Performing data analysis on hundreds of matches, debating even the most insignificant of moves, and recapping games like what you see in poker or chess — there’s no end to what some people like me will do to gain an edge.
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# Advanced Strategy Guide to Win More Catan

## 17 TIPS AND TRICKS from the New York City Champion — so you earn more bragging rights.

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18 min read

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Jul 6, 2023

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Me taking this game WAY too seriously (Part 2).

- General Strategy
- Placements
- Trading
- Table Presence
- Miscellaneous Tactics

Yes, there really is a competitive scene for Settlers of Catan and we all take it way too seriously.

Performing data analysis on hundreds of matches, debating even the most insignificant of moves, and recapping games like what you see in poker or chess — there’s no end to what some people like me will do to gain an edge.

Given you’re here — I commend you! You and me are alike — we HATE losing in Settlers of Catan. Other games I can come in last place and not care the next minute — this one…not so much.

If you’re sick of being on the bad end of trades without even realizing it and find yourself winning until it’s stripped away from you at the very last moment — you’ve come to the right place.

Reading this guide will legitimately pay dividends for years to come. Whether you have family game night later today or are playing a decade from now, I have no doubt a few pointers you are about to learn will stick with you.

This post is designed to have each pointer as a stand-alone principle to keep in mind. Thus, feel free to jump around and revert back to this post for some last-minute refreshers before playing a game.

Who am I you ask? As someone who has been studying Catan for years and even won a couple tournaments — I have learned a lot of tricks of the trade, inventing some myself. For further background on my story, check out my first post here: “ my strange addiction: settlers of catan”.

Think of this guide as learnings from a thousand games culminating into one short list. Inevitably, sharing my unique approach will take away some of my edge; however, candidly, I want to grow on Medium more — so if you get any value from this, follow my Medium for additional Catan content.

I know writing a piece as lengthy as this one will drop off the reading completion rate than if I wrote something half the size, but ultimately I decided that there’s a lot to say and those whom I would really like to help improve their strategy will read through anyways. This took a lot of effort, but I really enjoyed writing. There are a lot of gold nuggets in here even if you may know agree with everything — I hope you enjoy!

Alright, let’s get into the juicy stuff already. Keep in mind, this is an “advanced” guide so not ideal for those who just learned the rules and excludes a lot of the most basic strategies. (If you still need that cheat sheet on what cards to build a city — this means you) On the flip side, some of these tips are not revolutionary for the experienced player, but worth keeping top of mind.

Several of these principles, especially regarding table presence(more on that later), probably don’t matter against your 3 friends who are each 7 White Claws deep trying to watch sports at the same time.

These rules of thought are most effective at a table of competent players who are dialed-in. Most often, you’ll find this at tournaments rather than at any given house game with little-to-no stakes.

Additionally, since some of these tactics are a bit cold-blooded (doing whatever it takes to win), don’t expect everything included herein to keep your competition happy — user discretion is advised. Even though Catan is just a game and you should be able to do what’s best to win, people do take moves personally. Sometimes keeping people happy at the expense of short-term wins builds goodwill that could pay off down the line.

Anyways, let’s get started…

# 1. Know your competition

- This is what I would deem to be the most important field of thought throughout any match: knowing who you’re playing against at any point in time. Specifically, understanding personalities, strategic prowess, and temperament. Each of these vectors are subject to change throughout a game and can drastically shape your path to victory. Everyone’s headspace is different whether they’re far in the lead…or not. It is your responsibility to recognize this shift so you can capitalize accordingly. Since Catan is so interpersonal, realizing how each person may work with or against everyone else matters a lot.
- There’s this inherent balancing act of how assertive vs. passive someone should be toward who and when. In the game of life, overbearing people usually lose, but in Catan..this is not always the case. Outspoken players may either influence others not to double-cross them or can inadvertently paint a large target on their backs — it depends.
- Since Catan is so interpersonal, how you go about proposing, negotiating, and rejecting trades is critical.

# 2. Bluffing

- This is the area of Catan that really separates the kids from the adults. It is openly framing to the table that you’re going to do something even when you have no plans to. (Not to be confused with going back on a deal)

Here are some examples:

