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Dataset card Data Studio Files
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The Committee also reiterated that it would continue its asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability.
2,013
0
dovish
731
In contrast, M3 growth slowed considerably in April after a robust March advance.
2,018
2
neutral
732
several expected that declines in the foreign exchange value of the dollar in recent months would also likely help return inflation to 2 percent over the medium term.
2,003
1
hawkish
733
Moreover, broad equity price indexes had declined and borrowing costs for nonfinancial firms had increased, including a recent rise in corporate bond yields across most risk categories.
2,003
1
hawkish
734
that is, the Federal Reserve seeks to promote the two coequal objectives of maximum employment and price stability.
2,007
2
neutral
735
I mean, it really depends on how long it takes for wages and, more than that, prices to come down for inflation to come down.
2,019
1
hawkish
736
In the absence of such shocks, and assuming appropriate monetary policy, participants' economic projections generally showed growth picking up to a moderate pace and the unemployment rate declining somewhat next year.
2,022
1
hawkish
737
The staff also reported that in the leveraged loan market risk spreads had narrowed and nonprice terms had loosened further.
2,000
1
hawkish
738
We should first recognize that the form of the U.S. government is different than that of most inflation-targeting countries.
2,003
2
neutral
739
largely as a consequence of further increases in nominal labor compensation gains that would not be fully offset by growth in productivity.
2,000
0
dovish
740
The entire Committee is committed to achieving our 2 percent inflation objective over the December 16, 2015 medium term, just as we want to make sure that inflation doesn’t persist at levels above our Chair Yellen’s Press Conference FINAL 2 percent objective.
2,021
0
dovish
741
If we think that the potential growth rate of the economy is somewhere between, somewhere around 1.75 percent, 2.8 percent is strong economic growth.
2,021
0
dovish
742
By the same token, the rate of price inflation was lower than had been reported, consistent with the findings of a number of studies of distortions in published price data.
2,022
2
neutral
743
In these circumstances, the Committee believed that some further measured policy firming was likely to be needed to keep the risks to the attainment of both sustainable economic growth and price stability roughly in balance.
2,010
1
hawkish
744
The pace of job gains slowed and the unemployment rate held steady.
2,013
2
neutral
745
But I do think that—and I do think also that unemployment insurance benefits will run out in September, so to the extent that’s a factor, which is not clear, it will no longer be a factor fairly soon.
2,011
2
neutral
746
And, as I think all of us—having that expectation and that if the economy continued to progress along the lines that we expected and we continued to see the risks as balanced—do regard it as appropriate to gradually remove accommodation that’s in place by having several interest rate increases this year.
2,015
1
hawkish
747
Moreover, we should recognize that these disinflationary effects could dissipate or even be reversed in coming years.
2,021
0
dovish
748
Monetary policy clearly can do little about the first-round effects of a permanent rise in energy prices, which include both its direct impact on the energy component of overall consumer prices and the pass-through of higher energy costs into prices of non-energy goods and services.
2,021
1
hawkish
749
In my baseline view, while I do believe it will likely take some time for economic activity and the labor market to fully recover from the pandemic shock, I do project right now that the economy will begin to grow and that the unemployment rate will begin to decline starting in the second half of this year.
1,999
0
dovish
750
The gains in employment over July and August were generally seen as larger than anticipated.
2,000
1
hawkish
751
With underlying inflation running below 2 percent for many years and COVID contributing to a further decline, it is important that monetary policy support inflation expectations that are consistent with inflation centered on 2 percent over time.
2,022
0
dovish
752
Finally, I would like to note that the Committee strives to explain its monetary policy decisions as clearly as possible, and we continue to explore ways of enhancing the clarity of our public communications.
2,021
2
neutral
753
Core consumer inflation had moved lower,
2,000
0
dovish
754
In fact, the Federal Reserve’s upcoming Community Affairs Research Conference will feature several papers that explore these issues.5 Homeownership The important issue of loan pricing aside, expanded access to mortgage credit has helped fuel substantial growth in homeownership.
1,999
2
neutral
755
By contrast, economic activity in China and other developing countries showed greater buoyancy.
2,022
2
neutral
756
Participants pointed to potential interactions between financial stresses and the housing market contraction as the primary source of continuing downside risks to growth.
