# A Semi-Empirical Model of the Infra-Red Universe

## 1 Introduction

Recent observations of the infra-red (IR) and sub-millimeter (sub-mm) extra-galactic background (Puget et al 1996; Fixsen et al 1998; Burigana & Popa 1998; Schlegel, Finkbeiner & Davis 1998; Hauser et al 1998; Dwek et al 1998; Biller et al 1998) provide powerful constraints on models of galaxy evolution, since a large fraction ($`2/3`$) of stellar energy release, after reprocessing by dust, is emitted in this part of the spectrum. Various number count surveys are also being pursued across the waveband, from SCUBA at $`850\mu \mathrm{m}`$ (Blain et al 1999; Smail et al 1998), to ISO at $`175\mu \mathrm{m}`$ (Puget et al 1998) and $`15\mu \mathrm{m}`$ (Aussel et al 1998; Altieri at al 1998). All of the evidence points to strong evolution in the galaxy population as we look out to high redshift. We would like to try and understand this behavior.

Several groups have attempted to model the IR and sub-mm emission from galaxies, using forward evolution models (Blain & Longair 1993; Franceschini et al 1994; Guiderdoni et al 1998; Jimenez & Kashlinsky 1998; Trentham, Blain and Goldader 1999). Guiderdoni’s model is one of the most detailed. They model structure formation in the Cold Dark Matter (CDM) cosmological scenario, and introduce star formation with various recipes for “quiet-disk”, “burst” and “ultra-luminous” sources. The relative fractions of these populations and the timescales of star formation are free parameters in their model. By tuning these they are able to reproduce current observations, but there is a lack of physical motivation in many of their assumptions concerning the number and luminosity evolution of their populations.

In contrast to these models, Malkan & Stecker (1998) present a simple, empirically based calculation of the IR background. Using observed luminosity functions and spectral energy distributions, they predict reasonable values for the background flux by implementing various schemes of galaxy evolution. However, these prescriptions are still without a sound physical basis.

Pei, Fall & Hauser (1998) present yet a different approach. They consider the evolution of the global stellar, gaseous, chemical and radiation contents of the Universe. As inputs they use observations of the extra-galactic background, interstellar gas density history from damped Ly$`\alpha `$ surveys and the rest frame ultra-violet emissivity history from optical galaxy surveys. They derive cosmic histories of star formation, metallicity and radiation from stars and dust. Their global approach cannot distinguish between the different types of star formation processes in galaxies, such as in disks and starbursts, and thus comparison to galaxy number count surveys is difficult.

This work approaches the problem in a semi-empirical manner, somewhere in between the above extremes. The model makes use of reliable empirical results where they exist. For example, the spectra and luminosity functions of galaxies in the IR have been well determined by the IRAS satellite (Saunders et al 1990; Malkan & Stecker 1998). The star formation rate (SFR) history of the Milky Way’s disk is empirically derived from local observations, and then applied globally to all disks, assuming our galaxy is typical of these systems. We present a simple physical model relating SFR history to the IR luminosity, including dust, gas and spectral evolution. Apart from disks, observations of IR sources in the local universe, also reveal many high-luminosity, interacting systems, which appear to be undergoing an intense burst of star formation (Sanders & Mirabel 1996). These systems have been termed starbursts. We develop a physical model for the evolution of this population, assuming they result from mergers and strong tidal interactions between gas rich systems. The final theoretical input to the model is the evolution of the number density and average mass of the disk systems. This is obtained from the model of collision-induced galaxy formation (Balland, Silk & Schaeffer 1998, hereafter BSS98), which attributes galactic morphology to the number of collisions and tidal interactions suffered by a particular galaxy.

We evolve the present day populations of disks and starbursts backwards in time, out to high redshift. This approach results in relatively few free parameters. Without fine tuning, we predict number counts in various wavebands and the IR and sub-mm extra-galactic background, which agree remarkably well with observations. We present the details of the model in §2, our results in §3 and our conclusions in §4.

