The Conservative Party under Theresa May has sunk to fifth place in EU Parliament election polls, behind Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, Labour, the Liberal Democrats, and even the Green Party. The Tory collapse has been stunning, with a party that has billed itself as “the natural party of government”, and claims to be the longest-lived active political party in the world now polling at just 10 per cent, according to a new YouGov survey. The weeks-old Brexit Party led by Nigel Farage, meanwhile, is dominating the race on 34 per cent — more than the Tories with their 10 per cent, the opposition Labour party with 16 per cent, and the anti-Brexit Change UK (CUK) party combined. Conservatives pushed into fifth place in our latest European Parliament voting intention survey (fieldwork 8-9 May) Brexit Party – 34% Lab – 16% Lib Dem – 15% Green – 11% Con – 10% Change UK – 5% UKIP – 3%https://t.co/W4o6NfLQkL pic.twitter.com/aQ1swhpFRE — YouGov (@YouGov) May 13, 2019 The failure of the CUK party to break through bodes extremely poorly for the electoral prospects of the “Remain Resistance” led by the likes of Tony Blair, given it was supposed to serve as a Remainer answer to the Brexit Party. The party had some significant advantages over Farage’s party, which has put candidates outside the world of politics, including entrepreneurs, members of the fishing community, and decorated war veterans, front and centre, while CUK enjoyed a parliamentary base of former Labour and Tory MPs with relatively high profiles and good media contacts from the get-go. The better known Liberal Democrats, who are also campaigning on an anti-Brexit platform — with the somewhat contentious assistance of EU politicians like Guy Verhofstadt — are faring somewhat better, but have not garnered even half the public support mustered by Mr Farage, sitting at 15 per cent. Democratic Revolution: Farage's Brexit Party Pulls Ahead of Tories in General Election Poll https://t.co/p9E0MgNCVk — Breitbart London (@BreitbartLondon) May 11, 2019 Perhaps even more troubling, polling for general election voting intentions shows the many people appear to plan on backing Mr Farage at in national as well as European elections — with the Brexit Party currently outpointing the Conservatives in a ComRes poll. If translated into action at the ballot box, the poll results would see the Brexit Party claim some 49 seats in the House of Commons — and Remainer party chairman Brandon Lewis ousted from his seat, along with other Tory heavyweights including serving members of the Cabinet and even leadership hopeful Boris Johnson, a leading but so far ineffectual Brexiteer. The BBC are in denial. Looks like our entire establishment are in for a bigger surprise on May 23rd than they could ever imagine. pic.twitter.com/6W0NgqRGIC — Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) May 12, 2019 Follow Jack Montgomery on Twitter: @JackBMontgomery<doc-sep>The ground may be shifting under the British political landscape as Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, already polling in first place for the upcoming European Parliament elections, has now pulled ahead of the governing Conservative Party in polls for general elections to the House of Commons. The latest major poll of Westminster voting intentions, conducted on the 9th of May by ComRes, shows the Brexit Party up five points at 20 per cent, while the Tories under embattled prime minister Theresa May have sunk four points to 19 per cent. The opposition Labour Party, under hard-left leader Jeremy Corbyn, is in the lead on 27 per cent, but down six points compared to its previous rating. Remain’s answer to the Brexit Party, Change UK (CUK), also appears unable to progress beyond a small niche, and is down two points to 7 per cent. Westminster voting intention: LAB: 27% (-6) BREX: 20% (+6) CON: 19% (-4) LDEM: 14% (+7) CHUK: 7% (-2) GRN: 5% (+2) UKIP: 3% (-2) via @ComRes, 09 May Chgs. w/ 16 Apr — Britain Elects (@britainelects) May 11, 2019 While the composition of the British Parliament is somewhat more diverse than the U.S. Congress, with a relatively small number of MPs from third parties and parties particular to Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland joining the dominant Conservative (Tory) and Labour parties in the House of Commons, it is by and large a two-party system, with the country’s premiership having swung between the two since 1922. For an outside force like the Brexit Party to displace one of the two parties — and in particular the Tories, which boasts of being the oldest political party in existence — would be essentially unprecedented. It is true that the old Liberal Party, which persists in much-diminished form as the Liberal Democrats today, was formerly displaced by Labour, but that change accompanied a vast expansion of the franchise to include all working-class men, as well as some women over 30, at the end of the First World War. That the Brexit Party is outstripping the long-established Conservative Party in popularity is all the more remarkable given the speed at which it has happened, with the party being just weeks old. Farage: Vote for #Brexit Party Lets People 'Put No Deal Back on the Table' https://t.co/GXN2dzacCx — Breitbart London (@BreitbartLondon) May 11, 2019 Follow Jack Montgomery on Twitter: @JackBMontgomery<doc-sep>If anything the Brexit Party have extended the lead that they've held consistently over the last two weeks, although there is quite a lot of variation between the different polling companies. Unless the polls are seriously wrong they can expect to win the most seats when votes are counted on Sunday 26 May.