what earthquake pattern have scientists observed in california
Earthquake prediction M8 gained considerable attention when the 2003 San Simeon and Hokkaido earthquakes occurred within a TIP.[117] In 1999, Keilis-Borok's group published a claim to have achieved statistically significant intermediate-term results using their M8 and MSc models, as far as world-wide large earthquakes are regarded.[118] However, Geller et al.[119] are skeptical of prediction claims over any period shorter than 30 years. A widely publicized TIP for an M 6.4 quake in Southern California in 2004 was not fulfilled, nor two other lesser known TIPs.[120] A deep study of the RTP method in 2008 found that out of some twenty alarms only two could be considered hits (and one of those had a 60% chance of happening anyway).[121] It concluded that "RTP is not significantly different from a naÃ¯ve method of guessing based on the historical rates [of] seismicity."[122]