Datasets:
TextCEsInFinance
/
fomc-communication

Dataset card Data Studio Files
xet
Community
1
index
int64
0
1.98k
text
stringlengths
13
1.05k
year
int64
2k
2.02k
label
int64
0
2
text_label
stringclasses
3 values
1,145
Consumer prices jumped in October, as hurricane damage contributed to higher prices for food and energy.
2,014
1
hawkish
1,146
In the Committee's discussion of monetary policy for the intermeeting period, nearly all members favored keeping the target federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent at this meeting.
1,997
2
neutral
1,147
Further out, TIPS-based inflation compensation 5 to 10 years ahead edged down slightly on net.
2,016
0
dovish
1,149
First, there is a tug of war between the continued exceptional momentum in private domestic demand and the external drag from the Asian crisis.
1,999
2
neutral
1,150
First, tightening will in all likelihood occur in the context of a more firmly established economic recovery in the United States so that any adverse effects on EME financial conditions should be buffered by the beneficial effects of higher external demand.
1,999
1
hawkish
1,151
Over the long run, real labor compensation tends to track labor productivity.
1,997
2
neutral
1,152
Concepts associated with deflation such as liquidity traps and the zero bound on nominal interest rates had, for practical purposes, disappeared from economic thought.
2,008
1
hawkish
1,153
Some Reasons for the Decline in Far-Forward Rates Why have the far-forward rates implied by the term structure of interest rates declined in recent years?
2,022
2
neutral
1,154
Against the background of its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth and of the information currently available, the Committee believes that the risks continue to be weighted mainly toward conditions that may generate economic weakness in the foreseeable future.
2,015
0
dovish
1,155
In light of the economic outlook, almost all members agreed to indicate that the Committee expects to maintain a highly accommodative stance for monetary policy and currently anticipates that economic conditions--including low rates of resource utilization and a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run--are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014, longer than had been indicated in recent FOMC statements.
2,004
0
dovish
1,156
The Role of Government Policy You will have noted that I have not mentioned the role of government policy in creating a higher rate of trend productivity growth.
2,006
2
neutral
1,157
While the current episode has not yet concluded, it appears that, responding vigorously in a relatively flexible economy to the aftermath of bubbles, as traumatic as that may be, is less inhibiting to long-term growth than chronic high-inflation monetary policy.
2,017
1
hawkish
1,158
The key to explaining why price stability promotes stability in both output and employment is the realization that, when inflation itself is well-controlled, then the public's expectations of inflation will also be low and stable.
2,004
1
hawkish
1,159
Some contacts indicated that while input costs were higher, it appeared that the pass-through of these higher costs to consumer prices was limited.
2,018
2
neutral
1,160
So, what are the implications for monetary policy?
2,022
2
neutral
1,161
PCE price inflation was forecast to still be well above 2 percent at the end of this year.
1,998
0
dovish
1,162
Without a reduction of aggregate demand growth, inflation would rise.
2,013
1
hawkish
1,163
With home prices depressed, housing construction was quite subdued and seen as likely to remain so, while investment in nonresidential structures remained low.
1,999
0
dovish
1,164
Several participants observed that the trimmed mean measure of PCE price inflation constructed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas had stayed near 2 percent recently, underscoring the view that the recent low readings on inflation will prove transitory.
2,017
2
neutral
1,165
For example, for 2003 as a whole, growth in both the monetary base and M2 should be about equal to growth in nominal GDP.
2,004
0
dovish
1,166
In the 1988-90 period, the behavior of crude oil prices, unemployment, and the exchange rate were not especially surprising or anomalous.
2,022
2
neutral
1,167
Inflation, in fact, is under control, and starting to come down.
2,018
2
neutral
1,168
It is my pleasure to meet virtually with you today.1 I look forward to our conversation, but first, please allow me to offer a few remarks on the economic outlook, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and our new monetary policy framework.
1,999
2
neutral
1,169
One participant, however, objected that purchases of MBS, when compared to purchases of longer-term Treasury securities, would likely result in higher interest rates for many borrowers in other sectors.
2,019
1
hawkish
1,170
We can best promote a progressive credit climate by maintaining an environment of low inflation.
2,003
1
hawkish
1,171
Participants also observed that crude oil prices fell over the intermeeting period and other commodity prices also moderated, developments that were likely to damp headline inflation at the consumer level going forward.
