 But here's the thing. Even if Joe Biden would argue that the debate hasn't changed the race, if it doesn't change the race, he loses. If Joe Biden were to lose the popular vote by six points, this is a historic whooping, the likes of which we probably have not seen in the Republican Party since Ronald Reagan in 1984. It's really a disastrous showing for the Democratic Party if he loses 49-43, because there are a lot of states that are within that six-point margin of error.