## 2 The Model

We model the evolution of two distinct populations which contribute significant flux in the IR and sub-mm: disk galaxies and starbursts. The latter we define to be systems undergoing a violent merger or strong tidal interaction, which leads to high rates of heavily obscured star formation and the creation of a spheroidal stellar system or component. An Einstein-de Sitter cosmology has been assumed with $`H_0=\mathrm{\hspace{0.25em}50}\mathrm{km}\mathrm{s}^1\mathrm{Mpc}^1`$. Thus $`t_0=13.0`$ Gyr. A summary of the model parameters, which are described below, is shown in Table 1.

### 2.1 Disk galaxies

We take the present day IR luminosity function of disk galaxies to be well described by the IRAS far-IR (FIR) luminosity function (Saunders et al 1990) below a certain threshold luminosity, $`L_{cut}`$:

$$\mathrm{\Phi }^{disk}(L)=\{\begin{array}{cc}0\hfill & L<L_{min}\hfill \\ C^{disk}(z)(L/L_{}^{disk}(z))^{1\alpha }\mathrm{exp}\left[\frac{1}{2\sigma ^2}\mathrm{log}_{10}^2\left(1+\frac{L}{L_{}^{disk}(z)}\right)\right]\hfill & L_{min}<L<L_{cut}\hfill \\ 0\hfill & L>L_{cut}\text{,}\hfill \end{array}$$
(1)   
where $`C_0^{disk}=2.6\times 10^2h^3\mathrm{Mpc}^3`$, $`L_{}^{disk}=10^{8.77}h^2L_{}`$ and $`\alpha =1.09`$. We take $`L_{min}=10^5h^2L_{}`$. Observationally, the luminosity function is not well constrained at these low luminosities, but the extra-galactic background and, for the flux range of interest, the number counts are insensitive to the choice of $`L_{min}`$. We take the upper limit to be $`L_{cut}5.6\times 10^{10}h^2L_{}`$ (Sanders & Mirabel 1996). This defines the difference between disk-like systems and starbursts, which are modeled in §2.2. The effect of the precise choice of $`L_{cut}`$ is examined in §3. Note, the above numerical values of $`L_{min}`$, $`L_{}^{disk}`$ and $`L_{cut}`$ are defined for $`z=0`$.

Following Malkan & Stecker (1998), we divide the IRAS luminosity function into seven different spectral classes, ranging from $`10^3`$ to $`10^3L_{}`$. The spectra of these classes are derived empirically from their IRAS colors. These spectra are then analytically extended beyond 400 $`\mu \mathrm{m}`$ into the sub-mm regime, assuming a dust emissivity dependence of $`\nu ^\beta `$, with $`\beta =1.5`$ (Franceschini, Andreani, & Danese 1998; Roche & Chandler 1993). Results for $`\lambda 1000\mu \mathrm{m}`$ are quite insensitive to the precise choice of $`\beta `$, since most of the flux detected in this part of the spectrum is emitted from sources at $`z1`$, from their rest frame infra-red. At shorter wavelengths, the spectra average over the line and bump features seen around $`10\mu \mathrm{m}`$. This may be important for some of the details of the $`15\mu \mathrm{m}`$ ISO CAM source counts. As the luminosities of the galaxies evolve, the relative proportion of sources in each spectral class changes, and in this way we take account of spectral evolution.

Disk galaxies are observed to be undergoing relatively steady star formation over many Gyr. Their IR luminosity is due to dust heating from both young stars, which spend most of their lives in dusty star-forming regions, and older stars, which contribute to the general interstellar radiation field (ISRF). The present-day fraction of the total from young star heating is $`f_0^{young}0.65`$ (Mayya & Rengarajan 1997; Devereux et al 1994; Xu & Helou 1996; Walterbos & Greenawalt 1996). We consider the luminosity evolution due to these two heating sources separately.