2,003
0
dovish
1,172
When we reach maximum employment, when we reach a state where labor market conditions are at maximum employment in the Committee’s judgment, it’s very possible that the inflation test will already be met.
2,017
0
dovish
1,173
The deceleration seemed to reflect primarily an unwinding of heightened demand for the relative safety and liquidity of money market mutual funds that had boosted M2 in prior months.
2,018
0
dovish
1,174
A number of participants noted that continued high unemployment, particularly with large numbers of workers suffering very long spells of unemployment, would lead to an erosion of workers' skills that would have adverse consequences for those workers and for the economy's potential level of output in the longer term.
2,003
0
dovish
1,175
Market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up but remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.
2,020
2
neutral
1,176
First, the projected rates of productivity gains and potential output growth over the medium term were trimmed.
2,014
0
dovish
1,177
But again, in terms of terminology, I guess I would reject that term for the Federal Reserve because we are going to be evenhanded in treating the price stability and maximum employment parts of our mandate on a level footing.
2,011
2
neutral
1,178
However, other participants observed that measures of longer-term inflation compensation derived from financial instruments had remained stable of late, and that survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations also had not changed appreciably, on net, in recent months.
2,000
2
neutral
1,179
The nominal deficit on U. S. trade in goods and services widened substantially in July, reflecting both a decline in exports and a rise in imports.
2,016
1
hawkish
1,180
As stock prices soared in the 1990s, the share of equity holdings in household portfolios surpassed the share of owner-occupied housing.
2,022
2
neutral
1,181
White-collar, high-skilled employment increased at a much faster rate than employment in the other categories in nearly all cases in the G-7 countries over 1979-95.
2,017
2
neutral
1,182
The first round of the three-month U. S. dollar auctions that major foreign central banks announced on September 15 was held in October; demand was quite limited, and only the European Central Bank (ECB) drew on its swap line with the Federal Reserve.
2,007
1
hawkish
1,183
how long before it becomes a factor driving inflation?
2,005
2
neutral
1,184
A higher rate of technical change that raises the productivity and hence the profitability of capital should elevate the value of equities.
1,998
1
hawkish
1,185
Independence and the Federal Reserve System The Federal Reserve, created in 1913, was established as an independent central bank--although, at the time, it was given no clear concept of its role in the conduct of monetary policy.
2,021
2
neutral
1,186
However, the fact that most other industrial countries did not experience the same increase in productivity growth as the United States during that period, even as they became more open to trade, suggests that the relationship between productivity and trade may be complex.
2,006
2
neutral
1,187
Businesses added a bit to their inventory positions after an extended period of sizable declines, but final sales changed little: business capital spending weakened somewhat further while growth in consumer spending, residential housing expenditures, and government outlays slowed.
2,000
2
neutral
1,188
I presented these estimates in my testimony to emphasize the continuing importance the profession attaches to NAIRU, the central tendency of current NAIRU estimates, and the absence of significant upward adjustments to estimates of trend growth.
2,022
0
dovish
1,189
With energy prices having turned down, overall consumer price inflation had eased slightly in recent months,
2,020
2
neutral
1,190
Several participants stated that such risks should not inhibit the Committee from pursuing its mandated objectives for inflation and employment.
2,014
2
neutral
1,191
The events of the last two years come on top of a huge expansion of global trade, competition and productive capacity--all of which have given American businesses less control over prices in the face of rising costs and benefited American consumers through low prices.
2,013
2
neutral
1,192
Some participants judged that a less accommodative future stance of policy would likely be warranted and that the Committee should convey a strong commitment to address elevated inflation pressures.
2,006
1
hawkish
1,193
On the upside, recent fiscal policy changes could lead to a greater expansion in economic activity over the next few years than the staff projected.
1,998
1
hawkish
1,194
As you said, falling oil prices pull down inflation.
2,017
0
dovish
1,195
Holiday shopping reportedly was relatively solid, and, reflecting the improvement in the housing market, demand for home furnishings and construction materials was up.
2,019
1
hawkish
1,196
Some participants noted that additional asset purchases could be used to provide more accommodation by lowering longer-term interest rates.
2,009
0
dovish
1,197
The demand for commercial paper declined as prime money market mutual funds experienced large net outflows after the net asset value of one such fund fell below $1 per share.
2,018
2
neutral
1,198
But monetary policy has little ability to affect inflation this year.
1,998
2
neutral
1,199
Unfortunately, I suspect that this call would often come so late in the day that, given the lags in the monetary transmission mechanism and uncertainty about the duration of bubbles, raising interest rates might actually risk exacerbating instability.
