The key is to assess when the bull market peak really was in the previous cycle.
First, when it comes to the cyclical patterns, breaking the ATH before the halving doesn’t necessarily mean we have deviated from historical norms for Bitcoin. The key is to assess when the bull market peak really was in the previous cycle. At Glassnode, we have long maintained that this happened in April 2021 even though technically Bitcoin went higher in terms of price in November 2021. Our assumption is based on the fact that after the April high, a large majority of technical and on-chain indicators related to market sentiment and investor behaviour started displaying their typical bear market values and never properly recovered.