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Intel Guidance

Released on 2012-10-10 17:00 GMT

Email-ID 68691
Date 2011-05-30 23:46:36
New Guidance

1. Yemen: There have been additional defections of military units from
Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh. How significant were these
defections? We need to look specifically at the alleged defections from
the Republican Guard, which would signal a more significant fracturing of
the military forces closest to Saleh. What is Saleh playing for, and how
much longer can he hold out? What are Gen. Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar next moves?
We also need to keep tabs on the al Ahmar tribal negotiations to build a
tribal coalition to lay siege to Sanaa.

We also need to take a look at Islamist elements in the south and the
seizure of the coastal city of Zinjibar. The impasse between Saleh and
opposition forces in the capital led by Mohsen has created a window of
opportunity for all manner of independent entities in the always fractious
country. What other dynamics and actors do we need to be considering?

2. CHINA - We are nearing the June 4 anniversary of the Tiananmen Square
incident in China. Perhaps coincidentally, over the past few months, we
have seen an intensification of security efforts underway in China, from
more robust targeting of religious organizations to tightened internet
controls. There is a sense inside China that things are rather tense with
the leadership, particularly regarding social stability. Is this just an
over-sensitivity to information coming from China, or is there increased
activity and concern by the Chinese leadership? If the latter, what are
the the differences in internal factors this time around as compared to
prior years?

Existing Guidance

1. Israel/Palestinian Territories/U.S.: Is there any real shift in U.S.
policy toward Israel now or in the near future? What are Fatah*s next
steps in trying to maintain legitimacy vis-a-vis Hamas? To what extent are
the surrounding political dynamics threatening hamas' internal unity?
What's the status of the negotiations over hamas' relocation?Keep watch
for any signs for a third intifada that may be in the works, especially as
we approach June 7, the anniversary of Israel*s capture of east Jerusalem
in 1967.

2. Syria: Whether or not the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood can sustain itself
in the face of the government*s iron fist tactics, especially with Alawite
and army unity holding, will serve as an important test for the regime*s
ability to contain the uprising, at least in the near term.

3. Libya: Is the European Union attempting to push for the acceptance of a
de facto Libyan partition? Can Europe accept a stalemate? What does it do

4. North Korea: How significant are the food problems in North Korea at
this time, and how does China perceive the current stability of the North
Korean regime? Are we nearing another opening for inter-Korean and
multinational discussions with North Korea? We need to think of this both
from the standpoint of the transition of power in Pyongyang and from North
Korean intentions in terms of international relations moving forward.

5. U.S./Pakistan: What is the status of the balance between the civilian
leadership, the military and the intelligence apparatus? What is the
impact on already strained U.S.-Pakistani relations? How far is Washington
willing to push Islamabad, and how much of the talk in Washington will
really have an impact?

6. Iran: What is the status of the power struggle between Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad? We need to
understand how far Ahmadinejad is willing to push the matter. Also, will
the dispute affect Iran*s moves in the intelligence sphere and in its
this dynamic because it has the potential of redefining the balance of
power within the Islamic republic.

7. Iran/Iraq: Tehran*s foremost priority is Iraq and the issue of U.S.
forces* timetable for withdrawal there is coming to a head. How does
Tehran plan to play the coming months in terms of consolidating its

8. Iraq: Attempts to extend the United States* military presence in Iraq
beyond the countries* agreed 2011 deadline for withdrawal have thus far
the United States, Iraq and the region.