of galaxy formation ( ), and show predictions for on–going and forthcoming IR/submm surveys.

## 2 Dust spectra in a semi–analytic framework

The IR/submm spectra of galaxies are computed in the following way: (1) follow chemical evolution of the gas; (2) implement extinction curves which depend on metallicity as in the Milky Way, the LMC and SMC; (3) compute $`\tau _\lambda `$; (4) assume the so–called “slab” geometry where the star and dust components are homogeneously mixed with equal height scales. (5) compute a spectral energy distribution by assuming a mix of various dust components. The contributions are fixed in order to reproduce the observational correlation of IRAS colours with total IR luminosity.

These IR/submm spectra are implemented in a semi–analytic model of galaxy formation and evolution. This type of model has been very effective in computing the optical properties of galaxies in the paradigm of hierarchical clustering. We only extend this approach to the IR/submm range, and take the standard CDM case with $`H_0`$=50, $`\mathrm{\Omega }_0=1`$, $`\mathrm{\Lambda }=0`$ and $`\sigma _8=0.67`$. We assume a Star Formation Rate $`SFR(t)=M_{gas}/t_{}`$, with $`t_{}\beta t_{dyn}`$. The efficiency parameter $`1/\beta =0.01`$ gives a nice fit of local spirals. The robust result of this type of modelling is a rather flat cosmic star formation rate history. As a phenomenological way of reproducing the steep rise of the cosmic SFR history from $`z=0`$ to $`z=1`$, we introduce a “burst” mode of star formation with ten times higher efficiencies. This fairly reproduces the cosmic luminosity densities, as well as the CIRB.

Fig. 1 gives the predictions of number counts at 15, 60, 175 and 850 $`\mu `$m for the scenario which gives the best fit of the CIRB. The agreement of the predictions with the data seems good enough to suggest that these counts do probe the evolving population contributing to the CIRB. The model shows that 15 % and 60 % of the CIRB respectively at 175 $`\mu `$m and 850 $`\mu `$m are built up by objects brighter than the current limits of ISOPHOT and SCUBA deep fields. The predicted median redshift of the ISO–HDF is $`z0.8`$. It increases to $`z1.5`$ for the deep ISOPHOT surveys, and to $`z2`$ for SCUBA, even if the latter value seems to be very sensitive to the details of evolution.

## 3 Future surveys with PLANCK and FIRST

Fig. 2 gives a model spectral energy distribution typical of the $`L_{bol}=10^{12}`$ $`L_{bol}`$ galaxy (similar to Arp 220) at various redshifts. The reader should note the specific behaviour of the observed flux at submm wavelengths, where the shift of the 60 – 100 $`\mu `$m rest–frame emission bump counterbalances distance dimming. The instrumental sensitivities of various on–going and forthcoming experiments are plotted on this diagram: the IRAS Very Faint Source Survey, ISOCAM, ISOPHOT, the IRAM interferometer, SCUBA, WIRE, SIRTF, SOFIA, the PLANCK High Frequency Instrument, the FIRST Spectral and Photometric Imaging REceiver, and the MMA/LSA.

The final sensitivity of these instruments is going to be confusion limited. Table 1 gives the expected numbers of galaxies for the all–sky shallow survey of PLANCK HFI, and the medium–deep survey of FIRST SPIRE (to be launched by ESA in 2007), obtained from the model that fits the current counts. Faint counts produced by these two instruments are complementary. The study of the $`250/350`$ and $`350/500`$ colours are suited to point out sources which are likely to be at high redshifts. These sources can be eventually followed at 100 and 170 $`\mu `$m by the FIRST Photoconductor Array Camera & Spectrometer and by the FTS mode of SPIRE, to get the spectral energy distribution at $`200\lambda 600`$ $`\mu `$m with a typical resolution $`R\lambda /\mathrm{\Delta }\lambda =20`$.

| Table 1. Predicted counts with PLANCK HFI and FIRST SPIRE. | | | |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| $`\lambda `$ | resolution | $`\sigma _{tot}`$ | $`N(>5\sigma _{tot})`$ |
| HFI 350 $`\mu `$m | 5’ | 180 mJy | 5400 |
| HFI 550 $`\mu `$m | 5’ | 100 mJy | 3800 |
| HFI 850 $`\mu `$m | 5’ | 50 mJy | 3100 |
| SPIRE 250 $`\mu `$m | 18” | 3 mJy | 70000<sup>∗∗</sup> |
| SPIRE 350 $`\mu `$m | 25” | 3.2 mJy | 60000<sup>∗∗</sup> |
| SPIRE 500 $`\mu `$m | 36” | 4 mJy | 27000<sup>∗∗</sup> |

: 12 month nominal mission, 8 sr survey.

<sup>∗∗</sup>: 3000 h medium–deep survey, 900 sec/pointing, 60 deg<sup>2</sup>.

The FIRST satellite is ideally designed to probe the bulk of the 60 – 100 $`\mu `$m rest–frame emission of galaxies at $`1<z<4`$, and to recover the early SFR history of the universe. Our knowledge of the optically dark side of high–redshift galaxies should increase spectacularly in the forthcoming years.