Chris Ash: If you're discussing who is most likely to be the first Power Five coach fired in 2019, it doesn't take long before Ash's name comes up. He just finished his third season at Rutgers, going 1-11, and he's now 7-29 overall and only 3-24 in the Big Ten. 2018 rank: 60 (-5) Mel Tucker has been a head coach for five games with the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2011. He was an interim coach and went 2-3 in those games. Tucker is a career assistant getting his first crack at a full-time head coaching gig, so there's no much to base his ranking on yet. 2018 rank: n/a Jonathan Smith debuted in our rankings at No. 63 last season, and after going 2-10 in his first season with the Beavers, he remains there heading into 2019. 2018 rank: 63 (E) Mike Locksley: Apparently a Nick Saban School for Coaching and Process Management degree only does so much for you. While Locksley has prior head coaching experience, it didn't go well, as he went 2-26 in roughly 2.5 seasons at New Mexico and was 1-5 as an interim coach at Maryland in 2015. 2018 rank: n/a Tom Allen may be the most anonymous coach in Power Five football. Allen's sbeen at Indiana for two seasons now, and while he's gone a respectable 10-14 overall, he's only 4-14 in the Big Ten. As a result, his ranking remains static. 2018 rank: 61 (E) Lovie Smith has done a lot to improve the talent level with the Illini, but at the end of the day, he's gone 9-27 overall and 4-23 in the Big Ten. Until the work put into revamping the roster results in more wins, he's not going to climb much higher in our rankings. 2018 rank: 59 (-1) Chad Morris received a rude welcoming to the SEC last year as the Razorbacks went 2-10 and 0-8 in the SEC, losing by an average of 22.6 points per game. That's going to knock you down a rung or two in these rankings. 2018 rank: 52 (-7) Matt Luke: After going 6-6 overall and 3-5 in the SEC during his first season in Oxford, the Rebels took a step backward last season, going 5-7 and 1-7 in the SEC. Yet Luke moves up four spots? That's from a combination of other coaches dropping, as well as a tip of the cap for the circumstances Luke's dealing with at Ole Miss. 2018 rank: 62 (+4) Manny Diaz: This is one of those times where I disagree with my fellow voters. Diaz has never been a head coach, so for me, I can't rank him higher than coaches who have won games. I had him at 64 on my ballot, so if he's at 57, at least one of my fellow voters thinks very highly of him. 2018 rank: n/a Chris Klieman may be new to the Power Five and FBS as a head coach, but his track record at North Dakota State was enough to earn him a decent starting position in our rankings. Klieman won four FCS national titles in five years after taking over the program from Craig Bohl in 2014. 2018 rank: n/a Geoff Collins was only in charge at Temple for two seasons, but he did an excellent job maintaining what Matt Rhule started. The Owls went 15-10 under Collins, and that included an 11-5 record in the AAC. He inherits a tough gig, however, as Georgia Tech transitions from an option team. 2018 rank: n/a Herm Edwards: I don't know if it was the actual results or the expectations of myself and my fellow voters, but after going 7-6 in his first season at Arizona State, Herm climbs from No. 64 to No. 54 in our rankings. 2018 rank: 64 (+10) Derek Mason: After going 5-7 (1-7 SEC) during the 2017 season, Mason climbed from No. 53 to No. 50 in our rankings. Now, after going 6-7 (3-5 SEC) and reaching a bowl game, Mason drops three spots back to No. 53. It just goes to show how volatile these rankings can be once you get out of the top 25 and there's so little separating the coaches. 2018 rank: 50 (-3) Jeremy Pruitt went 5-7 (2-6 SEC) in his first season at Tennessee, and that was enough to move him up five spots in our rankings, ahead of Mason, who's Vandy team had a better season and beat Pruitt's Vols (for what it's worth, I had Mason at 47 and Pruitt at 54). You're welcome, Tennessee sports radio stations. 2018 rank: 57 (+5) Clay Helton: Honestly, I think most of us were surprised we were even still ranking Helton this spring. We didn't expect him to make it after USC went 5-7 last year and missed out on a bowl game without the NCAA's help for the first time since 2000. Helton drops 20 spots in our rankings and enters 2019 on one of the hottest seats in the country. 2018 rank: 31 (-20) Justin Wilcox: My colleagues did not give Wilcox as much respect as I did, and that's fine. Different strokes for different folks. I had Wilcox at 39 on my ballot, but he comes in at No. 50 overall, which is still a bump up of three spots after going 7-6 and getting Cal to a bowl for the first time since 2015. 2018 rank: 53 (+3) Barry Odom: Missouri has improved every year under Odom. After starting 4-8 in 2016, the Tigers went 7-6 in 2017 and finished 8-5 last season. That's certainly a good sign, but it's hard to warrant ranking him any higher than this after considering his 10-14 mark in the SEC. If he wins more conference games, he'll likely climb higher. 