Louisville, Ky.

Orb was the morning-line favorite—a bad omen. Associated Press

In the buildup to the Kentucky Derby, the favorite has been Orb. Orb, Orb, Orb. That's the word. He enters Saturday's Run for the Roses on a four-race winning streak, including the March 30 Florida Derby.

This horse has a sterling pedigree (sired by Malibu Moon with a mare sired by Unbridled), a Hall of Fame trainer (Shug McGaughey) and the hottest jockey in the country (Joel Rosario). His morning-line odds were set at 7-2, and he deserves it.

But here at the Derby, as you may have heard a few thousand times, there is a dark side to betting the favorite. Given the general volatility of thoroughbred racing, and the fact that the horses are, by rule, 3 years old, the favorite has only managed to win four times in the last 33 years (or 12% of the time, but who's counting). Bearing that in mind, you might want to look at a few Orb alternatives.

To predict the winner, The Wall Street Journal employed one of the most logical forms of analysis: elimination. Here's our take on which horse is likely to win the race, based on our determination of which horses aren't.


Just happy to be here

This year's field includes three horses—Golden Soul (50-1), Giant Finish (50-1) and Falling Sky (50-1)—that appear to be significantly overmatched. (Another no-hoper, Black Onyx, has been scratched.) Long shots have won twice, but it is rare: Only two horses have won the Derby at odds of 50-1 or more—Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.

This Isn't Ireland

Another horse that is unlikely to withstand the test of this 1 1/4-mile race on dirt is Irish entrant Lines of Battle (30-1). Trainer Aidan O'Brien has won seven Breeders' Cup races, but he is 0-4 in the Derby.

The Understudies

There are four horses that could make up a band called the Understudies. Their trainers each have multiple horses in the race—and these aren't their superstars. This group includes D. Wayne Lukas's Oxbow (30-1), Ken McPeek's Frac Daddy (50-1) and two horses in Todd Pletcher's stable of five Derby starters—Palace Malice (20-1) and Charming Kitten (20-1).

The Derby Scene


Sun Up on Churchill Downs

In the week before the Kentucky Derby, horses and workers are up early at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky.

A horse with a rider atop walked to the track for a morning workout at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., Tuesday. AP

The Overrated

The average odds of the last 20 Derby winners is 15-1, which puts Mylute (15-1) right in the sweet spot. But a close look at his record suggests that when he's faced tougher competition, he hasn't had enough to get to the winner's circle. His rider, Rosie Napravnik, the race's only female jockey, is a crowd favorite and will draw bettors. Without her aboard, Mylute would be a much bigger price.

A Homebody

Vyjack (15-1) has an impressive record: four wins in his five-race career. The only concern is he has barely had to leave his barn. He has raced at only one track—New York's Aqueduct. The gelding will likely discover that Churchill Downs is a long way from Queens.

Deep Closers

Java's War (15-1) hesitated at the start of his last race in the Blue Grass Stakes but rallied to win in dramatic fashion, going from last to first. To make that move around 18 other horses is a lot more daunting. Normandy Invasion (12-1) will be looking to make a similar closing move. The knock on the colt by Tapit is he has only one career win. Revolutionary (10-1) enters on a three-race win streak and has jockey Calvin Borel aboard. Three-time Derby winner Borel guided aforementioned long shot Mine That Bird from last to first in the mud to upset the 2009 field. And Saturday's forecast in Louisville calls for rain.

A Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde Horse

Overanalyze (15-1) has been pretty consistent…at being inconsistent. He has followed up three wins with a clunker in his subsequent race. He enters the Derby following a win in the Arkansas Derby. What's next? Follow the pattern.

The Couch Potato

He has a four-time Derby winning trainer in Lukas, but Will Take Charge (20-1) hasn't raced since March 16. The rest won't help him as he begins to tire.

Too Much Speed to Burn

Goldencents (5-1) will have all eyes on him: He is trained by last year's winning trainer, Doug O'Neill, and he is partly owned by Rick Pitino, coach of the reigning national-champion Louisville basketball team. Goldencents likely will be on or near the lead early on. As is the issue with all speed horses in the Derby, keeping the lead from gate to wire is tough: Since 1990, only War Emblem has done it.

Former Big Man on Campus

Verrazano (4-1) is undefeated in five races. And he has done nothing wrong. He came in on a high, but he has taken a hit in popularity. He is up against history: The last horse to win the Derby who didn't race as a 2-year-old was Apollo in 1882. Let's assume it will be 131 years and counting after Saturday.

Which means the Derby winner is: Itsmyluckyday

Yes, he will have to battle Orb. The last time these two contenders faced each other, Itsmyluckyday (15-1) lost by 2 3/4 lengths. But we think he has the goods. In his loss to Orb in the Florida Derby, he was coming off a two-month vacation. Itsmyluckyday's running style is to stay closer to the front, just behind the pacesetters. He is likely to make his move before Orb switches to a higher gear. And in terms of betting, would you rather go home with what 15-1 could buy you than what you get from 7-2? Steak dinner or Happy Meal? You choose.

Write to Pia Catton at pia.catton@wsj.com and Jim Chairusmi at jim.chairusmi@wsj.com