Daily Papers

Depression and post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) often co-occur with connected symptoms, complicating automated assessment, which is often binary and disorder specific. Clinically useful diagnosis needs severity aware cross disorder estimates and decision support explanations. Our unified tri modal affective severity framework synchronizes and fuses interview text with sentence level transformer embeddings, audio with log Mel statistics with deltas, and facial signals with action units, gaze, head and pose descriptors to output graded severities for diagnosing both depression (PHQ-8; 5 classes) and PTSD (3 classes). Standardized features are fused via a calibrated late fusion classifier, yielding per disorder probabilities and feature-level attributions. This severity aware tri-modal affective fusion approach is demoed on multi disorder concurrent depression and PTSD assessment. Stratified cross validation on DAIC derived corpora outperforms unimodal/ablation baselines. The fused model matches the strongest unimodal baseline on accuracy and weighted F1, while improving decision curve utility and robustness under noisy or missing modalities. For PTSD specifically, fusion reduces regression error and improves class concordance. Errors cluster between adjacent severities; extreme classes are identified reliably. Ablations show text contributes most to depression severity, audio and facial cues are critical for PTSD, whereas attributions align with linguistic and behavioral markers. Our approach offers reproducible evaluation and clinician in the loop support for affective clinical decision making.

Log data have facilitated various tasks of software development and maintenance, such as testing, debugging and diagnosing. Due to the unstructured nature of logs, log parsing is typically required to transform log messages into structured data for automated log analysis. Given the abundance of log parsers that employ various techniques, evaluating these tools to comprehend their characteristics and performance becomes imperative. Loghub serves as a commonly used dataset for benchmarking log parsers, but it suffers from limited scale and representativeness, posing significant challenges for studies to comprehensively evaluate existing log parsers or develop new methods. This limitation is particularly pronounced when assessing these log parsers for production use. To address these limitations, we provide a new collection of annotated log datasets, denoted Loghub-2.0, which can better reflect the characteristics of log data in real-world software systems. Loghub-2.0 comprises 14 datasets with an average of 3.6 million log lines in each dataset. Based on Loghub-2.0, we conduct a thorough re-evaluation of 15 state-of-the-art log parsers in a more rigorous and practical setting. Particularly, we introduce a new evaluation metric to mitigate the sensitivity of existing metrics to imbalanced data distributions. We are also the first to investigate the granular performance of log parsers on logs that represent rare system events, offering in-depth details for software diagnosis. Accurately parsing such logs is essential, yet it remains a challenge. We believe this work could shed light on the evaluation and design of log parsers in practical settings, thereby facilitating their deployment in production systems.

Log analysis is crucial for ensuring the orderly and stable operation of information systems, particularly in the field of Artificial Intelligence for IT Operations (AIOps). Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated significant potential in natural language processing tasks. In the AIOps domain, they excel in tasks such as anomaly detection, root cause analysis of faults, operations and maintenance script generation, and alert information summarization. However, the performance of current LLMs in log analysis tasks remains inadequately validated. To address this gap, we introduce LogEval, a comprehensive benchmark suite designed to evaluate the capabilities of LLMs in various log analysis tasks for the first time. This benchmark covers tasks such as log parsing, log anomaly detection, log fault diagnosis, and log summarization. LogEval evaluates each task using 4,000 publicly available log data entries and employs 15 different prompts for each task to ensure a thorough and fair assessment. By rigorously evaluating leading LLMs, we demonstrate the impact of various LLM technologies on log analysis performance, focusing on aspects such as self-consistency and few-shot contextual learning. We also discuss findings related to model quantification, Chinese-English question-answering evaluation, and prompt engineering. These findings provide insights into the strengths and weaknesses of LLMs in multilingual environments and the effectiveness of different prompt strategies. Various evaluation methods are employed for different tasks to accurately measure the performance of LLMs in log analysis, ensuring a comprehensive assessment. The insights gained from LogEvals evaluation reveal the strengths and limitations of LLMs in log analysis tasks, providing valuable guidance for researchers and practitioners.

Logs are imperative in the development and maintenance process of many software systems. They record detailed runtime information that allows developers and support engineers to monitor their systems and dissect anomalous behaviors and errors. The increasing scale and complexity of modern software systems, however, make the volume of logs explodes. In many cases, the traditional way of manual log inspection becomes impractical. Many recent studies, as well as industrial tools, resort to powerful text search and machine learning-based analytics solutions. Due to the unstructured nature of logs, a first crucial step is to parse log messages into structured data for subsequent analysis. In recent years, automated log parsing has been widely studied in both academia and industry, producing a series of log parsers by different techniques. To better understand the characteristics of these log parsers, in this paper, we present a comprehensive evaluation study on automated log parsing and further release the tools and benchmarks for easy reuse. More specifically, we evaluate 13 log parsers on a total of 16 log datasets spanning distributed systems, supercomputers, operating systems, mobile systems, server applications, and standalone software. We report the benchmarking results in terms of accuracy, robustness, and efficiency, which are of practical importance when deploying automated log parsing in production. We also share the success stories and lessons learned in an industrial application at Huawei. We believe that our work could serve as the basis and provide valuable guidance to future research and deployment of automated log parsing.

Logs generated by large-scale software systems provide crucial information for engineers to understand the system status and diagnose problems of the systems. Log parsing, which converts raw log messages into structured data, is the first step to enabling automated log analytics. Existing log parsers extract the common part as log templates using statistical features. However, these log parsers often fail to identify the correct templates and parameters because: 1) they often overlook the semantic meaning of log messages, and 2) they require domain-specific knowledge for different log datasets. To address the limitations of existing methods, in this paper, we propose LogPPT to capture the patterns of templates using prompt-based few-shot learning. LogPPT utilises a novel prompt tuning method to recognise keywords and parameters based on a few labelled log data. In addition, an adaptive random sampling algorithm is designed to select a small yet diverse training set. We have conducted extensive experiments on 16 public log datasets. The experimental results show that LogPPT is effective and efficient for log parsing.

Automated log analysis is crucial to ensure high availability and reliability of complex systems. The advent of LLMs in NLP has ushered in a new era of language model-driven automated log analysis, garnering significant interest. Within this field, two primary paradigms based on language models for log analysis have become prominent. Small Language Models (SLMs) follow the pre-train and fine-tune paradigm, focusing on the specific log analysis task through fine-tuning on supervised datasets. On the other hand, LLMs following the in-context learning paradigm, analyze logs by providing a few examples in prompt contexts without updating parameters. Despite their respective strengths, we notice that SLMs are more cost-effective but less powerful, whereas LLMs with large parameters are highly powerful but expensive and inefficient. To trade-off between the performance and inference costs of both models in automated log analysis, this paper introduces an adaptive log analysis framework known as AdaptiveLog, which effectively reduces the costs associated with LLM while ensuring superior results. This framework collaborates an LLM and a small language model, strategically allocating the LLM to tackle complex logs while delegating simpler logs to the SLM. Specifically, to efficiently query the LLM, we propose an adaptive selection strategy based on the uncertainty estimation of the SLM, where the LLM is invoked only when the SLM is uncertain. In addition, to enhance the reasoning ability of the LLM in log analysis tasks, we propose a novel prompt strategy by retrieving similar error-prone cases as the reference, enabling the model to leverage past error experiences and learn solutions from these cases. Extensive experiments demonstrate that AdaptiveLog achieves state-of-the-art results across different tasks, elevating the overall accuracy of log analysis while maintaining cost efficiency.

IT environments typically have logging mechanisms to monitor system health and detect issues. However, the huge volume of generated logs makes manual inspection impractical, highlighting the importance of automated log analysis in IT Software Support. In this paper, we propose a log analytics tool that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) for log data processing and issue diagnosis, enabling the generation of automated insights and summaries. We further present a novel approach for efficiently running LLMs on CPUs to process massive log volumes in minimal time without compromising output quality. We share the insights and lessons learned from deployment of the tool - in production since March 2024 - scaled across 70 software products, processing over 2000 tickets for issue diagnosis, achieving a time savings of 300+ man hours and an estimated $15,444 per month in manpower costs compared to the traditional log analysis practices.

Logs have been widely adopted in software system development and maintenance because of the rich runtime information they record. In recent years, the increase of software size and complexity leads to the rapid growth of the volume of logs. To handle these large volumes of logs efficiently and effectively, a line of research focuses on developing intelligent and automated log analysis techniques. However, only a few of these techniques have reached successful deployments in industry due to the lack of public log datasets and open benchmarking upon them. To fill this significant gap and facilitate more research on AI-driven log analytics, we have collected and released loghub, a large collection of system log datasets. In particular, loghub provides 19 real-world log datasets collected from a wide range of software systems, including distributed systems, supercomputers, operating systems, mobile systems, server applications, and standalone software. In this paper, we summarize the statistics of these datasets, introduce some practical usage scenarios of the loghub datasets, and present our benchmarking results on loghub to benefit the researchers and practitioners in this field. Up to the time of this paper writing, the loghub datasets have been downloaded for roughly 90,000 times in total by hundreds of organizations from both industry and academia. The loghub datasets are available at https://github.com/logpai/loghub.

Pretrained masked language models (MLMs) require finetuning for most NLP tasks. Instead, we evaluate MLMs out of the box via their pseudo-log-likelihood scores (PLLs), which are computed by masking tokens one by one. We show that PLLs outperform scores from autoregressive language models like GPT-2 in a variety of tasks. By rescoring ASR and NMT hypotheses, RoBERTa reduces an end-to-end LibriSpeech model's WER by 30% relative and adds up to +1.7 BLEU on state-of-the-art baselines for low-resource translation pairs, with further gains from domain adaptation. We attribute this success to PLL's unsupervised expression of linguistic acceptability without a left-to-right bias, greatly improving on scores from GPT-2 (+10 points on island effects, NPI licensing in BLiMP). One can finetune MLMs to give scores without masking, enabling computation in a single inference pass. In all, PLLs and their associated pseudo-perplexities (PPPLs) enable plug-and-play use of the growing number of pretrained MLMs; e.g., we use a single cross-lingual model to rescore translations in multiple languages. We release our library for language model scoring at https://github.com/awslabs/mlm-scoring.

Software systems often record important runtime information in logs to help with troubleshooting. Log-based anomaly detection has become a key research area that aims to identify system issues through log data, ultimately enhancing the reliability of software systems. Traditional deep learning methods often struggle to capture the semantic information embedded in log data, which is typically organized in natural language. In this paper, we propose LogLLM, a log-based anomaly detection framework that leverages large language models (LLMs). LogLLM employs BERT for extracting semantic vectors from log messages, while utilizing Llama, a transformer decoder-based model, for classifying log sequences. Additionally, we introduce a projector to align the vector representation spaces of BERT and Llama, ensuring a cohesive understanding of log semantics. Unlike conventional methods that require log parsers to extract templates, LogLLM preprocesses log messages with regular expressions, streamlining the entire process. Our framework is trained through a novel three-stage procedure designed to enhance performance and adaptability. Experimental results across four public datasets demonstrate that LogLLM outperforms state-of-the-art methods. Even when handling unstable logs, it effectively captures the semantic meaning of log messages and detects anomalies accurately.

Due to the sheer size of software logs, developers rely on automated techniques for log analysis. One of the first and most important steps of automated log analysis is log abstraction, which parses the raw logs into a structured format. Prior log abstraction techniques aim to identify and abstract all the dynamic variables in logs and output a static log template for automated log analysis. However, these abstracted dynamic variables may also contain important information that is useful to different tasks in log analysis. In this paper, we investigate the characteristics of dynamic variables and their importance in practice, and explore the potential of a variable-aware log abstraction technique. Through manual investigations and surveys with practitioners, we find that different categories of dynamic variables record various information that can be important depending on the given tasks, the distinction of dynamic variables in log abstraction can further assist in log analysis. We then propose a deep learning based log abstraction approach, named VALB, which can identify different categories of dynamic variables and preserve the value of specified categories of dynamic variables along with the log templates (i.e., variable-aware log abstraction). Through the evaluation on a widely used log abstraction benchmark, we find that VALB outperforms other state-of-the-art log abstraction techniques on general log abstraction (i.e., when abstracting all the dynamic variables) and also achieves a high variable-aware log abstraction accuracy that further identifies the category of the dynamic variables. Our study highlights the potential of leveraging the important information recorded in the dynamic variables to further improve the process of log analysis.

System logs are a critical resource for monitoring and managing distributed systems, providing insights into failures and anomalous behavior. Traditional log analysis techniques, including template-based and sequence-driven approaches, often lose important semantic information or struggle with ambiguous log patterns. To address this, we present EnrichLog, a training-free, entry-based anomaly detection framework that enriches raw log entries with both corpus-specific and sample-specific knowledge. EnrichLog incorporates contextual information, including historical examples and reasoning derived from the corpus, to enable more accurate and interpretable anomaly detection. The framework leverages retrieval-augmented generation to integrate relevant contextual knowledge without requiring retraining. We evaluate EnrichLog on four large-scale system log benchmark datasets and compare it against five baseline methods. Our results show that EnrichLog consistently improves anomaly detection performance, effectively handles ambiguous log entries, and maintains efficient inference. Furthermore, incorporating both corpus- and sample-specific knowledge enhances model confidence and detection accuracy, making EnrichLog well-suited for practical deployments.

