TextCEsInFinance/fomc-communication

index int64 0 1.98k	text stringlengths 13 1.05k	year int64 2k 2.02k	label int64 0 2	text_label stringclasses 3 values
1,450	This volatility can impede the effective implementation of monetary policy, and we are addressing it.	2,004	2	neutral
1,451	As I mentioned, monetary policy operates with lags, so, the policies we have in place, we think, will gradually—only gradually—move inflation back to 2 percent.	2,018	1	hawkish
1,452	But is it really true that prices are more responsive to productivity than wages?	1,998	2	neutral
1,453	Broad stock price indexes rose, on net, over the intermeeting period, boosted in part by favorable earnings reports from the retail sector.	1,999	2	neutral
1,454	In particular, we are closely monitoring the emergence of the coronavirus, which is likely to have a noticeable impact on Chinese growth, at least in the first quarter of this year.	2,021	0	dovish
1,455	Members agreed that the statement should continue to convey that inflation risks remained of greatest concern and that additional policy firming was possible.	2,003	1	hawkish
1,456	Although some of the recent data on economic activity had been better than anticipated, most participants saw the incoming information as broadly in line with their earlier projections for moderate growth; accordingly, their views on the economic outlook had not changed appreciably.	2,015	2	neutral
1,457	These base effects will contribute about 1 percentage point to headline inflation and about 0.7 percentage point to core inflation in April and May.	2,022	2	neutral
1,458	Workers in the lowest-wage quartile face an extremely elevated rate of unemployment of around 23 percent.7 The advent of widespread vaccinations should revive in-person schooling and childcare along with demand for the in-person services that employ a significant fraction of the lower-wage workforce.	1,999	0	dovish
1,459	Today, just nine months later, the unemployment rate is 7.6 percent--a larger decline than most FOMC participants expected in September.	2,019	2	neutral
1,460	survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations were little changed.	2,013	2	neutral
1,461	Some members commented, however, that the relationship between the output gap and inflation was quite loose and that the outlook for productivity remained uncertain.	2,013	2	neutral
1,462	Fourth, I will discuss the major findings of the review as codified in our new Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy and highlight some important policy implications that flow from them.	2,008	2	neutral
1,463	With crude oil prices expected to gradually decline from their current levels, the boost to retail food prices from the drought anticipated to be only temporary and comparatively small, long-run inflation expectations assumed to remain stable, and substantial resource slack persisting over the projection period, the staff continued to forecast that inflation would be subdued through 2014.	2,020	2	neutral
1,464	There is much about the inflation process that we do not understand, and I have been surprised at the extent of the pickup in core inflation this year.	2,005	1	hawkish
1,465	Rapid increases in healthcare and other insurance costs and the lagged passthrough of large increases in oil prices would tend to maintain upward pressure on prices.	2,005	1	hawkish
1,466	So, as I mentioned, we’re going to be looking at all of those things: activity, labor market, inflation.	2,019	2	neutral
1,467	The complementarity of price stability with the other goals of monetary policy is now the consensus view among economists and central bankers.	2,004	1	hawkish
1,468	A more robust contour for final sales over the forecast horizon would lead to somewhat greater pressure on resource margins, despite the expected strong growth of structural productivity, though the level of activity would remain below the economy's potential for some time.	2,014	0	dovish
1,469	We are quite aware that very low interest rates, particularly for a protracted period, do have costs for a lot of people.	2,020	1	hawkish
1,470	The flow of macrodata received since May has been surprisingly strong, and GDP growth in the third quarter is estimated by many forecasters to have rebounded at roughly a 30 percent annual rate.	2,004	1	hawkish
1,471	For example, the evidence suggests that changes in the demographic composition of the labor force affect NAIRU and it is also likely that government programs, including unemployment compensation and welfare, also affect NAIRU.	1,997	2	neutral
1,472	In light of these significant policy actions, the risks to growth were now thought to be more closely balanced by the risks to inflation.	2,003	2	neutral
