id
stringlengths 8
8
| question
stringlengths 17
200
| type
stringclasses 3
values | resolution
stringclasses 216
values | resolution_time
timestamp[s]date 2016-03-01 00:00:00
2025-02-01 00:00:00
| created_time
timestamp[s]date 2015-10-26 00:00:00
2025-01-08 00:00:00
| confidence
float64 0.05
0.87
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2dad5b76
|
Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2025-01-21T00:00:00 | 2020-09-04T00:00:00 | 0.6932 |
f995d7fd
|
When will the US-Canada border reopen?
|
timeframe prediction
|
above_upper_bound
| 2021-09-07T00:00:00 | 2020-09-05T00:00:00 | 0.532 |
43860ac6
|
Will Trump drop by at least 5 percentage points in the polls after the first debate?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2020-10-14T00:00:00 | 2020-09-14T00:00:00 | 0.7014 |
9667bb50
|
Will George W. Bush endorse Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2020-11-03T00:00:00 | 2020-09-18T00:00:00 | 0.7029 |
008e901b
|
When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2020-10-26
| 2020-10-27T00:00:00 | 2020-09-19T00:00:00 | 0.7522 |
19e5955b
|
If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-09-28T00:00:00 | 2020-09-26T00:00:00 | 0.4862 |
29c9d0ba
|
Will the US NIH recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-07-10T00:00:00 | 2020-09-29T00:00:00 | 0.5986 |
10d4b36a
|
What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?
|
quantity estimation
|
56
| 2020-11-29T00:00:00 | 2020-10-01T00:00:00 | 0.6505 |
b5dbbc18
|
What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?
|
quantity estimation
|
31
| 2020-11-29T00:00:00 | 2020-10-01T00:00:00 | 0.6945 |
c7d960bd
|
What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2020-11-22 through 2020-11-28?
|
quantity estimation
|
43
| 2020-11-29T00:00:00 | 2020-10-01T00:00:00 | 0.5812 |
c49d3d7b
|
When will Trump first test negative from COVID-19?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2020-10-12
| 2020-10-12T00:00:00 | 2020-10-02T00:00:00 | 0.6009 |
321eb872
|
When will the second US presidential debate take place?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2020-10-22
| 2020-10-23T00:00:00 | 2020-10-02T00:00:00 | 0.7355 |
31809f14
|
Will Trump transfer presidential power to VP Mike Pence under section 3 of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2020-11-03T00:00:00 | 2020-10-03T00:00:00 | 0.72 |
be52404e
|
Will President Trump be relieved of his duties under section four of the Twenty-fifth Amendment before election day?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2020-11-03T00:00:00 | 2020-10-03T00:00:00 | 0.7216 |
9bff14ea
|
Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump concede in the 2020 US presidential elections by November 17th?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2020-11-24T00:00:00 | 2020-10-06T00:00:00 | 0.3719 |
b156f21e
|
By March 1st, 2021, will Israel and Saudi Arabia announce a peace or normalization agreement?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-03-01T00:00:00 | 2020-10-06T00:00:00 | 0.6358 |
b06f21ab
|
Will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 10M people by March 1st 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-02-28T00:00:00 | 2020-10-06T00:00:00 | 0.3636 |
730cc6fa
|
Will voter turnout for the US 2020 presidential election be higher than 2016 by 2 percentage points or more?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2020-11-13T00:00:00 | 2020-10-06T00:00:00 | 0.6691 |
3f572dc5
|
On January 1st, 2021, will Americans' opposition to Black Lives Matter be higher than 40%?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-01-04T00:00:00 | 2020-10-06T00:00:00 | 0.5667 |
9f2d2ad8
|
Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-01-20T00:00:00 | 2020-10-07T00:00:00 | 0.7135 |
ab5738c1
|
Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-04-01T00:00:00 | 2020-10-11T00:00:00 | 0.661 |
c8df610d
|
Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-01-01T00:00:00 | 2020-10-11T00:00:00 | 0.4492 |
7e73f65a
|
Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?