Log anomaly detection is crucial for preserving the security of operating systems. Depending on the source of log data collection, various information is recorded in logs that can be considered log modalities. In light of this intuition, unimodal methods often struggle by ignoring the different modalities of log data. Meanwhile, multimodal methods fail to handle the interactions between these modalities. Applying multimodal sentiment analysis to log anomaly detection, we propose CoLog, a framework that collaboratively encodes logs utilizing various modalities. CoLog utilizes collaborative transformers and multi-head impressed attention to learn interactions among several modalities, ensuring comprehensive anomaly detection. To handle the heterogeneity caused by these interactions, CoLog incorporates a modality adaptation layer, which adapts the representations from different log modalities. This methodology enables CoLog to learn nuanced patterns and dependencies within the data, enhancing its anomaly detection capabilities. Extensive experiments demonstrate CoLog's superiority over existing state-of-the-art methods. Furthermore, in detecting both point and collective anomalies, CoLog achieves a mean precision of 99.63%, a mean recall of 99.59%, and a mean F1 score of 99.61% across seven benchmark datasets for log-based anomaly detection. The comprehensive detection capabilities of CoLog make it highly suitable for cybersecurity, system monitoring, and operational efficiency. CoLog represents a significant advancement in log anomaly detection, providing a sophisticated and effective solution to point and collective anomaly detection through a unified framework and a solution to the complex challenges automatic log data analysis poses. We also provide the implementation of CoLog at https://github.com/NasirzadehMoh/CoLog.

Logs, being run-time information automatically generated by software, record system events and activities with their timestamps. Before obtaining more insights into the run-time status of the software, a fundamental step of log analysis, called log parsing, is employed to extract structured templates and parameters from the semi-structured raw log messages. However, current log parsers are all syntax-based and regard each message as a character string, ignoring the semantic information included in parameters and templates. Thus, we propose the semantic-based parser SemParser to unlock the critical bottleneck of mining semantics from log messages. It contains two steps, an end-to-end semantic miner and a joint parser. Specifically, the first step aims to identify explicit semantics inside a single log, and the second step is responsible for jointly inferring implicit semantics and computing structural outputs based on the contextual knowledge base. To analyze the effectiveness of our semantic parser, we first demonstrate that it can derive rich semantics from log messages collected from six widely-applied systems with an average F1 score of 0.985. Then, we conduct two representative downstream tasks, showing that current downstream models improve their performance with appropriately extracted semantics by 1.2%-11.7% and 8.65% on two anomaly detection datasets and a failure identification dataset, respectively. We believe these findings provide insights into semantically understanding log messages for the log analysis community.

Software and System logs record runtime information about processes executing within a system. These logs have become the most critical and ubiquitous forms of observability data that help developers understand system behavior, monitor system health and resolve issues. However, the volume of logs generated can be humongous (of the order of petabytes per day) especially for complex distributed systems, such as cloud, search engine, social media, etc. This has propelled a lot of research on developing AI-based log based analytics and intelligence solutions that can process huge volume of raw logs and generate insights. In order to enable users to perform multiple types of AI-based log analysis tasks in a uniform manner, we introduce LogAI (https://github.com/salesforce/logai), a one-stop open source library for log analytics and intelligence. LogAI supports tasks such as log summarization, log clustering and log anomaly detection. It adopts the OpenTelemetry data model, to enable compatibility with different log management platforms. LogAI provides a unified model interface and provides popular time-series, statistical learning and deep learning models. Alongside this, LogAI also provides an out-of-the-box GUI for users to conduct interactive analysis. With LogAI, we can also easily benchmark popular deep learning algorithms for log anomaly detection without putting in redundant effort to process the logs. We have opensourced LogAI to cater to a wide range of applications benefiting both academic research and industrial prototyping.

System logs are crucial for monitoring and diagnosing modern computing infrastructure, but their scale and complexity require reliable and efficient automated interpretation. Since severity levels are predefined metadata in system log messages, having a model merely classify them offers limited standalone practical value, revealing little about its underlying ability to interpret system logs. We argue that severity classification is more informative when treated as a benchmark for probing runtime log comprehension rather than as an end task. Using real-world journalctl data from Linux production servers, we evaluate nine small language models (SLMs) and small reasoning language models (SRLMs) under zero-shot, few-shot, and retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) prompting. The results reveal strong stratification. Qwen3-4B achieves the highest accuracy at 95.64% with RAG, while Gemma3-1B improves from 20.25% under few-shot prompting to 85.28% with RAG. Notably, the tiny Qwen3-0.6B reaches 88.12% accuracy despite weak performance without retrieval. In contrast, several SRLMs, including Qwen3-1.7B and DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-1.5B, degrade substantially when paired with RAG. Efficiency measurements further separate models: most Gemma and Llama variants complete inference in under 1.2 seconds per log, whereas Phi-4-Mini-Reasoning exceeds 228 seconds per log while achieving <10% accuracy. These findings suggest that (1) architectural design, (2) training objectives, and (3) the ability to integrate retrieved context under strict output constraints jointly determine performance. By emphasizing small, deployable models, this benchmark aligns with real-time requirements of digital twin (DT) systems and shows that severity classification serves as a lens for evaluating model competence and real-time deployability, with implications for root cause analysis (RCA) and broader DT integration.

We propose an approach to estimate the number of samples required for a model to reach a target performance. We find that the power law, the de facto principle to estimate model performance, leads to large error when using a small dataset (e.g., 5 samples per class) for extrapolation. This is because the log-performance error against the log-dataset size follows a nonlinear progression in the few-shot regime followed by a linear progression in the high-shot regime. We introduce a novel piecewise power law (PPL) that handles the two data regimes differently. To estimate the parameters of the PPL, we introduce a random forest regressor trained via meta learning that generalizes across classification/detection tasks, ResNet/ViT based architectures, and random/pre-trained initializations. The PPL improves the performance estimation on average by 37% across 16 classification and 33% across 10 detection datasets, compared to the power law. We further extend the PPL to provide a confidence bound and use it to limit the prediction horizon that reduces over-estimation of data by 76% on classification and 91% on detection datasets.

System logs record detailed runtime information of software systems and are used as the main data source for many tasks around software engineering. As modern software systems are evolving into large scale and complex structures, logs have become one type of fast-growing big data in industry. In particular, such logs often need to be stored for a long time in practice (e.g., a year), in order to analyze recurrent problems or track security issues. However, archiving logs consumes a large amount of storage space and computing resources, which in turn incurs high operational cost. Data compression is essential to reduce the cost of log storage. Traditional compression tools (e.g., gzip) work well for general texts, but are not tailed for system logs. In this paper, we propose a novel and effective log compression method, namely logzip. Logzip is capable of extracting hidden structures from raw logs via fast iterative clustering and further generating coherent intermediate representations that allow for more effective compression. We evaluate logzip on five large log datasets of different system types, with a total of 63.6 GB in size. The results show that logzip can save about half of the storage space on average over traditional compression tools. Meanwhile, the design of logzip is highly parallel and only incurs negligible overhead. In addition, we share our industrial experience of applying logzip to Huawei's real products.

The increasing complexity of computer systems necessitates innovative approaches to fault and error management, going beyond traditional manual log analysis. While existing solutions using large language models (LLMs) show promise, they are limited by a gap between natural and domain-specific languages, which restricts their effectiveness in real-world applications. Our approach addresses these limitations by integrating interpretable domain knowledge into open-source LLMs through continual pre-training (CPT), enhancing performance on log tasks while retaining natural language processing capabilities. We created a comprehensive dataset, NLPLog, with over 250,000 question-answer pairs to facilitate this integration. Our model, SuperLog, trained with this dataset, achieves the best performance across four log analysis tasks, surpassing the second-best model by an average of 12.01%. Our contributions include a novel CPT paradigm that significantly improves model performance, the development of SuperLog with state-of-the-art results, and the release of a large-scale dataset to support further research in this domain.

Logs play a crucial role in system monitoring and debugging by recording valuable system information, including events and states. Although various methods have been proposed to detect anomalies in log sequences, they often overlook the significance of considering relations among system components, such as services and users, which can be identified from log contents. Understanding these relations is vital for detecting anomalies and their underlying causes. To address this issue, we introduce GLAD, a Graph-based Log Anomaly Detection framework designed to detect relational anomalies in system logs. GLAD incorporates log semantics, relational patterns, and sequential patterns into a unified framework for anomaly detection. Specifically, GLAD first introduces a field extraction module that utilizes prompt-based few-shot learning to identify essential fields from log contents. Then GLAD constructs dynamic log graphs for sliding windows by interconnecting extracted fields and log events parsed from the log parser. These graphs represent events and fields as nodes and their relations as edges. Subsequently, GLAD utilizes a temporal-attentive graph edge anomaly detection model for identifying anomalous relations in these dynamic log graphs. This model employs a Graph Neural Network (GNN)-based encoder enhanced with transformers to capture content, structural and temporal features. We evaluate our proposed method on three datasets, and the results demonstrate the effectiveness of GLAD in detecting anomalies indicated by varying relational patterns.

Event log analysis is an important task that security professionals undertake. Event logs record key information on activities that occur on computing devices, and due to the substantial number of events generated, they consume a large amount of time and resources to analyse. This demanding and repetitive task is also prone to errors. To address these concerns, researchers have developed automated techniques to improve the event log analysis process. Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated the ability to successfully perform a wide range of tasks that individuals would usually partake in, to high standards, and at a pace and degree of complexity that outperform humans. Due to this, researchers are rapidly investigating the use of LLMs for event log analysis. This includes fine-tuning, Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) and in-context learning, which affect performance. These works demonstrate good progress, yet there is a need to understand the developing body of knowledge, identify commonalities between works, and identify key challenges and potential solutions to further developments in this domain. This paper aims to survey LLM-based event log analysis techniques, providing readers with an in-depth overview of the domain, gaps identified in previous research, and concluding with potential avenues to explore in future.

Logging is a critical function in modern distributed applications, but the lack of standardization in log query languages and formats creates significant challenges. Developers currently must write ad hoc queries in platform-specific languages, requiring expertise in both the query language and application-specific log details -- an impractical expectation given the variety of platforms and volume of logs and applications. While generating these queries with large language models (LLMs) seems intuitive, we show that current LLMs struggle with log-specific query generation due to the lack of exposure to domain-specific knowledge. We propose a novel natural language (NL) interface to address these inconsistencies and aide log query generation, enabling developers to create queries in a target log query language by providing NL inputs. We further introduce ~NL2QL, a manually annotated, real-world dataset of natural language questions paired with corresponding LogQL queries spread across three log formats, to promote the training and evaluation of NL-to-loq query systems. Using NL2QL, we subsequently fine-tune and evaluate several state of the art LLMs, and demonstrate their improved capability to generate accurate LogQL queries. We perform further ablation studies to demonstrate the effect of additional training data, and the transferability across different log formats. In our experiments, we find up to 75\% improvement of finetuned models to generate LogQL queries compared to non finetuned models.

To compare autoregressive language models at scale, we propose using log-likelihood vectors computed on a predefined text set as model features. This approach has a solid theoretical basis: when treated as model coordinates, their squared Euclidean distance approximates the Kullback-Leibler divergence of text-generation probabilities. Our method is highly scalable, with computational cost growing linearly in both the number of models and text samples, and is easy to implement as the required features are derived from cross-entropy loss. Applying this method to over 1,000 language models, we constructed a "model map," providing a new perspective on large-scale model analysis.

The success of Large Language Models (LLMs) relies heavily on the huge amount of pre-training data learned in the pre-training phase. The opacity of the pre-training process and the training data causes the results of many benchmark tests to become unreliable. If any model has been trained on a benchmark test set, it can seriously hinder the health of the field. In order to automate and efficiently test the capabilities of large language models, numerous mainstream benchmarks adopt a multiple-choice format. As the swapping of the contents of multiple-choice options does not affect the meaning of the question itself, we propose a simple and effective data leakage detection method based on this property. Specifically, we shuffle the contents of the options in the data to generate the corresponding derived data sets, and then detect data leakage based on the model's log probability distribution over the derived data sets. If there is a maximum and outlier in the set of log probabilities, it indicates that the data is leaked. Our method is able to work under black-box conditions without access to model training data or weights, effectively identifying data leakage from benchmark test sets in model pre-training data, including both normal scenarios and complex scenarios where options may have been shuffled intentionally or unintentionally. Through experiments based on two LLMs and benchmark designs, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. In addition, we evaluate the degree of data leakage of 31 mainstream open-source LLMs on four benchmark datasets and give a ranking of the leaked LLMs for each benchmark, and we find that the Qwen family of LLMs has the highest degree of data leakage.

There is a long history, as well as a recent explosion of interest, in statistical and generative modeling approaches based on score functions -- derivatives of the log-likelihood of a distribution. In seminal works, Hyv\"arinen proposed vanilla score matching as a way to learn distributions from data by computing an estimate of the score function of the underlying ground truth, and established connections between this method and established techniques like Contrastive Divergence and Pseudolikelihood estimation. It is by now well-known that vanilla score matching has significant difficulties learning multimodal distributions. Although there are various ways to overcome this difficulty, the following question has remained unanswered -- is there a natural way to sample multimodal distributions using just the vanilla score? Inspired by a long line of related experimental works, we prove that the Langevin diffusion with early stopping, initialized at the empirical distribution, and run on a score function estimated from data successfully generates natural multimodal distributions (mixtures of log-concave distributions).