1,473	With a series of inflationary supply shocks, it is especially important to guard against the risk that households and businesses could start to expect inflation to remain above 2 percent in the longer run, which would make it much more challenging to bring inflation back down to our target.	2,017	1	hawkish
1,474	The recent decline in mortgage rates had sparked some refinancing and purchase activity, but the extent of the longer-term impact of lower rates on housing demand remained uncertain.	2,011	0	dovish
1,475	Most participants continued to think that the cyclical pressures associated with a tightening labor market were likely to show through to higher inflation over the medium term.	2,007	1	hawkish
1,476	With an increase in the target range at this meeting, the federal funds rate would be at or close to the lower end of the range of estimates of the longer-run neutral interest rate, and participants expressed that recent developments, including the volatility in financial markets and the increased concerns about global growth, made the appropriate extent and timing of future policy firming less clear than earlier.	2,006	1	hawkish
1,477	For example, monetary policy makers might attempt to influence market expectations of future short rates as an alternative to changing the current setting of the overnight rate.	1,997	2	neutral
1,478	Some measures of inflation expectations were down notably over the intermeeting period.	2,018	0	dovish
1,479	"6 In the second half of the 1990s, this measurement puzzle was at the heart of monetary policymaking.7 Chairman Alan Greenspan famously argued that the United States was experiencing the dawn of a new economy, and that potential and actual output were likely understated in official statistics.	2,007	2	neutral
1,480	Balance Sheet Policies and Reserve Demand Taking stock, I note that one approach to the constraints on policy imposed by the current low level of interest rates is to make what were previously unconventional toolsâ€”balance sheet policies and forward guidanceâ€”as conventional as possible.	2,007	2	neutral
1,481	Germany and Japan--whose economies have been growing slowly despite very low interest rates--have not.	1,998	2	neutral
1,482	The Committee directs the Desk to purchase GSE debt, GSE-guaranteed MBS, and longer-term Treasury securities during the intermeeting period with the aim of providing support to private credit markets and economic activity.	2,001	0	dovish
1,484	For instance, in countries where sovereign or corporate debt levels are high, higher interest rates could increase debt-servicing burdens and concerns about debt sustainability, which could be exacerbated by currency depreciation.	2,004	0	dovish
1,485	The changes we made last year to our Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy are well suited to address today's challenges.	2,005	2	neutral
1,486	But I have showed that past experience actually indicates that a reduction in vacancies can take place without a big loss of employment, and this is the kind of soft landing anticipated by FOMC participants.	2,022	2	neutral
1,487	The risk of higher inflation in this environment has two dimensions.	2,020	1	hawkish
1,488	In addition, the maximum sustainable levels of output and employment cannot be known with any assurance (Mishkin, 2007b).	2,019	2	neutral
1,489	Based on historical experience, it seems improbable that all of the large rise in multifactor productivity could be attributed to cyclical or transitory factors.	2,007	0	dovish
1,490	Many participants commented that measures of short-term inflation expectations were elevated or that far-forward measures of inflation compensation were near the upper edge of their historical range.	2,002	1	hawkish
1,491	My impression is that most investors agree that the change is an improvement in openness and transparency of monetary policy.	2,021	2	neutral
1,492	Inflation rose further in most foreign economies, reflecting a reversal of price declines seen in the spring of 2020, higher energy and commodity prices, and supply bottlenecks.	2,016	1	hawkish
1,493	During the first stage, the inflation rate would exceed the long-term desired inflation rate, as the price-level gap was eliminated and the effects of previous deflation undone.	2,000	1	hawkish
1,494	Pressures on labor resources were likely to ease somewhat as the expansion of economic activity slowed,	1,996	2	neutral
1,495	These members expected that the target range would be maintained at this level until they were confident that the economy had weathered recent events and was on track to achieve the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals.	2,002	2	neutral
1,496	It was a question of not getting inflation up to our target on a robust, symmetric kind of a way.	2,021	0	dovish
1,497	Well, our policy approach doesn’t involve intentionally trying to raise inflation.	2,020	1	hawkish
