Does Gaza Ceasefire Address Long-Term Goals?

Steve Inskeep talks with Robert Malley of the International Crisis Group about how the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas addresses short and long term, goals on both sides. Malley is program director for the Middle East and North Africa.




ROBERT MALLEY: Thanks for having me.


MALLEY: Well, you know, the war was an old war in the civil - and the ceasefire is an old ceasefire. What's new is that the battleground and the landscape in which the ceasefire is taking place. What's new is that this is the first time that Israel and Hamas have fought each other post-Arab uprisings, first time since Egypt has been ruled by the Muslim Brotherhood, first time that both Israel and the United States have to deal, diplomatically, with this new Egyptian president, this Islamist president with whom we've had historically bad relations. And the test was to see how it will all pan out.





If you look at the toolbox that President Morsi used, it was similar to the one that President Mubarak would have used and did use in the past, rhetorical condemnation, stated solidarity with the Palestinians, back-room dealings to try to reach a ceasefire and reliance on the United States as the partner in trying to bring this about.





INSKEEP: Wait a minute. Are you saying that Morsi, as the president of Egypt, would do what the United States wants when it comes to Israeli/Palestinian conflict in order to keep the U.S. off his back, and that the United States, he's hoping anyway, will sort of ignore this elimination of democracy locally?

MALLEY: I don't know if he thought it exactly that way, but if you look at the pieces and the timing, it does suggest that for the Muslim Brotherhood and for its president, the president of Egypt today, what matters is to make sure they could remain in power and that they could implement their project. And I think they know, and if you speak to them, they know that that means at least for now, you cannot afford to alienate the United States. You can't afford to alienate Europe. You can't afford to jeopardize the massive financial aid that the country needs.


MALLEY: No. I think it means - I mean, this is not a matter of influence. This is a matter of people making short-term calculations. I think we've seen that the U.S. has some influence. The ceasefire probably would not have been able to take place without it. But it also has a very limited influence in many other degrees, in terms of what's happening in Egypt today and in terms of what happened, even the war itself and we could go down the list of places where we could see an influence that remains, but it's still eroding day by day.

INSKEEP: Let me ask about the Israelis and Palestinians, Rob Malley. You mention this is a very familiar pattern - the Israelis striking into Gaza, saying it's self defense because of the rockets that were being fired into Israel. Does either side feel that it's gaining anything by a conflict like this?


And that's exactly what, this time, the Egyptians say they've come up with. So the question is not really, you know, are these new elements? The question is are they going to be implemented this time, and if they're not implemented, is it going to give rise to a new conflagration or can Egypt step in and make sure that the parties act in a different way?



MALLEY: Thank you.







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