DEAR PEOPLE WHO THINK APPLE IS GOING TO $1,000 A SHARE: Here's Why You Might Be Idiots... en-us Wed, 31 Dec 1969 19:00:00 -0500 Sun, 28 Dec 2014 23:44:30 -0500 Henry Blodget Charbax Mon, 19 Mar 2012 15:18:30 -0400 Apple has less than 7% of the smartphones market share in China. The game is nearly over for Apple in China. Chinese people are not morons, they don't signup for 2-year contracts as most idiots do in the USA. In China every phone is sold pre-paid. Chinese people can buy an iPhone 4 copy for less than $100. Or a legitimate Huawei or Samsung Android phone with same better than iPhone 4 performance for less than $100, why should any of them except a minority of very rich Chinese people pay $650 for an iPhone 4S? Charbax Mon, 19 Mar 2012 15:09:39 -0400 All this and you forgot to write: 1. Apple makes over 70% of its profits from the iPhone. Only the iPhone. Not iPad, not iPod, not iTunes, not Mac, 70% of profit is ONLY iPhone. When iPhone profit margins collapses (soon, because of better/cheaper mass market Android smartphones competition), Apple profits collapses, regardless what happens with iPad, Mac, iCloud, whatever. 2. China can decide tomorrow to block all manufacturing of Apple products and dedicate 100% of that capacity in manufacturing only Huawei and ZTE products to export and keep all profits in China. China does not profit from manufacturing Apple devices, they profit very little. While when China sells Huawei and ZTE devices for half the price, they get to keep all profits in China, thus China can make 2x more profit selling their own brands, it makes no sense for China not to only sell Chinese brands soon enough. If not that explicit, China can demand Apple pay double for components and manufacturing overnight. Which is going to be more than the retail exported price of better quality Huawei and ZTE devices. Apple is under the mercy of the Chinese Government. Not even $100 Billion cash reserves (now being depleted) is enough to corrupt every Chinese Government officials forever. 3. Apple board of directors don't know what they are doing. They are going to buy Twitter and Facebook for most of their cash reserves, as they are desperate to own some competitor to Google's cloud services and social networks, yet Twitter and Facebook are worthless, so that will be a very quick way for Apple to spend most of its cash, precipitating its collapse. Convertidor TS Thu, 15 Mar 2012 02:49:58 -0400 I do not think $1,000 A SHARE is high. You will find it is low sooner or later. johndis Tue, 06 Mar 2012 10:33:23 -0500 apple doesnt have any competitors, theres no one there to "eat their profit margin" Keith Jurow Sun, 04 Mar 2012 12:37:04 -0500 Sorry, Stu, but you're incorrect. The 52-week average number of shares traded daily is a little over 12 million. If you and others believe that there is $13 billion that can go into Apple daily now, I think you're going to be sadly mistaken. I've been reading charts since before you were born and it's just not sustainable. Kabelo Nkakala Sun, 04 Mar 2012 07:27:40 -0500 Firstly, remember that the reason they couldn't sell more products is because they couldn't make them fast enough. Secondly, do not compare Apple products (iPhone, iPad) with Android products as they are not in the same league. There is probably more than 5 Android phones for every iPhone, but only Apple will manage to sell every iPhone they make, despite being more expensive than an Android handset. That on it's own should tell you something. Apple creates, everyone else just competes! Apple will reach a Trillion dollar valuation and it will be the first company to do so. It doesn't have to be this year, but as long as they keep innovating at this rate that no else seems to be able to catch up with, they will make history! Idiot Sat, 03 Mar 2012 17:08:58 -0500 "How much is $65 billion? A lot. It is more, I think, than Apple has made in its entire history." -Henry Blodget Here's an idiotic question: How does a company that hasn't earned $65 billion in its history have approximately $98 billion in net cash? I came to "Business Insider" for a higher quality of research and reporting. Step it up Blodget! Phil Sat, 03 Mar 2012 08:20:26 -0500 Yep! The only real risk for Apple is to become too big, too huge and start to slow down innovations to make sure to satisfy the 99% of their current customers (like any big companies). Otherwise, as long they continue to innovate, they still have a long way to go :) Phil Sat, 03 Mar 2012 08:16:07 -0500 Well... everything's possible. Let's not forget that Apple only have a very very small percentage of computer market (under 10% I believe) and with the success of the iPhone and iPad, the merge of iOS and OS X, it might help to sell a lot more computer (laptops & desktops) for consumers by saying: "you know how to use your iPhone and/or iPad, so you know how to use our computers too". They can easily triple up their market share and sells in that domain... easily. I'm looking around me and everyone I know is switching, or willing to switch ASAP to Apple. Also, the Apple TV will breach in the TV market... but not only. It will for sure, enter in the Living Room Game Console market (PS3, Xbox360 and Wii). Having HD 1080p games ready for the coming iPad screen, they will perfectly run on a 60" screen too... or even on a 27" screen. By doing so and by having GameCenter between all devices, games will be possible across devices. Start on your TV, then continue on our iPhone or your iMac.... or even remotely with iCloud. It will definitely help to have an Apple TV (or even several) in your house. It will definitely drives sales of each devices, because people will have real interest to stay and live in the Apple eco-system. Why would you like to buy a $70 game for your PS3, when you can buy a $19 game in the App store for the Apple TV and it will also run in the iPad, the iPhone and your MacBookPro? With new A6 CPU and graphics capabilities, the future iPad 3 and Apple TV will have nothing to be shame in comparison to the PS3 or Xbox360. Bringing iOS game on Macs, it will also drive "content sales", which is another market that can definitely can grow. The more Apple device you have, the more content you will get from Apple too... Once again, it's all about the eco-system. Nonetheless, there are other markets Apple could join after the TV, such: - the Car: having a full Apple User Experience Car Radio, connected to iCloud, running your Apps for Maps, Turn-by-turn, SIRI for Voice activation, Music, videos and games for backseats, etc... - House Automation: There's plenty of things to do, such the Living room with the Apple TV, but that's not it. - Watch: That would be the next step after the "Phone" because it will become smaller and smaller... enough to become your "personal wrist computer", well... a watch with holographic projector, etc... It looks like Sci-fy concept so far, but it's definitely another market that could come in the next 5 to 10 years. And I'm sure I'm still forgetting a lot of additional markets they could enter. 10 years ago we were barely believing that Apple could do anything else than computers... and in less than 10 years they come with the iPod, iTunes Store, iPhone, iPad, Apple TV and so much other markets that represent a lot of money for Apple. The iPhone by itself represents more than all Microsoft (Windows, Office, Xbox, Phones, Zunes, Skype, etc...). So, nobody can be 200% sure that Apple won't enter some markets that could bring enough money to make them a $1 trillion company. zunguri2 Fri, 02 Mar 2012 20:16:08 -0500 Easiest way for AAPL to get to $1T is to trade at 30X earnings. :-P New iPad, new Apple TV, iPhone 5, 8" iPad, big screen, and airplay everywhere... all from the inside. On the outside we see the conversion from feature to smartphones continuing, the beginning of consumer awareness of the cloud, casual computing, OTT media, and ability to use iPads for real work. That's a lot of drivers! Add on a 20% CAGR 5-year forecast to the revenue graph and it looks absolutely unrealistic. However, not in the way that it would be unrealistic applied to P&G; it looks woefully pessimistic! It sure makes any prediction that Apple is about to tank sound...well, stupid. James DeRoest Fri, 02 Mar 2012 11:19:11 -0500 I'm an Apple fan and I reckon your article is about right. These are huge numbers that have to be doubled up on, and the only thing left is enterprise iPhone/iPad, enterprise and home Macs, and China. Not sure I'd bet against Apple these days considering they called the iPod right, the iPhone right, the iPad right, iTunes right, App Store right etc! One hell of a track record! However, now do a justification for Amazon's 100+P/E ;) Adam Hartung, Chicago, IL Fri, 02 Mar 2012 09:41:38 -0500 Your comparisons are really not relevant. What distinguishes Apple from your comparison companies is innovation. Exxon-Mobil has had NO innovation for 50 years - it's value is simply based on how much oil it owns and commodity prices. Microsoft completely missed the mobile wave, lacking any products in smartphone or tablets. Cisco locked-in on its network products before 2000 and hasn't given us any exciting new products since. JPMorganChase has not innovated, and has been helped only by a regulatory environment that helped it accumulate cheap assets. Dell and HP explicitly undertook strategies that eschewed innovation in favor of being a Microsoft product developer - thus missing the mobile wave and offering no new products. IBM has brought no