Collor`s Fate Hinges On A Few Votes

Unrest Possible In Brazil If President Escapes Impeachment

September 28, 1992|By Gary Marx, Chicago Tribune.

RIO DE JANEIRO — While most Brazilians back the impeachment of President Fernando Collor de Mello, political analysts say the embattled president could muster enough congressional support to remain in office.

But experts say that if Collor beats the bid to oust him, it could lead to civil unrest and possible military intervention.

A Gallup poll published Sunday in a local newspaper found that 80 percent of the 2,715 Brazilians interviewed thought Collor was a bad president and 70 percent believed he should be removed from office.

And while lawmakers hoping to have Collor removed say they have enough votes to pass an impeachment bill through Brazil`s lower house, informal surveys published Sunday by local newspapers indicate the vote is still too close to call.

Congressional debate is expected to start Monday, and the vote on impeachment is expected Tuesday.

``Collor`s chances are slim that he can win the vote, but the possibility can`t be ruled out,`` said Amaury de Souza, one of Brazil`s leading political scientists. ``But even if he wins, he has lost the confidence of the Congress and the public to effectively govern the country.

``Public opinion is such that it would be hard to accept a victory by Collor. If there is rioting, it could evolve rapidly into an institutional crisis.``

A congressional probe found that Collor, who took office in 1990, received millions of dollars in ``undue benefits`` from a bribery and kickback scheme operated by his 1989 campaign manager, Paulo Cesar Farias.

Farias was indicted Friday, accused of corruption and other crimes. Both Collor and Farias deny any wrongdoing.

To impeach Collor, at least two-thirds of Brazil`s 503-seat Chamber of Deputies-the lower house of Congress-must pass an impeachment bill.

If the required two-thirds majority favors impeachment, the president would be suspended from office for 180 days while the Senate decides whether to remove him permanently.

De Souza and other experts say Collor would have virtually no chance of winning a vote in the Senate, which is dominated by opposition parties.

In the lower house, opposition leaders claim to have 360 votes for impeachment-24 more than the required number. Collor supporters say they have about 160 lawmakers opposing impeachment.

The impeachment process would end if Collor succeeds in blocking the bill in the lower house of Congress.

But the president could still face criminal charges if two-thirds of the Chamber of Deputies votes to give the Supreme Court the mandate to pursue criminal charges against Collor.

So far, Collor has given no indication he will resign, despite a series of huge street demonstrations in most major Brazilian cities.

Last week, 700,000 people rallied in support of impeachment in Sao Paulo, Brazil`s largest city. And Friday, an estimated 350,000 people packed the financial district in Rio de Janeiro for a peaceful four-hour demonstration.

De Souza and other experts say the peaceful demonstrations and the relatively smooth congressional impeachment process show a profound maturing in Brazil`s fragile democracy, which was re-established in 1985 after 21 years of military rule.

Most experts predict Collor will negotiate his resignation with Congress if he loses the impeachment vote, hoping to trade his resignation for impunity from criminal prosecution.

But if Collor defeats the attempt to remove him, many experts fear political paralysis, widespread civil unrest, and possible military intervention to restore order.

``The military doesn`t want to do this, but in the short run a victory by Collor could result in the military`s presence in the streets and in politics,`` De Souza said.