BERLIN -- Germany has a postwar tradition of two-party coalition governments, and the next government is likely to continue that string.

The two most likely combinations would ensure that Chancellor Angela Merkel gets a second term. But an array of other party groupings could come into consideration if pre-election polls are proven wrong by a splintered vote.

Germany's Political Parties

  • BLACK: Merkel's center-right Christian Democratic Union and its Bavarian sister Christian Social Union -- CDU/CSU.
  • RED: The center-left Social Democratic Party -- SPD.
  • YELLOW: The Free Democratic Party -- FDP.
  • DARK RED: The former communist Left Party.
  • GREEN: The environmentally focused Green Party.


Germans keep track of their leading political parties with color coding, which also are used in combination when discussing possible coalitions to form a parliamentary majority. The exception is the current grouping of Ms. Merkel's CDU/CSU and the SPD, called a "grand coalition" because it includes Germany's two largest parties.

Ms. Merkel has made little secret of her hope for a "black-yellow" coalition with the Free Democrats, a combination favored by German business leaders. Recent polls suggest either that grouping or a continuation of the grand coalition.

But other colorful combinations could emerge if smaller parties perform better than expected and the big parties perform poorly. For example, failure to get a majority for her hoped-for team-up with the FDP might force Ms. Merkel to ask the Greens to join the government. Germans refer to this as a "Jamaica" combination because of the black, yellow and green colors of that country's flag.

The Social Democrats themselves favor a so-called red-yellow-green "traffic-light" coalition with the Free Democrats and the Greens. But this would be a difficult task because the Free Democrats have ruled out the combination.

Here are the possible coalition combinations at a glance:

GRAND COALITION: A reprise of the coalition between Ms. Merkel's CDU/CSU and the SPD. Neither party wants to continue the partnership, but may be compelled to if voting trends rule out a majority-winning combination with a smaller party.

The CDU/CSU and SPD disagree on cutting taxes. They are more likely to reduce budget deficits by cutting social welfare benefits or by pushing taxes higher. Nuclear energy will be a controversial issue because the CDU/CSU want to extend the lifespan of nuclear power plants while the SPD insists on a phase-out by 2021.

Down to the Wire

Party Sept. 21-24 Sept. 15-21
CDU/CSU 33% 35%
SPD 25% 26%
FDP 14% 13%
Greens 10% 11%
Left Party 12% 10%
Others 6% 5%

Source: Forsa Institute

**Poll of 2,001 people conducted Sept. 21-24; Poll of 2,503 people conducted Sept 15-21. Margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.

Ms. Merkel would remain chancellor while Frank-Walter Steinmeier could remain vice chancellor and foreign minister. Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg would be expected to stay on as economics minister. Peer Steinbrueck, a member of the SPD, could remain finance minister.

BLACK-YELLOW: A center right coalition between Ms. Merkel's CDU/CSU and the FDP. This coalition would be expected to cut income taxes and reform the inheritance tax system, although economists say post-recession budget gaps will prevent this in the short term. They might also extend the lifespan of nuclear power plants.

Ms. Merkel would be chancellor and FDP leader Guido Westerwelle would likely become vice chancellor and foreign minister. Current economics minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg of the CSU might stay in his post or might become finance minister, replacing SPD member Peer Steinbrueck in that post.

TRAFFIC-LIGHT: A union of the SPD, FDP and the Greens. The SPD favors this coalition, but the business-friendly FDP has ruled out such a combination. The parties could clash over tax policies, firing rules and a nuclear phase-out.

JAMAICA: A coalition of the CDU/CSU, FDP and the Greens. This coalition would be a novelty for German politics. The Greens disagree on many issues with the FDP and the conservative parties, such as taxes, national security, human rights and the environment.

BLACK-GREEN: An unlikely coalition between Ms. Merkel's CDU/CSU and the Greens. This would be the first-ever lineup on a national level of a coalition that exists only in the city-state of Hamburg. There would be major differences on environmental issues, with the Greens insisting on a nuclear phase-out and a big role for renewable sources of energy, as well as national security and foreign policy issues.

RED-RED-GREEN: A coalition between the SPD, the post-communist Left Party and the Greens. This is the most unlikely outcome because the SPD has strictly ruled out such an alliance for this election. The Left Party is co-headed by a former leader of the SPD, which has intensified tensions between the two parties. Such a coalition would clash over taxes, national security and social welfare policies.

The two most likely outcomes, a grand coalition or a black-yellow coalition of the CDU/CSU and the FDP, could be clear as early as election night. A more fractured vote could mean protracted coalition talks among the parties in the weeks ahead in search of a workable majority. This would involve haggling for compromises on issues ranging from taxes and social welfare to a minimum wage and troops in Afghanistan.

Recent polls suggest Ms. Merkel could get a small majority to form a coalition with the Free Democrats, an alliance she has said she favors. However, the Social Democrats have gained ground in recent weeks.

"I think it will be similar to the previous elections. The dream of a center-right government will collapse," said Wichard Woyke, professor of political science at the University of Muenster.

With the Social Democrats catching up in polls, he said a grand coalition is the most likely outcome but it will be unstable. "Merkel had a safe seat in the current grand coalition, but she has only a half-life in the next one," said Mr. Woyke.

Write to Andrea Thomas at and Terence Roth at