Many other countries are not starting from the same position of strength that we are. The UK started with net debt above 75 percent; the USA, 90 percent; and Ireland, 40 percent. Many countries are already well over 100 percent as they respond to the virus. The IMF expects a decline in global economic activity not seen in peacetime since the Great Depression of the 1930s, with annual global growth expected to fall to minus 3 percent in 2020. Although we are doing everything in our power to push back on these trends, there is no sugar coating the impact this crisis has had on the Government's books. Treasury's forecasts and alternative scenarios indicate that there will be a sharp fall in economic activity and a substantial rise in unemployment. New Zealand's real GDP growth rate is forecast to decline from 2.8 percent in the year ending June 2019 to minus 4.6 percent in the year ending June 2020, driven by a quarterly decline in GDP of over 20 percent in the June 2020 quarter. Annual average GDP growth is forecast to return to positive from the year ending September 2021 onwards. Unemployment is forecast to increase significantly, rising to 8.3 percent in the year ending June 2020, before peaking at 9.8 percent in September 2020 and then recovering thereafter. 