I'm trying to solve a problem to train my skill. I've daily data (each day during 10 years,2010 to 2020, except saturday and sunday).  I would like to predict like ten day after my data end.   Problem is my model are atrocious. I tried xgboost, svm and Prophet for now.   I think the problem is : I always worked on monthly data, and with monthly it's far easier to detect seasonality and so on. With daily data I'm kind of lost.  I thought : "Why not transform into monthly instead of daily ?" But how to predict only few days with monthly ? I don't think it's possible.   So if you have some tips to improve my work with daily data, I'll be very grateful. I'm quite new so any hel would be appreciated.  Thanks. :)
Imagine a standard machine-learning scenario:     You are confronted with a large multivariate dataset and you have a   pretty blurry understanding of it. What you need to do is to make   predictions about some variable based on what you have. As usual, you   clean the data, look at descriptive statistics, run some models,   cross-validate them etc., but after several attempts, going back and   forth and trying multiple models nothing seems to work and your   results are miserable. You can spend hours, days, or weeks on such a   problem...   The question is: when to stop? How do you know that your data actually is hopeless and all the fancy models wouldn't do you any more good than predicting the average outcome for all cases or some other trivial solution?  Of course, this is a forecastability issue, but as far as I know, it is hard to assess forecastability for multivariate data before trying something on it. Or am I wrong?   Disclaimer: this question was inspired by this one  that did not attract much attention. It would be nice to have detailed answer to such question for reference.
Managing constructors with many parameters in Java In some of our projects, there's an class hierarchy that adds more parameters as it goes down the chain. At the bottom, some of the classes can have up to 30 parameters, 28 of which are just being passed into the super constructor.  I'll acknowledge that using automated DI through something like Guice would be nice, but because of some technical reasons, these specific projects are constrained to Java.   A convention of organizing the arguments alphabetically by type doesn't work because if a type is refactored (the Circle you were passing in for argument 2 is now a Shape) it can suddenly be out of order.  This question might be to specific and fraught with "If that's your problem, you're doing it wrong at a design level" criticisms, but I'm just looking for any viewpoints. I'm currently trying to extract textures from a binary file, and ideally I'd like to save each texture to a file or embed in the .blend file. However, before saving an image, I need to be able to create an image in memory from an array of pixel data.  The PIL library contains the kinds of functions I need to use, but it is not included with Blender. Is there anything similar to PIL in Blender? bpy.ops.image seems to be close to what I need, but lacks necessary pixel set/manipulation functions. Any way to send a personal message to another user? Estimating the most important features in a k-means cluster partition I recently purchased a MacBook Pro 13&quot; with the M1 chip and transferred all my data over using a Time Machine backup. Homebrew packages are currently installed in /usr/local/opt/ but it is my understanding that they should be under /opt/homebrew for Apple Silicon Macs. How can I:  Get the list of packages I currently have installed Remove those from /user/local/opt Reinstall them under /opt/homebrew  I kind of assumed Homebrew would be clever enough to do this automatically but apparently it needs some manual maintenance. Here's my Homebrew config if it helps: HOMEBREW_VERSION: 2.7.2 ORIGIN: https://github.com/Homebrew/brew HEAD: dad7dc6a1498b80770d98f2d7cd6fb927c300bbb Last commit: 3 days ago Core tap ORIGIN: https://github.com/Homebrew/homebrew-core Core tap HEAD: 2b1d79d038bffdbfcee93283051d48919a4caf3d Core tap last commit: 16 hours ago Core tap branch: master HOMEBREW_PREFIX: /usr/local HOMEBREW_REPOSITORY: /usr/local/Homebrew HOMEBREW_CELLAR: /usr/local/Cellar HOMEBREW_CASK_OPTS: [] HOMEBREW_MAKE_JOBS: 8 Homebrew Ruby: 2.6.3 =&gt; /System/Library/Frameworks/Ruby.framework/Versions/2.6/usr/bin/ruby CPU: octa-core 64-bit arm_firestorm_icestorm Clang: 12.0 build 1200 Git: 2.30.0 =&gt; /usr/local/bin/git Curl: 7.64.1 =&gt; /usr/bin/curl macOS: 11.1-arm64 CLT: 12.3.0.0.1.1607026830 Xcode: N/A Rosetta 2: false  Thanks in advance! Introduction to proofs with a fair amount of hand-holding? Denote by $\mathbb{N}$ the set of natural numbers and by $2^{\mathbb N}$ the set of all subsets of $\mathbb N$. Let $E$ be some subset of $2^{\mathbb N}$ such that for  every pair of elements in $E$, one is a subset of the other. Clearly, $E$ could be countable by considering $E=\big\{\{1,\cdots, n\}, n\in\mathbb N\big\}$. My question is the following: could we find an example that $E$ is uncountable? Many thanks for the answer! Determine all $f : \mathbb R \rightarrow \mathbb R$ such that $f(f(x) + y) = f(x^2 - y) + 4yf(x)$. Determine all $f : \mathbb R \rightarrow \mathbb R$ such that $$f\big(f(x) + y\big) = f(x^2 - y) + 4yf(x)$$ for all $x,y\in\mathbb{R}$.   $f(x) = 0$ is obvious , but how can we find all other functions?  Thanks in advance! How long does mana from Burning-Tree Emissary stay around? Does mana added to your pool from  get destroyed when the card that added it is destroyed? Analysing Bounce Rate and Time on Page Usage of "they" / "them" / "their" when the person's gender is not known I know that one can use "they" / "them" / "their" in place of "he" / "him" / "his" or "she" / "her" / "hers" when the subject's / direct object's gender is not known; for instance, just looking at the default user's about me section on Stack Exchange sites:     Apparently, this user prefers to keep an air of mystery about them   My question is what happens when someone wants to reference the subject using a pronoun instead.  