exciting new products to market since the PC in 1980, and grows via "execution" for large data centers. What distinguishes Apple is its ability to study user needs and develop new products meeting those needs. It is a chronic innovator. Unlike newspapers, who have faltered because they decided to ignore on-line news distribution as they focused on paper, Apple recognized the focus on mobile and invested heavily in products that were mobile rather than remaining stuck trying to defend the Mac. lancetw Fri, 02 Mar 2012 08:18:19 -0500 I'm just curious, Henry, what happens when the editor in chief of a website gets three strikes? Will you not be able to comment any more? Will you not be able to post stories any more? KBB Thu, 01 Mar 2012 20:46:15 -0500 This is simply a click-bait Article. Your self rationalizing on both ends of the spectrum, with a Title that is misleading toward your own personal opinion (that Apple WILL get to a Trillion). Apple has ALREADY shattered the "Laws of large numbers". And with our thinking caps on, we can see that they have INCREDIBLE room for growth. They just signed to China's THIRD biggest Cell Phone carrier (the only one they were on before, was China's 7th, I believe). This means that iPhone market share in China will be IMMENSELY higher, and they STILL haven't tapped into near their potential there. That alone will soar the Stock in due time, as the results show up from it. Fact is, AAPL already SHOULD be at a Trillion dollar market cap, and over $1,000 a Share. With a company growing almost 100% YOY, and a horridly low 15 P/E, and when you have AMZN with a ridiculous 150 P/E (WHO is crazy enough to Invest in that?!), you see that AAPL at over $1,000 right now, should be a reality. Let's also not forget, that Apple has currently *20%* of their $500+Billion market cap IN THE BANK. In a couple of years (or maybe even this year) they will have 20+% of their 1 TRILLION, *in the Bank*. Forget about "who did what", it doesn't apply, and Apple proves that every year, when the naysayers, haters, and fear mongers (i.e, those who are sour that they didn't buy into the company already.... when it's never too late), the Laws of "What happened before" simply don't apply. Stu Thu, 01 Mar 2012 17:30:40 -0500 MSFT averages 55M shares every day. That would be 550 million shares in the past 10 days. But the $ amounts are an order of magnitude less. Also, not sure you really follow the stock market close enough. You want to know where the volume is coming from? Go look at the options market. That will really open your eyes once you realize each option traded is equal to 100 shares. i.e. today's $545 weekly call volume represented 5 million shares. And that's just one strike price. <a href="" target="_blank"></a> RattyUK Thu, 01 Mar 2012 15:09:13 -0500 You missed the point, mr toll. You cannot do it legally. But I can do it legally on my machine. Also I can run all the games you claim I cannot run. Yawn. You are boring. Keith Jurow Thu, 01 Mar 2012 15:08:38 -0500 Sorry. My computer's been giving me some problems today. When Apple hit 526 about two weeks ago then collapsed to close at 498, over 53 million shares traded. That's roughly $27 billion+ that went into one stock. I've never seen anything like that. In the past ten days, 210 million shares of Apple have traded. The total float is only 933 million shares. I don't care how great a company Apple is. No one disputes that. Does anyone really think that there is enough institutional money out there to pour into Apple at this volume and price? Do the math. Institutional cash is very low. As I see it, the really dumb money is now going into Apple. Beware! Keith Jurow Thu, 01 Mar 2012 14:59:42 -0500 While I write Minyanville's Housing Market Report, I do follow the stock market closely. I haven't seen a single comment about the actual trading of Apple. I've been reading charts for decades and what's been happening with Apple is astonishing. kennyrosenyc Thu, 01 Mar 2012 14:01:05 -0500 Yes I can boot my PC to Macs OS it's been that way since Apple switched ti Intel Processors. In fact Amari makes high end workstations that feature either or both. It doesn't matter that you can boot Windows on a Mac. Troll the forums for game development and you will find that niether Direct X 11 nor the forthcoming Direct X 11.1 will run on a Mac. It doesn't matter how many iPads Apple sells they're bragging about the fact that they have a zillion apps but the truth is they have a zillion copies of the same apps by different developers (how many GPS apps do you need?). Also Microsoft doesn't make hardware (aside from the XBox). The real question here is whether Apple can do both as effectively as Microsoft can do one. I'm not saying that Apple is going