I don’t have the data to support this opinion but I believe that diversifying your resources at the expense of one or two dots is worth it.
Unsurprisingly, placing your initial two settlements on tiles with many dots (high probabilities) increases your chance of winning. The average number of starting dots was 20. I don’t have the data to support this opinion but I believe that diversifying your resources at the expense of one or two dots is worth it. This is especially true for a resource like wheat which is needed to buy settlements, cities and development cards.