Thursday 25 December 2014

World Cup 2010: what teams need to do to qualify for the second round

Read a complete guide to the qualification process for round two of World Cup 2010, and what could happen if England fail to beat Slovenia in their final group match.

John Terry and Fabio Capello - England v Slovenia: what is needed to avoid World Cup elimination
Wait, so what do we need now?: Fabio Capello now knows what is needed of England in order to progress. Photo: PA

England have been here before at a World Cup. Success and failure coming down to one final match, with seemingly endless possibilities as to who can progress, and how they can do it.

Here's the official line from Fifa on qualification from the group stages:


a) greatest number of points obtained in all group matches;

b) goal difference in all group matches;

c) greatest number of goals scored in all group matches.





g) drawing of lots by the Fifa Organising Committee.


But let's face it, no one will be able these to figure out these permutations in the 87th minute as Frank Lampard lines up a free kick on the edge of the area.

England currently lie third in the group, behind second-placed USA by virtue of c) number of goals scored. Slovenia, having beaten bottom-placed Algeria (one point) in their opening game, are two points cleare at the top (see table right of page).

An England defeat to Slovenia would see them eliminated at the World Cup group stage for the first time since 1958. England would finish on 2 points, but any result in the USA v Algeria game would see one of those sides finish above England.

An England draw makes things a little bit complicated. As things stand, USA are above England by virtue of c) - USA have three goals to England's one. A win for either the USA or Algeria would see them finish higher than England, so a draw in the USA v Algeria match is needed to give them any hope.

This would still send England out unless their draw with Slovenia is high-scoring enough for them to overtake the USA's goal tally. So if the USA draw 0-0 with Algeria, a 3-3 draw would be enough for England to goal through on goals scored.

If England and the USA both draw and England do so by scoring two goals more than the USA, g) will come into play and lots will be drawn. This has only happened once in World Cup history; Republic of Ireland and Holland drew lots to determine who finished 2nd and 3rd in the group (3rd was enough to qualify) in 1990. Ironically, the winners of that group were England.

An England win would see them qualify, finishing on 5 points ahead of Slovenia's 4 points. So, rejoice.

England would finish as group winners if they beat Slovenia by a greater margin than the USA beat Algeria OR if the USA fail to beat Algeria full stop. They would do so thanks to b), a better goal difference.

If the USA beat Algeria by the same or larger margin than England beat Slovenia, the USA would qualify as group leaders and England would finish second.

But given the similar uncertainty surrounding Group D, the group which would contain one of England's last 16 opposition, it's difficult to predict whether topping the group would be beneficial or not to England. So England fans shouldn't be too downheartened if it's a USA-England 1-2. Unless they know an American, of course.

In which case, your life will become unbearable for the foreseeable future.

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