Hon GRANT ROBERTSON: Treasury has been developing scenarios alongside the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) and the Reserve Bank to help understand the potential economic impacts that the COVID-19 outbreak may have on New Zealand. Obviously, the virus is having an impact on global supply chains and confidence that goes along with that. Therefore, Treasury's latest advice is it will have a negative but temporary impact on directly exposed sectors such as tourism, export education, and some primary industries such as forestry and seafood. This will be felt in the GDP data for the first and second quarters of 2020, and Treasury then expects economic activity to return to normal as global growth picks up and supply conditions normalise in the second half of the year. Independent bank forecasters are therefore pointing to 2 to 2.5 percent growth in 2020.