Should the verb be conjugated accordingly to the pronoun? E.g.:     Apparently, they prefer to keep an air of mystery about them   Or should the conjugation be retained? E.g.:     Apparently, they prefers to keep an air of mystery about them   The former looks unclear because it wouldn't allow the reader / listener to understand if the writer / speaker is talking about a single person or about a group of people, however the latter sounds very weird, at least just to the non-native speaker which I am. Bayes' Theorem Intuition I've been trying to develop an intuition based understanding of Bayes' theorem in terms of the prior, posterior, likelihood and marginal probability. For that I use the following equation: $$P(B|A) = \frac{P(A|B)P(B)}{P(A)}$$ where $A$ represents a hypothesis or belief and $B$ represents data or evidence. I've understood the concept of the posterior - it's a unifying entity that combines the prior belief and the likelihood of an event. What I don't understand is what does the likelihood signify? And why is the marginal probability in the denominator? After reviewing a couple of resources I came across this quote:     The likelihood is the weight of event $B$ given by the occurrence of $A$ ... $P(B|A)$ is the posterior probability of event $B$ , given that event $A$ has occurred.   The above 2 statements seem identical to me, just written in different ways. Can anyone please explain the difference between the two? Why can't two series-connected diodes act as a BJT? Do people sometimes get blocked by a webservice for things someone else has done with their dynamic IP-Address It is common practice for operators of web services (e.g. web sites) to block IP addresses when there was malicious traffic originating from that address.  It is also common practice that internet users don't have a static IP address but get one assigned by their ISP via DHCP.  Now I would expect that it sometimes happens that a specific IP address gets banned from a service and later that address gets assigned to another user, leaving the new user (temporarily) banned from the service for no apparent reason. However, I never had this problem or heard of someone having that problem.  Does this sometimes happen? If not, what prevents this from happening? How does the integral $\int_{D_C} e^{ia z}P(z)/Q(z)\,\mathrm{d}z$ blow up. In my book I have a theorem that goes something like the following     Let $P(x)$ be $Q(x)$ polynomials such that $\deg(Q) \geq \deg(P) + 2$.   Then \begin{align*}  \int_{-\infty}^{\infty} \frac{P(x)}{Q(x)}  e^{iax} \,\mathrm{d}x  = 2 \pi i \frac{a}{|a|} \sum_{k=1}^{m} \mathrm{Res}\left[  \frac{P(x)}{Q(x)} , z_k \right] \end{align*} where $a$ is a real   constant and $z_1,\,\ldots\,,z_m$ are the singularities to $P(x)/Q(x)$ in   the upper halfplane if $a&gt;0$ and the lower halfplane if $a&lt;0$.   I am having a bit of problems understanding this. I know the reason why we have to switch contour is that $e^{iz}$ blows up. But I really can not see why or how it blows up.   Take the canonical example for why this theorem is useful  $$   J = \int_{-\infty}^\infty \frac{e^{iz}}{z^2+1} $$    Now the clue here is to show that the integral along the curve tends to zero, and then use the residue theorem. To show that the integral tends to zero I did this \begin{align*}  \left| \int_{C_1} \frac{e^{iz}}{1+z^2} \,\mathrm{d}z\right|  \leq \int_{C_1} \left| \frac{e^{iz}}{1+z^2} \right| \,\mathrm{d}z   \leq \sup_{z = R e^{i \theta}} \left( \frac{1}{\left|1+z^2\right|} \right)       \int_{C_1} |e^{iz}| \,\mathrm{d}z \end{align*} where the $ML$-inequality was used in the last inequality  On the circle with radius $R$ we have $|e^{iz}|=R$, and we can use the inequality $|a+b|\leq|a|-|b|$ to simplify further \begin{align*}  \left|\int_{D_R} \frac{e^{iz}}{1+z^2}\,\mathrm{d}z \right|  \leq \sup_{z = R e^{i \theta}} \left( \frac{1}{|z|^2-1}\right)  \int_{D_R} R \,\mathrm{d}z  \leq \pi \frac{R}{R^2-1} \end{align*} which tends to zero as $R \to \infty$ as wanted. but if one instead had $e^{-iz}$ then the theorem states that one has to use the lower half plane. But I do not see where my calculations err if one persists in using the contour in the upper half plane? What goes wrong, and why does it go wrong? $|e^{-iz}|$ should still be $R$ on the semi-circle.   How can one formally show that the integral diverges when picking the contour as a semi circle in the lower half plane? Why energy curves spacetime? This  explains how energy curves spacetime. But I would like to know why energy curves spacetime, is there something like particle interaction that produce this result? How to prove this limit exists: $a_{n+2}=\sqrt{a_{n+1}}+\sqrt{a_{n}}$ Question: Consider a sequence $\{a_{n}\}$ such that $a_{1},a_{2}&gt;0$, and for all $n \in \mathbb{N}$ we have:  $$a_{n+2}=\sqrt{a_{n+1}}+\sqrt{a_{n}}$$  Prove that :  $\displaystyle\lim_{n\to\infty}a_{n}$ exists and find this limit.  My work: If this limit exists, let $\displaystyle\lim_{n\to\infty}a_{n}=x&gt;0$; then we have $$x=\sqrt{x}+\sqrt{x}\Longrightarrow x=4$$ But I can't see how to prove the limit of $\{a_{n}\}$ exists. Thank you for you help! What's the difference between passing by reference vs. passing by value? What price is a limit buy and a limit sell order settled at? A market has an existing limit buy order at $1.00.  The market then receives a limit sell order at $0.95, what price is the transaction settled at? Get last result in interactive Python shell