The IR luminosity of disks due to young stars, $`L^{ir,young}`$, is expected to evolve with redshift in the following manner:

$$\frac{L^{ir,young}(z)}{L_0^{ir,young}}=\frac{\varphi (z)}{\varphi _0}\frac{(1e^{\tau ^{uv}(z)})}{(1e^{\tau _0^{uv}})}\frac{M^{gal}(z)}{M_0^{gal}},$$
(2)   
where $`\varphi (z)`$ is the local star formation rate (SFR) per unit disk mass of disk galaxies, $`\tau ^{uv}(z)`$ is the disk optical depth to young stellar energy release and $`M^{gal}(z)`$ is the mean baryonic mass of disk galaxies. These are all redshift dependent.

We derive $`\varphi `$ from the metallicity distributions, $`dN/dZ`$, of local G-type stars (Rocha-Pinto & Maciel 1996; Wyse & Gilmore 1995), (Figure 1), and the age-metallicity relationship, $`dZ/dt`$, of local F-type stars (Edvardsson et al 1993), (Figure 2a), using

$$\varphi (t)\frac{dN}{dZ}\frac{dZ}{dt}.$$
(3)   
$`\varphi (t)`$ is further constrained by having to produce a local present-day stellar disk surface density of $`40\mathrm{M}_{}\mathrm{pc}^2`$ (Sackett 1997), assuming the returned mass fraction is small. From a sample of nearby white dwarfs and consideration of their cooling curves, Oswald et al (1996) find the local disk of the Milky Way has an age of $`10\pm 1`$ Gyr. Using a similar method, Knox, Hawkins & Hambly (1999) derive an age of $`10_1^{+3}`$ Gyr. However, because we wish to describe the galaxy averaged evolution of disks, we take the mean age to be $`12`$ Gyr, since it is expected the inner disk will start forming at earlier times. For simplicity we use this formation time to complete the normalization of $`\varphi (t)`$, which we now take to approximate the evolution of the total Galactic SFR history. An age of 12 Gyr corresponds to a disk formation time, $`t_f1`$ Gyr, and redshift, $`z_f5.5`$. At these high redshifts, the model predictions of the source counts and backgrounds are quite insensitive to the precise choice of $`z_f`$. The major uncertainty in this procedure is in fitting the age-metallicity relation, because of the large scatter in the data. We fit the data for $`dN/dZ`$, which show less scatter, with a Gaussian. Only the fit at solar metallicities and below affects the derived SFR history. $`dZ/dt`$ is fit with a function which rises asymptotically from low metallicities at $`tt_f`$, and then levels off to solar metallicity at $`tt_0`$, with the additional constraint that the integrated SFR history (Figure 2b) matches the observed stellar disk surface density. The SFR rises rapidly at early times, peaks at a level roughly ten times that of today, and then decays exponentially. Assuming the Milky Way is typical of disk galaxies, we apply $`\varphi `$ to the entire population of disks. This method enables us to empirically probe the evolution of disk systems separately from the other components of the Universe.

With a redshift independent dust-to-metals mass ratio (Pei et al 1998, their Figure 1), $`\tau `$ is proportional to the metallicity, $`Z`$, and the local gas density in the disk, $`\rho ^{gas}`$. Thus,

$$\frac{\tau (z)}{\tau _0}=\frac{Z(z)}{Z_0}\frac{\rho ^{gas}(z)}{\rho _0^{gas}}=\frac{Z(z)}{Z_0}\left(\frac{\varphi (z)}{\varphi _0}\right)^{2/3},$$
(4)   
where we have used the Schmidt law, $`\varphi (\rho ^{gas})^n`$, with $`n=1.5`$, to relate gas density to the rate of star formation. This relation is observed to hold over a large range of gas densities relevant to both disks and starbursts (Kennicutt 1998). The gas density history is shown in Figure 2c. We know the metallicity history directly from the age-metallicity relationship (Figure 2a). The optical depth history is shown in Figure 2d.

$`M^{gal}(z)`$ is derived from the model of collision-induced galaxy formation of BSS98 and is shown in Figure 2e. The mean baryonic mass in a galaxy is controlled by the competition between merging and cooling. It results from consideration of the Press-Schechter mass function, together with an applied cooling constraint, which gives an upper limit to galaxy masses. There is little evolution in the mean mass out to $`z2`$. By $`z5`$ it has fallen by a factor of a few.