|
quantity estimation
|
12
| 2022-02-21T00:00:00 | 2020-10-13T00:00:00 | 0.5671 |
8325e68f
|
Will Democrats win a majority in the senate in the 2020 elections?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-01-12T00:00:00 | 2020-10-15T00:00:00 | 0.3461 |
a06b47a1
|
Will polling in the US presidential election miss the true results by 3 percentage points or more?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2020-12-15T00:00:00 | 2020-10-15T00:00:00 | 0.5672 |
4e287efb
|
When will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2022-06-30
| 2022-06-29T00:00:00 | 2020-10-16T00:00:00 | 0.6062 |
563e1d8a
|
Will Erin O'Toole become Prime Minister of Canada before 2024?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2024-01-01T00:00:00 | 2020-10-17T00:00:00 | 0.6262 |
95c9e6cc
|
Will 538 outperform PredictIt forecasting the 2020 Presidential Elections?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2020-11-15T00:00:00 | 2020-10-21T00:00:00 | 0.6517 |
abc5e5a7
|
Will a major network call the election prematurely?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2020-12-15T00:00:00 | 2020-10-22T00:00:00 | 0.6771 |
6cfe896e
|
Will detection of phosphine in Venus atmosphere be independently reproduced by 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2020-10-23T00:00:00 | 0.685 |
83c510ce
|
Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-08-08T00:00:00 | 2020-10-28T00:00:00 | 0.6519 |
b492f0df
|
Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-01-01T00:00:00 | 2020-10-29T00:00:00 | 0.6458 |
3d9a60c5
|
Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-03-28T00:00:00 | 2020-10-30T00:00:00 | 0.6279 |
6dcfbddb
|
Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-07-21T00:00:00 | 2020-10-30T00:00:00 | 0.6486 |
c4b409f8
|
Will Republicans control the US Senate after the 2022 election?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-02-01T00:00:00 | 2020-11-04T00:00:00 | 0.412 |
a444410f
|
In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20]
|
timeframe prediction
|
2021-01-07
| 2021-01-07T00:00:00 | 2020-11-06T00:00:00 | 0.5079 |
5a18f8de
|
Will Trump freely leave the White House?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-01-20T00:00:00 | 2020-11-08T00:00:00 | 0.7047 |
e3861e78
|
What will the US Q4 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?
|
quantity estimation
|
4
| 2021-01-29T00:00:00 | 2020-11-08T00:00:00 | 0.6141 |
e17d6d1d
|
What will be Donald Trump's net worth in 2024?
|
quantity estimation
|
4
| 2024-10-01T00:00:00 | 2020-11-09T00:00:00 | 0.4969 |
6ac65410
|
Will any states flip from the current projected winner?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2020-12-21T00:00:00 | 2020-11-09T00:00:00 | 0.7177 |
42077d80
|
Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-01-26T00:00:00 | 2020-11-10T00:00:00 | 0.6161 |
f2a317d7
|
Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-01-29T00:00:00 | 2020-11-10T00:00:00 | 0.5444 |
492c7799
|
Will Trump be indicted for obstruction of justice before 2026?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2023-06-09T00:00:00 | 2020-11-10T00:00:00 | 0.4519 |
ca61ec36
|
Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-01-01T00:00:00 | 2020-11-14T00:00:00 | 0.6318 |
54d7bc1d
|
When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2021-04-18
| 2021-04-25T00:00:00 | 2020-11-15T00:00:00 | 0.5694 |
7b042908
|
Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-07-20T00:00:00 | 2020-11-16T00:00:00 | 0.5938 |
b91f3609
|
Will the US Senate Majority Leader be a Republican on February 1st 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-02-07T00:00:00 | 2020-11-17T00:00:00 | 0.3206 |
57c50cef
|
What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?