Many existing conditional score-based data generation methods utilize Bayes' theorem to decompose the gradients of a log posterior density into a mixture of scores. These methods facilitate the training procedure of conditional score models, as a mixture of scores can be separately estimated using a score model and a classifier. However, our analysis indicates that the training objectives for the classifier in these methods may lead to a serious score mismatch issue, which corresponds to the situation that the estimated scores deviate from the true ones. Such an issue causes the samples to be misled by the deviated scores during the diffusion process, resulting in a degraded sampling quality. To resolve it, we formulate a novel training objective, called Denoising Likelihood Score Matching (DLSM) loss, for the classifier to match the gradients of the true log likelihood density. Our experimental evidence shows that the proposed method outperforms the previous methods on both Cifar-10 and Cifar-100 benchmarks noticeably in terms of several key evaluation metrics. We thus conclude that, by adopting DLSM, the conditional scores can be accurately modeled, and the effect of the score mismatch issue is alleviated.

The collection of security-related logs holds the key to understanding attack behaviors and diagnosing vulnerabilities. Still, their analysis remains a daunting challenge. Recently, Language Models (LMs) have demonstrated unmatched potential in understanding natural and programming languages. The question arises whether and how LMs could be also useful for security experts since their logs contain intrinsically confused and obfuscated information. In this paper, we systematically study how to benefit from the state-of-the-art in LM to automatically analyze text-like Unix shell attack logs. We present a thorough design methodology that leads to LogPr\'ecis. It receives as input raw shell sessions and automatically identifies and assigns the attacker tactic to each portion of the session, i.e., unveiling the sequence of the attacker's goals. We demonstrate LogPr\'ecis capability to support the analysis of two large datasets containing about 400,000 unique Unix shell attacks. LogPr\'ecis reduces them into about 3,000 fingerprints, each grouping sessions with the same sequence of tactics. The abstraction it provides lets the analyst better understand attacks, identify fingerprints, detect novelty, link similar attacks, and track families and mutations. Overall, LogPr\'ecis, released as open source, paves the way for better and more responsive defense against cyberattacks.

Rich and context-aware activity logs facilitate user behavior analysis and health monitoring, making them a key research focus in ubiquitous computing. The remarkable semantic understanding and generation capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently created new opportunities for activity log generation. However, existing methods continue to exhibit notable limitations in terms of accuracy, efficiency, and semantic richness. To address these challenges, we propose DailyLLM. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first log generation and summarization system that comprehensively integrates contextual activity information across four dimensions: location, motion, environment, and physiology, using only sensors commonly available on smartphones and smartwatches. To achieve this, DailyLLM introduces a lightweight LLM-based framework that integrates structured prompting with efficient feature extraction to enable high-level activity understanding. Extensive experiments demonstrate that DailyLLM outperforms state-of-the-art (SOTA) log generation methods and can be efficiently deployed on personal computers and Raspberry Pi. Utilizing only a 1.5B-parameter LLM model, DailyLLM achieves a 17% improvement in log generation BERTScore precision compared to the 70B-parameter SOTA baseline, while delivering nearly 10x faster inference speed.

Verifying the provenance of content is crucial to the function of many organizations, e.g., educational institutions, social media platforms, firms, etc. This problem is becoming increasingly difficult as text generated by Large Language Models (LLMs) becomes almost indistinguishable from human-generated content. In addition, many institutions utilize in-house LLMs and want to ensure that external, non-sanctioned LLMs do not produce content within the institution. In this paper, we answer the following question: Given a piece of text, can we identify whether it was produced by LLM A or B (where B can be a human)? We model LLM-generated text as a sequential stochastic process with complete dependence on history and design zero-shot statistical tests to distinguish between (i) the text generated by two different sets of LLMs A (in-house) and B (non-sanctioned) and also (ii) LLM-generated and human-generated texts. We prove that the type I and type II errors for our tests decrease exponentially in the text length. In designing our tests, we derive concentration inequalities on the difference between log-perplexity and the average entropy of the string under A. Specifically, for a given string, we demonstrate that if the string is generated by A, the log-perplexity of the string under A converges to the average entropy of the string under A, except with an exponentially small probability in string length. We also show that if B generates the text, except with an exponentially small probability in string length, the log-perplexity of the string under A converges to the average cross-entropy of B and A. Lastly, we present preliminary experimental results to support our theoretical results. By enabling guaranteed (with high probability) finding of the origin of harmful LLM-generated text with arbitrary size, we can help combat misinformation.

Large language models (LMs) have been shown to memorize parts of their training data, and when prompted appropriately, they will emit the memorized training data verbatim. This is undesirable because memorization violates privacy (exposing user data), degrades utility (repeated easy-to-memorize text is often low quality), and hurts fairness (some texts are memorized over others). We describe three log-linear relationships that quantify the degree to which LMs emit memorized training data. Memorization significantly grows as we increase (1) the capacity of a model, (2) the number of times an example has been duplicated, and (3) the number of tokens of context used to prompt the model. Surprisingly, we find the situation becomes more complicated when generalizing these results across model families. On the whole, we find that memorization in LMs is more prevalent than previously believed and will likely get worse as models continues to scale, at least without active mitigations.

EHR audit logs are a highly granular stream of events that capture clinician activities, and is a significant area of interest for research in characterizing clinician workflow on the electronic health record (EHR). Existing techniques to measure the complexity of workflow through EHR audit logs (audit logs) involve time- or frequency-based cross-sectional aggregations that are unable to capture the full complexity of a EHR session. We briefly evaluate the usage of transformer-based tabular language model (tabular LM) in measuring the entropy or disorderedness of action sequences within workflow and release the evaluated models publicly.

The fluency and factual knowledge of large language models (LLMs) heightens the need for corresponding systems to detect whether a piece of text is machine-written. For example, students may use LLMs to complete written assignments, leaving instructors unable to accurately assess student learning. In this paper, we first demonstrate that text sampled from an LLM tends to occupy negative curvature regions of the model's log probability function. Leveraging this observation, we then define a new curvature-based criterion for judging if a passage is generated from a given LLM. This approach, which we call DetectGPT, does not require training a separate classifier, collecting a dataset of real or generated passages, or explicitly watermarking generated text. It uses only log probabilities computed by the model of interest and random perturbations of the passage from another generic pre-trained language model (e.g, T5). We find DetectGPT is more discriminative than existing zero-shot methods for model sample detection, notably improving detection of fake news articles generated by 20B parameter GPT-NeoX from 0.81 AUROC for the strongest zero-shot baseline to 0.95 AUROC for DetectGPT. See https://ericmitchell.ai/detectgpt for code, data, and other project information.

In this work, we conduct an extensive comparison of various approaches to speech based emotion recognition systems. The analyses were carried out on audio recordings from Ryerson Audio-Visual Database of Emotional Speech and Song (RAVDESS). After pre-processing the raw audio files, features such as Log-Mel Spectrogram, Mel-Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCCs), pitch and energy were considered. The significance of these features for emotion classification was compared by applying methods such as Long Short Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) and Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). On the 14-class (2 genders x 7 emotions) classification task, an accuracy of 68% was achieved with a 4-layer 2 dimensional CNN using the Log-Mel Spectrogram features. We also observe that, in emotion recognition, the choice of audio features impacts the results much more than the model complexity.

With the increase in availability of large pre-trained language models (LMs) in Natural Language Processing (NLP), it becomes critical to assess their fit for a specific target task a priori - as fine-tuning the entire space of available LMs is computationally prohibitive and unsustainable. However, encoder transferability estimation has received little to no attention in NLP. In this paper, we propose to generate quantitative evidence to predict which LM, out of a pool of models, will perform best on a target task without having to fine-tune all candidates. We provide a comprehensive study on LM ranking for 10 NLP tasks spanning the two fundamental problem types of classification and structured prediction. We adopt the state-of-the-art Logarithm of Maximum Evidence (LogME) measure from Computer Vision (CV) and find that it positively correlates with final LM performance in 94% of the setups. In the first study of its kind, we further compare transferability measures with the de facto standard of human practitioner ranking, finding that evidence from quantitative metrics is more robust than pure intuition and can help identify unexpected LM candidates.

Given a matrix Ain R^{ntimes d} and a vector bin R^n, we consider the regression problem with ell_infty guarantees: finding a vector x'in R^d such that |x'-x^*|_infty leq epsilon{d}cdot |Ax^*-b|_2cdot |A^dagger| where x^*=argmin_{xin R^d}|Ax-b|_2. One popular approach for solving such ell_2 regression problem is via sketching: picking a structured random matrix Sin R^{mtimes n} with mll n and SA can be quickly computed, solve the ``sketched'' regression problem argmin_{xin R^d} |SAx-Sb|_2. In this paper, we show that in order to obtain such ell_infty guarantee for ell_2 regression, one has to use sketching matrices that are dense. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first user case in which dense sketching matrices are necessary. On the algorithmic side, we prove that there exists a distribution of dense sketching matrices with m=epsilon^{-2}dlog^3(n/delta) such that solving the sketched regression problem gives the ell_infty guarantee, with probability at least 1-delta. Moreover, the matrix SA can be computed in time O(ndlog n). Our row count is nearly-optimal up to logarithmic factors, and significantly improves the result in [Price, Song and Woodruff, ICALP'17], in which a super-linear in d rows, m=Omega(epsilon^{-2}d^{1+gamma}) for gamma=Theta(frac{loglog n{log d}}) is required. We also develop a novel analytical framework for ell_infty guarantee regression that utilizes the Oblivious Coordinate-wise Embedding (OCE) property introduced in [Song and Yu, ICML'21]. Our analysis is arguably much simpler and more general than [Price, Song and Woodruff, ICALP'17], and it extends to dense sketches for tensor product of vectors.

Deploying LLMs raises two coupled challenges: (1) monitoring - estimating where a model underperforms as traffic and domains drift - and (2) improvement - prioritizing data acquisition to close the largest performance gaps. We test whether an inference-time signal can estimate slice-level accuracy under domain shift. For each response, we compute an output-entropy profile from final-layer next-token probabilities (from top-k logprobs) and summarize it with eleven statistics. A lightweight classifier predicts instance correctness, and averaging predicted probabilities yields a domain-level accuracy estimate. We evaluate on ten STEM reasoning benchmarks with exhaustive train/test compositions (k in {1,2,3,4}; all "10 choose k" combinations), across nine LLMs from six families (3B-20B). Estimates often track held-out benchmark accuracy, and several models show near-monotonic ordering of domains. Output-entropy profiles are thus an accessible signal for scalable monitoring and for targeting data acquisition.

Knowledge probing assesses to which degree a language model (LM) has successfully learned relational knowledge during pre-training. Probing is an inexpensive way to compare LMs of different sizes and training configurations. However, previous approaches rely on the objective function used in pre-training LMs and are thus applicable only to masked or causal LMs. As a result, comparing different types of LMs becomes impossible. To address this, we propose an approach that uses an LM's inherent ability to estimate the log-likelihood of any given textual statement. We carefully design an evaluation dataset of 7,731 instances (40,916 in a larger variant) from which we produce alternative statements for each relational fact, one of which is correct. We then evaluate whether an LM correctly assigns the highest log-likelihood to the correct statement. Our experimental evaluation of 22 common LMs shows that our proposed framework, BEAR, can effectively probe for knowledge across different LM types. We release the BEAR datasets and an open-source framework that implements the probing approach to the research community to facilitate the evaluation and development of LMs.

We present a new methodology for detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) images by utilizing norms of the score estimates at multiple noise scales. A score is defined to be the gradient of the log density with respect to the input data. Our methodology is completely unsupervised and follows a straight forward training scheme. First, we train a deep network to estimate scores for levels of noise. Once trained, we calculate the noisy score estimates for N in-distribution samples and take the L2-norms across the input dimensions (resulting in an NxL matrix). Then we train an auxiliary model (such as a Gaussian Mixture Model) to learn the in-distribution spatial regions in this L-dimensional space. This auxiliary model can now be used to identify points that reside outside the learned space. Despite its simplicity, our experiments show that this methodology significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art in detecting out-of-distribution images. For example, our method can effectively separate CIFAR-10 (inlier) and SVHN (OOD) images, a setting which has been previously shown to be difficult for deep likelihood models.

Detecting anomalous events in online computer systems is crucial to protect the systems from malicious attacks or malfunctions. System logs, which record detailed information of computational events, are widely used for system status analysis. In this paper, we propose LogBERT, a self-supervised framework for log anomaly detection based on Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT). LogBERT learns the patterns of normal log sequences by two novel self-supervised training tasks and is able to detect anomalies where the underlying patterns deviate from normal log sequences. The experimental results on three log datasets show that LogBERT outperforms state-of-the-art approaches for anomaly detection.

Scaling laws offer valuable insights into the design of time series foundation models (TSFMs). However, previous research has largely focused on the scaling laws of TSFMs for in-distribution (ID) data, leaving their out-of-distribution (OOD) scaling behavior and the influence of model architectures less explored. In this work, we examine two common TSFM architectures, encoder-only and decoder-only Transformers, and investigate their scaling behavior on both ID and OOD data. These models are trained and evaluated across varying parameter counts, compute budgets, and dataset sizes. Our experiments reveal that the log-likelihood loss of TSFMs exhibits similar scaling behavior in both OOD and ID settings. We further compare the scaling properties across different architectures, incorporating two state-of-the-art TSFMs as case studies, showing that model architecture plays a significant role in scaling. The encoder-only Transformers demonstrate better scalability than the decoder-only Transformers, while the architectural enhancements in the two advanced TSFMs primarily improve ID performance but reduce OOD scalability. While scaling up TSFMs is expected to drive performance breakthroughs, the lack of a comprehensive understanding of TSFM scaling laws has hindered the development of a robust framework to guide model scaling. We fill this gap in this work by synthesizing our findings and providing practical guidelines for designing and scaling larger TSFMs with enhanced model capabilities.

