

Catalonia’s election

Trouble ahead

The ruling party does badly, but is heading for more clashes with Madrid

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Readers' comments


Michael James Blair

Humiliation? Please, don't lie about Catalonia. I thought 'The Economist' was a serious magazine.

2/3 of the New Parliament is for the Independence, and most of Catalan People Too!

romulo in reply to Michael James Blair

Pull the other one, it's got bells on.

You count UDC as pro-independence when in fact it is against, so really you just have 21 + 37 + (maybe) 3 as outright secessionists. Less than half.

You know perfectly well that the catalans will NOT vote for independence if it means leaving the EU.

So don't try convincing people otherwise, at least not on this site; you haven't a chance of success.

Juan Galofre

I would thank the economist would base a reporter in Catalonia to write about its situation. Otherwise a title for the article like "Trouble ahead for Spanish p.m. Mariano Rajoy" would be more appropiate.


Does the anonymous writer of this article really think that Ciutadans is left-wing? Seriously, "The Economist" needs to stop writing from the Valle de los Caídos and have a correspondent in Barcelona. I don't think it has ever apologized for criticizing the Catalan Government banning bullfighting. And a few more clearly catalanophibic articles have followed since.

romulo in reply to Jeneralizimo

Who are you trying to convince?

After nearly 8 years of existence it seems hard to believe that there is anybody still left who seriously thinks that the Citizens party is anything but left of centre.

The Citizens Party was formed by mainly ex-socialist militants who were in disagreement with the nationalist turn taken by the Socialist Party of Catalonia (PSC). The party's political stance is described (in spanish) here:- http://www.ciudadanos-cs.org/statico/pdf/ideario.pdf

For more information about this party read (in english) the wikipedia article:- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ciutadans.

I consider the article to be extremely well-balanced and factual.


To whoever wants to understand the meaning of the catalan elections and the importance of the catalan pro-independence movement, I strongly recommend this video (it is in english) .


Do countries commit suicide? Not Catalonia. But Spain looks likes to prefer this option instead of seating and talking the friendly way out of my country that would benefit both.
No options the waters of the rivers flowing upstream. Know that TE?


We have a dream: freedom for Catalonia. 5,5 or 6 every 10 catalan people (and spanish citizens that live in Catalonia) want the freedom for Catalonia.

romulo in reply to JP79

Catalonia is already free. It also has the largest autonomy of any regional government in Europe bar Flanders.

It is so free that it is able to break the law and ignore supreme and constitutional court rulings that oblige it to comply with the law. You also forget that very nearly 100% of all catalans are spanish citizens living in Catalonia.

Catalonia has the same right to declare itself independent as Essex has. (i.e. none whatsoever).


I only have a dessire.... Let catalan people try his future.
Why our rights must be less than another countries?

I'm not spanish, I'm Catalan.

If Catalonia was spain, why spanish gived north Catalonia to France? Why Catalan language is not official into spanish state? etc... They don't let us any reasson to feel spanish.

