odds of recovering an onside kick in the nfl
Onside kick An onside kick is considered successful if the kicking team regains the ball. Between 2001 and 2010, surprise onside kicks were successful 60% of the time, while expected onside kicks were successful less than 20% of the time.[4] Another study of just the 2005 and 2006 seasons also found similar disparities depending on whether the defense expects an onside kick.[5] Accordingly, some analysts have suggested that the surprise onside kick is underutilized.[6] In 2014, the Indianapolis Colts routinely used the onside kick, with three in the first 6 games of the season, often at the start of the game. Each of these was successful.