Wednesday, February 4, 2009

A remaining free agent breakdown...

List from MLB Trade Rumors:

Break it down, shall we.

Gary Bennett (37): Listen, he's an ex-Brewer catcher. That means you really should move along.
Johnny Estrada (33): Gary Bennett wishes he was fly like this.
Sal Fasano (37): Like the mustache, his time in the sun just might be over.
Paul Lo Duca (37) - Type B, not offered arb: He still could generate a bit of batting average, but he's nothing more than a poor man's Mike Redmond at this point.
Ivan Rodriguez (37) - Type B, not offered arb: His ability to send the ball on a frozen rope keeps him from being just another victim despite his big name.

First basemen
Miguel Cairo (35): His speed isn't useless, but if he's gonna be bringing a .630 OPS, he really aught to bring his infielders glove. Seattle may have been his end.
Doug Mientkiewicz (35): His glove is spectacular. His offense is below replacement level. He's not going to hit .310 anymore. Thus let him pass.
Kevin Millar (37): Culled himself a decent career, and he did have 20 dingers last season. But he seems to be done.
Richie Sexson (34): Once a superstar, now nothing more than a spot pinch hitter versus mediocre lefties.
Mark Sweeney (39): He just may never get to be the Lenny Harris that white people like.
Daryle Ward (34): The guy who could actually be a decent first baseman if he had to start for a month. Just saying, he's great insurance.

Second basemen
Ray Durham (37): He may be worth a contract. He still rapped doubles and had decent speed. It's fading, but he could still be worth a win with his play.
Damion Easley (39): Mediocrity that can play seven positions is still medicority.
Mark Grudzielanek (39) - Type B, offered arb: Could still be the .300/.333/.395 guy. But he's nothing more than injuries and singles at this point. Joins Jason Isringhausen in the Hall of Pretty Good Class.
Orlando Hudson (31) - Type A, offered arb: He does have the .810 OPS for a middle infielder. But he had a wrist injury. And has a hamstring problem. It's a lot higher risk than you think.

Orlando Cabrera (34) - Type A, offered arb: Great glove, .720 OPS., there's a chance he can be league average offensively and mighty as a defender. That being said? Still not worth two picks.

Third basemen
Rich Aurilia (37): Versatile toast is still toast.
Joe Crede (31): If he had a different agent? He'd be signed by now. Bad back, struggles versus lefties. But with no compensation? A Mike Cameron contract could yield a nice return.
Nomar Garciaparra (35): Ready to start his superrace of fragile athletes.
Ramon Martinez (36): Earned a pension bringing the glove to shitty teams.

Left fielders
Moises Alou (42) - Type B, not offered arb: He can still hit. If he doesn't tear his hamstring first.
Garret Anderson (37) - Type B, not offered arb: His game is pretty strictly offense. And his offense has needed July and second half heroics to be worth something. And that why he is not worth much.

Adam Dunn (29) - Type A, not offered arb: His weaknesses are too glaring. This isn't something a cool cat GM cannot handle. But 14 million dollars for a rich man's Russell Branyan is not something many teams can afford right now.
Luis Gonzalez (41) - Type B, not offered arb: He still takes walks. That's it. He has nothing else for you. His offense is Craig Counsellesque. Yeah. I said it.
Jay Payton (36): This way lies peril.
Manny Ramirez (37) - Type A, offered arb: Scott Boras is going to leave him unemployed. Three years of injury prone. One year of crazy. He won't take 20+ million as a 37 year old in this shit economy? Big mistake.

Center fielders
Jim Edmonds (39): You know what? If you're looking for a spot center-fielder or even a Center Fielder versus righties? Go here. If you have a good ballpark? He can bring it. Hank Steinbrenner? Sign this man!
Andruw Jones (32): He was supposed to be Baseball Jesus! He turned out to be nothing more than a rich man's Ruben Rivera!

Right fielders
Bobby Abreu (35) - Type A, not offered arb: His walk rate is falling. His steals rate is falling. There are cracks forming in the house of Abreu. And for a Type A Free Agent? That's why he's not here yet.
Emil Brown (34): A lefty half of a platoon. He's hitting more flyballs. Steroids would make him good.
Ken Griffey Jr. (39) - Type B, not offered arb: He needs to be the designated hitter archetype. A team that gives him that can get a solid majority of a player.

Cliff Floyd (36): He can still be solid for 250-300 At Bats.
Frank Thomas (41) - Type B, not offered arb: He doesn't have to prove anything. He can retire and be a Hall of Famer in 2014. But if he takes a bench job? Don't sleep on it.
Jose Vidro (34): He was good once. But an injury prone DH coming off a .613 OPS Season equals no.