2,005
0
dovish
1,200
And our plan as we do that is, as those purchases get to that level, we believe we can gradually reduce them, and we believe we can also gradually reduce repo as—as we reach an ample level, as we’re satisfying demand now more from underlying reserves from bill purchases rather than from repo.
2,011
0
dovish
1,202
In the absence of such offsetting operations, a decrease in currency demand would raise the amount of reserves and hence lower the federal funds rate.
2,000
0
dovish
1,203
The disruptions to global economic activity had significantly affected financial conditions and impaired the flow of credit to U. S. households and businesses.
2,011
0
dovish
1,204
Although the initial offerings of these securities were well received, investor demand at the most recent sales was not as strong, a development consistent with the declines in the prices of non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities over the intermeeting period.
2,018
1
hawkish
1,205
From a policy perspective, a difficulty with all these measures is that they reflect expectations of headline inflation rather than the core inflation measures usually emphasized in the monetary policy context.
2,021
2
neutral
1,206
This approach adds to what we have learned from earlier papers that have examined the performance of unconventional policy tools with respect to individual components of financial conditions—most notably, long-term sovereign yields, but also mortgage rates, equities, exchange rates, and corporate debt spreads.3 Empirically assessing the question in the report is not only important, but also challenging, as the report readily acknowledges.
2,021
2
neutral
1,207
One of the things we’ve learned from our financial crisis and from a series of financial crises in history and around the globe is that, very commonly, when the economy takes a hit and falls into a recession, that productivity doesn’t pick up to pre-recession levels and that there looks like there is a permanent hit to the path of potential output for the economy, which is called “hysteresis.” And I raised the question as to whether or not this might operate in the opposite direction as well.
2,021
2
neutral
1,208
However, in light of the projected persistence of slack in labor and product markets and the anticipated stability in long-term inflation expectations, the increase in inflation was expected to be mostly transitory if oil and other commodity prices did not rise significantly further.
2,014
2
neutral
1,209
However, most participants judged that inflation would stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term.
2,006
2
neutral
1,210
A key purpose of our review has been to take stock of the lessons learned over this period and identify any further changes in our monetary policy framework that could enhance our ability to achieve our maximum-employment and price-stability objectives in the years ahead.9 Our evolving understanding of four key economic developments motivated our review.
1,998
2
neutral
1,211
For example, as table 1 shows, the collective current account surplus of the Middle East and Africa rose more than $40 billion between 1996 and 2003; it continued to swell in 2004 as oil prices increased yet further.
2,004
1
hawkish
1,212
In Latin America, indicators suggested that economic activity in Mexico and Brazil expanded further in the first quarter.
2,015
2
neutral
1,213
however, for the two months combined, the deficit was considerably wider than its average rate for the second quarter.
2,016
2
neutral
1,214
In the emerging market economies (EMEs), a pickup in growth in China in the second quarter, supported by policy stimulus, appeared to be more than offset by slower growth in Latin America.
2,010
2
neutral
1,215
The labor force participation rate, along with the employment-to-population ratio, increased, on net, in recent months.
2,008
1
hawkish
1,216
But the advent of the war has led to a significant hit to real incomes from large price increases in energy and other commodities in some of the most severely affected economies.
1,997
1
hawkish
1,217
Turning now to monetary policy, at both its July and September meetings, the FOMC voted to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points.3 With these decisions, the current target range for the federal funds rate is 1.75 to 2 percent, which compares with the range of 2.25 to 2.5 percent that prevailed between December 2018 and July 2019.
1,997
0
dovish
1,218
Central banks have adopted price stability as a key long-term objective, and they have become more transparent and systematic in their operations.
1,997
1
hawkish
1,219
That said, many of my colleagues and I would see a portion of the decline in the unemployment rate as perhaps not representing a diminution of slack in the labor market.
2,016
1
hawkish
1,220
Over the 1994-2002 period, seven prominent inflation-targeting industrial countries had a mean inflation rate of consumer prices of 2.1 percent per year with a standard deviation of 1.7 percent.
1,997
2
neutral
1,221
A couple of participants referred to information from business contacts suggesting that inflation was unlikely to decline further, and a few expressed concerns that maintaining a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy for an extended period could erode the stability of inflation expectations over time and hence posed upside risks to the inflation outlook.