1,997
0
dovish
757
In coming months, as those earlier declines drop out of the calculation, inflation should move up closer to 2 percent and stabilize around that level over the medium term.
2,022
2
neutral
758
Nonetheless, with rising productivity and moderate wage gains likely continuing to help hold down unit labor costs, the outlook for subdued inflation remained promising, especially for the nearer term.
1,996
0
dovish
759
Answering this question is central to our outlook for both of our dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and price stability.
2,022
1
hawkish
760
Mortgage rates, corporate bond rates, and other yields and asset prices moved in sympathy, with important effects on the cost of borrowing and hence, presumably, on aggregate demand.
2,021
2
neutral
761
Several participants noted that the unseasonably warm weather of recent months added one more element of uncertainty to the interpretation of incoming data, and that this factor might account for a portion of the recent improvement in indicators of employment and housing.
2,017
2
neutral
762
Some participants suggested that shifts of funds from abroad into U. S. Treasury securities may have put downward pressure on term premiums; the shifts, in turn, may have reflected in part a reaction to declines in foreign sovereign yields in response to actual and anticipated monetary policy actions abroad.
2,009
2
neutral
763
As a further step in enhancing the clarity of our communications, the Committee recently decided to begin publishing information about participants’ assessments of appropriate monetary policy—that is, the path of policy that each participant judges as most likely to foster mandate-consistent outcomes for employment and inflation if the economy evolves as expected.
2,018
2
neutral
764
Mortgage credit conditions generally remained tight over the intermeeting period, though signs of easing continued to emerge amid further gains in house prices.
2,002
2
neutral
765
Here in the United States, my colleague Governor Mike Kelley has stated that we are likely to see some disruptions to economic activity because of Year 2000 problems but the effects are likely to be temporary and quickly reversed.
1,999
2
neutral
766
We expect the economy will continue to perform well, with the job market strengthening further and inflation rising to 2 percent over the next couple of years.
2,015
2
neutral
767
And it is not—it’s not exactly the same as watching global growth, where you see growth weakening, you see central banks and governments responding with fiscal policy, and you see growth strengthening, and you see a business cycle.
2,020
0
dovish
768
Future policy adjustments would depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.
2,016
2
neutral
769
A couple of participants remarked that the very low levels of inventories would likely be a factor supporting increases in production as demand continued to recover.
2,019
2
neutral
770
So the term “trend inflation”—usually there are a variety of statistical techniques that can be used to extract a trend from a series.
2,013
2
neutral
771
It was the year of synchronized global growth.
2,021
2
neutral
772
While there were no current indications that inflation might be accelerating and no policy move was called for at this time, the members saw a need for continuing vigilance.
2,006
2
neutral
773
Recently, however, incoming information has suggested that the baseline outlook for real activity in 2008 has worsened and the downside risks to growth have become more pronounced.
2,004
0
dovish
774
August 26, 2022 Monetary Policy and Price Stability Chair Jerome H. Powell At “Reassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy,†an economic policy symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming Share Watch Live Thank you for the opportunity to speak here today.
2,022
2
neutral
775
But there’s also a role for monetary policy.
2,014
2
neutral
776
Looking beyond the near term, the members anticipated that as the prevailing uncertainties began to diminish, the economy's resiliency abetted by broadly accommodative monetary and fiscal polices and the continuation of a strong uptrend in productivity would underpin a gradual economic recovery.
2,004
0
dovish
777
Returns on indexed bonds are tied to forecasts of specific published price indexes, which may or may not reflect the market's judgment of the future purchasing power of money.
2,020
2
neutral
778
The FOMC's primary monetary policy tool is its target range for the federal funds rate.
2,003
2
neutral
779
As a result, most market interest rates rose somewhat in the period after the November 16 meeting.
2,013
1
hawkish
780
Were we to introduce an interest rate rule, how would we judge the meaning of a rule that posits a rate far above or below the current rate?
2,003
2
neutral
781
For all these conceptual uncertainties and measurement problems, a specific numerical inflation target would represent an unhelpful and false precision.
2,000
2
neutral
782
The stock market soared, and--remarkably enough--core inflation moderated.
2,001
2
neutral
783
Moreover, the resulting robust gains in labor productivity have been well ahead of compensation growth and have dramatically boosted corporate profits.
2,006
0
dovish
784
With the boost from these factors fading, real GDP growth was projected to step down noticeably in 2023 and to be roughly equal to potential output growth in 2023 and 2024.
