Numbers Game: By going solo on offense, Westbrook steals thunder from Oklahoma City

Seems like everyone's talking about Tony Allen and Kevin Durant these days. Here in the pages (and pixels) of The Commercial Appeal, and on national outlets like ESPN, seems like the defensive efforts of the Grindfather against the likely MVP have drawn massive attention.

But there's another All-Star on the Thunder, another young superstar who took exactly the same number of shot attempts (28) as Durant in Game 2. And he's every bit as important for the Grizzlies to defend as Durant is, perhaps more so. Russell Westbrook has been an All-Star three times and has also been an All-NBA second-team player three times in a short but impressive career.

So many of Westbrook's shots come, though, at the expense of the Thunder running offensive sets or playing within the flow of the game. If he gets his, that often doesn't bode well for the team. Before Wednesday's practice, Grizzlies shooting guard Courtney Lee said, "We're fine with Westbrook taking shots. I mean, that's kind of what you want -- the more shots he takes, the less Durant takes."

That is basic mathematics. More of Westbrook equals less of Durant, an equation that's been kind to the Grizzlies over the course of Westbrook's career. Indeed, when Westbrook takes 20 or more shots against the Grizzlies, the Thunder have a record of just 3-7. Conversely, when he takes 19 or fewer, the Thunder are 14-5 against the Grizzlies. True to form, in Game 1 (100-86 Thunder win), Westbrook took 19 shots; in Game 2 (111-105 Grizzlies win), he took 28.


Per Synergy, well over half of Westbrook's offense consists of two things: Transition baskets and pick and roll. Westbrook likes to do things quickly and often by himself -- he has tended to work better as a solo act in this series. There is a distinct difference thus far when Westbrook does things by himself and when he is forced to move the ball.


Zero passes (he takes the ball over halfcourt and shoots): 12-23 FG, 6 shooting fouls drawn, 36 total points

One or more passes: 7-24 FG, 1 shooting foul drawn, 16 points

Taking that one step further, if you eliminate transition baskets from the equation, when Westbrook is forced to make even one pass before taking a shot, he's 4-20 from the field this series, for 20 percent. The fact is that Westbrook is a uniquely athletic player but often struggles to fit into a slower-paced halfcourt offense. That, of course, is what the Grizzlies defense would love to force Westbrook to do Thursday night in Game 3.

In the pick and roll, Westbrook offers a lot of different and potentially problematic offensive threats. Lee said, "The NBA is pick and roll basketball. Anytime anyone's setting a pick on a defender, it's tough, especially if you're guarding an All-Star player like Westbrook, capable of exploding to the rim and capable of stepping behind and making the shot." Westbrook can drive past his man or pull up in a flash and drain a jumper. There's not much he can't do offensively.

Mike Conley, who shared time on Westbrook with Lee, didn't necessarily think the Grizzlies handled the pick and roll well in Games 1 and 2. "We were very upset with the way we played (Westbrook) in the first game. We were still pretty upset with the way we were playing the pick and roll (in Game 2), especially with (Durant) in it."

In this series, when Westbrook runs his offense out of the pick and roll, he's 7-18 overall from the field. But as Conley pointed out, he's been much more dangerous in the pick and roll with Durant as the screener.


Kevin Durant: 4-5, 1 shooting foul drawn

Kendrick Perkins: 2-5

Nick Collison: 0-2

Serge Ibaka: 1-6, 3 SF drawn

When the primary defender on Westbrook has either elected to or been forced to go under the screen, Westbrook is 5-8 from the field (5-6 when shooting inside the arc). His pull-up two-point jumper is excellent, less so the three-point version. It's imperative that the Grizzlies try to avoid giving Westbrook that pocket of space; he's been deadly in that mid-range area off the screen and can still drive to the basket for a layup, too.

The screener is clearly a big factor, not only because of the quality of the screen set but also the threat of what that screener can do after setting the screen. As such, those factors affect what the defender can do against the screen -- can the defender fight over the screen, does the defender go under and attempt to prevent penetration, does the defender just flat out get pancaked -- these decisions happen in a flash and have a huge impact on Westbrook's offense.

Westbrook is without a doubt an elite NBA player and a terrifically athletic dynamo who is capable of things few other NBA players are. He is also capable of doing too much single-handedly and causing stagnation in the Thunder offense. His decisions in Game 3 -- and the Grizzlies' ability to influence them -- will play an enormous role in whether the Grizzlies will take a 2-1 series lead at FedExForum.