anywhere, they're obviously not. But to this whole 'Apple is God' attitude is silly and childish. They have had a stupendous run, congrats. But they are basically selling what developers want to call a 'Content Delivery Device'. Bottom line is this. When Jobs announced the iCloud he photographed in front of racks of HP servers. They're using Microsoft's Azure and Amazon's cloud platforms to run it. Microsoft offers 25GB of space Apple offers 5GB. Microsoft already has what Apple wants all they have to do is put it together right. Which apparently they have as Windows 8 is supposedly exactly the same code for all devices. You can play an XBox game on a Windows 8 phone. You can't even play an XBox quality game on an Apple desktop. You also can't design anything on a tablet. Yes, there are design apps for the iPad but, speaking as a designer, they bite. Even Adobe's little app is a joke compared to Photoshop. And by the time tablets in general catch up to computers.........well computers will still be waaaaay ahead. The people making money with computers know this. And they also know that in ten years computers may very well be the only way left in this country to make any real money. So where does that leave a tablet owner? Sitting in a corner paying someone like me a lot of money to entertain them? Lost and confused about why they can't do all the same things that they could with a computer? Do you really think people are buying entire Apple systems (Phone, Tablet & computer)? Nope, people are buying iPads because they think they're going to replace computers entirely. Which they will not ....ever. It takes a powerful computer to design a powerful tablet period and Apple cannot create a powerful computer for less than $10,000 (thatsthe cost of a professional Final Cut Pro Workstation) The PC equvalent was more like $3,000 and gave you far more versatility. Windows 8 has already beaten them security wise in all the polls. I think Apple will remain where it is. Yuri S Thu, 01 Mar 2012 13:36:02 -0500 I hope you are talking about metaphorical bullets, and referring to traders - in which case I would disagree about not reading or thinking. Unless you are talking about real bullets, implying minorities who rhyme with triggers - then I would agree on no reading or thinking part, but why would they own AAPL or any other stock for that matter. You can't buy stocks with food stamps. RattyUK Thu, 01 Mar 2012 13:10:24 -0500 OK I'll bite. "Microsoft has a gesture and voice controlled, video streaming, music streaming device already in 32 million households. It is called the XBox. It has more game titles than Apple has software titles and costs $199." Plus the $60 bucks a year to actually use it on the Network. 66 Million users since 2003 compared to a measly 55 million iPad owners in less than 2 years. "Apple will never get that audience as the XBox will be upgraded (via download) to Windows 8 as well." Prediction: Apple will exceed the Xbox 360 numbers with the iPad alone next quarter. "Also Microsoft will not give Apple an up to date version of Direct X, so basically you can't really play or even write a AAA game with a Mac unless you use that primordial ooze called Open GL" Funny that I can boot my Mac into Windows 8. Officially. Can your PC boot OSX officially? "if you take out the iPad and iPhone Apple only sold 5 million computers." But I would suggest from the figures leading up to Christmas that a lot of people bought iPads or other iOS devices instead of traditional desktop PCs. "Employers argue that tablets will not allow you to efficiently execute basic taskes like cutting and pasting text so why bother?" What ever. Chinese Apple Pie Thu, 01 Mar 2012 13:00:28 -0500 With most of Apple's cash held outside of the country, shares held by whomever and wherever, and their manufacturing adding to the Chinese GDP, how is that money staying in America? kennyrosenyc Thu, 01 Mar 2012 12:56:17 -0500 This is quite interesting. I see a lot of angry posts here, but nobody is actually considering 'reality'. True, Apple is making money. They may even get close to that rediculous number but the TV will be the killer. You see....... Microsoft has a gesture and voice controlled, video streaming, music streaming device already in 32 million households. It is called the XBox. It has more game titles than Apple has software titles and costs $199. Apple will never get that audience as the XBox will be upgraded (via download) to Windows 8 as well. Samsung has already upped the ante on that by releasing both Quad and Ultra HD 'Smart' sets worldwide (AMD & nVidia graphics cards also support this. Where is Apple? Making their first HD TV). The 2012 Olympics are being broadcast in Quad-HD. Also Microsoft will not give Apple an up to date version