id
stringlengths 8
8
| question
stringlengths 17
200
| type
stringclasses 3
values | resolution
stringclasses 216
values | resolution_time
timestamp[s]date 2016-03-01 00:00:00
2025-02-01 00:00:00
| created_time
timestamp[s]date 2015-10-26 00:00:00
2025-01-08 00:00:00
| confidence
float64 0.05
0.87
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
f3014acb
|
Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-03-13T00:00:00 | 2022-09-05T00:00:00 | 0.3035 |
df4c0e29
|
When will Liz Truss no longer hold the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2022-10-25
| 2022-10-25T00:00:00 | 2022-09-06T00:00:00 | 0.5019 |
66b51629
|
Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-17T00:00:00 | 2022-09-21T00:00:00 | 0.7101 |
ce4524c8
|
Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-09-21T00:00:00 | 0.5577 |
3cb3c7dd
|
Will Catherine Cortez Masto be re-elected in the 2022 US Senate election in Nevada?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-11-23T00:00:00 | 2022-09-23T00:00:00 | 0.478 |
cb89d4a7
|
Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-09-23T00:00:00 | 0.7282 |
efabc53a
|
Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-09-30T00:00:00 | 0.7241 |
a32d7396
|
Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-05T00:00:00 | 2022-10-01T00:00:00 | 0.447 |
7fb057c5
|
Will there be a large-scale radioactive contamination of a German territory by 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-10-05T00:00:00 | 0.7284 |
7d2ecae6
|
Will the US supply Ukraine with an Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS)?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2023-10-17
| 2023-10-17T00:00:00 | 2022-10-20T00:00:00 | 0.482 |
cd639bd7
|
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-12-31T00:00:00 | 2022-10-20T00:00:00 | 0.7257 |
facda188
|
Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-05-01T00:00:00 | 2022-10-20T00:00:00 | 0.6613 |
b7509b1f
|
When will US or NATO forces conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions?
|
timeframe prediction
|
above_upper_bound
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-10-21T00:00:00 | 0.7984 |
30b443f2
|
Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-04T00:00:00 | 2022-10-24T00:00:00 | 0.7205 |
d2f36384
|
Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-12-31T00:00:00 | 2022-11-02T00:00:00 | 0.5732 |
74e1d8b6
|
Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-11-04T00:00:00 | 0.5887 |
1868e0c7
|
Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-11-10T00:00:00 | 0.6958 |
9acf569a
|
Before 2023, will FTX.US default or suspend payment to at least one FTX.US user?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-11-13T00:00:00 | 2022-11-10T00:00:00 | 0.5118 |
8efb0156
|
Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-12-31T00:00:00 | 2022-11-13T00:00:00 | 0.6382 |
7bb1ccb8
|
[Short fuse]: Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the Przewodów strike before December?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-11-30T00:00:00 | 2022-11-15T00:00:00 | 0.7275 |
6947f81b
|
Will Ukraine acknowledge having fired the missile that killed two people in Przewodów, Poland, before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-11-16T00:00:00 | 0.6233 |
bd4068b3
|
What will the price of ETH be on Dec 2, 2022 at noon EST?