2018 rank: 55 (+6) Joe Moorhead: While I can't speak for my fellow voters, Moorhead was one of the more difficult coaches for me to rank. It was a nice enough start for him at Mississippi State, but he inherited a strong roster from Dan Mullen and had a veteran quarterback; albeit one who isn't a perfect fit for his offense. I think this year will give us all a much better idea of what to make of him. 2018 rank: 58 (+10) Willie Taggart's introductory season at FSU didn't go smoothly. Some have already placed him on the hot seat after one season, and that's typically what happens when your program's streak of bowl appearances for 36 consecutive seasons comes to an end your first year. Now, a lot of the problems with last year's team were out of Taggart's control, but I'd still recommend he turn things around as quickly as possible. 2018 rank: 34 (-13) Pat Narduzzi: The Panthers were only 7-7 overall last year, but they did go 6-2 in the ACC and win the Coastal. That's got to be worth something, and to our voters, it was worth about five spots in the rankings. 2018 rank: 51 (+5) Ryan Day: Well, it seems Day's 3-0 record as a head coach proved more to some of my fellow voters than others. Personally, I had Day at No. 62, solely due to the lack of a lengthy resume. He is undoubtedly stepping into a great spot, and -- spoiler alert! -- if other spots in our rankings are any indication, it could do wonders for his ranking in a hurry. 2018 rank: n/a P.J. Fleck's boat is mostly treading water in our rankings. The Gophers were a young team in 2018 but still managed to go 7-6 and get to a bowl game. That said, Fleck is only 5-13 in conference games through two seasons. 2018 rank: 41 (-3) Matt Wells enters our Power Five rankings for the first time, coming from Utah State to replace Kliff Kingsbury. Wells went 44-34 at Utah State and had two 10-win seasons with the Aggies, giving him a boost over some other first-year Power Five coaches here. 2018 rank: n/a Steve Addazio: Did you know that if you replace Joe DiMaggio's name with Steve Addazio in Simon & Garfunkel's Mrs. Robinson and it fits seamlessly?<doc-sep>Ranking college football coaches is a fun off-season pastime. Everyone knows who is at the top of the list, but after that is when the fun starts. CBS Sports ranked college Power 5 head coaches from No. 65 to No. 26. The top 25 will be released tomorrow. Bringing up the rear this year is Rutgers’ Chris Ash, who is entering his fourth season in Piscataway. Ash is coming off a 1-11 campaign and is more than 20 games under .500 for his career. If you’re discussing who is most likely to be the first Power Five coach fired in 2019, it doesn’t take long before Ash’s name comes up. He just finished his third season at Rutgers, going 1-11, and he’s now 7-29 overall and only 3-24 in the Big Ten. Ash is most definitely on the hot seat heading into this season. His AD gave him a vote of confidence at the end of last year, but also admitted that 2018 “was a disappointing football season.” If Rutgers is to take a major step forward, quarterback play will be the biggest factor. Art Sitkowski struggled immensely as a true freshman last fall, and Texas Tech grad transfer McLane Carter is expected to challenge for the starting job. The Scarlet Knights have not had a winning record or reached a bowl game since 2014, their first season in the Big Ten. You can see the rest of the 65-26 coach rankings from CBS Sports here.<doc-sep>Coaching matters in college football, but not every coach can be judged the same way. Allow me to explain. Take Nick Saban and Bill Clark of Alabama and UAB, respectively. Both coach in the state of Alabama. Both are exceptional at what they do -- except they do two very different things. One has six national championships while the other literally took a program from the dead and made a conference title winner out of it in two years. Both are deserving of all the accolades possible. That's what always bugged me about traditional coach rankings. Who's to say the guy coaching for a national championship is automatically better than the one taking two- and three-star recruits and winning nine or 10 games a year? They're accomplishing two entirely different things, usually with different sets of expectations. That's why I've decided to once again rank coaches in tiers. It made more sense to group coaches accomplishing similar things than it did to try to decide which one was 10th best or 11th best based on different contexts for data. That's what we're doing again this year. Before diving into the tiers, let's go over a few ground rules. I didn't rank every coach. That would sort of defeat the purpose. Besides, not everyone has a classification. I stayed away from including any first-time coaches to give them a fair shake. This also generally includes coaches entering their first year of a big move (like FCS to FBS, etc) or those coming out of retirement (i.e. Les Miles and Mack Brown). On that note, I also excluded coaches with fewer than three full years of head coaching experience. There is one