Excuse my english

G65KRhUanZ in reply to guest-ljaeoiw

Sir, you are mistaken. In a short-lived revolt by catalan peasants in the XVII century, the "independentists" became allies with the French to try to attain independence, and gave them north Catalonia to France in return. How ironic...
In any case, apart of the constant misrepresentation of history by pro-independence supporters, what I think is more worrying is the misrepresentation of the proposed process for independence. It is presented as a democratic process, and listening to the people who push it, it is hinted (when not overtly said) that those who oppose it are antidemocratic. But it so happens that democracy can occur in many ways, not only in the way that pro-independence people want. And it is important to notice that the way the process is proposed is doctored to obtained the result of independence. Allow me to show some examples of how democratic can be the position of people who oppose the indepedence referendum, and how the process is guided to a single outcome:
- In order to change the structure of a country, it may seem reasonable to expect that all the citizens of the country should have a say. To change the structure of Spain (which is what would happen if Catalonia seceded), it would seem sensible that all Spaniards should vote. It is also what is stipualted in the Constitution, and it also makes sense from a historic point of view, having been Spain a sovereign coutry for centuries. I do not want to say that this is the only interpretation, but definitely it has merit and is not undemocratic. A philosopher recently commented that granting a part to decide independently is already granting independence before the vote. I have to also say that I don't consider undemocratic the proposal to have only the catalans vote. I with they had the same respecto for those who disagreed with them.
- Pro-independence people say that catalans should have the right to vote apart because they have a different culture. But it is curious that over the last decades those same people have claimed that catalan culture extends beyond Catalonia (including several neighbouring regions in Spain). When it comes to decide who votes, though, they don't want to include the ones who don't live in Catalonia. Apparently because they think they could never win a vote if all were included. It seems that who votes is decided according on the expected outcome, and not on any reasonable criterion. That does not seem to me very objective.
- Pro-independence people claim that Spaniards cannot force the catalans to be Spanish. But they would be very happy to have a smaller percetage of catalans force the rest of catalanas not to be Spanish. It should be noted that this is saying that 85% of Spaniards cannot force a status on 15% of them, but, say, 60% of catalans can do it on 40% of catalans. It doesn't seem very equitable. They criticize the people of Spain who want to keep Spain united as old-regime junkies, but at the same time they don't seem to be willing to split Catalonia between the people who want to remain Spanish and those who don't (I'm not sure about the practicality, but I'm talking about the principles underneath). For them, Catalonia is indivisible, Spain is not. Again, the criterion is applied at will.
- And finally, there is the issue of "listening to what the people want". Quebec is a good example for this: pro-independence parties pushed for an independence vote in 1980. Since the result was negative, they pushed for anothre one in 1995. Since it was no again, they plan to ask for another one, when the "conditions are right". It seems that the process of listening to the people consists on asking again and again until the "right" answer comes out. Once that happens, I bet it will never be asked again, from what has happened in countries that have seceded. I think a system for listening to the people should treat al outcomes equally. But this does not seem to be the case.
So, my main criticism is to the process: the way the pro-independence parties want to do it, and the underlying principle that "the end justifies the means": the process is tailored to obtain what they want.

Vics Booming in reply to G65KRhUanZ

So if, say, if the british want to leave the EU, they should not be allowed to vote alone because it would affect the rest of Europeans?. Shall we all vote in a british referendum? Nonsense. The Spanish nationalist are very creative but only when it is about curtailing catalan freedom.

G65KRhUanZ in reply to Vics Booming

Your example is quite good, because it shows the prevalence of the use of hand-picked examples to compare with the current situation in Catalonia. Of course the UK could vote to leave the EU. But we could set several other examples, with a different outcome. For example (no pun intended): could the financial district of London vote to leave UK and become a new country? I'm sure they're tired of paying taxes that are spent mostly in the rest of the country, and their culture is definitely different than the rest of the UK... Just because you can find an example with your desired outcome, it doesn't make your argument right.


From reading many articles from other sources, the main thing that sticks out is
1 - The catalan movement increased it's vote
2 - Mas ( his party )lost some ground mainly because he is seen by mainy catalans as a "lap-dog" for Madrid

In the end, when all is said and done, the EU laws state that every culture has the right to self-determination and independence.
This is what Madrid signed in agreement when it entered the EU.
One cannot agree in writing to a law and then decide to ignore it, that leads to anarchy.

To me , 51% of a yes vote is enough for independence

BTW, I am not catalan


Two usual 'trues' much enforced by big mass media have come to be under serious exam after this elections.

First, 'normal people do not care about the national issue'. As a matter of fact, here we had an election where the national issue was central and particiation was higher than ever.

Second, 'you nationalist are lucky to win in regional elections because lots of people do not care to participate in little regional elections. Just wait for the day...etc'. Well, here we had an electoral process with high participation and those parties in favour of what is being called 'soberanism' gathered almost 2/3 of the seats.

Anyway, the eventual path towards 'right to decide' not to speak of independence is far from clear.

First, the main coalition CiU sooner or later will have to pay atention to solve the increasingly awkard combination of its 'stereo' missage. One loudspeaker more and more prone to independentist while the other loudspeaker using the word 'confederation' as excuse to do nothing. As the thing evolves the breaking of this weird coalition seems to me a sure thing. It's almost ridicule see the two leaders elaborating such divergent messages. ¿Do they coordinate any time?

