The Portland Trail Blazers and Denver Nuggets will face each other in Game 7 of their 2019 playoffs series today. After ten contests this season, one, final time they’ll line up across from each other. This time, only one will advance. The number of Mailbag questions I’ve gotten about Game 7 and the series has been overwhelming. There’s no way I could do justice to them all, so in these few hours before tip-off, I’m just going to share my impressions of the game and the moment. Hopefully that will suffice to answer most of your concerns. The only real answer at this point is, “We’ll see today.” The teams will leave it out there on the court. How that turns out is anybody’s guess. Game 7’s are a different animal. By this time in a series, both teams are worn down to the core of their identities. Everybody has seen the tricks, the adjustments, and the counter-adjustments. Everybody is tired. Everybody knows what’s at stake. Game 7’s are like two gears grinding together when all the grease has worn off. There’s going to be plenty of noise, a fair amount of stress, then one of those gears is going to lose its teeth and break. Game 7’s are often more boring affairs than the contests that preceded them. They generally go towards the naturally-advantaged team. If all else fails, interpret that as “home team”. Scores aren’t often as close as people assume they’d be. We’re far more likely to see a Game 5-type affair today than a quadruple-overtime Game 3. If it’s not a blowout for Denver, the Blazers did well. Unfortunately, Denver holds the unstoppable advantage in Nikola Jokic. The Blazers have been compensating for him all series long, for better or worse. Sometimes, Portland’s adjustments have thrown the Nuggets. The Blazers have won games with physicality and three-guard lineups. Denver will be ready for each. Absent secrets and wrinkles, Jokic’s effect on Portland’s defense stands out like a mountain. There’s also reason to hope Portland can buck the “natural advantage” trend. If the game remains close, Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are better finishers than Jokic is in isolation. If anything, he’s been unable to dominate down the stretches of tight games this series. The more he takes on his shoulders, the more Portland’s defense hones in and the more Denver stalls. Also, the Blazers have played fewer games in the last month than Denver has...though mile-high altitude may compensate for that. Basically, if there’s a run-away, it’s likely to be Denver and it’s likely to be over. Portland can’t let the Nuggets get out to a 17-point lead without reeling them back in. If the score stays tight (as it did in Denver’s Round 1 seventh game against San Antonio), the Blazers have a good chance to take the game. They’ve got scorers, they’ve got smarts, and they’ve got a chance to get inside Denver’s head by keeping the pressure on. The Nuggets will want to break Portland early. The Blazers need to survive that, then put steady pressure on during the second half, shining a light on every crack in Denver’s facade. No matter how the teams are playing, the later the clock gets with you being able to say, “The Blazers are still in this,” the more momentum shifts towards Portland. Here are some basic keys to the contest: As has been true all series, the Blazers are going to want to keep Jokic on the perimeter, scoring after dribbles, preferably in isolation. They cannot keep him from getting the ball. They cannot keep him from putting up points. They want to make his offense take time and require plenty of motion. They’re OK if he passes as long as the Nuggets have to pass again before a decent shot appears. They want to keep him out of place for offensive rebounds. Portland’s in big trouble if Jokic can stand still, survey the floor, then make one quick pass for the score. They’re also in big trouble if he can score himself inside, with ease. The Blazers don’t need to stop Jokic; they need to make it hard for him to operate. This actually holds true for Portland’s entire defense. Don’t ask whether Denver’s shot went in, ask, “Was it easy?” That will tell you everything you need to know about Portland’s chances. For the most part, both teams have been willing to live with secondary players attempting three-point shots, even if those shots are open. Whichever team’s associate scorers find the range first will have a huge advantage. Denver’s guards and forwards have been prone to missing, but the numbers say they’re more reliable than Al-Farouq Aminu and Moe Harkless. This may affect how long Portland’s starting forwards can remain on the court. Continuing that thought... At this point Portland’s defense is more about covering space (between Jokic and shooters or shooters and the rebound) than about one-on-one skill. They may sacrifice individual defensive prowess in favor of anyone who can move their feet on “D” and hit an open shot. Portland’s rebounding disadvantage in this series has been well-chronicled. At this point, they can’t change scheme or personnel, nor the balance, probably. The Blazers can compensate by getting to 50-50 balls first. This includes some rebounds, but involves a wider variety of plays. When Denver gets to the ball first, Portland wilts. Neither offense nor defense create a reliable edge if the Blazers cede the plays in the middle. Speaking of, if they have the gas in the tank, running Denver a little wouldn’t hurt. Portland wants the Nuggets tired by the mid-third so their advantage at the guard position shows more than Denver’s advantage with the big men. Depending on their physical condition energy expenditure should be a plus for Portland. Altitude and injuries could wreak havoc with that, but if the tempo is high and it’s not a Denver run-away, that’s good for Portland. Denver just has to play well to win this game. If they do that, Portland’s scrambling defense will not be able to impede them. But the Nuggets haven’t always played well, nor have they put away opponents...including Portland in every game of this series but one. If the Nuggets leave a