Against the commercial and strategic benefits of RCEP, it is also important to consider the implications of New Zealand not joining the agreement. In this case, New Zealand exporters may be excluded from regional supply chains, representing lost opportunities for New Zealand. Modelling indicates that New Zealand's GDP would be about 0.2 percent lower, or $900 million, if RCEP proceeded without New Zealand as a part of it. Conversely, once RCEP is fully in effect, New Zealand's annual GDP will be between 0.3 and 0.6 percent larger as a result of the agreement, and that amounts to between $1.5 billion to $3.2 billion in annual GDP. As we can see, the trade effects of RCEP will be material, and these economic benefits are not just concentrated on a few exporters, but half of New Zealand jobs come from the tradable sector. And, over that time, the economic benefit to New Zealand from these changes will be considerable.