A Winter-Meetings Monday's worth of Angels rumors

December 5th, 2011, 3:09 pm ·

· posted by Sam Miller, The Orange County Register

Quick, let's talk about all the rumors before they turn into a wisps of smoke and drift away.

• Heath Bell, who signed with the Marlins for three years and $27 million, says he got an offer from the Angels but it was for only one or two years. This might be telling. Jerry Dipoto seems smart and sensible so far, and he has built a staff that seems smart and sensible based on their biographies. The one piece of conflicting evidence (based on the sliver of maybe accurate information we get) is his apparently serious pursuit of a top closer. If the Angels had $50 million free this winter, and he wanted to blow some of it on a long-term contract for a closer, it would be sort of wasteful but not upsetting. But the Angels have as little as $15 million to work with this winter, and a top closer -- like Ryan Madson -- will cost about $10 million or $11 million of that. And the Angels have a closer. And he's pretty good. Madson is better than Walden, but, what, five runs better? ([checks] Last year Madson was six runs better than Walden in the same number of innings.) That's just a lousy upgrade to invest an entire offseason on.

But then Heath Bell says the Angels offered him one or two years. Let's say it was one. That would be a perfectly reasonable thing to do! Let's say it was two. That would be a perfectly defensible thing to do. They didn't get him, but so what. They didn't do anything stupid, either, and they're back where they started, with a pretty good closer already.

If there had been a rumor that said the Angels were pursuing Heath Bell a couple weeks ago, I would have thought -- Heath Bell is going to sign for a lot of money. What's Dipoto doing? But Dipoto was pursuing Heath Bell a couple weeks ago, and he did it smartly and sensibly. This makes me far less nervous that he's going to trade Peter Bourjos for Drew Storen, or trade way too much for Andrew Bailey, or give Ryan Madson $44 million. This entire line of thinking could all be undone with one announcement -- "and we're excited that Ryan Madson will be in our bullpen for the next 32 years" -- but for now, I'm going to assume that Jerry is the guy in your auction who bids on every player and never, ever gets stuck with a bad contract.

Incidentally, Dipoto just told reporters he didn't make an offer to Bell or any other closer. So, you know. All that stuff up there may be whatever.

• The Phillies are trying to get rid of Placido Polanco so they can add Aramis Ramirez. There is no way that Aramis Ramirez can play third base for both the Phillies and the Angels -- joke about his range, har har -- so this is a threat to a thing that the Angels might be trying to do. The Angels don't really need a third baseman --

  • Alberto Callaspo, 2009-2011: 8.2 WAR
  • Aramis Ramirez, 2009-2011: 3.8 WAR

-- but you can at least see where investing in Ramirez makes more sense than investing in Madson: Callaspo could be easily moved, and Ramirez does give the Angels a thing that Callaspo (and the rest of the lineup) doesn't. I read an interesting analysis of Dipoto today -- I'm sorry to whoever said it, I can't find it -- that basically said there's not much we know about Dipoto yet, but it's clear he uses public pronouncements to sway the market. He's been pretty darned clear in interviews that he has no interest in Ramirez; yet he has also reportedly met with and made an offer to Ramirez. For what it's worth -- nothing* -- my best guess for this offseason is the Angels sign Ramirez for less than you thought he'd sign for, they don't sign Wilson or a top closer, they do trade Callaspo or Izturis, they do pick up an interesting but risky reliever (Saito, Aardsma, Francisco) and they do trade for or sign a starter who falls somewhere between Roy Oswalt and Joe Saunders. And they get rid of Jeff Mathis. That's the center square right there.

*seriously, nothing***. It's worth nothing. They won't do any of that.

• Bill says of C.J. Wilson, "Sense here is CJ Wilson's target of six years, $100 million is unrealistic. Doubtful anyone will go that high." Right now, we know basically nothing about who is going to get C.J. Wilson. Look at this noise:

Somebody has already gone to six years, according to the Fort Worth Star Telegram, somebody other than the Rangers. But C.J. Wilson hasn't gotten the Yankees involved yet, and the Yankees -- whose No. 3 starter is Freddy Garcia, who might actually be better than their No. 2 starter, Ivan Nova -- still seem like the best chance for him to get a lot of money. Especially if Yu Darvish doesn't come over this winter. In fact, if C.J. Wilson signs somewhere before the Yankees make him an offer, I'll make Dave Gershman eat a kitten. Look at me pretending like I know what I'm talking about.


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