1,498	But before I return to the prospects for 1998 and the challenges for monetary policy, I will offer a retrospective on 1997.	2,021	2	neutral
1,499	So, with this coronavirus arriving, we judged that the—the net effects of this will be to—to have inflation move down even a little bit more.	2,014	0	dovish
1,500	Indeed, some members saw underlying inflation as relatively stable and put low odds on the possibility that prices now were accelerating.	2,016	2	neutral
1,501	Foreign economic growth remained sluggish, restrained by weak activity in Europe and the associated spillovers--including through trade--to the rest of the world.	2,016	2	neutral
1,502	such costs appeared tolerable in light of the employment gains that came with them.	2,019	2	neutral
1,503	In our FOMC statements, we have indicated we expect to maintain the target range at this level until we are confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve our maximum-employment and price-stability goals.	2,006	2	neutral
1,504	Changes in the deficit resulting from changes in economic conditions, health prices, demographics, and other technical or economic factors were allowed to show through to the deficit without sanction.	2,007	2	neutral
1,505	These participants concluded that the Committee should wait to take another step in removing accommodation until the data on economic activity provided a greater level of confidence that economic growth was strong enough to withstand a possible downward shock to demand.	2,002	0	dovish
1,506	First, such a development would ultimately call for an upward revision to the targets for money growth, so that the money growth targets would remain consistent with an unchanged target for the inflation rate.	2,001	0	dovish
1,507	I think it would be naive to assume that circumstances would not arise in which the central bank faced short-term choices between inflation stability and economic or financial stability.	2,001	2	neutral
1,508	And I assure you that my colleagues and I will continue to conduct monetary policy without regard to political considerations.	2,018	2	neutral
1,509	In the past few years, the effect on the dollar of increased expectations about divergence between U.S. and foreign interest rates has been especially strong.9 The nearly 20 percent increase in the dollar over 2014 and 2015 coincided with falling real exports and import prices in the United States.	2,021	0	dovish
1,510	On balance over the intermeeting period, interest rates on private instruments registered small mixed changes while yields on longer-term Treasury securities declined significantly.	2,005	0	dovish
1,511	Some participants mentioned upside risks around the inflation outlook that could arise if temporary factors influencing inflation turned out to be more persistent than expected.	2,009	1	hawkish
1,512	And what is the risk that, in taking such steps, a central bank would be seen by investors as taking on partial responsibility for asset prices?	2,000	2	neutral
1,513	But dividing that nominal value change into components representing changes in real quantity versus price requires that one define a unit of output that is to remain constant in all transactions over time.	2,021	2	neutral
1,514	Although your papers concentrate on the equity premium, I would like to take a few minutes today to broaden the discussion to encompass risk premiums in other markets and to highlight the connections between risk premiums and monetary policy.	1,997	2	neutral
1,515	Moreover, theory and intuition tell us that monetary credibility will be greatest when the central bank does what it is supposed to do: offset economic shocks to keep price pressures from building and thereby keep inflation itself low and stable.	2,006	1	hawkish
1,516	Modern quantitative approaches to risk measurement and risk management take as their starting point historical experience with market price fluctuations, which is statistically summarized in probability distributions.	2,020	2	neutral
1,517	A substantial increase in lending to nonprime borrowers contributed to the bulge in residential investment in 2004 and 2005, and the tightening of credit conditions for these borrowers likely accounts for some of the continued softening in demand we have seen this year.	2,005	2	neutral
1,518	Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee's longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices.	2,016	0	dovish
1,519	The emphasis was on providing currency and reserves to meet seasonal demands and on assisting banks in accommodating the credit needs of commerce and business.	2,005	0	dovish
1,521	The first driver is the long-term increase in the demand for currency and reserves.	2,013	0	dovish
1,522	survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.	2,020	2	neutral