In the rapidly evolving realm of artificial intelligence, deploying large language models (LLMs) poses increasingly pressing computational and environmental challenges. This paper introduces MELODI - Monitoring Energy Levels and Optimization for Data-driven Inference - a multifaceted framework crafted to monitor and analyze the energy consumed during LLM inference processes. MELODI enables detailed observations of power consumption dynamics and facilitates the creation of a comprehensive dataset reflective of energy efficiency across varied deployment scenarios. The dataset, generated using MELODI, encompasses a broad spectrum of LLM deployment frameworks, multiple language models, and extensive prompt datasets, enabling a comparative analysis of energy use. Using the dataset, we investigate how prompt attributes, including length and complexity, correlate with energy expenditure. Our findings indicate substantial disparities in energy efficiency, suggesting ample scope for optimization and adoption of sustainable measures in LLM deployment. Our contribution lies not only in the MELODI framework but also in the novel dataset, a resource that can be expanded by other researchers. Thus, MELODI is a foundational tool and dataset for advancing research into energy-conscious LLM deployment, steering the field toward a more sustainable future.

Many evaluation measures are used to evaluate social biases in masked language models (MLMs). However, we find that these previously proposed evaluation measures are lacking robustness in scenarios with limited datasets. This is because these measures are obtained by comparing the pseudo-log-likelihood (PLL) scores of the stereotypical and anti-stereotypical samples using an indicator function. The disadvantage is the limited mining of the PLL score sets without capturing its distributional information. In this paper, we represent a PLL score set as a Gaussian distribution and use Kullback Leibler (KL) divergence and Jensen Shannon (JS) divergence to construct evaluation measures for the distributions of stereotypical and anti-stereotypical PLL scores. Experimental results on the publicly available datasets StereoSet (SS) and CrowS-Pairs (CP) show that our proposed measures are significantly more robust and interpretable than those proposed previously.

Logs are essential for understanding Continuous Integration (CI) behavior, particularly for diagnosing build failures and performance regressions. Yet their growing volume and verbosity make both manual inspection and automated analysis increasingly costly, time-consuming, and environmentally costly. While prior work has explored log compression, anomaly detection, and LLM-based log analysis, most efforts target structured system logs rather than the unstructured, noisy, and verbose logs typical of CI workflows. We present LogSieve, a lightweight, RCA-aware and semantics-preserving log reduction technique that filters low-information lines while retaining content relevant to downstream reasoning. Evaluated on CI logs from 20 open-source Android projects using GitHub Actions, LogSieve achieves an average 42% reduction in lines and 40% reduction in tokens with minimal semantic loss. This pre-inference reduction lowers computational cost and can proportionally reduce energy use (and associated emissions) by decreasing the volume of data processed during LLM inference. Compared with structure-first baselines (LogZip and random-line removal), LogSieve preserves much higher semantic and categorical fidelity (Cosine = 0.93, GPTScore = 0.93, 80% exact-match accuracy). Embedding-based classifiers automate relevance detection with near-human accuracy (97%), enabling scalable and sustainable integration of semantics-aware filtering into CI workflows. LogSieve thus bridges log management and LLM reasoning, offering a practical path toward greener and more interpretable CI automation.

Audio pattern recognition is an important research topic in the machine learning area, and includes several tasks such as audio tagging, acoustic scene classification, music classification, speech emotion classification and sound event detection. Recently, neural networks have been applied to tackle audio pattern recognition problems. However, previous systems are built on specific datasets with limited durations. Recently, in computer vision and natural language processing, systems pretrained on large-scale datasets have generalized well to several tasks. However, there is limited research on pretraining systems on large-scale datasets for audio pattern recognition. In this paper, we propose pretrained audio neural networks (PANNs) trained on the large-scale AudioSet dataset. These PANNs are transferred to other audio related tasks. We investigate the performance and computational complexity of PANNs modeled by a variety of convolutional neural networks. We propose an architecture called Wavegram-Logmel-CNN using both log-mel spectrogram and waveform as input feature. Our best PANN system achieves a state-of-the-art mean average precision (mAP) of 0.439 on AudioSet tagging, outperforming the best previous system of 0.392. We transfer PANNs to six audio pattern recognition tasks, and demonstrate state-of-the-art performance in several of those tasks. We have released the source code and pretrained models of PANNs: https://github.com/qiuqiangkong/audioset_tagging_cnn.

Modern ML systems ingest data aggregated from diverse sources, such as synthetic, human-annotated, and live customer traffic. Understanding which examples are important to the performance of a learning algorithm is crucial for efficient model training. Recently, a growing body of literature has given rise to various "influence scores," which use training artifacts such as model confidence or checkpointed gradients to identify important subsets of data. However, these methods have primarily been developed in computer vision settings, and it remains unclear how well they generalize to language-based tasks using pretrained models. In this paper, we explore the applicability of influence scores in language classification tasks. We evaluate a diverse subset of these scores on the SNLI dataset by quantifying accuracy changes in response to pruning training data through random and influence-score-based sampling. We then stress-test one of the scores -- "variance of gradients" (VoG) from Agarwal et al. (2022) -- in an NLU model stack that was exposed to dynamic user speech patterns in a voice assistant type of setting. Our experiments demonstrate that in many cases, encoder-based language models can be finetuned on roughly 50% of the original data without degradation in performance metrics. Along the way, we summarize lessons learned from applying out-of-the-box implementations of influence scores, quantify the effects of noisy and class-imbalanced data, and offer recommendations on score-based sampling for better accuracy and training efficiency.

We present MELLE, a novel continuous-valued tokens based language modeling approach for text to speech synthesis (TTS). MELLE autoregressively generates continuous mel-spectrogram frames directly from text condition, bypassing the need for vector quantization, which are originally designed for audio compression and sacrifice fidelity compared to mel-spectrograms. Specifically, (i) instead of cross-entropy loss, we apply regression loss with a proposed spectrogram flux loss function to model the probability distribution of the continuous-valued tokens. (ii) we have incorporated variational inference into MELLE to facilitate sampling mechanisms, thereby enhancing the output diversity and model robustness. Experiments demonstrate that, compared to the two-stage codec language models VALL-E and its variants, the single-stage MELLE mitigates robustness issues by avoiding the inherent flaws of sampling discrete codes, achieves superior performance across multiple metrics, and, most importantly, offers a more streamlined paradigm. See https://aka.ms/melle for demos of our work.

Language models often show little to no improvement (i.e., "saturation") when trained via vanilla supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on data similar to what they saw in their training set (e.g., MATH). We introduce a new fine-tuning strategy, STAT, to train such a student model by using the metacognition ability of a stronger large language model (LLM) as the teacher. The teacher uses the task dataset to create a list of skills needed for the task, and then labels each data point with its required skills (Didolkar et al., 2024). By monitoring the student's answers, the teacher creates a Missing-Skill-Profile for the student, tracking how often they failed to apply each skill in their responses. We use this idea to build a modified training set in one of two ways. In STAT-Sel, the teacher uses an existing set of training examples but adaptively reweights them according to the Missing-Skill-Profile. In STAT-Syn, the teacher synthesizes additional examples involving missing skills. Across extensive experiments on Llama and Qwen models, our methods yield improvements of up to 7.5% on MATH, whereas SFT provides only limited gains. Furthermore, STAT enhances performance on out-of-distribution benchmarks (e.g., AIME24/25, AMC23, etc.) by an average of 4.6%. Crucially, we find that STAT is complementary to RL via GRPO (Shao et al., 2024): after the model is improved using STAT to address skill gaps, GRPO continues to add further gains. We conclude that skill-targeted adaptive training should broadly improve current training pipelines. Our code is available at: https://github.com/princeton-pli/STAT.

Memorization, or the tendency of large language models (LLMs) to output entire sequences from their training data verbatim, is a key concern for safely deploying language models. In particular, it is vital to minimize a model's memorization of sensitive datapoints such as those containing personal identifiable information (PII). The prevalence of such undesirable memorization can pose issues for model trainers, and may even require discarding an otherwise functional model. We therefore seek to predict which sequences will be memorized before a large model's full train-time by extrapolating the memorization behavior of lower-compute trial runs. We measure memorization of the Pythia model suite and plot scaling laws for forecasting memorization, allowing us to provide equi-compute recommendations to maximize the reliability (recall) of such predictions. We additionally provide further novel discoveries on the distribution of memorization scores across models and data. We release all code and data necessary to reproduce the results in this paper at https://github.com/EleutherAI/pythia

Large Language Models (LLMs) often expend significant computational resources generating boilerplate responses, such as refusals, simple acknowledgements and casual greetings, which adds unnecessary cost and latency. To address this inefficiency, we propose a simple yet highly effective method for detecting such responses after only a single generation step. We demonstrate that the log-probability distribution of the first generated token serves as a powerful signal for classifying the nature of the entire subsequent response. Our experiments, conducted across a diverse range of small, large, and reasoning-specialized models, show that the first-token log-probability vectors form distinctly separable clusters for different response types. Using a lightweight k-NN classifier, we achieve high accuracy in predicting whether a response will be a substantive answer or a form of boilerplate response, including user-specified refusals. The primary implication is a practical, computationally trivial technique, optimizing LLM inference by enabling early termination or redirection to a smaller model, thereby yielding significant savings in computational cost. This work presents a direct path toward more efficient and sustainable LLM deployment.

Reliable uncertainty quantification remains a central challenge in predictive modeling. While Bayesian methods are theoretically appealing, their predictive intervals can exhibit poor frequentist calibration, particularly with small sample sizes or model misspecification. We introduce a practical and broadly applicable Bayesian conformal approach based on the influence-function Bayesian bootstrap (BB) with data-driven tuning of the Dirichlet concentration parameter, α. By efficiently approximating the Bayesian bootstrap predictive distribution via influence functions and calibrating α to optimize empirical coverage or average log-probability, our method constructs prediction intervals and distributions that are both well-calibrated and sharp. Across a range of regression models and data settings, this Bayesian conformal framework consistently yields improved empirical coverage and log-score compared to standard Bayesian posteriors. Our procedure is fast, easy to implement, and offers a flexible approach for distributional calibration in predictive modeling.

In this paper, we propose to unify the two aspects of voice synthesis, namely text-to-speech (TTS) and vocoder, into one framework based on a pair of forward and reverse-time linear stochastic differential equations (SDE). The solutions of this SDE pair are two stochastic processes, one of which turns the distribution of mel spectrogram (or wave), that we want to generate, into a simple and tractable distribution. The other is the generation procedure that turns this tractable simple signal into the target mel spectrogram (or wave). The model that generates mel spectrogram is called It\^oTTS, and the model that generates wave is called It\^oWave. It\^oTTS and It\^oWave use the Wiener process as a driver to gradually subtract the excess signal from the noise signal to generate realistic corresponding meaningful mel spectrogram and audio respectively, under the conditional inputs of original text or mel spectrogram. The results of the experiment show that the mean opinion scores (MOS) of It\^oTTS and It\^oWave can exceed the current state-of-the-art methods, and reached 3.925pm0.160 and 4.35pm0.115 respectively. The generated audio samples are available at https://wushoule.github.io/ItoAudio/. All authors contribute equally to this work.

Multimodal click-through rate (CTR) prediction is a key technique in industrial recommender systems. It leverages heterogeneous modalities such as text, images, and behavioral logs to capture high-order feature interactions between users and items, thereby enhancing the system's understanding of user interests and its ability to predict click behavior. The primary challenge in this field lies in effectively utilizing the rich semantic information from multiple modalities while satisfying the low-latency requirements of online inference in real-world applications. To foster progress in this area, the Multimodal CTR Prediction Challenge Track of the WWW 2025 EReL@MIR Workshop formulates the problem into two tasks: (1) Task 1 of Multimodal Item Embedding: this task aims to explore multimodal information extraction and item representation learning methods that enhance recommendation tasks; and (2) Task 2 of Multimodal CTR Prediction: this task aims to explore what multimodal recommendation model can effectively leverage multimodal embedding features and achieve better performance. In this paper, we propose a novel model for Task 2, named Quadratic Interest Network (QIN) for Multimodal CTR Prediction. Specifically, QIN employs adaptive sparse target attention to extract multimodal user behavior features, and leverages Quadratic Neural Networks to capture high-order feature interactions. As a result, QIN achieved an AUC of 0.9798 on the leaderboard and ranked second in the competition. The model code, training logs, hyperparameter configurations, and checkpoints are available at https://github.com/salmon1802/QIN.

Text generation models are notoriously vulnerable to errors in the training data. With the wide-spread availability of massive amounts of web-crawled data becoming more commonplace, how can we enhance the robustness of models trained on a massive amount of noisy web-crawled text? In our work, we propose Error Norm Truncation (ENT), a robust enhancement method to the standard training objective that truncates noisy data. Compared to methods that only uses the negative log-likelihood loss to estimate data quality, our method provides a more accurate estimation by considering the distribution of non-target tokens, which is often overlooked by previous work. Through comprehensive experiments across language modeling, machine translation, and text summarization, we show that equipping text generation models with ENT improves generation quality over standard training and previous soft and hard truncation methods. Furthermore, we show that our method improves the robustness of models against two of the most detrimental types of noise in machine translation, resulting in an increase of more than 2 BLEU points over the MLE baseline when up to 50% of noise is added to the data.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown stellar achievements in solving a broad range of tasks. When generating text, it is common to sample tokens from these models: whether LLMs closely align with the human disagreement distribution has not been well-studied, especially within the scope of Natural Language Inference (NLI). In this paper, we evaluate the performance and alignment of LLM distribution with humans using two different techniques: Monte Carlo Reconstruction (MCR) and Log Probability Reconstruction (LPR). As a result, we show LLMs exhibit limited ability in solving NLI tasks and simultaneously fail to capture human disagreement distribution, raising concerns about their natural language understanding (NLU) ability and their representativeness of human users.