- Persuading someone to build their road a certain way claiming you’re going to place a settlement there — meanwhile you intend to keep it open as an expansion spot.
- Extorting someone to trade with you so that you won’t knight them, even when you never planned on putting the robber on them at all. (note: this may have since been outlawed in the official tournament Catan rules)
- Declaring you have a specific development card (such as a knight) so that someone won’t do an action (like putting the robber on you).
- Negotiating a more attractive trade to help save the game. I’ll explain: imagine you need to steal the longest road to save the match. Even if you have the sufficient cards to make this happen, you can declare that you’re not going to build the roads unless you get an even more-than-necessary deal from the table. (Of course, if the others aren’t aware of this — no need to proclaim it, simply state that you need help) This declaration that you’re willing to let the game end, even when you’re not, can be quite effective. I would recommend going as far as pretending you are about to hand over the dice (even though you won’t finish the motion) to get someone else to fold first to your trade demands.
- Even when you really want a trade, it’s often helpful to sound indecisive of how much it may benefit you. Coming across eager will often make the other person recoil their willingness to follow through with it. It also may build some goodwill with the person if you say the trade is helping them more than you and to keep it in mind when you are offering a deal next time.
- Further to needing a specific card and acting indifferent, it may be best to offer the card(s) you want to give away in exchange for “anything”. This can help obscure the move you would like to make when you only accept the trade you want. If someone offers something useless to you, correct yourself that you don’t want that resource. If you’re unsure of what cards are in circulation as well, it will give you an idea of what people have (or more specifically, what cards people don’t want).
- The list goes on…

# 3. Cut people off, but don’t let it happen to you

- There are three main stages to any round of Catan: the early-, mid-, and end-game. Each one is defined by it’s unique priorities, with the early-game focused on expansion (i.e. building roads). Securing the settlement spots left unclaimed from initial placements should always be your first priority (building cities is best to focus on later). The rationale is that you will not only gain more production from different hexes, but also diversification of both resources and numbers ( see Tip #3).

Cut people off

- Even if you are two or three roads away from cutting someone off, don’t let this deter you. If you are fairly confident you may be able to build somewhere before someone else, focus on the contested spot(s) first. You may derail someone else’s game who positioned their settlements assuming they could get it — a great offensive move by you. Meanwhile, you are also gaining a spot that may be accretive to your production. Anywhere else that may be less desirable could still be up for grabs later too.
- When cutting someone off, it’s best to build all the required roads on one single turn. Otherwise, if you build one road to start (even if it helps get you to 7 or less cards), the other player will see what you’re doing and prioritize getting there before you. Thus, you will have wasted your resources building to nowhere (if there is no back-up route).

Starting with a road can be a big advantage on someone’s first move.

Don’t get cut off

- Especially during the early stage of the game, AVOID getting cut off at all costs. Pay close attention to anyone who threatens to steal the spot you’re aiming for. Keep track if they are accumulating sufficient lumber/brick, be cognizant of any trades that may help them on this objective, and assume any unturned development card could be a year of plenty, or even worse, a road builder. If there is a mutually beneficial trade possible, you can sweeten the deal for yourself by having their promise not to build toward you. (While verbal agreements like this may not be ‘binding’ per Catan rules, they are almost always upheld)
- Even while initial placements are being made, try to dissuade players from pointing their roads in your direction. Even if it’s a spot that is unlikely for you to get anytime soon, it helps to give you optionality later on. I will often proclaim that they are building toward a high priority spot of mine that would be better for the both of us if we did not have to compete for it.

# 4. Avoid being the clear leader

- Early-to-mid game: You will get knighted to oblivion and miss out on trades if you get too much of a lead early. This is why those who often start strong aren’t able to maintain it. If you have access to ample ore and grain, it may be more appropriate to buy development cards than cities. I have found that development cards are often more subtle. It doesn’t raise alarm bells while bringing you closer to earning the largest army or gaining another beneficial card.
- End game: If the largest army or longest road is still up for grabs and someone else is not about to take either — delay getting it for yourself. For example, if you have two knights face-up with at least one face down (assuming nobody else is in the same boat), it may be worth holding out on flipping it. (The exception is that by not flipping it, you may encourage someone else to buy development cards in order to catch-up to you or be forced to play a knight at an inopportune time) Being close to 10 VP’s places more of a target on you. When possible, get those 2 VP’s during your move to win the game.

# 5. Diversify your resources and number production

- Resource diversity: It’s typically better to have access to more (or all) of the five resources. Thereby, you are less reliant on trading a 4–1 with the bank, 2–1 with a port, or forced into making a deal with someone.
- Number diversity: You want to have your numbers as distributed as possible. For example, while the numbers 6 and 8 have equal probabilities of being rolled, it is better to have access to a 6 AND 8, rather than two 6’s or two 8's.
- Here’s why: your production is less concentrated on isolated numbers. Therefore, if a needed roll of the dice doesn’t come, the effect on you will be less drastic and variable. With staggered production (aka accessing repeat numbers), you are more likely to hold more than 7 cards or few in your hand at any point.

I know who I’d put my money on.