1,523	Job gains had been solid, on average, since the beginning of the year, and the unemployment rate had declined.	2,005	1	hawkish
1,524	But, as a consequence of low interest rates, the servicing requirement for that debt relative to homeowners' income is roughly in line with the historical average.	2,004	0	dovish
1,525	The upswing in M2 growth since late winter stemmed in part from the temporary effects of mortgage refinancing, which boosted liquid deposits over this period, though M2 was also buoyed by strong gains in nominal income.	2,012	0	dovish
1,526	However, the projected step-up in real GDP growth over the second half of this year was marked down a little, partly reflecting softer news on construction.	1,998	0	dovish
1,527	in turn, larger expected productivity advances and a lower cost of equity capital provided a further stimulus to investment.	2,006	2	neutral
1,528	For a variety of reasons, oil prices already had risen appreciably since the start of the year.	2,007	1	hawkish
1,529	This is yet another concerningly high reading, and it set another 40-year record high despite the expectation of many forecasters that inflation had peaked earlier in the year.	2,020	1	hawkish
1,530	Indeed, economic growth abroad was widely viewed as dependent to a significant extent on the performance of the U. S. economy.	2,022	2	neutral
1,531	Inflation had been subdued,	2,016	0	dovish
1,532	Although I expect these upward price pressures to ease after the temporary supply bottlenecks are resolved, the exact timing of that dynamic is uncertain.	2,006	1	hawkish
1,533	Spreads on risky private-sector debt reached very low levels, and damaging spillovers to the nonfinancial sector occurred in the form of unduly high real estate prices and excessive leverage by borrowers in the housing market.	2,006	1	hawkish
1,534	Moreover, the outlook for foreign economic activity also appeared a bit weaker.	2,002	2	neutral
1,535	In their review of developments in key sectors of the economy, members again emphasized the ongoing strength in household spending and its vital role in moderating the weakness in overall economic activity.	2,020	2	neutral
1,536	In addition, the Committee reaffirmed its intention to keep the target federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and retained its forward guidance that it anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored.	2,015	0	dovish
1,537	These participants preferred to wait until there was greater assurance that the transmission mechanism of monetary policy via financial markets and the supply of credit to households and businesses was working effectively.	2,002	2	neutral
1,538	There appears to have been some evolution in inflation-targeting regimes toward greater flexibility.	2,004	0	dovish
1,539	At the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until it was instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive: "Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster maximum employment and price stability.	2,009	0	dovish
1,540	Because inflation normally responds slowly to such shocks, inflation targeters could respond in any of three ways.	2,007	1	hawkish
1,541	Even with the improving labor market, I still hear from businesses that qualified workers are difficult to find, and labor shortages remain a drag on hiring and on economic growth.	1,996	0	dovish
1,542	Survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations remained stable,	2,000	2	neutral
1,543	With regard to our price-stability mandate,	2,000	2	neutral
1,544	Inflation has moved up in recent months, mainly reflecting higher prices for some commodities and imported goods.	2,012	1	hawkish
1,545	What modern monetary policymaking has not faced for quite some time, if ever, has been a major surge in innovation--matching, if not exceeding, the other great waves this century--followed by an apparent elevation of productivity growth.	2,022	0	dovish
1,546	In contrast, economic activity declined in Japan during the third quarter after a surge in the first half of the year.	2,018	2	neutral
1,547	This week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) took another significant step toward achieving our inflation objective by raising the Federal Funds rate target by 75 basis points.	2,004	1	hawkish
1,548	In essence, monetary credibility helps the central bank do its job, by inducing private sector participants also to take actions that help achieve the central bank's low inflation objective.	2,022	1	hawkish
1,549	increases in expected inflation will thus tend to promote greater actual inflation.	2,004	2	neutral
1,551	Total nonfarm payroll employment expanded at a solid pace in July and August.	2,013	1	hawkish
1,552	remained below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports.	2,016	0	dovish