We consider a number of graph kernels and proximity measures including commute time kernel, regularized Laplacian kernel, heat kernel, exponential diffusion kernel (also called "communicability"), etc., and the corresponding distances as applied to clustering nodes in random graphs and several well-known datasets. The model of generating random graphs involves edge probabilities for the pairs of nodes that belong to the same class or different predefined classes of nodes. It turns out that in most cases, logarithmic measures (i.e., measures resulting after taking logarithm of the proximities) perform better while distinguishing underlying classes than the "plain" measures. A comparison in terms of reject curves of inter-class and intra-class distances confirms this conclusion. A similar conclusion can be made for several well-known datasets. A possible origin of this effect is that most kernels have a multiplicative nature, while the nature of distances used in cluster algorithms is an additive one (cf. the triangle inequality). The logarithmic transformation is a tool to transform the first nature to the second one. Moreover, some distances corresponding to the logarithmic measures possess a meaningful cutpoint additivity property. In our experiments, the leader is usually the logarithmic Communicability measure. However, we indicate some more complicated cases in which other measures, typically, Communicability and plain Walk, can be the winners.

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated significant potential in the field of Recommendation Systems (RSs). Most existing studies have focused on converting user behavior logs into textual prompts and leveraging techniques such as prompt tuning to enable LLMs for recommendation tasks. Meanwhile, research interest has recently grown in multimodal recommendation systems that integrate data from images, text, and other sources using modality fusion techniques. This introduces new challenges to the existing LLM-based recommendation paradigm which relies solely on text modality information. Moreover, although Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) capable of processing multi-modal inputs have emerged, how to equip MLLMs with multi-modal recommendation capabilities remains largely unexplored. To this end, in this paper, we propose the Multimodal Large Language Model-enhanced Multimodaln Sequential Recommendation (MLLM-MSR) model. To capture the dynamic user preference, we design a two-stage user preference summarization method. Specifically, we first utilize an MLLM-based item-summarizer to extract image feature given an item and convert the image into text. Then, we employ a recurrent user preference summarization generation paradigm to capture the dynamic changes in user preferences based on an LLM-based user-summarizer. Finally, to enable the MLLM for multi-modal recommendation task, we propose to fine-tune a MLLM-based recommender using Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) techniques. Extensive evaluations across various datasets validate the effectiveness of MLLM-MSR, showcasing its superior ability to capture and adapt to the evolving dynamics of user preferences.

Large Language Models (LLMs) vary in their abilities on a range of tasks. Initiatives such as the Open LLM Leaderboard aim to quantify these differences with several large benchmarks (sets of test items to which an LLM can respond either correctly or incorrectly). However, high correlations within and between benchmark scores suggest that (1) there exists a small set of common underlying abilities that these benchmarks measure, and (2) items tap into redundant information and the benchmarks may thus be considerably compressed. We use data from n > 5000 LLMs to identify the most informative items of six benchmarks, ARC, GSM8K, HellaSwag, MMLU, TruthfulQA and WinoGrande (with d=28,632 items in total). From them we distill a sparse benchmark, metabench, that has less than 3% of the original size of all six benchmarks combined. This new sparse benchmark goes beyond point scores by yielding estimators of the underlying benchmark-specific abilities. We show that these estimators (1) can be used to reconstruct each original individual benchmark score with, on average, 1.5% root mean square error (RMSE), (2) reconstruct the original total score with 0.8% RMSE, and (3) have a single underlying common factor whose Spearman correlation with the total score is r = 0.93.

Maximizing the log-likelihood is a crucial aspect of learning latent variable models, and variational inference (VI) stands as the commonly adopted method. However, VI can encounter challenges in achieving a high log-likelihood when dealing with complicated posterior distributions. In response to this limitation, we introduce a novel variational importance sampling (VIS) approach that directly estimates and maximizes the log-likelihood. VIS leverages the optimal proposal distribution, achieved by minimizing the forward chi^2 divergence, to enhance log-likelihood estimation. We apply VIS to various popular latent variable models, including mixture models, variational auto-encoders, and partially observable generalized linear models. Results demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, both in terms of log-likelihood and model parameter estimation.

Representations from transformer-based unidirectional language models are known to be effective at predicting brain responses to natural language. However, most studies comparing language models to brains have used GPT-2 or similarly sized language models. Here we tested whether larger open-source models such as those from the OPT and LLaMA families are better at predicting brain responses recorded using fMRI. Mirroring scaling results from other contexts, we found that brain prediction performance scales log-linearly with model size from 125M to 30B parameter models, with ~15% increased encoding performance as measured by correlation with a held-out test set across 3 subjects. Similar log-linear behavior was observed when scaling the size of the fMRI training set. We also characterized scaling for acoustic encoding models that use HuBERT, WavLM, and Whisper, and we found comparable improvements with model size. A noise ceiling analysis of these large, high-performance encoding models showed that performance is nearing the theoretical maximum for brain areas such as the precuneus and higher auditory cortex. These results suggest that increasing scale in both models and data will yield incredibly effective models of language processing in the brain, enabling better scientific understanding as well as applications such as decoding.

Guided by the belief of the scaling law, large language models (LLMs) have achieved impressive performance in recent years. However, scaling law only gives a qualitative estimation of loss, which is influenced by various factors such as model architectures, data distributions, tokenizers, and computation precision. Thus, estimating the real performance of LLMs with different training settings rather than loss may be quite useful in practical development. In this article, we present an empirical equation named "Performance Law" to directly predict the MMLU score of an LLM, which is a widely used metric to indicate the general capability of LLMs in real-world conversations and applications. Based on only a few key hyperparameters of the LLM architecture and the size of training data, we obtain a quite accurate MMLU prediction of various LLMs with diverse sizes and architectures developed by different organizations in different years. Performance law can be used to guide the choice of LLM architecture and the effective allocation of computational resources without extensive experiments.

Masked language models (MLM) do not explicitly define a distribution over language, i.e., they are not language models per se. However, recent work has implicitly treated them as such for the purposes of generation and scoring. This paper studies methods for deriving explicit joint distributions from MLMs, focusing on distributions over two tokens, which makes it possible to calculate exact distributional properties. We find that an approach based on identifying joints whose conditionals are closest to those of the MLM works well and outperforms existing Markov random field-based approaches. We further find that this derived model's conditionals can even occasionally outperform the original MLM's conditionals.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have shown promising capabilities but struggle under distribution shifts, where evaluation data differ from instruction tuning distributions. Although previous works have provided empirical evaluations, we argue that establishing a formal framework that can characterize and quantify the risk of MLLMs is necessary to ensure the safe and reliable application of MLLMs in the real world. By taking an information-theoretic perspective, we propose the first theoretical framework that enables the quantification of the maximum risk of MLLMs under distribution shifts. Central to our framework is the introduction of Effective Mutual Information (EMI), a principled metric that quantifies the relevance between input queries and model responses. We derive an upper bound for the EMI difference between in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) data, connecting it to visual and textual distributional discrepancies. Extensive experiments on real benchmark datasets, spanning 61 shift scenarios empirically validate our theoretical insights.

Galaxy clusters selected based on overdensities of galaxies in photometric surveys provide the largest cluster samples. Yet modeling the selection function of such samples is complicated by non-cluster members projected along the line of sight (projection effects) and the potential detection of unvirialized objects (contamination). We empirically constrain the magnitude of these effects by cross-matching galaxy clusters selected in the Dark Energy survey data with the \rdmpr, algorithm with significant detections in three South Pole Telescope surveys (SZ, pol-ECS, pol-500d). For matched clusters, we augment the \rdmpr,catalog by the SPT detection significance. For unmatched objects we use the SPT detection threshold as an upper limit on the SZe signature. Using a Bayesian population model applied to the collected multi-wavelength data, we explore various physically motivated models to describe the relationship between observed richness and halo mass. Our analysis reveals the limitations of a simple lognormal scatter model in describing the data. We rule out significant contamination by unvirialized objects at the high-richness end of the sample. While dedicated simulations offer a well-fitting calibration of projection effects, our findings suggest the presence of redshift-dependent trends that these simulations may not have captured. Our findings highlight that modeling the selection function of optically detected clusters remains a complicated challenge, requiring a combination of simulation and data-driven approaches.

Large language model (LLM)-based multi-agent systems are challenging to debug because failures often arise from long, branching interaction traces. The prevailing practice is to leverage LLMs for log-based failure localization, attributing errors to a specific agent and step. However, this paradigm has two key limitations: (i) log-only debugging lacks validation, producing untested hypotheses, and (ii) single-step or single-agent attribution is often ill-posed, as we find that multiple distinct interventions can independently repair the failed task. To address the first limitation, we introduce DoVer, an intervention-driven debugging framework, which augments hypothesis generation with active verification through targeted interventions (e.g., editing messages, altering plans). For the second limitation, rather than evaluating on attribution accuracy, we focus on measuring whether the system resolves the failure or makes quantifiable progress toward task success, reflecting a more outcome-oriented view of debugging. Within the Magnetic-One agent framework, on the datasets derived from GAIA and AssistantBench, DoVer flips 18-28% of failed trials into successes, achieves up to 16% milestone progress, and validates or refutes 30-60% of failure hypotheses. DoVer also performs effectively on a different dataset (GSMPlus) and agent framework (AG2), where it recovers 49% of failed trials. These results highlight intervention as a practical mechanism for improving reliability in agentic systems and open opportunities for more robust, scalable debugging methods for LLM-based multi-agent systems. Project website and code will be available at https://aka.ms/DoVer.

We present ModularSubsetSelection (MSS), a new algorithm for locally differentially private (LDP) frequency estimation. Given a universe of size k and n users, our varepsilon-LDP mechanism encodes each input via a Residue Number System (RNS) over ell pairwise-coprime moduli m_0, ldots, m_{ell-1}, and reports a randomly chosen index j in [ell] along with the perturbed residue using the statistically optimal SubsetSelection (SS) (Wang et al. 2016). This design reduces the user communication cost from Θbigl(ωlog_2(k/ω)bigr) bits required by standard SS (with ωapprox k/(e^varepsilon+1)) down to lceil log_2 ell rceil + lceil log_2 m_j rceil bits, where m_j < k. Server-side decoding runs in Θ(n + r k ell) time, where r is the number of LSMR (Fong and Saunders 2011) iterations. In practice, with well-conditioned moduli (i.e., constant r and ell = Θ(log k)), this becomes Θ(n + k log k). We prove that MSS achieves worst-case MSE within a constant factor of state-of-the-art protocols such as SS and ProjectiveGeometryResponse (PGR) (Feldman et al. 2022) while avoiding the algebraic prerequisites and dynamic-programming decoder required by PGR. Empirically, MSS matches the estimation accuracy of SS, PGR, and RAPPOR (Erlingsson, Pihur, and Korolova 2014) across realistic (k, varepsilon) settings, while offering faster decoding than PGR and shorter user messages than SS. Lastly, by sampling from multiple moduli and reporting only a single perturbed residue, MSS achieves the lowest reconstruction-attack success rate among all evaluated LDP protocols.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities across a range of scientific tasks including mathematics, physics, and chemistry. Despite their successes, the effectiveness of LLMs in handling complex statistical tasks remains systematically under-explored. To bridge this gap, we introduce StatQA, a new benchmark designed for statistical analysis tasks. StatQA comprises 11,623 examples tailored to evaluate LLMs' proficiency in specialized statistical tasks and their applicability assessment capabilities, particularly for hypothesis testing methods. We systematically experiment with representative LLMs using various prompting strategies and show that even state-of-the-art models such as GPT-4o achieve a best performance of only 64.83%, indicating significant room for improvement. Notably, while open-source LLMs (e.g. LLaMA-3) show limited capability, those fine-tuned ones exhibit marked improvements, outperforming all in-context learning-based methods (e.g. GPT-4o). Moreover, our comparative human experiments highlight a striking contrast in error types between LLMs and humans: LLMs primarily make applicability errors, whereas humans mostly make statistical task confusion errors. This divergence highlights distinct areas of proficiency and deficiency, suggesting that combining LLM and human expertise could lead to complementary strengths, inviting further investigation into their collaborative potential.

It is believed that in knowledge distillation (KD), the role of the teacher is to provide an estimate for the unknown Bayes conditional probability distribution (BCPD) to be used in the student training process. Conventionally, this estimate is obtained by training the teacher using maximum log-likelihood (MLL) method. To improve this estimate for KD, in this paper we introduce the concept of conditional mutual information (CMI) into the estimation of BCPD and propose a novel estimator called the maximum CMI (MCMI) method. Specifically, in MCMI estimation, both the log-likelihood and CMI of the teacher are simultaneously maximized when the teacher is trained. Through Eigen-CAM, it is further shown that maximizing the teacher's CMI value allows the teacher to capture more contextual information in an image cluster. Via conducting a thorough set of experiments, we show that by employing a teacher trained via MCMI estimation rather than one trained via MLL estimation in various state-of-the-art KD frameworks, the student's classification accuracy consistently increases, with the gain of up to 3.32\%. This suggests that the teacher's BCPD estimate provided by MCMI method is more accurate than that provided by MLL method. In addition, we show that such improvements in the student's accuracy are more drastic in zero-shot and few-shot settings. Notably, the student's accuracy increases with the gain of up to 5.72\% when 5\% of the training samples are available to the student (few-shot), and increases from 0\% to as high as 84\% for an omitted class (zero-shot). The code is available at https://github.com/iclr2024mcmi/ICLRMCMI.