Starting pitchers
Kris Benson (33): His arm is gone. His soul is too.
Paul Byrd (38) - Type B, offered arb: Needs more steroids.
Tom Glavine (43): Hall of Famer Circa 2015.
Livan Hernandez (34): He's not 34! And he's eaten one too many inning!
Orlando Hernandez (43): 100 innings of starting pitching. Maybe an elderly middle reliever?
Chuck James (27): Take a flier on a two year deal, you may have something. He was full gimp in 2008.
Jason Jennings (30): His injuries are a bad sign, because he's stuck in his prime. And his Age 27 season was pretty good.
Jon Lieber (39): Could still be an end man on the roation. But versus left-handed hitters? It's going, going, gone goodbye.
Braden Looper (34) - Type B, not offered arb: Worst case? An expensive fifth starter. Best case, he brings a little something more to the table.
Rodrigo Lopez (33): Still best known for "This isn't about strikes! This is about Rodrigo Lopez!" that someone in the Dugout wrote for him.
Pedro Martinez (37): Still smart, but the thunder in his arm is gone. Long gone.
Mark Mulder (31): Once great, but his arm seems to have failed him. He may yet return, but not until he takes a Minor League Deal.
John Parrish (31): He's lefthanded. But his ability comes from getting out righthanders. He doesn't get many outs, but he can get the righties out better.
Odalis Perez (32): He may have had a weaker second half in terms of real stats, but if you look hard at him? You'll notice he actually was better but less lucky. I'm not saying he'll get great, but he just might get good. Lefty primes can be from 31 to 35 you know.
Sidney Ponson (32): He's not worth your time. He's not going to get to that potential.
Kenny Rogers (44): The worldwide leader in dickishness passes the torch.
Curt Schilling (42): The Bert Blyleven debate version 2.0 shall commence in 2014. Be there or be square.
Ben Sheets (30) - Type A, offered arb: Protip? Vest his option at 190 innings. He has not managed that but once in his prime.
Randy Wolf (32) - Type B, not offered arb: September won't happen again. He has had a 90 inning spike in his pitching. And he is injury prone. He's not a bad pitcher, but if you ask to get 190 IP? Won't happen.

Luis Ayala (31) - Type B, not offered arb: He's regaining his skills after his TJ. It's slow going, but if you sign him, you might be potentially be surprised.
Joe Beimel (32) - Type B, not offered arb: A solid lefty one out guy. But he's not nearly as good as his walk year may have indicated. Thus letting him wait is cool.
Joe Borowski (38): Derring-do and grit is not a pitching statistic.
Shawn Chacon (31): Not crazy. You're the one that's crazy. All he wanted was a Pepsi!
Chad Cordero (27): His labrum is like a wino eating grapes. Dude you have to wait.
Juan Cruz (30) - Type A, offered arb: Walk rate. He does not have the command to be a closer. And if you want to give up two picks? You want a closer coming back.
Elmer Dessens (37): Career over. Thanks for playing.
Brendan Donnelly (37): May yet have one more good year. A minor league deal would be potentially a good value.
Scott Elarton (33): A giant ball of suck. There Is No Such Thing As a Pitching Prospect.
Randy Flores (33): He's a power lefty, but he is mehtastic. Pass on him.
Keith Foulke (35): Right shoulder inflammation means that he is a possibility for moving on to the next life again. Even if he's doesn't want to this time.
Eric Gagne (33) - Type B, not offered arb: He is injury prone and just kind of bad because he couldn't trust his skills as a hot minor league prospect.
Tom Gordon (41): Coming off a bad elbow, there is no reason for him to return.
Jason Isringhausen (36) - Type B, not offered arb: He's gained entry into the Hall of Pretty Good. The savvy Mets fan has to wonder what might have been. Izzy, Pulse, and Paul was supposed to save the world.
Tyler Johnson (27): May resurface. He's a lefty one-out guy coming off rotator cuff surgery. Then again, he may not.
Aquilino Lopez (34): He's due to have a second consecutive lucky season in his career.
Will Ohman (31): Really shouldn't be out still. His second half was bad luck. If someone wants a LOOGY? He would be great, but he can be a Lefty Middleman. Great bargain.
Al Reyes (38): Lefties kill him, but not as much as Road, night games on Astroturf. This means he'd be awesome as a Blue Jay or a Twin.
Dennys Reyes (32) - Type B, offered arb: Surprisingly great as a one inning guy. That being said? His career has been an inverse Saberhagen. A.K.A. Even years are gold.
Ricardo Rincon (39): He may not be the stud of the Moneyball trade era anymore. But hey. Free lefty.
Rudy Seanez (40) - Type B, not offered arb: The second half is about to become the rule than the exception.
Julian Tavarez (36): Will resurface. Evil always does.
Mike Timlin (43): Not many people can swing a bounce-back season at age 41. But how can he do it when he's 43? Old man needs to float along the river.
Ron Villone (39): Still has power in his left arm, but his skills to pay the bills are gone. Better lefties are out there.
Kip Wells (32): Chad Paronto is really a better pitcher than he is.
Matt Wise (33): His arm is gimpy. His shoulder cost him last season. Never the same after he beaned a Cincinnati Red.
Jamey Wright (34): Still could be passable in middle relief. If you take a gander at his deep statistical analysis, his second half was worth about three runs per inning of bad luck.

Nobody really wants to give up that #1 draft choice anymore. It's not crazy. But this conservatism means good players with questions are something that are going to be unemployed coming into March.

Or in Manny's case? Septurary!


DTurner said...

You are an idiot. 40 40 100 100 .400 OBP guys are not anything at alllike Russel Branyan. Fool.

Andrew said...

Umm...did I mention Rich Man's Russell Branyan?

Yeah, Adam Dunn's doubles power is better and he takes more walks. Christ, I never said that he was a spare part. I like Branyan.

But the approach is similar. Low average, solid to great isolated OBP, great power.

And who had a higher OPS last season? It wasn't Dunn, classy gentleman.

Jay said...

Do guys lose their Type A/B designates at some point if they remain unsigned? Or do you have to give up the picks even if you sign, say, Abreu in, say, July?

Andrew said...

Jay: If it gets past draft day, any team that signs a pick with a Type designate does not have to give up a pick. Like whoever decides to sign Ben Sheets, odds are they won't lose a pick.