Second, it seems to me that 'soberanism' lacks the mental strenght to go all the way towards a new state, so Madrid knows very well this weakness and just do not give any legal room for changes until exhaustion, then concede a little. This is my guess.

I mean, just take a look at the perform of some of the long run projects of catalanist (nationalist or not, I mean CiU, PSC, ERC, ICV).

So as an example
Catalan TV and radio once created to be tools to uphold catalan culture. Well, they are using increasingly spanish language almost at 50% and contents much more build on popular castilian culture than on catalan culture. They call it 'being in touch with diversity'. Diversity is just more and more spanish. But rarely you'll see catalan accents outside of Barcelona's catanyol (Spanish language spoken using catalan words).
At last, Josep Pla? Verdaguer? Pujols? Just who are those folks?. 'Just-any Madrid-fiesta-starsystem' yes of course they know.

Yes, if you are a catalan worried by catalan culture you pay mainly for a political (shxt, excuse me) tool with no respect for catalan culture.

Another example,
I have great news for those who hate linguistic immersion. Yes, it is true that the formal true is that children are teached in catalan but, in spanisj speaking areas, really if a teacher wants to skip the norm it may well be that nothing happens. Inspectors seem not to inspect. So Catalan speaking children, like in Franco times or worse still have to abandon catalan expression in face of a mainstream build on demography, inmigration, spanish speakin mass media, etc. Anyway the socially enforced mantra is never be critic with linguistic immersion as a tool for social convergence. The fact is politicians love it because if nobody dares to be critic they have lots of time to their power fights and shares. Just wait for 'english' to come along and it will be all almost 100% in Spanish because teachers consider that if an explanation is not understood in english then it is OK to use 'for a while' another language.

Third. You keep on going to restaurants and try to speak in catalan. Often you'll be fastly instructed by facts that unless you dare to face problems instead of having peacefully your drink (or food) you have to speak spanish. I mean, just say 'cafe' with catalan accent and it will not be strange that the waiter or waitress starts a sequence of what-what-what-what-what at anything you say until he/she gets you to speak perfect spanish. Then magically the 'what' thing stops. Of course, inspectors...¿do they exist?

They key fact is laws exist but are not enforced. Inspectors do not inspect. Police speaks spanish...In short, my guess is that if such is the performance with comparatively lesser issues already legal to be enforced, then any try to build with the same people (there are no more ) an eventul new state simply is a no-go.

Maybe is simpler catalan particularaties as language would have been really taken seriously by 'catalanist' political parties then Spanish parties would have get the message and we wouldn'b be now with higher political bets when lesser ones have not been accomplished. It's just escaping fst forward.

Do they can change it? Certainly a more rigorous country with inspectors that do inspect and laws thant coul be really enforced because respond to the real place would be already a different country without any legal frame changed

Hari Seldon de la Huerta

I lived, worked and voted in Catalonia (Barcelona) between 1991 and 2004. Frankly, it did not surprise me when I noticed that the turnout at last Sunday's elections increased by nearly 10%. Maybe for the first time in a long time citizens who would otherwise not bother voting at the regional elections thought that the stakes were high, and that a CiU majority under Mas(saiah) could take things too far. A substantial portion of the population, who do not care much about territorial identity, have tolerated a social ambiance where being pro-independence is necessary and sufficient for being a "good Catalan". We should thank the Catalan public media (where the Generalitat has been piling up debt over the last 30 years), and the many nationalists recalcitrants at all levels of society, for that. Can you imagine what the nationalistic busy bodies would do in an independent Catalonia? I have read enough European history to fear a totalitarian regime based first on "identity", and then who knows. And yes, of course Franco was a Spanish nationalist dictator who supressed civil liberties and all that, but that is precisely the sort of thing the unlikely voters of last Sunday might have wanted to avoid. Would you trust people who pass laws that force you to change your business advertising signs into Catalan? Would you trust people who report you if you don't? The irony of the story is that Mas and his lot only wanted to deflect the unrest from the austerity measures that the Generalitat's level of debt (the biggest in relation to regional GDP)forces on the Catalan population. And by the way, this extraordinary debt cannot be explained only by the fiscal imbalance between Catalonia and the rest of Spain. There are regions with a greater imbalance and a smaller level of debt (Madrid). Rather, the mountain of debt is a consequence of thirty years of "nation building" (i.e. constructing a formidable public media, administration and quango aparatus) plus fiscal folly during the years of the Three Party (PSC, ERC, ICV). This is of course similar to what other regions have done but "mal de muchos consuelo de tontos". Congratulations for having put Mas where he should, and good luck with the messy situation. Visca Catalunya i viva España!!.