Estimating piano dynamic from audio recordings is a fundamental challenge in computational music analysis. In this paper, we propose an efficient multi-task network that jointly predicts dynamic levels, change points, beats, and downbeats from a shared latent representation. These four targets form the metrical structure of dynamics in the music score. Inspired by recent vocal dynamic research, we use a multi-scale network as the backbone, which takes Bark-scale specific loudness as the input feature. Compared to log-Mel as input, this reduces model size from 14.7 M to 0.5 M, enabling long sequential input. We use a 60-second audio length in audio segmentation, which doubled the length of beat tracking commonly used. Evaluated on the public MazurkaBL dataset, our model achieves state-of-the-art results across all tasks. This work sets a new benchmark for piano dynamic estimation and delivers a powerful and compact tool, paving the way for large-scale, resource-efficient analysis of musical expression.

With the increasing numbers of publicly available models, there are probably pretrained, online models for most tasks users require. However, current model search methods are rudimentary, essentially a text-based search in the documentation, thus users cannot find the relevant models. This paper presents ProbeLog, a method for retrieving classification models that can recognize a target concept, such as "Dog", without access to model metadata or training data. Differently from previous probing methods, ProbeLog computes a descriptor for each output dimension (logit) of each model, by observing its responses on a fixed set of inputs (probes). Our method supports both logit-based retrieval ("find more logits like this") and zero-shot, text-based retrieval ("find all logits corresponding to dogs"). As probing-based representations require multiple costly feedforward passes through the model, we develop a method, based on collaborative filtering, that reduces the cost of encoding repositories by 3x. We demonstrate that ProbeLog achieves high retrieval accuracy, both in real-world and fine-grained search tasks and is scalable to full-size repositories.

Effective root cause analysis (RCA) is vital for swiftly restoring services, minimizing losses, and ensuring the smooth operation and management of complex systems. Previous data-driven RCA methods, particularly those employing causal discovery techniques, have primarily focused on constructing dependency or causal graphs for backtracking the root causes. However, these methods often fall short as they rely solely on data from a single modality, thereby resulting in suboptimal solutions. In this work, we propose Mulan, a unified multi-modal causal structure learning method for root cause localization. We leverage a log-tailored language model to facilitate log representation learning, converting log sequences into time-series data. To explore intricate relationships across different modalities, we propose a contrastive learning-based approach to extract modality-invariant and modality-specific representations within a shared latent space. Additionally, we introduce a novel key performance indicator-aware attention mechanism for assessing modality reliability and co-learning a final causal graph. Finally, we employ random walk with restart to simulate system fault propagation and identify potential root causes. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets validate the effectiveness of our proposed framework.

The proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) accessed via black-box APIs introduces a significant trust challenge: users pay for services based on advertised model capabilities (e.g., size, performance), but providers may covertly substitute the specified model with a cheaper, lower-quality alternative to reduce operational costs. This lack of transparency undermines fairness, erodes trust, and complicates reliable benchmarking. Detecting such substitutions is difficult due to the black-box nature, typically limiting interaction to input-output queries. This paper formalizes the problem of model substitution detection in LLM APIs. We systematically evaluate existing verification techniques, including output-based statistical tests, benchmark evaluations, and log probability analysis, under various realistic attack scenarios like model quantization, randomized substitution, and benchmark evasion. Our findings reveal the limitations of methods relying solely on text outputs, especially against subtle or adaptive attacks. While log probability analysis offers stronger guarantees when available, its accessibility is often limited. We conclude by discussing the potential of hardware-based solutions like Trusted Execution Environments (TEEs) as a pathway towards provable model integrity, highlighting the trade-offs between security, performance, and provider adoption. Code is available at https://github.com/sunblaze-ucb/llm-api-audit

Large language models (LLMs) are rapidly transforming social science research by enabling the automation of labor-intensive tasks like data annotation and text analysis. However, LLM outputs vary significantly depending on the implementation choices made by researchers (e.g., model selection, prompting strategy, or temperature settings). Such variation can introduce systematic biases and random errors, which propagate to downstream analyses and cause Type I, Type II, Type S, or Type M errors. We call this LLM hacking. We quantify the risk of LLM hacking by replicating 37 data annotation tasks from 21 published social science research studies with 18 different models. Analyzing 13 million LLM labels, we test 2,361 realistic hypotheses to measure how plausible researcher choices affect statistical conclusions. We find incorrect conclusions based on LLM-annotated data in approximately one in three hypotheses for state-of-the-art models, and in half the hypotheses for small language models. While our findings show that higher task performance and better general model capabilities reduce LLM hacking risk, even highly accurate models do not completely eliminate it. The risk of LLM hacking decreases as effect sizes increase, indicating the need for more rigorous verification of findings near significance thresholds. Our extensive analysis of LLM hacking mitigation techniques emphasizes the importance of human annotations in reducing false positive findings and improving model selection. Surprisingly, common regression estimator correction techniques are largely ineffective in reducing LLM hacking risk, as they heavily trade off Type I vs. Type II errors. Beyond accidental errors, we find that intentional LLM hacking is unacceptably simple. With few LLMs and just a handful of prompt paraphrases, anything can be presented as statistically significant.

We present a speaker-aware approach for simulating multi-speaker conversations that captures temporal consistency and realistic turn-taking dynamics. Prior work typically models aggregate conversational statistics under an independence assumption across speakers and turns. In contrast, our method uses speaker-specific deviation distributions enforcing intra-speaker temporal consistency, while a Markov chain governs turn-taking and a fixed room impulse response preserves spatial realism. We also unify pauses and overlaps into a single gap distribution, modeled with kernel density estimation for smooth continuity. Evaluation on Switchboard using intrinsic metrics - global gap statistics, correlations between consecutive gaps, copula-based higher-order dependencies, turn-taking entropy, and gap survival functions - shows that speaker-aware simulation better aligns with real conversational patterns than the baseline method, capturing fine-grained temporal dependencies and realistic speaker alternation, while revealing open challenges in modeling long-range conversational structure.

One of the main challenges developers face in the use of continuous integration (CI) and deployment pipelines is the occurrence of intermittent job failures, which result from unexpected non-deterministic issues (e.g., flaky tests or infrastructure problems) rather than regular code-related errors such as bugs. Prior studies developed machine learning (ML) models trained on large datasets of job logs to classify job failures as either intermittent or regular. As an alternative to costly manual labeling of large datasets, the state-of-the-art (SOTA) approach leveraged a heuristic based on non-deterministic job reruns. However, this method mislabels intermittent job failures as regular in contexts where rerunning suspicious job failures is not an explicit policy, and therefore limits the SOTA's performance in practice. In fact, our manual analysis of 2,125 job failures from 5 industrial and 1 open-source projects reveals that, on average, 32% of intermittent job failures are mislabeled as regular. To address these limitations, this paper introduces a novel approach to intermittent job failure detection using few-shot learning (FSL). Specifically, we fine-tune a small language model using a few number of manually labeled log examples to generate rich embeddings, which are then used to train an ML classifier. Our FSL-based approach achieves 70-88% F1-score with only 12 shots in all projects, outperforming the SOTA, which proved ineffective (34-52% F1-score) in 4 projects. Overall, this study underlines the importance of data quality over quantity and provides a more efficient and practical framework for the detection of intermittent job failures in organizations.

We introduce LogQuant, a groundbreaking 2-bit quantization technique for KV Cache in large language model (LLM) inference, delivering substantial memory savings while preserving superior performance. Previous methods either assume that later tokens are more important or attempt to predict important tokens based on earlier attention patterns. Both approaches, however, can result in performance bottlenecks or frequent mispredictions. LogQuant takes a different approach. By applying a log-based filtering mechanism, it selectively compresses the KV Cache across the entire context, achieving better performance with the same or even reduced memory footprint compared to existing methods. In benchmark tests, it enhances throughput by 25% and boosts batch size by 60% without increasing memory consumption. For challenging tasks such as Math and Code Completion, LogQuant improves accuracy by 40% to 200% at the same compression ratio, outperforming comparable techniques.LogQuant integrates effortlessly with popular inference frameworks like Python's transformers library. Implementation can be available in https://github.com/Concyclics/LogQuantKV.

Video-to-audio generation is essential for synthesizing realistic audio tracks that synchronize effectively with silent videos. Following the perspective of extracting essential signals from videos that can precisely control the mature text-to-audio generative diffusion models, this paper presents how to balance the representation of mel-spectrograms in terms of completeness and complexity through a new approach called Mel Quantization-Continuum Decomposition (Mel-QCD). We decompose the mel-spectrogram into three distinct types of signals, employing quantization or continuity to them, we can effectively predict them from video by a devised video-to-all (V2X) predictor. Then, the predicted signals are recomposed and fed into a ControlNet, along with a textual inversion design, to control the audio generation process. Our proposed Mel-QCD method demonstrates state-of-the-art performance across eight metrics, evaluating dimensions such as quality, synchronization, and semantic consistency. Our codes and demos will be released at Website{https://wjc2830.github.io/MelQCD/}.

Recent large language models such as Gemini-1.5, DeepSeek-V3, and Llama-4 increasingly adopt Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures, which offer strong efficiency-performance trade-offs by activating only a fraction of the model per token. Yet academic researchers still lack a fully open, end-to-end MoE platform for investigating scaling, routing, and expert behavior. We release FLAME-MoE, a completely open-source research suite composed of seven decoder-only models, ranging from 38M to 1.7B active parameters, whose architecture--64 experts with top-8 gating and 2 shared experts--closely reflects modern production LLMs. All training data pipelines, scripts, logs, and checkpoints are publicly available to enable reproducible experimentation. Across six evaluation tasks, FLAME-MoE improves average accuracy by up to 3.4 points over dense baselines trained with identical FLOPs. Leveraging full training trace transparency, we present initial analyses showing that (i) experts increasingly specialize on distinct token subsets, (ii) co-activation matrices remain sparse, reflecting diverse expert usage, and (iii) routing behavior stabilizes early in training. All code, training logs, and model checkpoints are available at https://github.com/cmu-flame/FLAME-MoE.

Efficiently managing compute resources for Large Language Model (LLM) inference remains challenging due to the inherently stochastic and variable lengths of autoregressive text generation. Accurately estimating response lengths in advance enables proactive resource allocation, yet existing approaches either bias text generation towards certain lengths or rely on assumptions that ignore model- and prompt-specific variability. We introduce CASTILLO, a dataset characterizing response length distributions across 13 widely-used open-source LLMs evaluated on seven distinct instruction-following corpora. For each langleprompt, modelrangle sample pair, we generate 10 independent completions using fixed decoding hyper-parameters, record the token length of each response, and publish summary statistics (mean, std-dev, percentiles), along with the shortest and longest completions, and the exact generation settings. Our analysis reveals significant inter- and intra-model variability in response lengths (even under identical generation settings), as well as model-specific behaviors and occurrences of partial text degeneration in only subsets of responses. CASTILLO enables the development of predictive models for proactive scheduling and provides a systematic framework for analyzing model-specific generation behaviors. We publicly release the dataset and code to foster research at the intersection of generative language modeling and systems.

We present LEMMING, a modular log-linear model that jointly models lemmatization and tagging and supports the integration of arbitrary global features. It is trainable on corpora annotated with gold standard tags and lemmata and does not rely on morphological dictionaries or analyzers. LEMMING sets the new state of the art in token-based statistical lemmatization on six languages; e.g., for Czech lemmatization, we reduce the error by 60%, from 4.05 to 1.58. We also give empirical evidence that jointly modeling morphological tags and lemmata is mutually beneficial.

We present a novel dataset aimed at advancing danger analysis and assessment by addressing the challenge of quantifying danger in video content and identifying how human-like a Large Language Model (LLM) evaluator is for the same. This is achieved by compiling a collection of 100 YouTube videos featuring various events. Each video is annotated by human participants who provided danger ratings on a scale from 0 (no danger to humans) to 10 (life-threatening), with precise timestamps indicating moments of heightened danger. Additionally, we leverage LLMs to independently assess the danger levels in these videos using video summaries. We introduce Mean Squared Error (MSE) scores for multimodal meta-evaluation of the alignment between human and LLM danger assessments. Our dataset not only contributes a new resource for danger assessment in video content but also demonstrates the potential of LLMs in achieving human-like evaluations.