1,450

This volatility can impede the effective implementation of monetary policy, and we are addressing it.

2,004

2

neutral

1,451

As I mentioned, monetary policy operates with lags, so, the policies we have in place, we think, will gradually—only gradually—move inflation back to 2 percent.

2,018

1

hawkish

1,452

But is it really true that prices are more responsive to productivity than wages?

1,998

2

neutral

1,453

Broad stock price indexes rose, on net, over the intermeeting period, boosted in part by favorable earnings reports from the retail sector.

1,999

2

neutral

1,454

In particular, we are closely monitoring the emergence of the coronavirus, which is likely to have a noticeable impact on Chinese growth, at least in the first quarter of this year.

2,021

0

dovish

1,455

Members agreed that the statement should continue to convey that inflation risks remained of greatest concern and that additional policy firming was possible.

2,003

1

hawkish

1,456

Although some of the recent data on economic activity had been better than anticipated, most participants saw the incoming information as broadly in line with their earlier projections for moderate growth; accordingly, their views on the economic outlook had not changed appreciably.

2,015

2

neutral

1,457

These base effects will contribute about 1 percentage point to headline inflation and about 0.7 percentage point to core inflation in April and May.

2,022

2

neutral

1,458

Workers in the lowest-wage quartile face an extremely elevated rate of unemployment of around 23 percent.7 The advent of widespread vaccinations should revive in-person schooling and childcare along with demand for the in-person services that employ a significant fraction of the lower-wage workforce.

1,999

0

dovish

1,459

Today, just nine months later, the unemployment rate is 7.6 percent--a larger decline than most FOMC participants expected in September.

2,019

2

neutral

1,460

survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations were little changed.

2,013

2

neutral

1,461

Some members commented, however, that the relationship between the output gap and inflation was quite loose and that the outlook for productivity remained uncertain.

2,013

2

neutral

1,462

Fourth, I will discuss the major findings of the review as codified in our new Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy and highlight some important policy implications that flow from them.

2,008

2

neutral

1,463

With crude oil prices expected to gradually decline from their current levels, the boost to retail food prices from the drought anticipated to be only temporary and comparatively small, long-run inflation expectations assumed to remain stable, and substantial resource slack persisting over the projection period, the staff continued to forecast that inflation would be subdued through 2014.

2,020

2

neutral

1,464

There is much about the inflation process that we do not understand, and I have been surprised at the extent of the pickup in core inflation this year.

2,005

1

hawkish

1,465

Rapid increases in healthcare and other insurance costs and the lagged passthrough of large increases in oil prices would tend to maintain upward pressure on prices.

2,005

1

hawkish

1,466

So, as I mentioned, we’re going to be looking at all of those things: activity, labor market, inflation.

2,019

2

neutral

1,467

The complementarity of price stability with the other goals of monetary policy is now the consensus view among economists and central bankers.

2,004

1

hawkish

1,468

A more robust contour for final sales over the forecast horizon would lead to somewhat greater pressure on resource margins, despite the expected strong growth of structural productivity, though the level of activity would remain below the economy's potential for some time.

2,014

0

dovish

1,469

We are quite aware that very low interest rates, particularly for a protracted period, do have costs for a lot of people.

2,020

1

hawkish

1,470

The flow of macrodata received since May has been surprisingly strong, and GDP growth in the third quarter is estimated by many forecasters to have rebounded at roughly a 30 percent annual rate.

2,004

1

hawkish

1,471

For example, the evidence suggests that changes in the demographic composition of the labor force affect NAIRU and it is also likely that government programs, including unemployment compensation and welfare, also affect NAIRU.

1,997

2

neutral

1,472

In light of these significant policy actions, the risks to growth were now thought to be more closely balanced by the risks to inflation.

2,003

2

neutral

1,473

With a series of inflationary supply shocks, it is especially important to guard against the risk that households and businesses could start to expect inflation to remain above 2 percent in the longer run, which would make it much more challenging to bring inflation back down to our target.