exception: Oklahoma's Lincoln Riley. He has already accomplished a ton in his short tenure. Most of these tiers exist independently of one another. This stems, again, from the idea that different jobs have different benchmarks for success. Clemson's Dabo Swinney and UAB's Bill Clark aren't coaching for the same things, and they aren't building their programs the same way. I'm not going to try to stack them against one another. There are no transitive properties. Ranking Joe Coach as the second-best program-builder doesn't mean he's automatically the 27th-best coach by my order. Rankings are relative to coaches similar to them. This is all a snapshot of the moment. Many of the names from last year's list are in different spots. Some aren't there at all. There will be a new order next offseason. Let's get to the tiers (and the inevitable ensuing anger). Elites Bear Bryant Tier: Blue-blood champs and Hall of Famers Rank Coach School Career Record Championships 1 Nick Saban Alabama 237-63-1 6 national (5 at Alabama, 1 at LSU) 2 Dabo Swinney Clemson 116-30 2 national 3 Jimbo Fisher Texas A&M 92-27 1 national 4 Lincoln Riley Oklahoma 24-4 2 (Big 12) 5 Kirby Smart Georgia 32-10 1 (SEC) With the retirement of Ohio State coach Urban Meyer, I consolidated the Bear Bryant Tier and Steve Spurrier Tier from last year to form one elite blue-blood category. These are the top five coaches who have either won a national championship at a blue-blood institution or competed for College Football Playoff spots. Clearly, Saban is still the clear-cut No. 1. He's won more national titles than anyone by a long shot, routinely recruits better than anyone, puts more players in the NFL than anyone and has an impressive coaching tree. However, Swinney has closed the gap as much as any coach since Saban's reign with the Crimson Tide began. He's bested Saban twice in the CFP title game (including January's stunning 44-16 rout of the Tide), recruits and develops near Saban's level and has a tremendous staff. Riley has put together the most impressive two-year resume of any coach with back-to-back conference titles, playoff appearances, Heisman winners and No. 1 overall picks in the NFL Draft (Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray). There's no indication he'll be tapering off any time soon, either. What's more: with the addition of defensive coordinator Alex Grinch, Riley's best work may not even be complete. Proven winners The Barry Alvarez Tier: Success at the Power Five level Rank Coach School Career record Championships 1 Chris Petersen Washington 139-33 7 (2 Pac-12, 1 MWC, 4 WAC) 2 Gary Patterson TCU 167-63 6 (1 Big 12, 4 MWC, 1 C-USA) 3 Brian Kelly Notre Dame 253-91-2 2 NCAA Division II national 4 David Shaw Stanford 82-26 3 (Pac-12) 5 Mark Dantonio Michigan State 125-68 3 (Big Ten) 6 Chip Kelly UCLA 49-16 3 (Pac-10/Pac-12) 7 James Franklin Penn State 69-36 1 (Big Ten) 8 Mike Gundy Oklahoma State 121-59 1 (Big 12) 9 Kirk Ferentz Iowa 164-122 2 (Big Ten) 10 Pat Fitzgerald Northwestern 96-70 11 Dan Mullen Florida 79-49 12 Mike Leach Washington State 133-83 13 Jim Harbaugh Michigan 96-41 2 (FCS) 14 Tom Herman Texas 39-14 1 (AAC) 15 Paul Chryst Wisconsin 61-31 16 Ed Orgeron LSU 41-36 17 Justin Fuente Virginia Tech 51-38 1 (AAC) 18 Bronco Mendenhall Virginia 115-65 2 (MWC) 19 Kyle Whittingham Utah 120-61 1 (MWC) 20 Mark Stoops Kentucky 36-39 We'll dive into more Power Five coaches in the tiers below, but the coaches in this tier have a few common traits. They've been in a power conference for at least one or two years and have had enough success that they aren't on any kind of hot seat at the moment. It is, as you'll see, the biggest group of coaches. Brian Kelly has his critics, but when you look at the totality of his career, it's still one of the more impressive resumes among active coaches. His run at Grand Valley State included three Division II national championship appearances in a row with two wins. He's led Notre Dame to a BCS Championship Game and a College Football Playoff semifinal. They both ended in terrible losses, but he still gets credit for getting those teams there. Keep in mind, too, that Kelly is 22-4 since going 4-8 in 2016. When times were tough, he found a way out. Another coach who needed more respect from me is Northwestern's Pat Fitzgerald. He wasn't even ranked last year (d'oh!) but led the Wildcats to a Big Ten title game appearance in 2018. He's taken Northwestern to four straight bowl games and has two 10-win seasons during that time. What he's done there is remarkable. A couple of SEC coaches made this list for the first time, too: Ed Orgeron and Mark Stoops. In their own ways, both were coaching for their jobs over the last few years. While Orgeron hasn't figured out a way to topple Bama yet -- hey, that's a short list -- he is 19-7 over the past two seasons. Stoops, meanwhile, led Kentucky to its first 10-win season since 1977. Both will still need to prove themselves in the coming years, but their recent success has bought them some goodwill. The Howard Schnellenberger Tier: Program builders Rank Coach School Career Record 1 Jeff Monken Army 73-44 2 David Cutcliffe Duke 111-101 3 Dave Clawson Wake Forest 118-115 4 Bill Clark UAB 36-18 5 Lance Leipold Buffalo 132-33 6 Chris Creighton Eastern Michigan 158-86 7 Willie Fritz Tulane 170-90 8 Matt Rhule Baylor 36-40 9 Scott Frost Nebraska 23-15 10 Dino Babers Syracuse 55-35 This is my favorite group. Forget recruiting rankings and national titles -- although some coaches in this tier have won them at lower levels -- these are some of the most resourceful coaches in all of college football. They've mastered player development and built winning cultures, largely at places where that's been hard to do historically. Jeff Monken was at No. 10 in this tier a year ago and shot straight to the top after leading Army to its best season in the modern era. The list of things Monken hasn't done with that program is shorter than the list of things he has. Basement dwelling Power Five programs will have a hard time selling the triple option to boosters, but someone should hire Monken. Similarly, someone is going to get a heck of a coach in Bill Clark one of these days.<doc-sep>
Scott Frost: With Nebraska going 4-8 in Frost's first season, it's not a surprise to see his standing take a slight hit, but we're all still pretty high on him. Nobody thought he'd step in at Nebraska and the Huskers would suddenly be winning 10 or 11 games. 2018 rank: 21 (-4) Gus Malzahn: When I look at the way we all vote for Malzahn in these rankings in a given year, I start to wonder if we're all Auburn fans. Our opinions on Gus vary quite a bit, but they all fluctuate together. This year, he drops 10 spots to No. 25 after climbing five spots to No. 14 last season. 2018 rank: 14 (-10) Paul Chryst: Not a surprise to see Chryst take a slight hit after Wisconsin had a down year in 2018. Chryst went 34-7 in his first three seasons at Wisconsin, including 22-4 in the Big Ten, but he went only 8-5 last year. Another 8-5 type season would likely knock him out of our top 25 next year. 2018 rank: 19 (-4) Kirk Ferentz: It's so difficult to rank Ferentz as opinions of him vary. I had him at No. 15 on my ballot because I admire the long track record and the program he's built at Iowa. I'm sure others punish him because, even though he's been consistently good for a long time, he doesn't have a bunch of division and conference titles. Both opinions are defensible and logical. I still think he's underappreciated by most, though. 2018 rank: 23 (+1) David Cutcliffe: You can replace everything I just wrote about Ferentz and put Cutcliffe's name in his place. He's only 67-72 overall at Duke, but that includes a record of 46-32 the last six seasons, which is not easy to do at Duke. The Blue Devils have been to six bowls in the last seven seasons under Cut. They'd been to eight bowls in the previous 89. 2018 rank: 22 (+1) Mike Leach: This feels like the right spot for Leach. You can't argue with the results he's had in his career, as he's gone 133-83 at places like Texas Tech and Washington State, which aren't the easiest places to win at. At the same time, though, you get the sense that there's a ceiling to Leach's teams due to their style of play. It's a feeling that says they can be good, but they'll likely never be elite. 2018 rank: 24 (+4) Matt Campbell: Here's somebody who is rising quickly, and I understand why, even if I think this is a little too high too quickly. I had Campbell at No. 22 on my ballot, as I admire what he's done at Iowa State in such a short amount of time. I just wouldn't put him ahead of guys like Ferentz, Cutcliffe, and others who have accomplished more for longer periods of time. Still, if I were hiring a coach to run my program right now, I'd lean Campbell over them, and I don't blame my colleagues if that's what they were basing their rankings on. 2018 rank: 30 (+11) Kyle Whittingham: I always enjoy a Kyle Whittingham team. They may not always be great, but it's rarely due to being poorly coached. They're typically solid teams that don't make mistakes, and when there's a good blend of talent and experience, they can be special. It took Whittingham a few years to get his program adjusted to the Pac-12, but the Utes have gone 44-22 the last five seasons overall with two Pac-12 South titles in the last five years. 2018 rank: 25 (+7) Tom Herman: I get the feeling that Herman's going to be a lot like Malzahn in these rankings. If Texas has a good season, he's going to climb more spots than most. If Texas has a down year, he's going to drop more spots than most. I'd also like to predict that if Texas wins 10 games or more again in 2019, he'll be damn near cracking the top 10 of these rankings next spring. If he wins the Big 12 and beats Oklahoma, I guarantee it'll happen. 2018 rank: 28 (+11) Pat Fitzgerald: I think the best way to sum up what Fitzgerald has done at Northwestern is that the Wildcats have won 19 games over the last two seasons (36 in the previous four) -- with a Big Ten West title last season -- and it didn't feel like a major story.