Large language models (LLMs) have been increasingly used in time series analysis. However, the potential of multimodal LLMs (MLLMs), particularly vision-language models, for time series remains largely under-explored. One natural way for humans to detect time series anomalies is through visualization and textual description. Motivated by this, we raise a critical and practical research question: Can multimodal LLMs perform time series anomaly detection? To answer this, we propose VisualTimeAnomaly benchmark to evaluate MLLMs in time series anomaly detection (TSAD). Our approach transforms time series numerical data into the image format and feed these images into various MLLMs, including proprietary models (GPT-4o and Gemini-1.5) and open-source models (LLaVA-NeXT and Qwen2-VL), each with one larger and one smaller variant. In total, VisualTimeAnomaly contains 12.4k time series images spanning 3 scenarios and 3 anomaly granularities with 9 anomaly types across 8 MLLMs. Starting with the univariate case (point- and range-wise anomalies), we extend our evaluation to more practical scenarios, including multivariate and irregular time series scenarios, and variate-wise anomalies. Our study reveals several key insights: 1) MLLMs detect range- and variate-wise anomalies more effectively than point-wise anomalies. 2) MLLMs are highly robust to irregular time series, even with 25% of the data missing. 3) Open-source MLLMs perform comparably to proprietary models in TSAD. While open-source MLLMs excel on univariate time series, proprietary MLLMs demonstrate superior effectiveness on multivariate time series. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to comprehensively investigate MLLMs for TSAD, particularly for multivariate and irregular time series scenarios. We release our dataset and code at https://github.com/mllm-ts/VisualTimeAnomaly to support future research.

This paper thoroughly analyses the effect of different input representations on polyphonic multi-instrument music transcription. We use our own GPU based spectrogram extraction tool, nnAudio, to investigate the influence of using a linear-frequency spectrogram, log-frequency spectrogram, Mel spectrogram, and constant-Q transform (CQT). Our results show that a 8.33% increase in transcription accuracy and a 9.39% reduction in error can be obtained by choosing the appropriate input representation (log-frequency spectrogram with STFT window length 4,096 and 2,048 frequency bins in the spectrogram) without changing the neural network design (single layer fully connected). Our experiments also show that Mel spectrogram is a compact representation for which we can reduce the number of frequency bins to only 512 while still keeping a relatively high music transcription accuracy.

Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) is the standard approach for post-training large language models (LLMs), yet it often shows limited generalization. We trace this limitation to its default training objective: negative log likelihood (NLL). While NLL is classically optimal when training from scratch, post-training operates in a different paradigm and could violate its optimality assumptions, where models already encode task-relevant priors and supervision can be long and noisy. To this end, we study a general family of probability-based objectives and characterize their effectiveness under different conditions. Through comprehensive experiments and extensive ablation studies across 7 model backbones, 14 benchmarks, and 3 domains, we uncover a critical dimension that governs objective behavior: the model-capability continuum. Near the model-strong end, prior-leaning objectives that downweight low-probability tokens (e.g., -p, -p^{10}, thresholded variants) consistently outperform NLL; toward the model-weak end, NLL dominates; in between, no single objective prevails. Our theoretical analysis further elucidates how objectives trade places across the continuum, providing a principled foundation for adapting objectives to model capability. Our code is available at https://github.com/GaotangLi/Beyond-Log-Likelihood.

Large Language Models (LLMs) based on the pre-trained fine-tuning paradigm have become pivotal in solving natural language processing tasks, consistently achieving state-of-the-art performance. Nevertheless, the theoretical understanding of how model complexity influences fine-tuning performance remains challenging and has not been well explored yet. In this paper, we focus on autoregressive LLMs and propose to employ Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to model them. Based on the HMM modeling, we investigate the relationship between model complexity and the generalization capability in downstream tasks. Specifically, we consider a popular tuning paradigm for downstream tasks, head tuning, where all pre-trained parameters are frozen and only individual heads are trained atop pre-trained LLMs. Our theoretical analysis reveals that the risk initially increases and then decreases with rising model complexity, showcasing a "double descent" phenomenon. In this case, the initial "descent" is degenerate, signifying that the "sweet spot" where bias and variance are balanced occurs when the model size is zero. Obtaining the presented in this study conclusion confronts several challenges, primarily revolving around effectively modeling autoregressive LLMs and downstream tasks, as well as conducting a comprehensive risk analysis for multivariate regression. Our research is substantiated by experiments conducted on data generated from HMMs, which provided empirical support and alignment with our theoretical insights.

A promising class of generative models maps points from a simple distribution to a complex distribution through an invertible neural network. Likelihood-based training of these models requires restricting their architectures to allow cheap computation of Jacobian determinants. Alternatively, the Jacobian trace can be used if the transformation is specified by an ordinary differential equation. In this paper, we use Hutchinson's trace estimator to give a scalable unbiased estimate of the log-density. The result is a continuous-time invertible generative model with unbiased density estimation and one-pass sampling, while allowing unrestricted neural network architectures. We demonstrate our approach on high-dimensional density estimation, image generation, and variational inference, achieving the state-of-the-art among exact likelihood methods with efficient sampling.

We present the Mellum models family, open-weight code completion models designed for interactive use in JetBrains IDEs. Mellums have 4B parameters, adopt a Llama-style architecture, and are pre-trained on ~4T tokens of permissively licensed, multi-language code. Our studies show that (i) careful data curation and staged training significantly improve the model's quality, (ii) editor-critical capabilities such as context packing are necessary for high-quality suggestions, and (iii) a compact, task-focused model can meet the cost and latency constraints of interactive completion. In the paper, we describe an end-to-end industrial pipeline for producing contextualized in-editor completion: disciplined data governance, multi-stage training that includes fill-in-the-middle and project context via supervised fine-tuning, and alignment via direct preference optimization using feedback from real-world scenarios. Our quality evaluations include both large-scale offline benchmarks and online telemetry from production deployments in JetBrains IDEs. Mellums are released under the Apache-2.0 license on HuggingFace, with a public model card providing a reproducible reference for practitioners. Our experience offers a pragmatic blueprint for taking a focused, open model from a research prototype to at scale production for hundreds of thousands of users.

Scaling laws in language modeling traditionally quantify training loss as a function of dataset size and model parameters, providing compute-optimal estimates but often neglecting the impact of data quality on model generalization. In this paper, we extend the conventional understanding of scaling law by offering a microscopic view of data quality within the original formulation -- effective training tokens -- which we posit to be a critical determinant of performance for parameter-constrained language models. Specifically, we formulate the proposed term of effective training tokens to be a combination of two readily-computed indicators of text: (i) text diversity and (ii) syntheticity as measured by a teacher model. We pretrained over 200 models of 25M to 1.5B parameters on a diverse set of sampled, synthetic data, and estimated the constants that relate text quality, model size, training tokens, and eight reasoning task accuracy scores. We demonstrated the estimated constants yield +0.83 Pearson correlation with true accuracies, and analyzed it in scenarios involving widely-used data techniques such as data sampling and synthesis which aim to improve data quality.

Large Language Models (LLMs) changed the way we design and interact with software systems. Their ability to process and extract information from text has drastically improved productivity in a number of routine tasks. Developers that want to include these models in their software stack, however, face a dreadful challenge: debugging LLMs' inconsistent behavior across minor variations of the prompt. We therefore introduce two metrics for classification tasks, namely sensitivity and consistency, which are complementary to task performance. First, sensitivity measures changes of predictions across rephrasings of the prompt, and does not require access to ground truth labels. Instead, consistency measures how predictions vary across rephrasings for elements of the same class. We perform an empirical comparison of these metrics on text classification tasks, using them as guideline for understanding failure modes of the LLM. Our hope is that sensitivity and consistency will be helpful to guide prompt engineering and obtain LLMs that balance robustness with performance.

Large language models (LLMs) have shown impressive capabilities in adapting to various tasks when provided with task-specific instructions. However, LLMs using standard decoding strategies often struggle with deviations from the inputs. Intuitively, compliant LLM outputs should reflect the information present in the input, which can be measured by point-wise mutual information (PMI) scores. Therefore, we propose Diver, a novel approach that enhances LLM Decoding through span-level PMI verification. During inference, Diver first identifies divergence steps that may lead to multiple candidate spans. Subsequently, it calculates the PMI scores by assessing the log-likelihood gains of the input if the candidate spans are generated. Finally, the optimal span is selected based on the PMI re-ranked output distributions. We evaluate our method across various downstream tasks, and empirical results demonstrate that Diver significantly outperforms existing decoding methods in both performance and versatility.

The attention mechanism in Transformers is an important primitive for accurate and scalable sequence modeling. Its quadratic-compute and linear-memory complexity however remain significant bottlenecks. Linear attention and state-space models enable linear-time, constant-memory sequence modeling and can moreover be trained efficiently through matmul-rich parallelization across sequence length. However, at their core these models are still RNNs, and thus their use of a fixed-size hidden state to model the context is a fundamental limitation. This paper develops log-linear attention, an attention mechanism that balances linear attention's efficiency and the expressiveness of softmax attention. Log-linear attention replaces the fixed-size hidden state with a logarithmically growing set of hidden states. We show that with a particular growth function, log-linear attention admits a similarly matmul-rich parallel form whose compute cost is log-linear in sequence length. Log-linear attention is a general framework and can be applied on top of existing linear attention variants. As case studies, we instantiate log-linear variants of two recent architectures -- Mamba-2 and Gated DeltaNet -- and find they perform well compared to their linear-time variants.

The rapid advancements in computing dramatically increase the scale and cost of training Large Language Models (LLMs). Accurately predicting downstream task performance prior to model training is crucial for efficient resource allocation, yet remains challenging due to two primary constraints: (1) the "emergence phenomenon", wherein downstream performance metrics become meaningful only after extensive training, which limits the ability to use smaller models for prediction; (2) Uneven task difficulty distributions and the absence of consistent scaling laws, resulting in substantial metric variability. Existing performance prediction methods suffer from limited accuracy and reliability, thereby impeding the assessment of potential LLM capabilities. To address these challenges, we propose a Clustering-On-Difficulty (COD) downstream performance prediction framework. COD first constructs a predictable support subset by clustering tasks based on difficulty features, strategically excluding non-emergent and non-scalable clusters. The scores on the selected subset serve as effective intermediate predictors of downstream performance on the full evaluation set. With theoretical support, we derive a mapping function that transforms performance metrics from the predictable subset to the full evaluation set, thereby ensuring accurate extrapolation of LLM downstream performance. The proposed method has been applied to predict performance scaling for a 70B LLM, providing actionable insights for training resource allocation and assisting in monitoring the training process. Notably, COD achieves remarkable predictive accuracy on the 70B LLM by leveraging an ensemble of small models, demonstrating an absolute mean deviation of 1.36% across eight important LLM evaluation benchmarks.

Language models (LMs) are becoming the foundation for almost all major language technologies, but their capabilities, limitations, and risks are not well understood. We present Holistic Evaluation of Language Models (HELM) to improve the transparency of language models. First, we taxonomize the vast space of potential scenarios (i.e. use cases) and metrics (i.e. desiderata) that are of interest for LMs. Then we select a broad subset based on coverage and feasibility, noting what's missing or underrepresented (e.g. question answering for neglected English dialects, metrics for trustworthiness). Second, we adopt a multi-metric approach: We measure 7 metrics (accuracy, calibration, robustness, fairness, bias, toxicity, and efficiency) for each of 16 core scenarios when possible (87.5% of the time). This ensures metrics beyond accuracy don't fall to the wayside, and that trade-offs are clearly exposed. We also perform 7 targeted evaluations, based on 26 targeted scenarios, to analyze specific aspects (e.g. reasoning, disinformation). Third, we conduct a large-scale evaluation of 30 prominent language models (spanning open, limited-access, and closed models) on all 42 scenarios, 21 of which were not previously used in mainstream LM evaluation. Prior to HELM, models on average were evaluated on just 17.9% of the core HELM scenarios, with some prominent models not sharing a single scenario in common. We improve this to 96.0%: now all 30 models have been densely benchmarked on the same core scenarios and metrics under standardized conditions. Our evaluation surfaces 25 top-level findings. For full transparency, we release all raw model prompts and completions publicly for further analysis, as well as a general modular toolkit. We intend for HELM to be a living benchmark for the community, continuously updated with new scenarios, metrics, and models.

Uncovering early-stage metrics that reflect final model performance is one core principle for large-scale pretraining. The existing scaling law demonstrates the power-law correlation between pretraining loss and training flops, which serves as an important indicator of the current training state for large language models. However, this principle only focuses on the model's compression properties on the training data, resulting in an inconsistency with the ability improvements on the downstream tasks. Some follow-up works attempted to extend the scaling-law to more complex metrics (such as hyperparameters), but still lacked a comprehensive analysis of the dynamic differences among various capabilities during pretraining. To address the aforementioned limitations, this paper undertakes a comprehensive comparison of model capabilities at various pretraining intermediate checkpoints. Through this analysis, we confirm that specific downstream metrics exhibit similar training dynamics across models of different sizes, up to 67 billion parameters. In addition to our core findings, we've reproduced Amber and OpenLLaMA, releasing their intermediate checkpoints. This initiative offers valuable resources to the research community and facilitates the verification and exploration of LLM pretraining by open-source researchers. Besides, we provide empirical summaries, including performance comparisons of different models and capabilities, and tuition of key metrics for different training phases. Based on these findings, we provide a more user-friendly strategy for evaluating the optimization state, offering guidance for establishing a stable pretraining process.

Historically, most speech models in machine-learning have used the mel-spectrogram as a speech representation. Recently, discrete audio tokens produced by neural audio codecs have become a popular alternate speech representation for speech synthesis tasks such as text-to-speech (TTS). However, the data distribution produced by such codecs is too complex for some TTS models to predict, hence requiring large autoregressive models to get reasonable quality. Typical audio codecs compress and reconstruct the time-domain audio signal. We propose a spectral codec which compresses the mel-spectrogram and reconstructs the time-domain audio signal. A study of objective audio quality metrics suggests that our spectral codec has comparable perceptual quality to equivalent audio codecs. Furthermore, non-autoregressive TTS models trained with the proposed spectral codec generate audio with significantly higher quality than when trained with mel-spectrograms or audio codecs.