# 6. How to play your development cards

- Road builder: To maximize it’s impact, use this to cut someone off toward a desirable spot or make an unexpected steal of longest road to win the game. Alternatively, if your production of lumber/brick is minimal so you’re having a tough time building roads, it is equally fine to use road builder for acquiring an uncontested settlement spot.
- Year of plenty: Unless you need to steal the longest road or urgently need to acquire a development card to hold the largest army, use this card for the resources you are producing least. For example, if you have access to ore on your hexes, but need one or two so you can build a city now — don’t. Wait until those numbers are rolled organically instead.
- Monopoly: This card increases in power as the game progresses. When production is much higher since there are more cities in play, you will get more bang for your buck.
- Knight: Even without using it, you can threaten others that if the robber is placed on you, you will use the knight against them as revenge (whether or not this is a bluff — is up to you). Additionally, in times when your hand is “stuck” (you need another card to make a move on your turn) and the robber is not on you, it may be fine to use the knight simply for taking a card from someone.

# 7. Robbers can decide games

- New players often underestimate the power of the robber. It can drastically slow down someone’s game, even if it may just block one number or steal one card at a time. If it’s placed on you — okay, fine — but really avoid being stolen from as well. The robber deserves respect and caution.

Here are some pointers:

- If there’s an obvious placement that does not involve you and the person may not realize, it may be best to bring it to their attention. Otherwise, it’s better to keep a low profile to let them arrive at the decision and not direct attention to you.
- Direct your attention away from the game itself. This means avoiding eye contact with the player robbing someone and potentially chatting up someone uninvolved. And yes, it really can work. Someone who is indifferent will take a card from the person who is more engaged in what’s happening — it’s more convenient and potentially won’t have to interrupt your conversation.
- If the person does choose to take from you nonetheless, you can tell them that you don’t have the resource they need (even naming said resource if you know what they want). You can even ask them and then share their odds of actually getting it — sharing their better odds with the other person, if you’re really paying attention.
- Keep your cards close to your body when someone is deciding who to pick from. Remember that note about making it convenient for them? If they want to pick from you, make them reach — sometimes people will actually change their minds during this moment.
- Most notably, always try to make a trade if it makes sense to either have someone not knight you or at least take a card from you. It’s often better to trade a card (unless it’s a resource you really need) for something you don’t want than to lose one.
- When in control of the robber, you must also keep in mind the opposite perspective of everything above. When you may be placing the robber, use these opportunities to extort specific cards out of other players in exchange for you not knighting/taking from them.

# 8. Always speak up

- Remember: every trade you are not involved in is helping the games of others, not yours.
- If there is a trade that may be at least slightly one-sided, bring this light so the deal does not occur. You want to highlight how much the exchange will help the aggressor and only be a marginal benefit for the other. You can even offer a different deal including yourself. While every situation is different, Catan does not typically favor those who remain silent.

# 9. Think about win-scenarios

- One of the most common scenarios people lose is that they have tunnel vision on their own win-scenarios (the path someone needs to win) while losing sight of everyone else.
- In most games, the winner will have the longest road or largest army — therefore, if you’re too far from acquiring one of them, you need to try to secure the other. As you think about which each person is poised to go after based on their resource production (lumber/brick = road, ore/grain/wool = largest army), don’t ever lose focus on what it would take for them to secure it. And if they do, their proximity to winning.
- It’s difficult for someone to sneak a win with largest army, but the longest road is a different story. The fastest Catan matches usually end with the longest road ripe for the taking at 5-roads or the one holding it having not insulated theirs to be long enough.

You can often tell early on what win-scenario each player may be fighting for.

# 10. The person with the most points isn’t always winning

- Pay attention to who is most likely to win the game long term (i.e: strength of resource production, open spots for future settlements, ability to build roads or buy development cards). In matches with beginners, players will often incorrectly target someone who may get an early longest road or otherwise get to 5 points quickly. However, slowing the person with the best long-term set up and highest skill level early is often best. In these instances, their games may accelerate beyond what can be stopped.

# 11. Yes, 11’s and 3’s roll

- Even at the highest level of Catan, I have found that some people do not pay much attention to these numbers. They each have a 5.6% probability of rolling — meaningful odds that should not be counted out. They may not be ideal for your initial settlement placements, but could make for great expansion numbers. Not to mention, they will likely never have the robber on them.

One notable point: 3 hex + 4 hex = same production as a 6 hex.

