3:43 pm ET
May 8, 2014

Big Data

Can Zillow Predict What Your Home Will Be Worth in a Year?

    • Zillow " Zestimates" are really accurate. "Not"

    • Zestimates are usually off by about 10-15%. I have actually had sellers tell me they do not want to be on Zillow for that reason. When you have a home listed for $450,000 and the Zestimate says $399,000 you could potentially scare buyers away because they believe everything they see...it must be true, its on the internet!

    • As a past SVP of real estate valuation for the (then) 15th largest bank in the world, Zillow is a piece of crap! Ti's no more than an automated valuation model ( computer, AVM), which relies upon "ancient data" to try and project current and future value!

    • Zillow, Trulia, and the like, are the worst thing to happen to real estate. Zillow is more often inaccurate with available properties, and the 'Zestimates' are a joke! Predicting future value? Get real! Maybe they can also tell us who will win the 2016 presidency, and give me the winning Powerball numbers. Only the gullible rely on this nonsense.

    • It is just a estimate. If you know what that means then you should not have a problem.

    • ignore Zillow. it's a joke

    • Ryan,

      Do you not think a buyer is going to look up the estimate on Zillow anyway?

    • They can't even get my home's price today... what makes it better for them to estimate the price a year from now?

      Just to show you how accurate Zillow is, their own stats show that in the SF region they are within 5% of a sales price just 26% of the time. With homes selling at over $1M, that >$50k difference is meaningful.

    • Zillow can't get much right. I doubt they could "predict" what the home already sold for 10 years ago. They're worse than stock analysts

    • Zillow averages comps in an area and calculates for differences in publicly available information. There's nothing wrong with that, but here are some facts. When Zillow was just getting started, I asked it to tell me what my house was worth. It's answer: $800,000. Last week I asked Zillow to tell me what my house was worth. It's answer: $184,000. Yesterday I got my tax appraisal. It's assessment" $206,000. For the first time in the existence of Zillow, it will soon be able to tell me what an identical house in the same neighborhood sold for. Then and only then will I have a true "comp". Beyond that, my own house has an aluminum roof that is guaranteed for life and reduces my electric usage. It adds substantial value to the house which Zillow is ignorant of. Likewise, the identical house down the street has granite counters, something my house does not have. Again, real valuable differences aren't comprehended by Zillow. It's not wrong. It's just not realistic.

    • doubt it - they have no clue. We own a log-home with amenities and they still price us low

    • Apparently the commenters have mistaken their 'zEstimate' to be a 'zAppraisal'

    • Zillow has no clue. Ours is a log home with view and many amenities - owner built. They have consistently underpriced it by a large margin compared to appraisals. They have no feet on the ground.

    • The problem is that what they consider comps are driven by geography, not by any meaningful assessment. And, in some areas, the geography seems to be pretty wide. In addition, if it's an area where the rate of selling is relatively low, then the averaging process makes even less sense. In many suburban areas, the difference in prices in just a few tenths of a mile can be substantial, and if there are two sales in a given period, one in neighborhood A and one in neighborhood D, you get very substantial swings in prices over very short periods of time. Local assessments are meaningless as ways to discern value, because in some areas, homes are valued at assessed value, while in others it's typical for a selling price to average 3x assessed value, and again, in established communities where assessments are old, the variability becomes larger.

    • When 17% of Zillows cureent 106 million Zestimates are more than 25% inaccurate it is a very bad joke that they are extrapolating that data to predict future home values. What is even more disgraceful is that Zillow refuse ALL requests from homeowners to correct or delete erroneous Zestimates. Zillow are using this nonsense purely as a cynical means of attracting Unique Users and increasing revenues. It is time that Zillow was regulated to protect homeowners and at the minimum there needs to be a DoNotZestimate website to allow homeowners to opt out in the same way as 'phone users can register with DoNotCall to opt out of spam calls.

    • Zestimates is worthless fantasy tool. CEO appears to be on a road show to hype his companies stock up. The company's own officers are selling this stock showing they believe their stock is overpriced. 1st quarter 2014 "Display" revenue (ad dollars) shows no growth from last quarter. Keep spending millions of dollars on sales and marketing.