The fraction of the baryonic mass bound to a galaxy that is in the form of gas, $`f^{gas}`$, can be calculated, given $`\varphi `$ and $`f_0^{gas}`$. This gas is not necessarily in the disk of the galaxy, but may be in the process of falling in from the halo. It is available to form stars in the event of a merger or close encounter with another galaxy, as tidal forces will channel the gas (or some portion of it) into the central starbursting regions. Thus knowledge of the evolution of $`f^{gas}`$ is necessary for modeling of the starbursts in §2.2. From observations of local disk galaxies, we take $`f_0^{gas}0.1`$ (Young & Scoville 1991; Young et al 1995). The effect of varying this choice is investigated in §3. Its evolution is shown in Figure 2f.

We describe the IR luminosity due to dust heating by the older stellar population as follows:

$$\frac{L^{ir,old}(z)}{L_0^{ir,old}}=\frac{_{t_f}^{t_z}\varphi (t)𝑑t}{_{t_f}^{t_0}\varphi (t)𝑑t}\frac{(1e^{\tau ^{opt}(z)})}{(1e^{\tau _0^{opt}})}\frac{M^{disk}(z)}{M_0^{disk}}.$$
(5)   
For simplicity it has been assumed that the intensity of the ISRF of disks in the optical scales as the integrated SFR history. The combination of $`L^{ir,young}`$ and $`L^{ir,old}`$ is a simple representation of the true situation in which there is a continuously varying contribution to dust heating over the whole mass spectrum and environments of stars present in a galaxy.

From Wolfire et al (1999) we set $`\tau _0^{uv}0.7`$. We assume $`\tau _0^{opt}0.1`$, placing present-day disks in the optically thin limit, with respect to the general ISRF. The calculation of the IR and sub-mm number counts and background is relatively insensitive to the choices of $`\tau _0^{uv}`$ and $`\tau _0^{opt}`$, provided we are in the optically semi-thick and thin regimes respectively, since, in this model, it is the scaling of the luminosity function, with respect to today’s, which is important.

We implement luminosity evolution of the present-day characteristic luminosity, $`L_{}^{disk}`$, using equations (2) and (5), each contributing the appropriate fraction, $`f_0^{young}`$ and $`1f_0^{young}`$ respectively to the total. This is shown in Figure 3a.

We obtain number density evolution (Figure 3b) from the models of BSS98 for field (i.e. non-cluster) galaxies, and apply this scaling to the normalization constant, $`C^{disk}(z)`$, of the luminosity function. In their model disk galaxies form from clouds which experience few, if any, collisions between the formation time and the epoch under consideration. Strong collisions will tend to prevent the gas from settling into a disk, allow for tidal exchanges which average out angular momentum, and lead to the formation of ellipticals.

### 2.2 Starbursts

We model starburst galaxies as gas rich systems which are undergoing a merger or a strong tidal interaction. We assume the starburst number density scales with the rate of such interactions, while the mean luminosity scales as the average galactic mass, $`M^{gal}`$, and the gas fraction of baryonic matter, $`f^{gas}`$, available for star formation. We treat the star formation as being completely obscured by dust. Observations support this approximation (Sanders & Mirabel 1996), and it is imagined that even for metal free systems, the initial burst-induced star formation acts very quickly to pollute the ISM and so obscure the vast majority of the stellar energy release.

We model the local ($`z0.2`$) starburst population with the high luminosity end of the IRAS FIR luminosity function:

$$\mathrm{\Phi }^{sb}(L)=\{\begin{array}{cc}0\hfill & L<L_{cut}\hfill \\ C^{sb}(z)(L/L_{,0}^{sb}(z))^{1\alpha }\mathrm{exp}\left[\frac{1}{2\sigma ^2}\mathrm{log}_{10}^2\left(1+\frac{L}{L_{,0}^{sb}(z)}\right)\right]\hfill & L_{cut}<L<L_{max}\hfill \\ 0\hfill & L>L_{max}\text{,}\hfill \end{array}$$
(6)   
where $`C_0^{sb}=2.6\times 10^2h^3\mathrm{Mpc}^3`$, $`L_{}^{sb}=10^{8.77}h^2L_{}`$, $`\alpha =1.09`$ (Saunders et al 1990) and $`L_{cut}5.6\times 10^{10}h^2L_{}`$ (Sanders & Mirabel 1996). We take $`L_{max}=10^{15}h^2L_{}`$. The results are insensitive to this choice because of the steepness of the luminosity function, equivalent to $`L^{2.35}`$, (Kim & Saunders 1998). Note, $`L_{}^{sb}`$ is not a characteristic starburst luminosity. It is simply used to parameterize the luminosity function.

We use the same spectral luminosity classes as for the disk model. Starbursts, with higher FIR luminosities than disks, have a stronger component of warm dust emission.

$`L_{}^{sb}`$ is modeled to evolve as follows:

$$\frac{L_{}^{sb}(z)}{L_{,0}^{sb}}=\frac{M^{gal}(z)}{M_0^{gal}}\frac{f^{gas}(z)}{f_0^{gas}}.$$
(7)   
Since all the energy released by star formation is reradiated in the far-IR, $`L_{}^{sb}`$ is proportional to the average galactic mass and gas fraction of the merging systems.

To model the number density evolution, we assume $`C^{sb}`$ is proportional to the rate of collisions between gas rich systems, $`\mathrm{\Gamma }^{coll}`$. The collision rate of any given galaxy is

$$\mathrm{\Gamma }_1^{coll}=\frac{v}{\lambda _{mfp}}n^{gal}R^2vn_c^{gal}(1+z)^3M^{gal}\frac{v_0}{(1+z)^{1/2}},$$
(8)   
where $`v`$ is the mean peculiar velocity of galaxies, $`\lambda _{mfp}`$ is the mean free path before a collision or strong interaction occurs, $`R`$ is the mean galactic linear size, $`n^{gal}`$ is the true number density of (gas rich) galaxies and $`n_c^{gal}`$ is the corresponding comoving number density. We assume that galaxies are disk-like so that $`M^{gal}=kR^2`$ for some constant $`k`$, which we take to be redshift independent. The redshift dependence of $`v=v_0(1+z)^{1/2}`$ results from consideration of structure formation in the linear regime. The total collision rate is thus:

$$\frac{\mathrm{\Gamma }^{coll}}{\mathrm{\Gamma }_0^{coll}}=\frac{C^{sb}}{C_0^{sb}}=(1+z)^{5/2}\left(\frac{n_c^{gal}}{n_{c,0}^{gal}}\right)^2\frac{M^{gal}}{M_0^{gal}}.$$
(9)   
We obtain $`n_c^{gal}(z)`$ from BSS98, by summing their disk and irregular morphological types. These dominate the galaxy population at any particular epoch. The luminosity and number density evolutions of the starburst population are shown in Figure 4. The luminosity evolution depends on the value of $`f_0^{gas}`$ and the effect of its variation is shown.

## 3 Results

For our IR and sub-mm sources we predict number counts, redshift distributions, the intensity of the extra-galactic background and the global SFR history. The values of our model’s parameters are based directly on observations (Table 1) and so we do not attempt to fine tune them to obtain “perfect” fits to all the observations. Rather, we demonstrate that this simple model of galaxy evolution is consistent with all the available data, and examine the effects of varying our two most sensitive model parameters, $`L_{cut}`$ and $`f_0^{gas}`$.

