Market thoughts: We all know crypto bull runs depend on $BTC, which usually dips before ripping higher.

In Nov '17, it hit $8K before dropping 37.5% to $5K, then shot straight up to $20K (a 300% gain from the lows).

In Jan '21, it ran to $42K, dipped 33% to $28K, then climbed to $62K (a 120% gain from the lows).

So what does this mean? Maybe nothing — but here’s my take:

Right now, $BTC sits at $106K with no real dip, just major chop (if you were here it felt just as bad as a major dip). If history repeats, we might see a pullback to ~$66K-$70K.

But I doubt it happens. The game has changed. With institutional and government support, BTC may no longer follow this pattern.

The current pain in alts? I think that’s taking the place of $BTC’s usual "major dip." Judging by CT sentiment, that bottom might be near — or already in.
#BTC