President Mas put a brave face in his press conference this morning and assured everyone that a referendum will be held at some point in the next 4 years but it seems quite clear to most observers that it is just not going to happen.

Only the central government has the constitutional power to call a referendum and Mariano Rajoy's government is not going to grant it after last Sunday's elections. Had Arthur Mas won a clear outright majority then it would have put him in a good bargaining position. As it is his position is considerably weaker and even his continuity as President has been questioned.

Certainly the pro-constitution parties will not support the ruling nationalist party (CiU) while Arthur Mas remains as it's leader. Which means that we have a lame duck government further hobbled by an excruciating current account deficit and the certainty of having to impose savage cuts in 2013. An election next year or in 2014 cannot be ruled out.

Arthur Mas, having shot himself in the foot with his snap election, is not going to risk everything by calling an illegal referendum that would never be held. Especially when few catalans would actually vote for leaving Spain if it also means leaving the European Union.

MH @ Syniadau

CiU might have lost ground, but support for a referendum on independence went up. With 87 deputies out of the 135 elected on an explicit pro-referendum platform, there is no doubt at all that the Catalan parliament will vote to hold one.
As for timing, it is almost certain to be sooner rather than later. In fact the result has made it more likely that it will be sooner rather than later. It will certainly not happen later than 2014, and even though ERC want it to be sooner (September 2013) I do not think the Catalan government will have got certain critical things in place by then, such as the establishment of an up-and-running tax agency to collect taxes in Catalunya rather than have them collected by Madrid. This is essential because Madrid would otherwise be able to bring Catalunya to its knees by strangling their cash flow.
As for the likely result of the referendum, the 57.0% Yes vote in the latest CEO poll (t.co/GRKgVgVX) needs to be set against only 20.5% who would vote No (with 14.3% not intending to vote). In reality, the number who won't vote will be higher, at least 30% if not 40%. So the percentage of the electorate as a whole voting Yes might well go down to 45% ... but 45% Yes, 25% No and 30% abstaining would be a very handsome victory for for those of us who want to see an independent Catalunya.
MH @ Syniadau


'So can its figures on how Catalans would vote in an independence referendum (a 57% “yes”) be trusted? Jordi Sauret, of Feedback pollsters, believes the number would fall to 45% or less in a real poll.'

The best and real poll is the outcome of the elections: 64.4% supporting referendum parties, 54.81% supporting pro-independence parties and only 35.5% against independence. That is the big picture.



The best and real poll is the outcome of the elections: 64.4% supporting pro-independence parties, 35.5% against. That is the big picture.

guest-ljaasmm in reply to guest-ljaasmm




Perhaps, with the election result finally sinking in, Artur Mas has finally discovered some of his Catalan 'seny'(common sense). The decision to not attempt to push for a coalition government with Oriol Junqueras and the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC) is positive for ensuring some stability for Catalunya. Having CIU and ERC as co-governing parties would have had these two ideologically opposed political parties making little progress with the real issues that Catalunya, in common with the rest of Spain, face : high unemployment, fiscal deficits, low skill base and few prospects of returning to positive growth in the near future.

Vinarossenc in reply to unawatuna

Dear unawatuna,

Two years ago I posted the following comment, regarding a statement in one comment from you. The article was about the first electoral victory by Artur Mas, "Mas transits", The Economist Dec 2nd. 2011


"On a serious note, the elections showed significant indifference to the movement for independence, with the Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC), the most rabid party demanding independence for Catalunya being trounced at the polls."

I'm afraid things are not as clear-cut as your statement implies. Many pro-independence people have defected ERC, feeling ERC have not advanced one single step towards independence during their seven years in government.