Researchers build scaling laws to forecast the training performance of expensive large-scale runs with larger model size N and data size D. These laws assume that other training hyperparameters are optimally chosen, which can require significant effort and, in some cases, be impossible due to external hardware constraints. To improve predictability across a broader set of hyperparameters and enable simpler tuning at scale, we propose learning a Configuration-to-Performance Scaling Law (CPL): a mapping from the full training configuration to training performance. Because no simple functional form can express this mapping, we parameterize it with a large language model (LLM), and fit it with diverse open-source pretraining logs across multiple sources, yielding a Neural Configuration-to-Performance Scaling Law (NCPL). NCPL accurately predicts how training configurations influence the final pretraining loss, achieving 20-40% lower prediction error than the configuration-agnostic Chinchilla law and generalizing to runs using up to 10 x more compute than any run in the training set. It further supports joint tuning of multiple hyperparameters with performance comparable to hyperparameter scaling law baselines. Finally, NCPL naturally and effectively extends to richer prediction targets such as loss-curve prediction.

For a parametric model of distributions, the closest distribution in the model to the true distribution located outside the model is considered. Measuring the closeness between two distributions with the Kullback-Leibler (K-L) divergence, the closest distribution is called the "information projection." The estimation risk of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is defined as the expectation of K-L divergence between the information projection and the predictive distribution with plugged-in MLE. Here, the asymptotic expansion of the risk is derived up to n^{-2}-order, and the sufficient condition on the risk for the Bayes error rate between the true distribution and the information projection to be lower than a specified value is investigated. Combining these results, the "p-n criterion" is proposed, which determines whether the MLE is sufficiently close to the information projection for the given model and sample. In particular, the criterion for an exponential family model is relatively simple and can be used for a complex model with no explicit form of normalizing constant. This criterion can constitute a solution to the sample size or model acceptance problem. Use of the p-n criteria is demonstrated for two practical datasets. The relationship between the results and information criteria is also studied.

Cybersecurity honeypots are deception tools for engaging attackers and gather intelligence, but traditional low or medium-interaction honeypots often rely on static, pre-scripted interactions that can be easily identified by skilled adversaries. This Report presents LLMHoney, an SSH honeypot that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) to generate realistic, dynamic command outputs in real time. LLMHoney integrates a dictionary-based virtual file system to handle common commands with low latency while using LLMs for novel inputs, achieving a balance between authenticity and performance. We implemented LLMHoney using open-source LLMs and evaluated it on a testbed with 138 representative Linux commands. We report comprehensive metrics including accuracy (exact-match, Cosine Similarity, Jaro-Winkler Similarity, Levenshtein Similarity and BLEU score), response latency and memory overhead. We evaluate LLMHoney using multiple LLM backends ranging from 0.36B to 3.8B parameters, including both open-source models and a proprietary model(Gemini). Our experiments compare 13 different LLM variants; results show that Gemini-2.0 and moderately-sized models Qwen2.5:1.5B and Phi3:3.8B provide the most reliable and accurate responses, with mean latencies around 3 seconds, whereas smaller models often produce incorrect or out-of-character outputs. We also discuss how LLM integration improves honeypot realism and adaptability compared to traditional honeypots, as well as challenges such as occasional hallucinated outputs and increased resource usage. Our findings demonstrate that LLM-driven honeypots are a promising approach to enhance attacker engagement and collect richer threat intelligence.

This study introduces a line list for the abundance analysis of F and G type stars across the 4080-9675 A wavelength range. A systematic search employing lower excitation potentials, accurate log gf values, and an updated multiplet table led to the identification of 592 lines across 33 species (25 elements), including C, O, Mg (ionized), Al, P, S, Cu, Zr (neutral), and La. To determine the uncertainties in log gf values, we assessed solar abundance using a very high-resolution (R=1000000) disk-integrated solar spectrum. These lines were confirmed to be blend-free in the solar spectrum. The line list was further validated by analyzing the metal-poor star HD 218209 (G6V), which is notable for its well-documented and reliable abundance in literature. The abundances were obtained using the equivalent width (EW) method and further refined by applying the spectrum synthesis method. A comparative analysis with the Gaia ESO line list v.6, provided by the Gaia ESO collaboration, revealed additional neutral and ionized Fe lines. This extensively refined line list will facilitate precise stellar parameter determinations and accurate abundance analyses of spectra within the PolarBASE spectral library.

Evaluation benchmarks are the cornerstone of measuring capabilities of large language models (LLMs), as well as driving progress in said capabilities. Originally designed to make claims about capabilities (or lack thereof) in fully pretrained models, evaluation benchmarks are now also extensively used to decide between various training choices. Despite this widespread usage, we rarely quantify the variance in our evaluation benchmarks, which dictates whether differences in performance are meaningful. Here, we define and measure a range of metrics geared towards measuring variance in evaluation benchmarks, including seed variance across initialisations, and monotonicity during training. By studying a large number of models -- both openly available and pretrained from scratch -- we provide empirical estimates for a variety of variance metrics, with considerations and recommendations for practitioners. We also evaluate the utility and tradeoffs of continuous versus discrete performance measures and explore options for better understanding and reducing this variance. We find that simple changes, such as framing choice tasks (like MMLU) as completion tasks, can often reduce variance for smaller scale (sim7B) models, while more involved methods inspired from human testing literature (such as item analysis and item response theory) struggle to meaningfully reduce variance. Overall, our work provides insights into variance in evaluation benchmarks, suggests LM-specific techniques to reduce variance, and more generally encourages practitioners to carefully factor in variance when comparing models.

The escalating demand for efficient decoding in large language models (LLMs) is particularly critical for reasoning-intensive architectures like OpenAI-o3 and DeepSeek-R1, which depend on extended chain-of-thought reasoning. This study investigates speculative decoding techniques through dense LLM architectures to establish foundational insights for accelerating reasoning tasks. While speculative decoding methods leveraging parallel draft-verification cycles have emerged as promising acceleration techniques, the scaling laws governing decoding efficiency remain under-explored compared to conventional backbone LLMs developed through Pretraining->SFT->RLHF training paradigms. In this work, we discover Log-linear Scaling Laws (Theorem 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3) governing draft model acceptance rate (or decoding speed) across three dimensions: pretraining token volume, draft model capacity, and decoding batch size. Building on these laws, we achieve Scylla, which coordinates multi-dimensional scaling for popular LLMs (Llama2/3, Qwen2.5). Empirical validation shows Scylla achieves 1.5-2.2 higher acceptance rate than EAGLE2 and 0.3 higher than EAGLE3 at temperature T = 0, with peak performance gains on summarization and QA tasks (Figure 2). Industrial inference engine deployments demonstrate 2X decoding throughput improvements over EAGLE2 (Table 5), validating the transformative potential of systematic scaling for efficient LLM inference. Code will be released later.

Suppose Alice trains an open-weight language model and Bob uses a blackbox derivative of Alice's model to produce text. Can Alice prove that Bob is using her model, either by querying Bob's derivative model (query setting) or from the text alone (observational setting)? We formulate this question as an independence testing problem--in which the null hypothesis is that Bob's model or text is independent of Alice's randomized training run--and investigate it through the lens of palimpsestic memorization in language models: models are more likely to memorize data seen later in training, so we can test whether Bob is using Alice's model using test statistics that capture correlation between Bob's model or text and the ordering of training examples in Alice's training run. If Alice has randomly shuffled her training data, then any significant correlation amounts to exactly quantifiable statistical evidence against the null hypothesis, regardless of the composition of Alice's training data. In the query setting, we directly estimate (via prompting) the likelihood Bob's model gives to Alice's training examples and order; we correlate the likelihoods of over 40 fine-tunes of various Pythia and OLMo base models ranging from 1B to 12B parameters with the base model's training data order, achieving a p-value on the order of at most 1e-8 in all but six cases. In the observational setting, we try two approaches based on estimating 1) the likelihood of Bob's text overlapping with spans of Alice's training examples and 2) the likelihood of Bob's text with respect to different versions of Alice's model we obtain by repeating the last phase (e.g., 1%) of her training run on reshuffled data. The second approach can reliably distinguish Bob's text from as little as a few hundred tokens; the first does not involve any retraining but requires many more tokens (several hundred thousand) to achieve high power.

End-to-end neural network based approaches to audio modelling are generally outperformed by models trained on high-level data representations. In this paper we present preliminary work that shows the feasibility of training the first layers of a deep convolutional neural network (CNN) model to learn the commonly-used log-scaled mel-spectrogram transformation. Secondly, we demonstrate that upon initializing the first layers of an end-to-end CNN classifier with the learned transformation, convergence and performance on the ESC-50 environmental sound classification dataset are similar to a CNN-based model trained on the highly pre-processed log-scaled mel-spectrogram features.

In recent text-to-speech synthesis and voice conversion systems, a mel-spectrogram is commonly applied as an intermediate representation, and the necessity for a mel-spectrogram vocoder is increasing. A mel-spectrogram vocoder must solve three inverse problems: recovery of the original-scale magnitude spectrogram, phase reconstruction, and frequency-to-time conversion. A typical convolutional mel-spectrogram vocoder solves these problems jointly and implicitly using a convolutional neural network, including temporal upsampling layers, when directly calculating a raw waveform. Such an approach allows skipping redundant processes during waveform synthesis (e.g., the direct reconstruction of high-dimensional original-scale spectrograms). By contrast, the approach solves all problems in a black box and cannot effectively employ the time-frequency structures existing in a mel-spectrogram. We thus propose iSTFTNet, which replaces some output-side layers of the mel-spectrogram vocoder with the inverse short-time Fourier transform (iSTFT) after sufficiently reducing the frequency dimension using upsampling layers, reducing the computational cost from black-box modeling and avoiding redundant estimations of high-dimensional spectrograms. During our experiments, we applied our ideas to three HiFi-GAN variants and made the models faster and more lightweight with a reasonable speech quality. Audio samples are available at https://www.kecl.ntt.co.jp/people/kaneko.takuhiro/projects/istftnet/.

Large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT have exhibited remarkable performance in generating human-like texts. However, machine-generated texts (MGTs) may carry critical risks, such as plagiarism issues, misleading information, or hallucination issues. Therefore, it is very urgent and important to detect MGTs in many situations. Unfortunately, it is challenging to distinguish MGTs and human-written texts because the distributional discrepancy between them is often very subtle due to the remarkable performance of LLMs. In this paper, we seek to exploit maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) to address this issue in the sense that MMD can well identify distributional discrepancies. However, directly training a detector with MMD using diverse MGTs will incur a significantly increased variance of MMD since MGTs may contain multiple text populations due to various LLMs. This will severely impair MMD's ability to measure the difference between two samples. To tackle this, we propose a novel multi-population aware optimization method for MMD called MMD-MP, which can avoid variance increases and thus improve the stability to measure the distributional discrepancy. Relying on MMD-MP, we develop two methods for paragraph-based and sentence-based detection, respectively. Extensive experiments on various LLMs, \eg, GPT2 and ChatGPT, show superior detection performance of our MMD-MP. The source code is available at https://github.com/ZSHsh98/MMD-MP.

Learning unnormalized statistical models (e.g., energy-based models) is computationally challenging due to the complexity of handling the partition function. To eschew this complexity, noise-contrastive estimation~(NCE) has been proposed by formulating the objective as the logistic loss of the real data and the artificial noise. However, as found in previous works, NCE may perform poorly in many tasks due to its flat loss landscape and slow convergence. In this paper, we study it a direct approach for optimizing the negative log-likelihood of unnormalized models from the perspective of compositional optimization. To tackle the partition function, a noise distribution is introduced such that the log partition function can be written as a compositional function whose inner function can be estimated with stochastic samples. Hence, the objective can be optimized by stochastic compositional optimization algorithms. Despite being a simple method, we demonstrate that it is more favorable than NCE by (1) establishing a fast convergence rate and quantifying its dependence on the noise distribution through the variance of stochastic estimators; (2) developing better results for one-dimensional Gaussian mean estimation by showing our objective has a much favorable loss landscape and hence our method enjoys faster convergence; (3) demonstrating better performance on multiple applications, including density estimation, out-of-distribution detection, and real image generation.

Auto-regressive large language models (LLMs) have yielded impressive performance in many real-world tasks. However, the new paradigm of these LLMs also exposes novel threats. In this paper, we explore their vulnerability to inference cost attacks, where a malicious user crafts Engorgio prompts to intentionally increase the computation cost and latency of the inference process. We design Engorgio, a novel methodology, to efficiently generate adversarial Engorgio prompts to affect the target LLM's service availability. Engorgio has the following two technical contributions. (1) We employ a parameterized distribution to track LLMs' prediction trajectory. (2) Targeting the auto-regressive nature of LLMs' inference process, we propose novel loss functions to stably suppress the appearance of the <EOS> token, whose occurrence will interrupt the LLM's generation process. We conduct extensive experiments on 13 open-sourced LLMs with parameters ranging from 125M to 30B. The results show that Engorgio prompts can successfully induce LLMs to generate abnormally long outputs (i.e., roughly 2-13times longer to reach 90%+ of the output length limit) in a white-box scenario and our real-world experiment demonstrates Engergio's threat to LLM service with limited computing resources. The code is accessible at https://github.com/jianshuod/Engorgio-prompt.