 has a higher expected ERA than Seth Lugo. Garrett Crochet, who's number one in war, has a higher actual ERA than Seth Lugo. Crochet's got a better chance to win it than Lugo. Right now he might. I don't think Crochet is going to last the full season necessarily, and that's why I made my bet on him. You honestly believe that Seth Lugo is going to pitch to a 2-1 ERA the rest of the season?