On the other hand, Artur Mas has repeatedly said that he would vote in favour of the independence in a future referendum. He has also said that the moment to call for such a poll has not yet arrived. Many pro-independence people have voted for CiU, feeling that it is not the time for Braveheart yet, but for Machiavelli and Sun Tzu.

Finally, CiU has been badly burned in their past dealings with both the PP and the PSOE. I bet their coming dealings will be less Pollyannish. This means that Jordi Pujol's years as "español del año" will not come back.


The pro-independence movement has grown spectacularly in the last two years, fuelled by the economic crisis and the incompetence and insensibility of the Spanish governments in handling the Catalan issue. This applies to both Spanish main parties PP and PSOE.

In my opinion, the longing for independence of a large number of the Catalan population is here to stay. And grow. Only yesterday, Mr García-Margallo, the Spanish Foreign Affairs minister said of the Catalan political situation: "we thought it was a terminal cancer, but it was only a pneumonia". This is the head of the Spanish diplomacy, making friends as usual.


I believe that this issue it´s being underestimated by the Market ... Barcelona claiming their taxes or more money to spare under the threat of independence is now a real possibility ... and at this moment Spain simply cant afford to give out such a huge part of national income ... this could be a mess.

NAVESTOCK in reply to wallmarc

I understand that Catalonia both the bit in France and the bit in Spain formed a single part of the Kingdom of Aragon at one time. They have their own language. Mr Mas has been driven to look at more autonomy or independence because of the fiscal crisis.
I have always believed in the right of a group of people who see themselves as a people being allowed to govern themselves (and that includes Scotland and Wales in the UK). The issue goes back to the Athenian Empire in 420 BC if not before.
Clearly as Catalonia is the most prosperous part of Spain secession, should Mr Mas ask for it (the consensus appears to be that he W'ONT), will put the Spanish state in even deeper financial trouble but for me the WISHES of the Catalans are paramount.


NAVESTOCK in reply to wallmarc




Catalan separatism has been bubbling beneath the surfarce since it was partitioned between Spain and France THREE HUNDRED years ago.
What has brought matters to a head is the bursting of the bubble in the Spanish economy created by 5 % NEGATIVE real interest rate generated by the ECB's 'one-size-fits-all' interest rate. The region had not been stopped from engaging in wasteful expenditure eg airports fo which there was NO DEMAND and the aggregated governmental deficit became UNSUSTAINABLE.
Catalonia was shut out of the CAPITAL markets and unsurprisingly the regional started complaining about the IMBALANCE between what it remitted to Madrid and what Madrid spent in Catalonia.
The best verdict on the EZ


When President Mas called the election and made it clear that he wanted a mandate for calling a referendum on independence, legal or illegal, he knew that he was crossing the Rubicon and breaking the bridges behind him.
Whereas he had depended on the right-wing Popular Party (PP) to force through tremendous cuts in civil service salaries, public education, health and social services, this is now much more difficult to repeat:-
The PP will be content to let Arthur Mas suffer the consequences of his breach of faith with them and will not be drawn in to any agreements that might ultimately permit a referendum.
The Republican Left (ERC) who took almost all of the ruling party's lost seats. They will want to have their cake and eat it. In other words, they want to collaborate with President Mas on calling for a referendum on independence but want to vote against all the cuts that have to be made in public spending (more than 8 billion euros).
The Socialist party (PSC), the only other with which Arthur Mas could pact some kind of government, is in a terrible shape, having lost in only 9 years 32 seats in the Parliament (from 52 to 20). That is more than 3 a year and 8 in the last two years. They are very pleased that the result was not as disastrous as expected. Their leaders are very publicly divided into pro-independence, pro-federalist and pro-Spain factions. This has not helped them to retain much of their traditional voting base of native-spanish speakers who came to Catalonia from other parts of Spain and so are strongly anti-separatists. This has gone to the Citizen's party, whose leader was the only one to make the post-electoral speech in spanish.
All this makes for a very messy parliament for a ruling party faced with implementing savage cuts. Probably the first thing to be cut will be the promise to call an illegal referendum.


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