|
quantity estimation
|
4
| 2022-01-07T00:00:00 | 2020-11-17T00:00:00 | 0.5781 |
a74c5626
|
Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-01-13T00:00:00 | 2020-11-18T00:00:00 | 0.3812 |
27ce0a94
|
By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-01-06T00:00:00 | 2020-11-18T00:00:00 | 0.4914 |
694f628b
|
Will a new variant of SARS-COV-2 that, due to a mutation, can infect people who had immunity to a previous variant, cause more than 10M infections globally by the end of 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-07-07T00:00:00 | 2020-11-19T00:00:00 | 0.4718 |
72f86da9
|
Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?
|
quantity estimation
|
5
| 2022-09-05T00:00:00 | 2020-11-21T00:00:00 | 0.7969 |
0745ad13
|
Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-01-13T00:00:00 | 2020-11-22T00:00:00 | 0.5625 |
80e3962a
|
When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2021-11-22
| 2021-11-22T00:00:00 | 2020-11-23T00:00:00 | 0.5829 |
256f21c7
|
What will the margin of victory be between John Ossoff and David Perdue in the 2020 5 Jan GA (Regular) Runoff Election?
|
quantity estimation
|
-1
| 2021-01-23T00:00:00 | 2020-11-24T00:00:00 | 0.6258 |
ea2c5dfc
|
What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?
|
quantity estimation
|
0
| 2021-03-11T00:00:00 | 2020-11-26T00:00:00 | 0.7279 |
60ff21b2
|
When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2021-04-19
| 2021-04-19T00:00:00 | 2020-11-28T00:00:00 | 0.5614 |
8c59ef54
|
Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-11-16T00:00:00 | 2020-11-30T00:00:00 | 0.6015 |
b6fcfe20
|
Will the #NoFees4Charity campaign succeed?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2020-12-15T00:00:00 | 2020-12-01T00:00:00 | 0.7172 |
5b28661b
|
Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden's inauguration ceremony in person?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-01-20T00:00:00 | 2020-12-01T00:00:00 | 0.7014 |
39d127b8
|
Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-01-02T00:00:00 | 2020-12-01T00:00:00 | 0.673 |
e914d2b7
|
On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-12-04T00:00:00 | 2020-12-04T00:00:00 | 0.6737 |
bd82fd75
|
What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?
|
quantity estimation
|
11
| 2021-07-31T00:00:00 | 2020-12-06T00:00:00 | 0.5521 |
7c88b0d9
|
What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?
|
quantity estimation
|
84
| 2021-11-22T00:00:00 | 2020-12-11T00:00:00 | 0.5696 |
7578b54e
|
What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?
|
quantity estimation
|
87
| 2021-06-15T00:00:00 | 2020-12-11T00:00:00 | 0.6038 |
8f052318
|
How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?
|
quantity estimation
|
744
| 2021-06-15T00:00:00 | 2020-12-11T00:00:00 | 0.6047 |
0dc42164
|
What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?
|
quantity estimation
|
85
| 2021-11-17T00:00:00 | 2020-12-11T00:00:00 | 0.5272 |
6a1114eb
|
What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?
|
quantity estimation
|
5446753
| 2022-01-05T00:00:00 | 2020-12-11T00:00:00 | 0.6682 |
9bc2a6b5
|
What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?
|
quantity estimation
|
820000
| 2022-01-04T00:00:00 | 2020-12-11T00:00:00 | 0.5447 |
15f8e59f
|
How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?
|
quantity estimation
|
3
| 2021-06-28T00:00:00 | 2020-12-11T00:00:00 | 0.6462 |
4e46de08
|
What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?
|
quantity estimation
|
199
| 2021-06-16T00:00:00 | 2020-12-11T00:00:00 | 0.6498 |
2bf657f9
|
When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2021-11-08
| 2021-11-08T00:00:00 | 2020-12-11T00:00:00 | 0.3926 |
2d2a890f
|
Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-12-29T00:00:00 | 2020-12-11T00:00:00 | 0.6931 |
4f217d8e
|
Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-01-14T00:00:00 | 2020-12-11T00:00:00 | 0.6485 |
ad805c96
|
When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement?
