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Wednesday, September 7, 2005
Updated: September 8, 6:17 PM ET
Clemens, Santana top Cy hopefuls

By Jayson Stark

The pitchers who are in the mix to win the Cy Young Award in the National and American leagues:

National League

1. Roger Clemens: Yeah, he'll actually feel his age -- and retire -- one of these decades. But in the meantime, Clemens (11-6, 1.57) leads his league in ERA, opponent average (.185), on-base percentage (.243), slugging (.260) and road ERA (0.52). But his team thinks it's illegal to score for him. So his run support (3.57) is the fourth-lowest in the league. We'd vote for him, but history says he won't win -- because no starting pitcher has ever trailed the league leader in wins by more than five and won a Cy Young.

Best ERA vs. league ERA
Pitcher Year ERA League Diff
Pedro Martinez 2000 1.74 4.92 3.18
Pedro Martinez 1999 2.07 4.87 2.80
Roger Clemens 2005* 1.57 4.23 2.66
Greg Maddux 1994 1.56 4.22 2.66
Greg Maddux 1995 1.63 4.18 2.55
Roger Clemens 1997 2.05 4.57 2.52
* -- Through Sept. 7

2. Chris Carpenter: What a machine. Since June 8, Carpenter (20-4, 2.28) has ripped off 15 straight quality starts in which he has pitched at least seven innings and hasn't lost -- a streak matched by only one other pitcher (Gaylord Perry) since 1920. The Cardinals also have won 15 of Carpenter's starts in a row -- something they never did even behind Bob Gibson. Carpenter leads the league in wins, complete games (seven) and innings pitched (213) -- and he's second in ERA, strikeouts (191) and shutouts (four). So can a pitcher who's 20-4 with an ERA that low not win a Cy Young? Well, it has happened -- to David Cone (20-3, 2.22 in 1988), Randy Johnson (20-4, 2.28 in 1997) and Pedro Martinez (20-4, 2.26 in 2002).

3. Dontrelle Willis: Clemens and Carpenter would have to blow up in September for Willis to win this award, but what a year (20-8, 2.52) he has had. He could become the second pitcher his age (23) or younger ever to throw five shutouts and lead his league -- joining only Fernando Valenzuela (1981). But Willis' ERA is nearly a whole run higher than Clemens'. And opponents' batting average against Willis (.241) is almost identical to opponents' on-base percentage against Clemens (.243).

Might also get some votes: Pedro Martinez, Roy Oswalt, John Smoltz, Jake Peavy, Andy Pettitte.

American League

1. Johan Santana: Santana (13-6, 3.07) hasn't been quite as Pedro-esque as last year. But his meager 13-win total is a product of three blown saves and seven games in which the Twins scored one run or none while he was in the game. And he's still the most unhittable starter in his league. Leads in strikeouts (205), strikeout ratio (9.38 per 9 IP), quality starts (20), opponent batting average (.212) and opponent on-base percentage (.249). He's also barely off the lead in ERA and innings pitched (196 2/3). So how about this for Cy Young credentials? Since the award was invented, no AL pitcher has led the league in ERA, innings, strikeouts and strikeout ratio in the same year. And the only three NL starters to do it -- Sandy Koufax (1965 and '66), Mike Scott (1986) and Randy Johnson (1999 and 2002) -- all won the award.

Led league in ERA by more than half a run
Pitcher Year Margin Cy Young Finish
Roger Clemens* 2005 0.71 ?
Johan Santana 2004 0.65 1st
Pedro Martinez 2000 1.96 1st
Pedro Martinez 1999 1.37 1st
Kevin Brown 1996 0.83 2nd
Greg Maddux 1995 0.91 1st
Greg Maddux 1994 1.18 1st
Ron Guidry 1978 0.53 1st
Bob Gibson 1968 0.87 1st
* -- Through Sept. 7

2. Bartolo Colon: Colon (18-6, 3.24) has made a huge Cy Young run by going 7-0 in his last nine starts, 10-2 in his last 14 and 14-3 in his last 21. He leads the league in wins, and he's only one quality start behind Santana. So Colon is in position to end the Angels' 41-year Cy Young drought -- the third-longest in the sport (behind the Reds and Rangers). But he has been helped by his bullpen (which has blown zero saves for him) and his run support (5.69 runs per game). And the batting average against him (.248) sure resembles the on-base percentage against Santana (.249).

3. Mark Buehrle: Santana might make hitters look worse than Buehrle does. But Buehrle (15-7, 3.00) actually has nudged slightly ahead of Santana in both innings pitched (203 2/3) and ERA. And Buehrle has two more wins despite worse run support (4.15 runs per game vs. Santana's 4.81). So he could be a big finish away from joining Jack McDowell (1993), LaMarr Hoyt (1983) and Early Wynn (1959) in the South Side Cy Circle.

4. Jon Garland: It probably won't help Garland (17-8, 3.28) that he has the highest run support in this field (5.80 runs per game), that he has won just twice since July 22, that he's only 8-8 against AL teams outside the Central or that he has a lower strikeout ratio (4.49 per 9 IP) than Jamie Moyer, Brian Moehler or Chan Ho Park. But Garland is second in the league in wins, he's tied for third in complete games (three), and he has as many quality starts (19) as Buehrle or Colon. So if he's the only 20-game winner in the league, that might be enough.

5. Mariano Rivera: It's kind of amazing that Rivera (35 saves, four blown, 1.52 ERA) doesn't own a single Cy Young trophy, considering his never-ending string of brilliance. But that tells you how tough it is for relievers to win this award. No closer has won it without leading his league in saves since Guillermo Hernandez in 1984. And Rivera now has slid behind Bob Wickman, thanks to his worst stretch of work since April. (He has been scored on in six of his last 14 appearances, believe it or not.) But he's still having his best statistical year ever (.177 opponent average, .462 OPS, lowest ERA of his career, just one inherited runner allowed to score). So if the voters can't get worked up about any of these starters, Mariano The Great is a darned fine alternative.

Might also get some votes: Roy Halladay, Joe Nathan, Cliff Lee, Barry Zito.

Jayson Stark is a senior writer for