    • Zillow is still wrong about many things. Their claim their information is from public record, but their "facts" and public records do not line up.
      Zillow nor anyone else can know what a house is worth until it sells. Then it is worth what was paid for the house, no matter what other houses in the area are said to be worth. Comps. are BS. They are just guess work. And, that's all Zillow is, except Zillow is making a guess at something they have never seen.

    • Zero creditiability for Zillow. Property listed with several inaccuracies as to street locations, lot location, prior sales data (grossly inaccurate) no accounting for tremendous Mt Shasta and surrounding views.

    • My neighborhood consists of one street with a gate all homes the same size by same builder. My house is the lowest for some reason There are no views etc as difference. I have been in my neighbors house yet zillow values some of my neighbors at 50k more. I am thinking of selling and to me this really pisses me off. Would like a explanation

    • Zillow is slow to update the list of homes compared to other websites. Their home valuation is a joke.

    • Zillow is a giant joke....

    • Zillow is a joke. They listed our home 5 yrs ago at $190,000, but now say it's worth $124,000.....ugh!!!! When I look at the graph that shows their values for the last 10 yrs., they show it being only worth $120,000, in 2009...they totally changed it!!!!

    • I only use Zillow to find recent sales data, then I research the actual sales prices in the area. As a research tool it is fine, but the valuation side is total creative nonsense. There is no AVM that can possibly value your home based on external data which may be innacurate. I always tell people, the only way to know what your house is worth is to hire someone like me, and actual appraiser who knows what they are doing.

    • If Zillow cant predict the current value of my home, I don't see how it can predict future values.

    • Zillow can't even get the estimate right....

    • How are they going to look into the future ? ....they can't get current values right . Their research and market solutions are based on crunching numbers from afar ....there still isn't any substitute for local knowledge and by relying on computers to " crunch the numbers " Zillow and similar sites are always going to be just a way to generalize the trend .

    • Zillow estimate for my house was always off. The year before we sold our house, the zestimate ranged btw $850k and $1M, we sold for just over $1.5M. We knew it was a joke. The funny thing is now, if you go look at the historical Zillow Zestimates for our house, they changed them! I have an email from February 2013 telling me my Zestimate was ~950k in Feb 2013, but if you look at the page now it claims that the Zestimate was $1.1M. I guess they updated their historical Zestimate chart once we sold for 1.5M...

    • this is phony how can they come up with a mathematical formula to predict future prices of houses.

    • zillow should not be used for anything except for recent sales data, comps, and properties for sale and real estate broker recomendations and mortgage recommendations and thats about it. do not use zillow for real estate valuations, or for future predictions about price.

    • I wonder how much I can sell my beach front property in Utah for?

    • I don't know if they could accurately predict the value of my home in San Francisco, for years now they are 300K less than trulia. Really a 3 bedroom house in a decent part of San Francisco for $700k when week after week a house in the neighborhood goes for over a million.! If they cannot value homes in San Francisco what hope do they have for predicting future values.?

    • They can't tell you what it is worth now! This is directly off their website "This is the percentage of transactions in a location for which the Zestimate was within 5% of the transaction price. Nationwide, Zestimates are currently within 5% of the final sale price 38.3% of the time".

    • What a crock. Zillow doesn't track if you've remodeled..it estimates our home value at $50K less than what we just bought it for a month ago. Totally inaccurate.

    • Zillow can't accurately estimate my home's value now.

    • As a retired property appraiser, I can assure you that it is certainly worth the $300+ fee to get an accurate evaluation of your home, rather than to trust Zillow. One of my former clients went with a Zillow "guess", and lost $172,000 in the process!

    • Completely wrong. Z will collapse.

    • In most cases Zillow estimates of current value are wrong, sometimes significantly so...how are they going to arrive at a projected value with the incorrect starting point. Zillow actually adds more confusion than value to the real estate transaction process.