passing lane open, the Blazers should have the horsepower to overtake them. If it’s neck and neck at the finish line, the Blazers have not only a real chance to win it, but a good one. The Blazers haven’t treated their fans to something like this for 20 years. Win or lose, they’re playing games that matter. Hopefully they’ll rise to the occasion, playing in a way that matters just as much. If so, it should be a heck of a ride. Game 7 tips at 12:30, Pacific today on ABC. Enjoy it, folks. This is why winning matters. This is why they play. —Dave / @davedeckard / @blazersedge / blazersub@gmail.com<doc-sep>Get sassy, Denver. The Nuggets have an “L” for Portland to take out of the Pepsi Center in Game 7. But before Denver offers the Blazers a parting gift from the NBA playoffs, let us give sincere thanks to Portland guard Seth Curry for saying some of the nicest things about the Nuggets anyone has uttered in a long, long time. “They got some sassy dudes over there,” Curry said, condemning Will Barton, Nikola Jokic and the dudes wearing Nuggets’ colors after Game 6 got a little chippy. “Front-runners.” For years, nobody in the NBA ever got irked with the Nuggets, because they were a threat to absolutely no one. Denver has been so far down for so long it seems like forever since anyone accused the Nuggets of having too much sass, showing too little class and being full of … anything worth mentioning. But now the Nuggets are chippy, sassy front-runners that have pushed Portland out of its comfort zone in this series? That’s awesome. The Nuggets will take that as a compliment. “If that’s chippiness and you want to call us sassy, go ahead,” Denver coach Michael Malone said. For too many years, basketball in the Pepsi Center was a scene that featured way too many spectators wearing replica jerseys in tribute to LeBron or Steph, and way too few reasons to believe Denver could ever become a legitimate NBA contender. Given their uneven history, the Nuggets have been forced to earn their love. There’s nothing unconditional about this town’s affinity for this team. But the sometimes chilly relationship began to heat up this past season. Dare I say it? The Nuggets caught our eye by being sassy. Each one of those 54 victories built a little swagger. Maybe it started when guard Jamal Murray scored 48 points against the Celtics, but wanted 50 at the buzzer. And the love affair was rekindled on an evening in late November, after the Nuggets ran the Lakers out of the gym and silenced a crowd that came to cheer the visiting team. “The Warrior fans can come in here. The Celtic fans can come in here. The Laker fans can come in here,” Malone said, following the 117-85 thumping of the Lakers. “But take that L on the way out.” Ever since that sassy comment from Malone, the noise inside the arena has grown in a slow, but steady crescendo. And dare we say it? This noise sounds like hope. There’s hope Nikola Jokic might be the best player ever to wear a Nuggets uniform. Hope Paul Millsap won’t be the last free agent that sees Colorado as a desirable destination. Hope Denver could return to the Western Conference finals for the first time since 2009. For the first time in a long time, this town is feeling proud and sassy about its NBA franchise. And I hope the crowd assembled for Game 7 lets both the Blazers and a national television audience know all about it. Hey, anybody can shout: “M-V-P! M-V-P! M-V-P!” when Jokic steps to the free-throw line. Here’s hoping for a more spontaneous and rambunctious chant from Nuggets fans. After Jokic backs down Enes Kanter in the lane for a score, and the Portland center complains to the ref about Joker manhandling him? It might be kinda cool to hear nearly 20,000 fans chant: Sass-y, sass-y, sass-y! When the Blue Arrow hits the bulls-eye from 3-point range? Sass-y, sass-y, sass-y! When Portland coach Terry Stouts is forced to call a timeout to halt a Nuggets run? Sass-y, sass-y, sass-y! In league history, Game 7 has been contested 133 times. The home team has won 105 times. So history suggests the Nuggets have roughly an 80 percent chance of advancing to the Western Conference finals against Golden State, a team likely to be minus star Kevin Durant, at least during the early stages of the series. While basketball is a team game, the biggest NBA games are often won by the best single player on the floor. Portland’s Damian Lillard is certainly capable of scoring 48 points and hitting the winning basket at the buzzer, which would send the Nuggets to Cancun instead of Oakland. Can playing at home make the difference for Denver? “It means a lot, of course, if we can play Game 7 in our home,” Jokic said. “But I think the most important (thing) is who brings the energy on the floor and who brings the physicality.” And who brings the noise. It’s Game 7. It’s a party. It’s time to welcome Dame, Enes and the Blazers one more time to our dusty old cowtown, then let them take that “L” on the way out. Stay sassy, Denver.<doc-sep>A sensational series will come to an end Sunday, as the Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers do battle one last time – with a spot in the Western Conference Finals on the line. The past six games have seen outstanding basketball and tremendous entertainment, not the least of which came during that insane Game 3 and its four overtimes. It stings a little to realize one of these teams - so closely matched - will be done for the year after just 48 more minutes. Who emerges and takes their place against the two-time defending champion Golden State Warriors will need a few things to go right. USA TODAY Sports' Martin Rogers examines some of the key factors and figures that will decide Game 7 (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC): It's Dame time Damian Lillard is the most accomplished player in the series and has already shown moments of magic in this postseason. If he is able to get good looks with regularity and gets into his shooting groove, he is nearly unstoppable. Sometimes critics lament that he and colleague CJ McCollum are too