# 12. Table presence

- Your mannerisms at the table matter a lot and are contingent on the field of thought that started this post: knowing your competition. There are times it may be better to keep a low profile while at other moments it may best to be outspoken so nobody wants to point the target on you.
- There are tons of nuances for how you should behave in a game based on the unique circumstances at hand. For example, whether or not you should have urgency for someone to accept a trade should vary based on who you may be playing against — people react very differently.
- Furthermore, how you choose your words matters a lot during negotiations. If you are desperate for a resource, do not make this clear to the other player — use the word “ want” instead of “ need”. If you show weakness, the person will capitalize and get a better deal from you.
- When playing against strangers (with stakes while in a tournament), it often pays to get on their good side. This includes *acting* remorseful when robbing from them and *faking* empathy when their numbers don’t roll. Half joking, but also half serious. If you want to be next-level try hard, you can even make some off topic conversation while playing, getting their heads off the game and for them to like you.
- My favorite example of this strategy was when I was able to portray whatever table presence I wanted during the preliminary round of the NYC tournament I won in December 2022. Sitting with three strangers, it seemed most advantageous for me to act timid and come across like I barely knew the rules. I kept asking for advice on moves that I should make which helped to keep the target off me the entire game — even when I was winning. One guy (who ended up making the semi-finals) even openly said that he felt bad knighting me because I was so nice. Ultimately, I ended up winning and shared that I had played in a few tournaments before.

# 13. Card tracking

- At the highest level of play, tracking is what separates the great players from the best. This is the act of keeping a tally of who has what resources. This is a tremendous advantage because you are awake of what trades someone is willing to make so that you can maximize every exchange. It also keeps you informed on what move someone is focused on making next.
- While at first this may seem unrealistic, it becomes easier over time the more you practice. As the game progresses and more trades are made, knowing exactly what cards everyone has is impossible. However, a general idea of what someone has can be sufficient. This is done by remembering the previous rolls that have occurred and what someone has spent their resources on. If they must discard cards from having more than 7, pay attention to what they get rid of.
- When first learning to track cards, start with a reasonable goal of keeping track of the last 5 rolls at any given point. Therefore, even if you don’t remember what each person has in their hand, you can back solve what cards each person has based on where they are positioned on the board.

# 14. Involve yourself in others’ initial placements

- While many people will view the start of the game as independent (where there shouldn’t be any dialogue) — this could not be farther from the case. Sometimes there are obvious settlement spots/road directions to start a game; however, most of the time there is a level of subjectivity that you can take advantage of.
- If there are two spots of equal interest to someone, it’s worth guiding them toward the one that interferes with you less. Additionally, you want to mitigate situations when a player points their road toward a spot you both may then have to compete for. There could be another spot or road placement genuinely better for them that may not entail taking the same level of risk.

# 15. Keep a low profile

- When nearing the lead, the less unnecessary attention you can draw to yourself, the better. While these points may seem dramatic, I assure you they can make a difference against people who really care to win.
- If the bank’s resources are in stacks across the table from you, ask to split the piles in half on each side or have everything moved closer to you. Constantly reaching across the board for cards will accentuate how much you’re picking up.
- If you’re picking up 3 cards of the same resource, pick all 3 up at once instead of 1 at a time to not accentuate all the cards you’re getting.
- When the robber is placed on you and someone is deciding who to pick a card from: always keep your cards in one stack instead of fanned out so that you’re not flaunting how many cards you have. If you have more than a few, this may be the reason someone may pick from you.

# 16. Picking up development cards

- Just like in poker, do not give a ‘read’ on what development card you’ve picked up. Instead, when you buy them, do not look and keep them in front of you facedown. Only look at them at some later point in the cycle. Your expression, even more than you realize, can signal what you’ve picked up and play a big role in hurting your game.
- Naturally, the exception to this is when you’re pulling for a VP to win it all.
- On the flip side, closely watch the expressions of opponents when they look at their new development cards.

If they…

- glance at the card quickly without any reaction, then place it down — maybe a knight.
- have a look of distaste being early in the game — maybe a Victory Point.
- look around to see what cards everyone has — maybe a monopoly.
- pay closer attention to the board — maybe a road builder on where they may go.
- look back at their hand to see what they need — maybe a year of plenty.

# 17. Directing trades

- Cerberus paribus, it’s better to be on the side offering trades than accepting them. Unless you know exactly what’s in someone’s hand and what they will do or whom they may try to trade with, a move may happen that you’re prepared for.
- In Catan, you will regret accepting someone’s trade much more often than you will be happy you did it. A willingness to walk away from deals is the highest form of leverage.

# Conclusion

Kudos to you for making it to the end. If you’re not an avid player and think a lot of this guide is excessive and was written by a crazy person overly obsessed with a board game..you’re probably right.

There’s something about strategy and game theory that I really enjoy — thinking through complex problems to find the highest expected value has always been something that has intrigued me. In my opinion, Catan is the embodiment of this packed in a pretty easy-to-learn, fun form factor.

I go deep into detail on how to approach the start of your game which plays a huge role in your likelihood to win. I am certain you will get a lot out of it — in lesser time than this guide.

If you’re not on Medium, you should be — this is genuinely my favorite platform on the internet. For only $5/month you gain access to everything on the website and support me if you use the link below. More Catan content to follow so don’t miss it!

# And if you read this far and still use that cheat sheet, this may actually be most impressive.

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Thanks to Bo Peng for reading a draft of this.

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