2,017

1

hawkish

1,474

The recent decline in mortgage rates had sparked some refinancing and purchase activity, but the extent of the longer-term impact of lower rates on housing demand remained uncertain.

2,011

0

dovish

1,475

Most participants continued to think that the cyclical pressures associated with a tightening labor market were likely to show through to higher inflation over the medium term.

2,007

1

hawkish

1,476

With an increase in the target range at this meeting, the federal funds rate would be at or close to the lower end of the range of estimates of the longer-run neutral interest rate, and participants expressed that recent developments, including the volatility in financial markets and the increased concerns about global growth, made the appropriate extent and timing of future policy firming less clear than earlier.

2,006

1

hawkish

1,477

For example, monetary policy makers might attempt to influence market expectations of future short rates as an alternative to changing the current setting of the overnight rate.

1,997

2

neutral

1,478

Some measures of inflation expectations were down notably over the intermeeting period.

2,018

0

dovish

1,479

"6 In the second half of the 1990s, this measurement puzzle was at the heart of monetary policymaking.7 Chairman Alan Greenspan famously argued that the United States was experiencing the dawn of a new economy, and that potential and actual output were likely understated in official statistics.

2,007

2

neutral

1,480

Balance Sheet Policies and Reserve Demand Taking stock, I note that one approach to the constraints on policy imposed by the current low level of interest rates is to make what were previously unconventional toolsâ€”balance sheet policies and forward guidanceâ€”as conventional as possible.

2,007

2

neutral

1,481

Germany and Japan--whose economies have been growing slowly despite very low interest rates--have not.

1,998

2

neutral

1,482

The Committee directs the Desk to purchase GSE debt, GSE-guaranteed MBS, and longer-term Treasury securities during the intermeeting period with the aim of providing support to private credit markets and economic activity.

2,001

0

dovish

1,484

For instance, in countries where sovereign or corporate debt levels are high, higher interest rates could increase debt-servicing burdens and concerns about debt sustainability, which could be exacerbated by currency depreciation.

2,004

0

dovish

1,485

The changes we made last year to our Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy are well suited to address today's challenges.

2,005

2

neutral

1,486

But I have showed that past experience actually indicates that a reduction in vacancies can take place without a big loss of employment, and this is the kind of soft landing anticipated by FOMC participants.

2,022

2

neutral

1,487

The risk of higher inflation in this environment has two dimensions.

2,020

1

hawkish

1,488

In addition, the maximum sustainable levels of output and employment cannot be known with any assurance (Mishkin, 2007b).

2,019

2

neutral

1,489

Based on historical experience, it seems improbable that all of the large rise in multifactor productivity could be attributed to cyclical or transitory factors.

2,007

0

dovish

1,490

Many participants commented that measures of short-term inflation expectations were elevated or that far-forward measures of inflation compensation were near the upper edge of their historical range.

2,002

1

hawkish

1,491

My impression is that most investors agree that the change is an improvement in openness and transparency of monetary policy.

2,021

2

neutral

1,492

Inflation rose further in most foreign economies, reflecting a reversal of price declines seen in the spring of 2020, higher energy and commodity prices, and supply bottlenecks.

2,016

1

hawkish

1,493

During the first stage, the inflation rate would exceed the long-term desired inflation rate, as the price-level gap was eliminated and the effects of previous deflation undone.

2,000

1

hawkish

1,494

Pressures on labor resources were likely to ease somewhat as the expansion of economic activity slowed,

1,996

2

neutral

1,495

These members expected that the target range would be maintained at this level until they were confident that the economy had weathered recent events and was on track to achieve the Committee's maximum employment and price stability goals.

2,002

2

neutral

1,496

It was a question of not getting inflation up to our target on a robust, symmetric kind of a way.

2,021

0

dovish

1,497

Well, our policy approach doesn’t involve intentionally trying to raise inflation.

2,020

1

hawkish

1,498

But before I return to the prospects for 1998 and the challenges for monetary policy, I will offer a retrospective on 1997.