2,007
0
dovish
785
Several participants reported feedback from business contacts who were delaying hiring until the economic and regulatory outlook became more certain and who indicated that they expected to meet any near-term increase in the demand for their products without boosting employment
2,014
2
neutral
786
The first lesson is that central banks can and should take responsibility for delivering low and stable inflation.
2,004
2
neutral
787
The Committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings in light of incoming information and is prepared to adjust those holdings as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability.
1,998
0
dovish
788
Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low
2,020
0
dovish
789
What I do want to share with you is how the equity market fits into my thinking about monetary policy.
2,000
2
neutral
790
Real outlays for office and computing equipment continued to grow rapidly as prices of personal computers and networking equipment remained on a steep downtrend.
2,008
2
neutral
791
The literature on this topic extends at least as far back as William Brainard’s original paper on uncertainty and policy almost forty years ago.7 Brainard’s analysis showed that if policymakers are uncertain about how real activity and inflation will be affected over time by monetary actions, they should be less aggressive in responding to changes in economic conditions than would be the case if they knew the true model of the economy.
2,005
2
neutral
792
I would like to address two aspects of the issue of underemployment of minorities: first, the implications of ignoring the potential that already exists and, second, the need to encourage young people to seek the types of education and training that will meet the demands of work in the twenty-first century.
2,001
0
dovish
793
So unless productivity accelerates further, its disinflationary effect should continue to erode for a time.
2,022
0
dovish
794
We indicated that, with inflation running persistently below 2 percent, our policy will aim to achieve inflation outcomes that keep inflation expectations well anchored at our 2 percent longer-run goal.
2,003
0
dovish
795
If episodic recurrences of ruptured confidence are integral to the way our economy and our financial markets work now and in the future, it has significant implications for risk management and, by implication, macroeconomic modeling and monetary policy.
2,001
2
neutral
796
Another factor that has contributed to the swing toward current-account surplus among the non-industrialized nations in the past few years is the sharp rise in oil prices.
2,006
1
hawkish
797
Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.
2,014
2
neutral
798
Today, the Federal Reserve's duties fall into four general areas--some that would have been familiar to the central bankers in the Fed's early years and some that would have been unfamiliar: maintaining the stability of the financial system and containing systemic risk that may arise in financial markets supervising and regulating banking organizations to ensure the safety and soundness of the nation's banking and financial system and to protect consumers from harm in their use of credit and banking services playing a major role in operating and overseeing the nation's payment system, including providing certain financial services to financial institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign official institutions conducting monetary policy in pursuit of stable prices and maximum sustainable employment We have an all-too-recent example of the Fed as a source of financial stability in its response to the financial aftermath of the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, which occurred just before I joined the Board in December 2001.
2,019
2
neutral
799
However, some areas that were affected by the slowdown in the energy sector experienced house price declines or increases in mortgage delinquency rates.
2,008
0
dovish
800
Household expenditures on new homes were likewise at an elevated level, although members reported weakness in some price segments and geographic areas of the housing market.
2,001
1
hawkish
801
Expectations of price increases over the near-term--specifically, over the next year--have, in fact, risen noticeably on the heels of the actual increase in inflation.
1,996
1
hawkish
802
Slump in foreign domestic demand I would like to turn now to developments at the global level that may have helped to widen the U.S. current account deficit.
2,020
1
hawkish
803
Members still saw the economic expansion continuing, and most believed that inflation was likely to stabilize near recent low readings in coming quarters and then gradually rise toward levels they consider more consistent with the Committee's dual mandate for maximum employment and price stability.
1,997
2
neutral
804
Inflation Targeting and Central Bank Behavior," Federal Reserve Bank of New York, mimeo.
2,021
2
neutral
805
The contemplated reserve conditions are expected to be consistent with considerable moderation in the growth in M2 and M3 over coming months.
2,018
2
neutral
806
In response to an unanticipated movement in spending and hence the quantity of money demanded, a small variation in interest rates would be sufficient to bring money back to path but not to correct the deviation in spending.
2,005
0
dovish
807
But this belief will persist only as long as we on the Federal Open Market Committee continue to ratify the public’s expectations that inflation will remain low and stable.