    • Zillow can not estimate a property today. My 2 lots worth 1 million, their wetimate, is, for 3600 sqf home, 5 bde 4 baths and both lots on the water, at 157 thousand.

    • Zillow can easily manipulate prices. I agree, in many case Zillow is wrong. It does not know the neighborhood, what condition the house is in, or any improvements done since it last sold,
      Zillow is trying to make a name for itself and is having negative effect on prices.

    • No it can't and don't be STUPID!

    • Anybody who does ANY real estate transaction doesn't base ANYTHING that zillow gives out!

    • They would have to be able to predict what a home is worth today in order to predict the value in a year. The best they can do without a physical inspection and local knowledge is offer a statistical range of value. This sight may do more harm than good to the general consumer. They might be able to predict the average increase for some areas but that is the best they will be able to do. They have a 50/50 chance of being right.

    • Zillow has always been known as a joke by appraisers. There is no way for Zillow to accurately give a home's value since it can't determine condition or any other of the numerous factors that go into valuation. Since it can't even accurately predict a current home value, how in the hell do they think they can predict value in the future! Idiots!

    • Real Estate Agents going to have a hard time convincing owners they property is not worth as much as Zillow say it is.

    • Zillow is neither current, accurate nor complete.

    • A home price now and in the future is based on many factors the square footage,shape it is in,the type of neighborhood recent comps and most of all what somebody is willing to pay!!!

    • Zillow in its quest for money has tried everything and will do anything to drum up profit. I wouldn't count on their data nor their advice.

    • Zillow cannot even get the transaction of my home sales straight. We bought our home thru traditional sales yet they said our house was sold thru foreclosed auction. We been trying to get them to correct that information for years.

    • I think all these companies just make this stuff up. Talking about the market, How its and then its down. Zillow is like the JD Powers company. Who ever pays the most gets the best right ups. My opinion realtors are useless they have the same mentality as a car salesmen. They think having an open house is work. Yes we know you have to pass a state exam. If wanted to sell my house for 900,000 you would say that it's not worth 900,000 because of the market. And thats your excuse not to work for your money. you want easy. There ia always someone who will buy just have to put forth the effort .

    • Should tell you a little bit of the WSJ since it sites zillow most of the time.

    • Since they cannot accurately predict the price of my home today with any degree of accuracy worth my time, I am not sure how less information and more distance is going to improve their seermanship.


    • I work as a real estate appraiser in San Francisco. Despite the fact that these people are trying to wipe out my industry, I respect what they are trying to do. But one thing I've learned in my time as an appraiser is that numbers DO lie. Zillow is probably extracting its property sf from county records. As a matter of fact, county records in San Francisco are almost uniformly wrong, especially in neighborhoods like the Sunset, because people build unpermitted additions on their lower level. This feature adds substantial value and as far as I know, do not get picked up by county records. If you only take a numbers approach in valuations, you are bound to whiff.

    • How can Zillow even begin to think it will know how much my house is worth now, let alone in the future if they have never seen it, never been to my neighborhood or know anything about my neighbors or their properties. All the guessing is going to do is either lower home values or raise home values depending on what they forecast. Stop playing with peoples lives by changing their home values based on your whims.

    • I'm a big fan of Zillow, but they can't even get my house value correct now, much less a year from now. A house behind me sold over four months ago and they still haven't recorded the sale, and another house which is similar to mine just sold across the street last month for nearly $70K more than what they value my house at. Meanwhile, Trullia is the exact opposite. They've at least recorded the two sales, but are overaluing the houses by about $200K.

    • Zillow says my home is worth about 30% more than it is worth. I stopped looking at Zillow because their estimates were so far off they were silly.

    • Same home, same sqf in the very same community, with same HOA amount, has a difference of +30K . Zillow is the least accurate online RE service. Nice website, nice feature except their estimates,,,

    • Trulia is consistent and by far better in the way they estimate. Maybe a bit over valued. Trulia is probably the best reference.

    • sure they CAN predict it ..but accurately is the more pertinent question

    • Zillow can't even give accurate estimates of current value, so any estimates of future value, extrapolated from inaccurate valuations, would be worthless. Last year, I sold my condo in SF-CA for $690k, which at the time of sale, was valued by Zillow at $593k... pretty big difference.

