Not a popular president, but very hard to unseat

By R. W. Apple jnr and Janet Elder
November 4, 2004


For the second time in four years, the American people have shown themselves deeply split about who should lead their country.

Interviews with voters as they left the polls indicated that women, members of minority groups, young people, political independents, moderates and baby boomers had voted for John Kerry.

George Bush did best among whites, men, voters with high incomes and evangelical Christians. Bush divided the Roman Catholic vote with Kerry, who is Catholic but whose positions on abortion, same-sex marriage and embryonic stem cell research are at odds with his church's positions. The interviews showed that Catholics who attend Mass weekly preferred Bush, while those who are less observant supported Kerry.

Bush's bid for a second term was handicapped by his failure to compete on even terms with Kerry among the millions of new voters.

Almost 15 per cent of those questioned said they had not voted in the equally contentious election of 2000, and more than 60 per cent of them reported having chosen Kerry this year.

On the other hand, Bush held on to 90 per cent of the voters who said they had backed him four years ago, and Kerry won 90 per cent of the voters who said they had supported Al Gore, the Democratic nominee in 2000.

Many of those in the electorate as a whole who voted for Kerry said they considered their vote an anti-Bush action rather than a pro-Kerry one. This may explain why the challenger had such a difficult time against a president who was not terribly popular.

The electorate split very nearly down the middle, but Bush clung to leads not only in the national popular vote but also in one of the most important swing states - Ohio. Bush won Florida, while Kerry took Pennsylvania.

Three issues dominated voters' thinking, interviews suggested: the economy, the threat of terrorism and, somewhat surprisingly, since the candidates had given relatively little emphasis to them, moral values.

The country remains as divided about the success or failure of Bush's presidency as it was when a Supreme Court ruling led to his narrow victory four years ago.

The New York Times