GOP strategist Karl Rove has another way of analyzing post-convention polls.

Based on his analysis, the man who got George W. Bush into the White House sees nine states, together worth 122 Electoral College votes, that are up for grabs. "They will likely be the deciders in this election," he says.

Rove's nine states to watch: Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida.

His outlook today: President Obama is safe or leaning in states that account for 225 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. Mitt Romney can claim 191 votes, based on the strategist's review of polling data in states.

"Despite the recent media infatuation on post-convention 'bounces' in national polls, there have been no state changes in the Electoral College map since last week," Rove writes on his website. "Mitt Romney's standing has improved in several states, particularly in the two states that hosted the Democratic and Republican national party conventions."

Those two states where Romney has gained some ground: North Carolina, where Obama was the first Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976 to carry the state, and Florida, a perennial tossup in presidential elections.

Obama now leads Romney, 50% to 44%, among registered voters, according to Gallup's daily tracking poll. Gallup says Obama got a 3-point bump after the Democratic convention in Charlotte -- below the historical average of a 5-point boost after the party confab.