2,006
1
hawkish
808
These concerns were centered around the fact that corporate borrowers could no longer raise funds in the bond or commercial paper markets at reasonable prices or, at some times and for some borrowers, at all.
2,003
2
neutral
809
We have a three-part baseline projection, which involves increasing growth that’s picking up over time as fiscal drag is reduced, continuing gains in the labor market, and inflation moving back towards objective.
2,020
2
neutral
810
The Committee, based on its assessment at each meeting, has felt comfortable saying that, based on its assessment of those factors, it considers that it will be likely appropriate to maintain the current target range for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if inflation remains below the 2 percent objective.
2,016
2
neutral
811
As a consequence, a sustainable, non-inflationary expansion is likely to involve some moderation in the growth of economic activity to a rate more consistent with the expansion of the nation’s underlying productive capacity.
2,017
1
hawkish
812
Higher interest rates are working to temper demand and bring it into better alignment with supply, which is still constrained.
2,021
1
hawkish
814
Participants agreed that the path of the economy would depend significantly on the course of the virus and that the ongoing public health crisis would continue to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term.
2,004
0
dovish
815
Unfortunately, from the point of view of both the analyst and the policymaker, the link between an asset's price and the structure of its return is hard to pin down, as it typically embodies complex factors that are inherently difficult to measure, such as expected future earnings, riskiness, and risk aversion.
2,005
2
neutral
816
Nonetheless, the current account deficit continued to grow as a result of the surge in U.S. investment and productivity and the associated capital inflows seeking the higher U.S. rates of return.
2,003
1
hawkish
817
A Framework for Analyzing the Growth of Labor ProductivityA great success story for the American economy has been the resurgence of productivity growth that began around 1995.1 From 1973 to 1995, labor productivity in the nonfarm business sector increased at an annual rate of 1-1/2 percent.
1,999
0
dovish
818
The average rate of growth of CRE loans at banks continued to be strong in October and November.
2,009
1
hawkish
819
Moreover, economic theory indicates that the equilibrium level of short-term real interest rates would likely remain low relative to estimates of its level before the financial crisis if trend growth of total factor productivity does not pick up and if demographic projections for slow growth in working-age populations are borne out.
2,003
0
dovish
820
Key factors that influence consumer spending--including a low unemployment rate, ongoing gains in real labor compensation, and still elevated measures of households' net worth--were supportive of a pickup in consumer spending to a solid pace in the near term.
2,005
1
hawkish
821
Some occasions call for significant swings in currency or reserves because of seasonal demands for cash and loans.
2,017
2
neutral
822
Most other market interest rates declined further on balance over the period in an atmosphere of greater volatility in financial markets.
2,021
0
dovish
823
But if our assessment is correct that inflation is temporary, it would be unwise for us to take actions that might slow the recovery prematurely by trying to stay ahead of inflation, when our best estimate is that we are not far behind.
2,000
0
dovish
824
In the September Senior Credit Officer Opinion Survey on Dealer Financing Terms (SCOOS), dealers indicated, on net, that they loosened credit terms applicable to several important classes of counterparties and types of collateral over the past three months amid increased demand for funding for most types of securities covered in the survey.
2,022
2
neutral
825
the anticipated decline in the unemployment rate was somewhat slower than in the previous projection.
1,997
0
dovish
826
That transition itself could help bring inflation down, because, presumably, people would spend a little less on goods while they start spending more on travel and all sorts of travel services and things like that.
2,016
2
neutral
827
However, several participants pointed out that the 3-month change in that index had firmed recently, signaling some improvement in the inflation outlook.
2,008
2
neutral
828
In the labor market, about half of the 22 million jobs that were lost in the spring have been restored, and the unemployment rate has fallen since April by nearly 7 percentage points to 7.9 percent as of September.
2,000
0
dovish
829
In the modal outlook, monetary policy tightening to temper demand, in combination with improvements in supply, is expected to reduce demand–supply imbalances and reduce inflation over time.10 The real yield curve is now in solidly positive territory at all
2,000
1
hawkish
830
That ex post relationship, the correlation between actual--instead of intended--domestic saving and domestic investment was the object of the seminal work by Feldstein and Horioka a quarter century ago.4 Without the evident worldwide fall in home bias over the past decade, noted earlier, the United States would not have been able to finance its recent current account deficits, and, accordingly, these deficits would have been smaller.
2,002
2
neutral