    • NO!! They can't. They are only good at showing trends. They can't even "predict" today's prices

    • I own a duplex. My "comps" are dismal, due to foreclosures following the investing frenzy of recent years. Nearly all of these properties have serious deferred maintenance issues as most investors focus on their bottom line profits spending ONLY for repairs of absolute necessity that keep them "legal." These sad rentals can only command a rental rate commensurate with neighborhood AND condition. Energy efficient windows are a rarity, as are more efficient heating and air systems. So, the rent zestimate is grossly undervalued as well.

    • Zillow rarely ever gets it right. They had my home valued 20% more than I paid 3 months ago. They had my sisters home valued 10% less than see paid 3 years ago, and her home went up in value. Now they are going to tell us the future value? Don't make me laugh.

    • As a Real Estate appraiser, when a home owner tells me they know what there house is worth because they checked Zillow, my butt puckers!! I just did an appraisal and the loan officer and home owner were really upset because Zillow said it was worth $295k. My opinion of value was $210k. They gave me 3 closed sales that Zillow recommended. All between $275k and $300k All 3 were previously purchase by an investor, heavily remodeled and upgraded and sold for a profit. They said, they were model matches, net door and across the street. But the subject was a fixer. The microwave was about to fall out, everything about this house was all original and dated, But hey, Zillow said!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
      I also disagree with Zillow and other platforms saying +20% increases in value that the market is increasing. BULL! 8 out of 10 homes that are currently (and its been this way for 3 years now) purchased, were also purchased within the last 18 months, extensively upgraded and updated and sold for a profit. Yes. It sold 1.5 years ago for $200k and recently sold for $300k to $325k. Is that because the market increased or because the condition and quality of the home improved? Things that make you go hummm.

    • My house is listed as last sold in 1993, however I bought it in 2007, the previous owner had it for 2 years. How is that for accuracy?

      Can I take their zestimate to the county appraisers office to reduce my property taxes?



    • Zillows home estimate are Wackie and made no sense. They are known to generate rediculos estimates and apprissals. A 3 Br, 1- Bath, 1,100 sf living space, 1=car garrage built in 1950 located in the bad neighborhood estimated value $1, 700 ,000 A semillar home beside ii 4-Br, 2 Baths. 1,600 sf living space, 1-car garrage built 1950, ZIillows estimated value $ 320.000. There is completely no credibility on all Zillows works it does'nt mean anything at all. It's all a joke.

    • The caption for this article read, Can Zillow predict your homes value, not give an estimate. How would they be able to know the worth, when they have no idea the upgrades and improvements to the property. I put in what I upgraded on the websight and magically it is not there now, so all the old information is there. Of course it's value is lower. Zillow is a joke!

    • I just checked in with Zillow ... it shows the same run up to unsustainable levels, even worse that happened in the real estate collapse. This is why I do not really support raw unregulated capitalism. This turmoil in the housing market with speculation, boom, bust just kills people who are not involved and just trying to find a place to live that they can enjoy and afford. This boom - bust cycle does not promote economic growth ... what does that is a strong middle class and a predictable market so that people can make plans instead of having to save for when things go sideways. If we want a strong country, world and people who are not raw and spoiling for a revolution or looking for crimes to commit we better start caring more about the stability of their lives than the making of a few more percent profits of the 1% who do not even pay taxes on their ill gotten gains.

    • And by the way, sometimes Zillow is off, but I own two properties that both have reasonable comparable sales in the neighborhood and region and Zillow is correct about my houses' values to almost $10,000 even though there are differences in the comps and my house. The house next door to me just sold, but has not been recorded yet and Zillows value is very very close to the price. There are a lot of different areas, variables and differences, so all in all Zillow works pretty well I think. But anyone would not be diligent just to rely on Zillow or to expect that the Zillow amount is going to precise all the time.

    • Utterly ridiculous, as economists and traders cant get the movement of interest rates right.

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