The disk, starburst and total integrated number counts are shown in Figure 5. The model agrees well with observations made in the IRAS $`12\mu \mathrm{m}`$ (Rush et al 1993), ISO CAM $`15\mu \mathrm{m}`$ (Aussel et al 1998; Altieri et al 1998), IRAS $`60\mu \mathrm{m}`$ (Lonsdale et al 1990), ISO PHOT $`175\mu \mathrm{m}`$ (Puget et al 1998) and SCUBA $`850\mu \mathrm{m}`$ (Blain et al 1999; Smail et al 1998 and references therein) passbands. At 15 $`\mu \mathrm{m}`$ disks dominate the counts at high fluxes, while the starburst contribution becomes comparable between $`10^3`$ to $`10^4`$ Jy. At lower fluxes, the starburst counts flatten off, as we are probing the limit of the distribution. At 60 $`\mu \mathrm{m}`$ the disks again dominate at the high flux end, with starbursts becoming more important at around $`10^2`$ Jy. At 175 $`\mu \mathrm{m}`$ the starburst counts rise steeply to dominate the total between $`1`$ and $`10^2`$ Jy, which is the region probed by current ISO PHOT observations. At 850 $`\mu \mathrm{m}`$ starbursts completely dominate at all fluxes above $`10^3`$ Jy.

Figure 6 shows the total counts in expanded regions of the flux-number count diagrams relevant to the latest observations. The ISO 15 $`\mu \mathrm{m}`$, ISO 175 $`\mu \mathrm{m}`$ and SCUBA 850 $`\mu \mathrm{m}`$ plots also show the effect of varying $`f_0^{gas}`$ and $`L_{cut}`$ from the fiducial values. Varying $`f_0^{gas}`$ affects the starburst population while $`L_{cut}`$ dictates the relative contribution of disks to starbursts. The IRAS 60 $`\mu \mathrm{m}`$ data, sampling the low redshift population, are very insensitive to these parameters.

Figure 7 shows the predicted redshift distributions of the source populations observed by ISO CAM, IRAS, ISO PHOT and SCUBA. The discontinuities in the distributions are artifacts resulting from our simplistic method of dividing the luminosity function into disk and starburst sources and discrete spectral classes. The observed disks are at lower redshifts relative to the bulk of the observed starbursts. In the case of the SCUBA sources detected with $`S>0.63`$ mJy, about $`2/3`$ are predicted to be starbursting systems, and the rest normal disks. Most of these sources are predicted to be at redshifts greater than one, with many seen out to redshift five and beyond. This is due to the steep slope of the Rayleigh-Jeans portion of the modified blackbody spectra of the sources. As more redshift determinations are made of these source samples, it will be interesting to compare the inferred distributions, corrected for clustering effects and incompleteness, to the model.

The predictions of the extra-galactic background in the IR to sub-mm are shown in Figure 8. Recent independent estimates of the flux from the FIRAS residuals between 150 - 5000 $`\mu \mathrm{m}`$ (Puget et al 1996; Fixsen et al 1998) agree on the spectrum and amplitude of the background, although the sizes of the systematic errors are not well determined. Strong upper limit constraints are also being reported at shorter wavelengths from observations of TeV $`\gamma `$-rays (Stanev & Franceschini 1998; Biller et at 1998), while lower limits can be placed from the summed flux predicted by number count surveys. Our fiducial model is consistent with the existing data, although at longer wavelengths it predicts a flux about twice as high as the mean of the FIRAS amplitudes. This discrepancy is within the bounds of model and observational uncertainties, as illustrated in the lower panel of Figure 8.

Finally we derive the global SFR history (Figure 9) by assuming a conversion factor of $`2\times 10^{10}\mathrm{M}_{}\mathrm{yr}^1\mathrm{L}_{}^{\mathrm{FIR}}`$. This is in agreement with recent calibrations ($`13\times 10^{10}\mathrm{M}_{}\mathrm{yr}^1\mathrm{L}_{}^{\mathrm{FIR}}`$) from starburst synthesis models (Leitherer & Heckman 1995; Lehnert & Heckman 1996; Meurer et al 1997). This conversion factor is applied to the far-IR luminosity due to dust heating by young stars in disks, accounting for the evolving optical depth, as well as to the optically thick starburst population. The results for the disk contribution are thus relatively sensitive to our choice of $`\tau _0^{uv}0.7`$. However, with this fiducial value, the model predictions agree well with the low redshift observations, given the uncertainties in the SFR to far-IR luminosity conversion factor. At high redshifts the model is consistent with recent results which suggest a relatively flat SFR history out to $`z4`$ (Steidel et al 1998).