|
quantity estimation
|
1278
| 2022-12-02T00:00:00 | 2022-11-18T00:00:00 | 0.5487 |
8ddf309c
|
When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2023-11-18
| 2023-11-18T00:00:00 | 2022-11-24T00:00:00 | 0.5312 |
6439a1db
|
Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2025-01-21T00:00:00 | 2022-12-02T00:00:00 | 0.6491 |
b231fd17
|
On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-12-09T00:00:00 | 0.7069 |
5636e7e1
|
In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-12-09T00:00:00 | 0.6295 |
a8b00fc4
|
In 2023 will any new country join NATO?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-04-04T00:00:00 | 2022-12-10T00:00:00 | 0.5556 |
11603b64
|
In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-12-10T00:00:00 | 0.6961 |
860a91ca
|
On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-12-11T00:00:00 | 0.6741 |
19512612
|
In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-12-11T00:00:00 | 0.5642 |
6b0180d3
|
On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-12-11T00:00:00 | 0.6233 |
c4fba64e
|
In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-06-29T00:00:00 | 2022-12-14T00:00:00 | 0.5767 |
4a1f6fa9
|
In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-03-05T00:00:00 | 2022-12-14T00:00:00 | 0.7054 |
eb6bb17d
|
Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-02-01T00:00:00 | 2022-12-14T00:00:00 | 0.6308 |
bf6e516b
|
Will the US ban TikTok before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-12-15T00:00:00 | 0.6847 |
1324d696
|
In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-08-25T00:00:00 | 2022-12-20T00:00:00 | 0.539 |
99d40975
|
When will Elon Musk be succeeded as CEO of Twitter?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2023-06-05
| 2023-06-06T00:00:00 | 2022-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.5152 |
2566be3f
|
On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.6855 |
2da5aa23
|
On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-12-31T00:00:00 | 2022-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.7042 |
ccc7872c
|
On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.7014 |
5ee68c73
|
On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.698 |
0eb1d4f2
|
In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-03-30T00:00:00 | 2022-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.5151 |
5db6fbb8
|
In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.7078 |
c6bb58b8
|
On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.6997 |
ebcdd0f6
|
Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.5922 |
d10f1b62
|
Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.4324 |
78b43ffd
|
Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-12-29T00:00:00 | 2022-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.6628 |
0599ee5f
|
In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-12-29T00:00:00 | 2022-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.5899 |
41b2cb68
|
Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.6664 |
9e100f6f
|
Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.4658 |
dbde9c2f
|
On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.6524 |
aa516e67
|
In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.3664 |
3c4fd262
|
In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander's bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen's satisfaction?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-14T00:00:00 | 2022-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.2935 |
e79fe227
|
In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.5648 |
d39211f3
|
In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.6236 |
b9d3325b
|
On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-03-05T00:00:00 | 2022-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.6946 |
606f59a6
|
In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-03-05T00:00:00 | 2022-12-21T00:00:00 | 0.5764 |
71932022
|
Will OpenAI offer a ChatGPT subscription for less than $25/month before July 1, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-02-10T00:00:00 | 2022-12-23T00:00:00 | 0.5059 |
b0980940
|
Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-02T00:00:00 | 2022-12-23T00:00:00 | 0.4944 |
f57b631e
|
Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-04-01T00:00:00 | 2022-12-23T00:00:00 | 0.5505 |
43fad6e0
|
Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-03-21T00:00:00 | 2022-12-23T00:00:00 | 0.5148 |
28cd196e
|
When will GPT-4 be announced?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2023-03-14
| 2023-03-14T00:00:00 | 2022-12-24T00:00:00 | 0.5259 |
262c99ca
|
Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-03-01T00:00:00 | 2022-12-27T00:00:00 | 0.603 |
dd78bb73
|
Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2022-12-29T00:00:00 | 0.6448 |
36e61aed
|
Will year-on-year core inflation in the United States exceed 6% for the year ending in December 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-12T00:00:00 | 2023-01-04T00:00:00 | 0.624 |
0a903380
|
Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-09-04T00:00:00 | 2023-01-08T00:00:00 | 0.6282 |
339ef19a
|
Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2023-01-11T00:00:00 | 0.3503 |
508de2d7
|
Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-07-01T00:00:00 | 2023-01-12T00:00:00 | 0.5215 |
46328f91
|
Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-04-22T00:00:00 | 2023-01-12T00:00:00 | 0.6542 |
6462250a
|
Will the statutory debt limit be increased or suspended for at least 30 days in the United States before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-06-03T00:00:00 | 2023-01-13T00:00:00 | 0.5892 |
c4125b94
|
Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2023-01-16T00:00:00 | 0.5853 |
f488eb27
|
Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-12-31T00:00:00 | 2023-01-21T00:00:00 | 0.7291 |
935c70e2
|
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-05-20T00:00:00 | 2023-01-21T00:00:00 | 0.5683 |
af2dc879
|
Will countries commit at least 100 US/German-made modern main battle tanks to Ukraine before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-02-08T00:00:00 | 2023-01-22T00:00:00 | 0.5102 |
e8d63894
|
Will New York City break its record by going more than 332 days without measurable snow?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-02-01T00:00:00 | 2023-01-24T00:00:00 | 0.3506 |
6fb3cba4
|
Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-12-31T00:00:00 | 2023-01-26T00:00:00 | 0.7239 |
b47491e8
|
Will there no longer be any authorized COVID therapeutic in the U.S. in 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-04T00:00:00 | 2023-01-27T00:00:00 | 0.7238 |
3c0e6888
|
Will there be there be a resurgence of influenza in Virginia to "High" or "Very High" level at any point during the rest of the 2022-2023 flu season?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-07-07T00:00:00 | 2023-01-27T00:00:00 | 0.6993 |
c4214b3c
|
When will the U.S. end the public health emergency for COVID-19?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2023-05-11
| 2023-05-12T00:00:00 | 2023-01-27T00:00:00 | 0.6155 |
d88f3756
|
What will the highest monthly count of false English language COVID claims in 2023?
|
quantity estimation
|
111
| 2024-01-04T00:00:00 | 2023-01-27T00:00:00 | 0.7853 |
e211930e
|
In 2023, will a non-European team win the FIFA Club World Cup for the first time since 2012?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-02-11T00:00:00 | 2023-02-02T00:00:00 | 0.6598 |
0a2d6d2f
|
Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2023-02-03T00:00:00 | 0.6193 |
897ea846
|
Will the maiden flight of the H3 Launch Vehicle carrying ALOS-3 launch successfully and on time?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-02-13T00:00:00 | 2023-02-03T00:00:00 | 0.5409 |
d3689e3f
|
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2023-02-04T00:00:00 | 0.6789 |
fe724fed
|
Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2023-02-06T00:00:00 | 0.7275 |
646114f3
|
Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-31T00:00:00 | 2023-02-09T00:00:00 | 0.7254 |
af8509a6
|
Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-12-31T00:00:00 | 2023-02-13T00:00:00 | 0.7268 |
8600f0f2
|
Will Alphabet's (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-17T00:00:00 | 2023-02-14T00:00:00 | 0.6851 |
5e850c3a
|
Will a country other than the United States shoot down a high-altitude object before the end of February, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-03-02T00:00:00 | 2023-02-14T00:00:00 | 0.6547 |
dff06a17
|
Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-06-29T00:00:00 | 2023-02-16T00:00:00 | 0.3965 |
e8275805
|
Will Google Bard be available to the public on March 5th, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-03-05T00:00:00 | 2023-02-21T00:00:00 | 0.7089 |
471f8ec0
|
Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-07-06T00:00:00 | 2023-02-23T00:00:00 | 0.69 |
0bf32080
|
How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023?
|
quantity estimation
|
5
| 2024-01-15T00:00:00 | 2023-03-10T00:00:00 | 0.6809 |
53a208d4
|
Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-05-01T00:00:00 | 2023-03-11T00:00:00 | 0.491 |
685cd944
|
Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-06-01T00:00:00 | 2023-03-15T00:00:00 | 0.7062 |
7de1a9c6
|
Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-04-01T00:00:00 | 2023-03-15T00:00:00 | 0.5929 |
5c937f4b
|
Will Russia assume the presidency of the UN Security Council on April 1, 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-04-01T00:00:00 | 2023-03-21T00:00:00 | 0.719 |
d45eecb1
|
Will the entire Internet Archive website be taken offline before 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-14T00:00:00 | 2023-03-25T00:00:00 | 0.7161 |
d6577d7b
|
Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-12-30T00:00:00 | 2023-03-25T00:00:00 | 0.6239 |
f4833eac
|
Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-06-01T00:00:00 | 2023-03-25T00:00:00 | 0.7099 |
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