2,021

2

neutral

1,499

So, with this coronavirus arriving, we judged that the—the net effects of this will be to—to have inflation move down even a little bit more.

2,014

0

dovish

1,500

Indeed, some members saw underlying inflation as relatively stable and put low odds on the possibility that prices now were accelerating.

2,016

2

neutral

1,501

Foreign economic growth remained sluggish, restrained by weak activity in Europe and the associated spillovers--including through trade--to the rest of the world.

2,016

2

neutral

1,502

such costs appeared tolerable in light of the employment gains that came with them.

2,019

2

neutral

1,503

In our FOMC statements, we have indicated we expect to maintain the target range at this level until we are confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve our maximum-employment and price-stability goals.

2,006

2

neutral

1,504

Changes in the deficit resulting from changes in economic conditions, health prices, demographics, and other technical or economic factors were allowed to show through to the deficit without sanction.

2,007

2

neutral

1,505

These participants concluded that the Committee should wait to take another step in removing accommodation until the data on economic activity provided a greater level of confidence that economic growth was strong enough to withstand a possible downward shock to demand.

2,002

0

dovish

1,506

First, such a development would ultimately call for an upward revision to the targets for money growth, so that the money growth targets would remain consistent with an unchanged target for the inflation rate.

2,001

0

dovish

1,507

I think it would be naive to assume that circumstances would not arise in which the central bank faced short-term choices between inflation stability and economic or financial stability.

2,001

2

neutral

1,508

And I assure you that my colleagues and I will continue to conduct monetary policy without regard to political considerations.

2,018

2

neutral

1,509

In the past few years, the effect on the dollar of increased expectations about divergence between U.S. and foreign interest rates has been especially strong.9 The nearly 20 percent increase in the dollar over 2014 and 2015 coincided with falling real exports and import prices in the United States.

2,021

0

dovish

1,510

On balance over the intermeeting period, interest rates on private instruments registered small mixed changes while yields on longer-term Treasury securities declined significantly.

2,005

0

dovish

1,511

Some participants mentioned upside risks around the inflation outlook that could arise if temporary factors influencing inflation turned out to be more persistent than expected.

2,009

1

hawkish

1,512

And what is the risk that, in taking such steps, a central bank would be seen by investors as taking on partial responsibility for asset prices?

2,000

2

neutral

1,513

But dividing that nominal value change into components representing changes in real quantity versus price requires that one define a unit of output that is to remain constant in all transactions over time.

2,021

2

neutral

1,514

Although your papers concentrate on the equity premium, I would like to take a few minutes today to broaden the discussion to encompass risk premiums in other markets and to highlight the connections between risk premiums and monetary policy.

1,997

2

neutral

1,515

Moreover, theory and intuition tell us that monetary credibility will be greatest when the central bank does what it is supposed to do: offset economic shocks to keep price pressures from building and thereby keep inflation itself low and stable.

2,006

1

hawkish

1,516

Modern quantitative approaches to risk measurement and risk management take as their starting point historical experience with market price fluctuations, which is statistically summarized in probability distributions.

2,020

2

neutral

1,517

A substantial increase in lending to nonprime borrowers contributed to the bulge in residential investment in 2004 and 2005, and the tightening of credit conditions for these borrowers likely accounts for some of the continued softening in demand we have seen this year.

2,005

2

neutral

1,518

Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee's longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices.

2,016

0

dovish

1,519

The emphasis was on providing currency and reserves to meet seasonal demands and on assisting banks in accommodating the credit needs of commerce and business.

2,005

0

dovish

1,521

The first driver is the long-term increase in the demand for currency and reserves.

2,013

0

dovish

1,522

survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

2,020

2

neutral

1,523

Job gains had been solid, on average, since the beginning of the year, and the unemployment rate had declined.

2,005

1

hawkish

1,524

But, as a consequence of low interest rates, the servicing requirement for that debt relative to homeowners' income is roughly in line with the historical average.