<doc-sep>The Brexit Party, which only officially launched last weekend has already surged past the two main legacy parties in a new poll and is now rated as the lead party in voting intentions for the May European Union elections. The new poll by major UK pollsters YouGov shows Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party surging by 12 points in a week, from 15 per cent to 27 per cent as of yesterday, the most recent figures available. Coming in third place last week behind Labour and the Conservatives and just one point ahead of UKIP was no mean feat for a political party that had yet to launch, but the publicity generated by the party launch event in Coventry on Friday and the first rally — packing out the massive Hall One at the Birmingham International Conference Centre on Saturday — seems to have had a major impact. Both the Conservative and Labour parties fell marginally by one and two points respectively over the polling period, but Nigel Farage’s old party was hit hardest, diving from 14 to 7 per cent in just days. The Brexit Party has now leapfrogged the Tories and Labour to take first place in our latest EU Parliament poll: Brexit Party – 27% Labour – 22% Con – 15% Green – 10% Lib Dem – 9% UKIP – 7% Change UK – 6% SNP/Plaid – 4% Other – 1%https://t.co/pC1eQCniFm pic.twitter.com/cFPOD8kbAJ — YouGov (@YouGov) April 17, 2019 Polling monitoring group Europe Elects notes that if the findings were replicated in the European Elections in May, the outcome for the Conservative party would be their worst in history for a UK national election, going back to the foundation of the party in 1834. Polls on British politics and particularly on the subject of Brexit must be taken with a pinch of salt — pollsters failed to predict the outcome of the 2016 referendum on leaving the European Union, for instance — and the latest figures from YouGov represent a massive shift. Breitbart London reported this week on another recent poll from the weekend by Opinium which put the Brexit Party on 12 per cent. The results nevertheless bear out predictions that the establishment parties are set to perform poorly in the European Elections if they do indeed go ahead. The elections come after two delays to the legal Brexit date, and that the nation is being asked to select European Parliament candidates almost three years after the Brexit referendum is likely to be taken as a clear sign that the political class has failed to deliver. Tories Face Election Backlash if They Fail to Deliver Brexit https://t.co/NDy5I7Fo8D — Breitbart London (@BreitbartLondon) April 9, 2019 Breitbart London reported live from the Brexit party launch event, where Nigel Farage introduced Annunziata Rees-Mogg — sister of Tory Brexiteer Jacob — as a lead candidate for the forthcoming election. Brexit leader Farage told Breitbart’s James Delingpole that the Conservative party was facing deep problems over their failure to lead over Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union, and that the battle to change British politics had only just begun. Speaking last week before the party launch, Mr Farage said of his plans: “I said in 2013 that UKIP was going to cause an earthquake in British politics and I think we can safely say we did that. The ambition now is to cause a revolution in British politics – and to end the two-party structure as it is, it’s just not working. “We hope to have a profound effect on the Conservative Party and to shift the centre of gravity once more.”<doc-sep>
New polling for the upcoming European Parliament elections shows another astonishing surge in support for Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, while the governing Conservatives have crashed to fourth place on just 11 per cent. The Opinium poll of 2,004 people, conducted online between the 8th and 10th of May, showed support for Mr Farage’s weeks-old party up 6 points to 34 per cent, more than Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour — down seven points to 21 per cent — and Theresa May’s Conservatives — down three points to just 11 per cent — combined. The Conservative Party’s stunning collapse puts down in fourth place behind even the Liberal Democrats, who have been only a third force in British politics since the 1920s, and barely even that after arch-europhile Nick Clegg led them to near-obliteration in the 2015 general election. Change UK (CUK), comprised of EU loyalist defectors from Labour and the Conservatives, and intended as Remain diehards’ answer to the Brexit Party, is also struggling, down four points to a mere 3 per cent. Leader Nigel Farage welcomed the new poll results but — perhaps cognisant of the pollsters’ missteps ahead of the Brexit referendum and the U.S. presidential election — he was careful not to give an appearance of having counted his chickens before they have hatched, tweeting simply: “Accurate or not, these are great numbers and our movement for democracy is gathering pace.” Accurate or not, these are great numbers and our movement for democracy is gathering pace. pic.twitter.com/3acjwtEDeG — Nigel Farage (@Nigel_Farage) May 11, 2019 The European Parliament poll comes around the same time as another, perhaps even more seismic General Election poll, which appears to show that the public are not only willing to swing behind the Brexit Party to send a message to Brussels and Theresa May, but to break with the two-party establishment when electing national lawmakers to the House of Commons as well. The poll for ComRes, conducted on the 9th of May, shows the Brexit Party blowing past the Liberal Democrats and, even more remarkably, topping the governing Conservative Party, with a 20 per cent share of support to their 19 per cent. The first-place position of Corbyn’s Labour, on 27 per cent, may also be precarious, as it actually represents a 6-point drop in support compared to the previous ComRes survey. If translated into general election results, the ComRes data would see Mr Farage’s party claim 49 seats in the national legislature — and the ouster of a swathe of Tory heavyweights including Cabinet ministers, europhile party chairman Brandon Lewis, and even Boris Johnson. Democratic Revolution: Farage's Brexit Party Pulls Ahead of Tories in General Election Poll https://t.co/p9E0MgNCVk — Breitbart London (@BreitbartLondon) May 11, 2019 Follow Jack Montgomery on Twitter: @JackBMontgomery