 If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for between Biden and Trump? This includes leaners, people who say, well, I don't really know, but here's what I'm leaning toward. This poll shows that if you include leaners, Donald Trump is up 48 to 42 on Joe Biden, a six-point lead, a disastrous result for Joe Biden. 10% say they don't know or they refuse. You figure those are going to split right down the middle. If anything, they might favor Trump. There might be a bunch of people who don't want to tell the New York Times they're going to vote for Trump.