2,004

0

dovish

1,525

The upswing in M2 growth since late winter stemmed in part from the temporary effects of mortgage refinancing, which boosted liquid deposits over this period, though M2 was also buoyed by strong gains in nominal income.

2,012

0

dovish

1,526

However, the projected step-up in real GDP growth over the second half of this year was marked down a little, partly reflecting softer news on construction.

1,998

0

dovish

1,527

in turn, larger expected productivity advances and a lower cost of equity capital provided a further stimulus to investment.

2,006

2

neutral

1,528

For a variety of reasons, oil prices already had risen appreciably since the start of the year.

2,007

1

hawkish

1,529

This is yet another concerningly high reading, and it set another 40-year record high despite the expectation of many forecasters that inflation had peaked earlier in the year.

2,020

1

hawkish

1,530

Indeed, economic growth abroad was widely viewed as dependent to a significant extent on the performance of the U. S. economy.

2,022

2

neutral

1,531

Inflation had been subdued,

2,016

0

dovish

1,532

Although I expect these upward price pressures to ease after the temporary supply bottlenecks are resolved, the exact timing of that dynamic is uncertain.

2,006

1

hawkish

1,533

Spreads on risky private-sector debt reached very low levels, and damaging spillovers to the nonfinancial sector occurred in the form of unduly high real estate prices and excessive leverage by borrowers in the housing market.

2,006

1

hawkish

1,534

Moreover, the outlook for foreign economic activity also appeared a bit weaker.

2,002

2

neutral

1,535

In their review of developments in key sectors of the economy, members again emphasized the ongoing strength in household spending and its vital role in moderating the weakness in overall economic activity.

2,020

2

neutral

1,536

In addition, the Committee reaffirmed its intention to keep the target federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and retained its forward guidance that it anticipates that this exceptionally low range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored.

2,015

0

dovish

1,537

These participants preferred to wait until there was greater assurance that the transmission mechanism of monetary policy via financial markets and the supply of credit to households and businesses was working effectively.

2,002

2

neutral

1,538

There appears to have been some evolution in inflation-targeting regimes toward greater flexibility.

2,004

0

dovish

1,539

At the conclusion of the discussion, the Committee voted to authorize and direct the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, until it was instructed otherwise, to execute transactions in the System Account in accordance with the following domestic policy directive: "Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Federal Open Market Committee seeks monetary and financial conditions that will foster maximum employment and price stability.

2,009

0

dovish

1,540

Because inflation normally responds slowly to such shocks, inflation targeters could respond in any of three ways.

2,007

1

hawkish

1,541

Even with the improving labor market, I still hear from businesses that qualified workers are difficult to find, and labor shortages remain a drag on hiring and on economic growth.

1,996

0

dovish

1,542

Survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations remained stable,

2,000

2

neutral

1,543

With regard to our price-stability mandate,

2,000

2

neutral

1,544

Inflation has moved up in recent months, mainly reflecting higher prices for some commodities and imported goods.

2,012

1

hawkish

1,545

What modern monetary policymaking has not faced for quite some time, if ever, has been a major surge in innovation--matching, if not exceeding, the other great waves this century--followed by an apparent elevation of productivity growth.

2,022

0

dovish

1,546

In contrast, economic activity declined in Japan during the third quarter after a surge in the first half of the year.

2,018

2

neutral

1,547

This week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) took another significant step toward achieving our inflation objective by raising the Federal Funds rate target by 75 basis points.

2,004

1

hawkish

1,548

In essence, monetary credibility helps the central bank do its job, by inducing private sector participants also to take actions that help achieve the central bank's low inflation objective.

2,022

1

hawkish

1,549

increases in expected inflation will thus tend to promote greater actual inflation.

2,004

2

neutral

1,551

Total nonfarm payroll employment expanded at a solid pace in July and August.

2,013

1

hawkish

1,552

remained below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports.

2,016

0

dovish