 Biden also has to hold on to states like New Hampshire and Virginia and New Mexico and Minnesota and Nebraska's second congressional district in the blue wall saves the day scenario. That's not quite a sure thing, says Nate Silver, given Biden's mediocre polling elsewhere in the Northeast. In the Sunbelt swing states, Biden trails badly. So badly that he's out of the normal range of polling error scenarios, and he either needs a big polling error or something fundamental to change about the race.