|
timeframe prediction
|
2021-01-20
| 2021-01-20T00:00:00 | 2020-12-11T00:00:00 | 0.5443 |
2ccc295f
|
Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-12-31T00:00:00 | 2020-12-11T00:00:00 | 0.6763 |
14642c3e
|
Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-12-31T00:00:00 | 2020-12-11T00:00:00 | 0.5762 |
72496668
|
What will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?
|
quantity estimation
|
5
| 2022-06-20T00:00:00 | 2020-12-11T00:00:00 | 0.665 |
20282395
|
Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-12-31T00:00:00 | 2020-12-12T00:00:00 | 0.6485 |
3dfcb7a5
|
What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?
|
quantity estimation
|
72
| 2022-04-04T00:00:00 | 2020-12-12T00:00:00 | 0.6209 |
5c36b9cd
|
What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?
|
quantity estimation
|
88227
| 2021-07-01T00:00:00 | 2020-12-12T00:00:00 | 0.6742 |
a5edbc52
|
What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?
|
quantity estimation
|
39
| 2021-09-28T00:00:00 | 2020-12-12T00:00:00 | 0.6697 |
fb4d847a
|
What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?
|
quantity estimation
|
393
| 2021-06-14T00:00:00 | 2020-12-12T00:00:00 | 0.6082 |
b215811a
|
What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?
|
quantity estimation
|
90
| 2021-06-14T00:00:00 | 2020-12-12T00:00:00 | 0.6471 |
779a0e81
|
What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?
|
quantity estimation
|
3
| 2021-09-19T00:00:00 | 2020-12-12T00:00:00 | 0.6503 |
ad8f754c
|
What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?
|
quantity estimation
|
91
| 2021-06-15T00:00:00 | 2020-12-12T00:00:00 | 0.6049 |
8670fbc8
|
What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?
|
quantity estimation
|
4469000000
| 2022-01-03T00:00:00 | 2020-12-12T00:00:00 | 0.6335 |
d6ea5718
|
How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?
|
quantity estimation
|
961328
| 2022-02-22T00:00:00 | 2020-12-12T00:00:00 | 0.5183 |
9001ac6e
|
What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?
|
quantity estimation
|
0
| 2021-07-07T00:00:00 | 2020-12-14T00:00:00 | 0.8022 |
5a2332c8
|
Will Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech, or Oxford/AstraZeneca start producing an updated vaccine targeting a SARS-CoV-2 variant before 2023?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-02-25T00:00:00 | 2020-12-20T00:00:00 | 0.5186 |
3a09fa1a
|
Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2022-01-04T00:00:00 | 2020-12-20T00:00:00 | 0.5733 |
b38bddf2
|
Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-01-20T00:00:00 | 2020-12-24T00:00:00 | 0.6834 |
cc41ec42
|
Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-01-20T00:00:00 | 2020-12-24T00:00:00 | 0.675 |
3fd6c56f
|
Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2024-12-12T00:00:00 | 2020-12-26T00:00:00 | 0.6365 |
da07bcef
|
Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2021-06-26T00:00:00 | 2020-12-26T00:00:00 | 0.5335 |
a046075c
|
How many countries will be considered "full democracies" (score higher than 8) by The Economist in 2021?
|
quantity estimation
|
21
| 2022-02-09T00:00:00 | 2020-12-31T00:00:00 | 0.7111 |
21eb7308
|
Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2023-01-01T00:00:00 | 2020-12-31T00:00:00 | 0.6136 |
9c661932
|
When will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?
|
timeframe prediction
|
above_upper_bound
| 2021-12-31T00:00:00 | 2021-01-03T00:00:00 | 0.6902 |
25b52852
|
Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?
|
Boolean question
|
yes
| 2021-06-01T00:00:00 | 2021-01-05T00:00:00 | 0.6511 |
72390169
|
Will Fluvoxamine receive authorization for treatment of Covid by the United States FDA before 2022?
|
Boolean question
|
no
| 2022-01-01T00:00:00 | 2021-01-05T00:00:00 | 0.6785 |
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