2,019
1
hawkish
1,222
These rates of growth were associated with ranges for the civilian rate of unemployment of 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2004 and 5 to 5-1/2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2005.
2,007
2
neutral
1,223
there are some indications that headwinds to global growth may be beginning to abate.
2,022
2
neutral
1,224
It was to do with, you know, strong monetary policy and fiscal stimulus into an economy that was recovering rapidly, and in which there were these supply-side barriers which effectively led to, you know, in certain parts of the economy, what you might call a vertical supply curve.
2,021
1
hawkish
1,225
In their discussion of monetary policy for the intermeeting period, Committee members agreed that keeping the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent would be appropriate.
2,021
0
dovish
1,226
The staff expected the 12-month change in PCE prices to gradually move down in coming months, reflecting, importantly, the fading of base effects along with smaller expected monthly price increases,
1,998
2
neutral
1,227
In these circumstances, the Committee believed that policy accommodation could be removed at a pace that would likely be measured but noted that it would respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability.
2,010
1
hawkish
1,228
Participants discussed their assessments of risks to financial stability, particularly in light of the Committee's highly accommodative stance of monetary policy.
1,998
0
dovish
1,229
This term has been interpreted by many observers to mean that the Committee's reaction function aimed to be symmetric on either side of the 2 percent inflation goal, and that the FOMC set policy with the (ex ante) aim that the 2 percent goal should represent an inflation ceiling in economic expansions following economic downturns in which inflation falls below target.
1,999
1
hawkish
1,230
those risks appeared to be quite limited for the nearer term, excessive monetary stimulus had to be avoided to avert rising inflation expectations and added inflation pressures over time.
2,010
1
hawkish
1,231
The unemployment rate is near a 50-year low, and inflation is running close to our 2 percent objective.
1,999
2
neutral
1,232
While great uncertainty regarding the path of fiscal policy and its economic effects will remain for some time, with the economy getting closer to full employment, the prospect of a material increase in fiscal stimulus over a sustained period could reasonably be expected to shift somewhat greater probability toward stronger inflation outcomes.
2,019
1
hawkish
1,233
The Committee also anticipates that inflation will settle, over coming quarters, at levels at or below those consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.
2,016
2
neutral
1,234
There is, in my view, a reasonable prospect that each of these two effects will reverse their contributions to inflation over the next couple of years and that balance between them will be important in determining the pattern of core and overall inflation rates.
2,005
2
neutral
1,235
A few members expressed interest in using language specifying a period of time during which the federal funds rate was expected to remain exceptionally low, rather than a calendar date, arguing that such language might be better to indicate a constant stance of monetary policy over time.
2,019
0
dovish
1,236
A concern that one might have about price-level targeting, as opposed to more conventional inflation targeting, is that it requires a short-term inflation rate that is higher than the long-term inflation objective.
1,997
2
neutral
1,237
Broad equity price indexes were higher over the intermeeting period, amid heightened volatility.
1,999
2
neutral
1,238
In the current decade, however, the standard deviation of inflation has been relatively stable in Brazil, at around 5 percent, and it has been declining in Mexico, where it is now around 2 percent.
2,000
2
neutral
1,239
Some members expressed concern about the longer-run prospects for large federal deficits and their implications for the future performance of the economy.
2,013
0
dovish
1,240
The guidance on asset purchases, introduced in December, commits us to increasing our holdings of securities at least at the current pace until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee's maximum-employment and price-stability goals.
1,997
0
dovish
1,241
One might even argue that if a central bank ever converged on a single monetary rule, there would be no need for a monetary policy committee.
2,020
2
neutral
1,242
As the factors restraining economic growth are projected to fade further over time, the median rate rises to 3 percent by the end of 2018, close to its longer-run normal level.
2,017
1
hawkish
1,243
Three Questions The first question is, "Can the Federal Reserve best meet its statutory objectives with its existing monetary policy strategy, or should it consider strategies that aim to reverse past misses of the inflation objective?"
2,007
2
neutral
1,244
Participants thought that consumer expenditures likely would expand at a moderate pace in coming quarters, supported by solid gains in employment and real income.
1,997
1
hawkish
1,245
By contrast, raising rates too slowly would raise the risk that monetary policy would need to tighten abruptly down the road, which could jeopardize the economic expansion.
2,022
1
hawkish
1,246
Moreover, the recent relatively low monthly readings on core inflation and modest wage pressures, at least by some measures, suggested that some slack remained in resource utilization.
2,002
0
dovish