If we assume that our starbursts lead to the formation of spheroidal stellar systems, such as ellipticals and the bulges and halos of disk galaxies, then we can predict the mass densities of the disk and spheroidal components that exist in the present-day Universe. Neglecting mass returned to the inter-stellar and inter-galactic media, we find $`\mathrm{\Omega }_{disk}5.1\times 10^3`$ and $`\mathrm{\Omega }_{sph}4.4\times 10^3`$. These estimates are sensitive to $`L_{cut}`$ and are uncertain by factors of a few. Observationally, the spheroidal component is dominated by the bulges and halos of disk galaxies, due to the paucity of ellipticals in the field (Binggeli, Sandage & Tammann 1988). Our results suggest the mass in spheroids is comparable to the mass in the disks, consistent with the analysis of Schechter & Dressler (1987).

Our model indicates that there is a broad peak of spheroid formation at $`z3`$ (Figure 9). Recently, evolved ellipticals have been seen in deep NICMOS images (Benitez et al 1998), requiring a very high ($`z5`$) redshift of formation. Extrapolating the global SFR predictions of our model to these high redshifts, whilst uncertain, indicates that the SFR’s are high enough to account for some very early elliptical formation. Note, however, within the framework of our model, the contribution to the extra-galactic background and the number counts from these early times ($`t<1`$ Gyr) is negligible. In other words, almost all the star formation and associated energy release necessary to account for the observed extra-galactic background occurs at redshifts $`5`$ and is accessible to current observations.

## 4 Conclusions

We have presented a simple model for the evolution of disk galaxies and starbursts, tied as closely as possible to observations. Despite its simplicity, the model takes account of dust, gas and spectral evolution in a self-consistent manner, and is able to predict source counts and the extra-galactic background in the IR to sub-mm consistent with observations, without recourse to fine tuning of parameters. A disk-only model, with $`L_{cut}=L_{max}`$, gives only marginally greater counts and fluxes than the disk component of the fiducial model, thus failing to account for observations. This demonstrates the significant role of the starburst population. The fiducial model we present is based on the best estimates and observations of our various model parameters (Table 1). We have not attempted to vary these to obtain the best fit to the, often uncertain, high redshift IR and sub-mm data.

The predicted global SFR history agrees with recent observations, corrected for dust extinction, indicating that SFR’s remain high from $`z1`$ back to $`z4`$. At high redshifts the SFR is dominated by starbursts and is driven by galaxy-galaxy interactions. Over the history of the Universe, the total star formation occurring in starbursts is comparable to that in disks. This suggests the baryonic mass in bulges, formed from starbursts, is similar to that in disks. The bulges form at high redshift, and are then thought to act as the seeds for disk formation as gas infalls.

The energy release associated with the entire star formation history to $`z5`$ is enough to account for all of the observed extra-galactic background. This implies that the vast majority of star formation in the Universe occurs over this period.

The majority ($`2/3`$) of the sources recently detected with SCUBA are identified as starbursts. Typical redshifts are $`1z5`$. The direct effect of these sources, along with other foregrounds, on the angular power spectrum of the microwave background has been examined by Gawiser et al (1999). The effect of cluster-induced lensing of the sources on the background has been investigated by Scannapieco, Silk & Tan (1999) and found to be small.

Future possible improvements include a more sophisticated method of distinguishing disks and starbursts in the infra-red luminosity function, a more detailed treatment of the opacity of starbursts and the inclusion of active galactic nuclei. Extending the model to the ultra-violet, optical and radio, will allow additional observations to help constrain the galaxy evolution. Consideration of alternative cosmologies is left to a future date. The model will be considerably refined once results are available from future observations with FIRST, SIRTF and the NGST. Model results are available electronically at http://astro.berkeley.edu/ jt/irmodel.html.

We are grateful to Matt Malkan for kindly providing his data for the IR galaxy spectra in electronic form, and to Herve Aussel for his ISO CAM 15 $`\mu \mathrm{m}`$ number count data. We thank R. Bouwens, J. Puget, E. Scannapieco, A. Cumming and E. Gawiser for helpful discussions.