similar – when things are going smoothly, they are the perfect foil for each other. Denver has occasionally done a great job in keeping him quiet and failed miserably to do so at others. Lillard has never played a Game 7 before, but we saw everything we needed to know about his love of the big moment with that series-winner against Oklahoma City. The Joke's on you Nikola Jokic is goofy and funny off the court, but his productivity has been no laughing matter for the Nuggets’ opponents. It is hard to argue with the growing theory that he may be the best passing big man the NBA has seen, and his ability to find open colleagues is a huge reason why Denver has a chance to make the conference finals. Jokic will look to establish his dominance on the game – that’s what he does every time Denver plays at home – and if he gets a quick foothold the Blazers may find themselves outsmarted and under-equipped to deal with him. Jokic and Jamal Murray have been the team’s hardest workers and top performers all season. Home court is a significant advantage, but the Nuggets will need this pair to fire to have a shot. Backup crews Based on how the regular season went, Denver would have figured to have the bench advantage coming into this series, but it hasn’t worked out that way. The Nuggets have struggled to get much out of their supplemental parts, and it has hurt them in key games. They will look for Malik Beasley to regain his shooting touch and make life tougher for the pesky Portland defense. Meanwhile, Enes Kanter continues to serve as a fine addition for Portland, having been told he was unwanted by the hapless New York Knicks earlier in the season. With all eyes on the big guys, it is not far from the realm of possibility than an unheralded role player could take their place in the spotlight.<doc-sep>
Craig Mitchelldyer/Associated Press PORTLAND, Ore. — The only predictable thing about this series is that it's going seven games. Anything else wouldn't have been right. Through six games, the Portland Trail Blazers and Denver Nuggets have proven their respective doubters wrong at every turn—making anyone who thought they had a handle on this series look silly. And after Portland's 119-108 Game 6 win on Thursday, the series is set to end the only way it should: with a Game 7. It appeared to be over last Friday when the Blazers outlasted the Nuggets in an epic, four-overtime, Game 3 slugfest. It would stand to reason that suffering such a demoralizing loss on the road would take the wind out of Denver's sails. But Denver rallied in Game 4, stealing a close one in Portland to take back home-court advantage and tie the series at 2-2. It appeared over once again on Tuesday, when Denver blew Portland out by 26 points at home, playing the Blazers off the floor and looking like they had them completely figured out. Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum couldn't buy a basket, and their defense had no answer for Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap. Portland punched back on Thursday, with a more aggressive Lillard and big games from reserves Rodney Hood and Zach Collins powering them to a win. Most people watching this series have by this point realized that predicting anything is a fool's errand. "We lost in the first series [against San Antonio] at home and we lost in the second series at home," Jokic said after the game. "We also beat them [on the road]. … If we can pick, we're going to play Game 7 at our home. But I think mostly it's who brings the energy on the floor." Video Play Button Videos you might like Throughout this playoff run, the Nuggets have proven that their lack of postseason experience doesn't mean much. This is the franchise's first playoff appearance since 2013 and, of their regular rotation players, only Millsap has significant experience in the postseason (from his years with the Atlanta Hawks). They outlasted the Spurs in seven games in the first round and have hung with a Blazers team that's been in the playoffs every year since their drought started. The series with the San Antonio Spurs gave Denver's youngsters experience with something this Blazers group has never seen: a Game 7. Lillard's Portland teams have been in the playoffs the last six years and won their first-round series in half of those. But they've never been in a decisive, winner-take-all game like the one they will face on Sunday, in a hostile environment. Not that these Blazers have backed down from a challenge thus far. "For me, I'm not going in there saying, 'I've never been in a Game 7,'" Lillard said Thursday night. "I'm going in there saying, 'I know what this team is capable of. I know what I am and who I am as a player and I'm going in there to get the job done.' I'm not concerned with it being a Game 7 or whatever. It's not Game 7 of the Finals." Lillard looked more like himself in Game 6 than he has all series, scoring 17 of his 32 points in a third quarter that helped Portland pull away for good. "Dame Time" struck a little late, but just in time to save Portland's season. He'll need a repeat performance in Game 7 to help the Blazers advance to the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2000. Denver's Conference Finals drought isn't quite as long—they made it in 2009—but advancing that far would put this young group far ahead of schedule, and boost Jokic's stature nationally. The 2019 playoffs have been Jokic's coming-out party to the casual fan. A spectacular regular season, which included his first career All-Star appearance, established him as a borderline MVP candidate. But that lack of postseason experience led to the same questions all young, rising stars face about whether their regular-season success can continue at the next level. Jokic has answered that question with a resounding yes—he's been the best player on the floor in the series with the Blazers and has had a bigger impact on the games than any other player on either team. He played a game-high 65 minutes in the quadruple-overtime loss, which more than doubled his typical per-game workload.