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the union because of president obama's re-election. another 19% said they weren't sure whether their state should secede or not. that means leave america, become something else. it isn't just people tell anonymous pollsters. in many states people were signing in open public marketplaces, out in the street, petitions to leave the country. in seven states the petitions have received enough support to force the white house to respond actually. take a look at this map and where the petitions have received -- well, that's a big shock. tennessee, north carolina, i love north carolina, georgia, florida, alabama, louisiana, and texas. the secession movement has the most signatures in texas, of course, with nearly 120,000 people signing on. according to the "new york times," quote, secession fever has struck parts of texas. in texas talks of secession has steadily shifted to the center from the fringe. what is really going on here? let's find out. dana milbank has the right attitude, and ron reagan, a good friend of mine, an msnbc political analyst. i have to let you at this first, ron reagan. ever
th election. in iowa the campaign's numbers showed them tied with obama. in reality obama beat romney by about 6 points. in colorado romney's team thought they were up by 2.5. they actually wound up losing by 5.5. excuse me, i'm burping here. in new hampshire they had him ahead by 3.5. the reality, obama won by 5.5. these are like 9-point differences. his internal numbers were off in wisconsin, pennsylvania, and minnesota. a closer look shows more clearly why their confidence peaked right before the vote. over the last weekend there, the romney numbers showed romney gaining strong momentum in these key states. in wisconsin, obama lost 4 points in the polling just as romney gained 4 tying up the race. in new hampshire obama lost 4 while romney gained 3. the magazine quotes a romney aide on election night talking to romney's son tagg as the results were coming in. he looked like he was in a complete state of shock, as if these numbers cannot be real. to make matters worse, their polling told them florida and virginia, two states that romney lost, were in the bag. the republican party is
in 2012, in a general election with barack obama, an african-american, a democrat, and a relatively popular president would create a different electorate than the one you saw say in 2010 or in a primary situation? >> well, i think -- as you know, every poll starts with an assumption. here is who we think is going to show up and vote, therefore that's who we ask the question of. republicans and not just the romney campaign, but republican pollsters all across the country guessed wrong. we didn't see the intensity that there was there for the president, particularly among young voters. we oversampled male white voters. and, you know, you add all that together and you're going to see two, three, four-point differences. plus, the assumption always is that the incumbent is not going to pick up any votes on election day. i think this time -- >> i think that's right. bob, you're a pro-let's go through the first one. perception is about the enthusiasm level. we were watching the last election. you could see well before the election of 2008 the excitement for obama. i felt it myself obviousl