title: Simulating a Predictive Model
body: <p>I have created and implemented a predictive model that provides us with the probability that an account will convert. We also have the expected value of each account.</p>
  
  <p>Our team members are graded on two parts:
   (Accounts Converted)/(Total Accounts Assigned to Member)
  And
   (Value of Accounts converted)/(Total Value of all assigned accounts)</p>
  
  <p>The average of the two is used to Grade each team member. So converting accounts is not always the best idea, you want to convert big accounts that are worth more $$.</p>
  
  <p>The Question: </p>
  
  <p>If a team member makes 200 calls a day, which accounts should he/she be working on to maximize their grade?</p>
  
  <p>Since I have the probability that each account will convert, I would like to run a simulation to design a strategy to optimize the team members efforts and optimize their Grade. I am not sure where to start or how to design the simulation.</p>
  
  <p>Would a Monte-Carlo Simulation work for this particular problem?</p>
  
  <p>I would usually provide my attempt, but I am not sure where to start here. </p>