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Israel's threat from within

Ben Knight reported this story on Sunday, September 25, 2011 08:00:00

ELIZABETH JACKSON: This week, Palestinians managed to put their cause front and centre of the annual meeting of the United Nations General Assembly, by asking its members to recognise Palestine as their newest member.

And it's got, on paper at least, a lot of support should it come to a vote, although the US will stop it in the Security Council.

It's the latest blow in what's been a disastrous couple of years for Israel on the diplomatic front.

Israel faces deep and serious challenges that threaten its very existence as a state. But as our Middle East correspondent Ben Knight says, Israelis are not facing up to the biggest threat of all, one that comes from within their own society.

BEN KNIGHT: Let's imagine for a moment that at this time next year, by some miracle, Benjamin Netanyahu and Mahmoud Abbas are meeting on the White House lawn to sign the accord that will create the nation of Palestine.

All disagreements between the two countries are forever resolved, from where the borders will lie, to how they will share Jerusalem as their capital.

Now let's also assume that all Muslim and Arab nations will keep their promise and recognise the state of Israel, and that the militants of Hamas, Hezbollah, and Islamic Jihad are consigned to the dustbin of history.

Israel is finally free to realise its full potential as a nation. Or to put it another way, Israel is finally free to let its own internal divisions and hatreds tear it apart.

If you think Israelis and Palestinians don't see eye to eye, the gulf between secular Israelis and the ultra orthodox religious is probably just as wide.

If you go to Tel Aviv on a Saturday morning you'll see one version of Israel - secular, middle class sun-worshippers sitting in trendy beachside cafes, munching on bacon and eggs, or hummus and salad.

And then, if you go on the same Saturday morning just 40 minutes up the highway to Jerusalem, you'll visit an entirely different country. Here there are no cars. The streets are closed off with police barriers, as ultra-orthodox Jews in their black overcoats and fur hats walk to the Western Wall to pray.

And no, the two groups don't get along.

Secular Israelis work, pay taxes, and serve in the army. Ultra-orthodox, or Haredi Jews, don't.

Secular Israelis are prepared to die for their country in battle, but they have to travel outside it to get married if they want a civil ceremony.

Not surprisingly that's a pretty sore point, especially as Israel's demographic balance is shifting fast.

Secular couples have, on average, around two children. But Haredi couples have closer to eight or nine.

And that is changing the very identity of Israel, away from the secular, socialist and civil society it was created as back in 1948, into something quite different.

To see it in action, you only need to take a peek inside an Israeli school.

Israeli's government funds three different streams of education - regular state schools, ultra-orthodox religious schools, and Israeli Arab schools.

And back in 1960, only around 15 per cent of Israeli children went to religious or Arab schools.

That figure is now around 50 per cent. In 30 years, it will be almost 80 per cent. And that is a frightening statistic for the nation of Israel.

Arab Israelis have long had lower education, and higher unemployment levels than Jewish Israelis.

But the real problem is in the religious stream because in religious schools, children don't learn mathematics or science or English. They only learn the bible, all day, every day. And when they grow up Haredi men are expected to, and do, continue that bible study for the rest of their lives.

They don't work and it's all funded by the taxpayers. The taxpayers are secular Israelis.

What does that mean for the future of the state? Well, if the figures are to be believed, in less than 30 years, Israel will have a population where the majority that either can't or won't join the workforce, and that will put an increasing and impossible burden on the secular minority who will have to pay the taxes and serve in the army.

This in the country that likes to call itself the Start-up Nation. Israel prides itself on its high tech sector. It has the ideas, the inventors, and the entrepreneurs, but already, it's having to import workers from overseas to fill those high tech jobs because there simply aren't enough educated Israelis in the job market.

It's not sustainable. Israelis know about it, and sometimes they talk about it, but Israel's government does nothing. It's just too hard, especially because the political power of the ultra-religious is growing. It's almost impossible to form a government in Israel today without making the Haredi Party a senior coalition partner.

Opposition and resentment is growing. Middle-class, taxpaying, secular Israelis are already so angry about just the cost of living here and the fact that their children cannot afford to buy or rent a home, that they've recently taken to the streets in massive protests.

The government is paying attention, but it's hard to see how any Israeli government, however courageous, is going to be able to turn the ship around without committing political suicide.

Now let's imagine that in a year from now, Benjamin Netanyahu and Mahmoud Abbas are not on the White House lawn, they havn't reached a peace deal.

All of Israel's current problems are still in place but Israel is even more isolated internationally, the Palestinians are even more frustrated, and all are sitting in the midst of an ever more unstable and chaotic region.

This week's United Nations assembly might have put Israel and Palestine back in the headlines, but it won't solve the conflict. And soon enough, it will all fade from view again.

And all the while, behind the scenes, Israel's demographic time bomb is still ticking away.

This is Ben Knight in Jerusalem for Correspondents Report.


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