of Direct X, so basically you can't really play or even write a AAA game with a Mac unless you use that primordial ooze called Open GL (which Microsoft also created). The games industry is where it's at. I do visual effects and game design and can tell you that this is why you are being inundated with bad comic book movies - the studios own a percentage of the games as well. Corporate Entertainment in and of itself is dying a slow death. Writers are signing exclusive deals with Amazon because WHO NEEDS A PUBLISHER? I can output an EBook AND design a website in 20 minutes. Pretty soon film and music will both go the same way. (In fact I worked with BMW Films back when they started doing it 10 years ago it just hasn't gotten big enough yet.) Microsoft sold 400 million copies of Windows 7 last year. Meanwhile if you take out the iPad and iPhone Apple only sold 5 million computers. This has created an outburst among developers. They want the definition of a 'computer' written in stone. So far it requires a keyboard and a monitor (virtual touchscreen keyboards do not count). And a recent article pointed out that most businesses are adopting a 'Bring Your Own Device' strategy to cut costs so the only reason you find iPads in offices is because the employees are buying them- not the employers. Employers argue that tablets will not allow you to efficiently execute basic taskes like cutting and pasting text so why bother? cryptblade Thu, 01 Mar 2012 12:50:57 -0500 more like "as long as the money stays in America, I'm happy. Go, Apple." ....what makes you think the money stays in America? Just because it's an "American" company? Black & Decker was an American company too. MMM-Hmm cryptblade Thu, 01 Mar 2012 12:49:18 -0500 there that much of a difference between provocateur and con artist? seems to me, the lines, thin or not, get .... blurred often. ...but really AAPL at over $500 a share...with GOOG at over $600, what's the big deal? both companies are great to invest...IF you get in on the right time. Sell it by Zealot Thu, 01 Mar 2012 12:37:56 -0500 Henry are you referring to the hedge funds who hold large amounts of AAPL? 2 and 20 for holding AAPL? Sounds like a good racket. I'll be starting an AAPL only fund, please send $1 million dollars. Gianni Avertino Thu, 01 Mar 2012 12:06:36 -0500 With the money they have in the bank, paying out dividends would increase the P/E. Netpointers rnc Thu, 01 Mar 2012 11:44:18 -0500 And those songs and apps give apple the largest ecommerce operation in the world, no the $ don't add alot, but in terms of eco-system and analytics thier significance cannot be understated (don't own a single apple product, shares yes) Gordon Thu, 01 Mar 2012 11:37:24 -0500 Bludgeon gets paid to be a provocateur. he's come along way from former charlatan and con artist. cryptblade Thu, 01 Mar 2012 11:31:23 -0500 ...gotta admit...saying AAPL will go to $1000 a share will get traction and page views. whether it's positive or not is not that important is it? Gordon Thu, 01 Mar 2012 11:22:09 -0500 long since 2004 and waiting for $650??????? and "not greedy"???????? Apple Turnover Thu, 01 Mar 2012 11:19:14 -0500 Long since 2004. I'm not too concerned whether or not it reaches a trillion dollar market cap. I'll be happy if Apple merely hits $650 a share and stays at that level for a stretch. I'm not overly greedy as most are. I'll have more than enough to live comfortably at that level. I'm sure there are plenty of American iHaters out there that desperately want to see Apple fail because they like Microsoft or Google, but hey, as long as the money stays in America, I'm happy. Go, Apple. stotty Thu, 01 Mar 2012 11:01:21 -0500 Here's the thing, Henry. Is it important that Apple garner a $1 trillion market cap? It's really not. People become infatuated with ideas and lately the idea of Apple reaching $1 trillion in market cap has everyone in a spin. If it doesn't, does that mean that Apple has failed? I was forturnate enough to realize early on promise of the iPod and so I have done very nicely owning the stock since 2005. If it doubles from here then that is great, but from my perspective Apple is perhaps the most remarkable turnaround story in the history of business. If the market catches up with Apple and it cannot overcome the obstacles that you lay out in your article, it will not, in my mind, diminish the accomplishments of the company that very clearly has redefined the way in which we conduct our electronic lives. yuenwidjaja Thu, 01 Mar 2012 10:50:51 -0500 you dont have enough knowledge about apple. you said competitors will improve? which one? google? microsoft? google and microsoft do software only, apple does software for devices and dekstop, the hardware, and the ecosystem. So you think thoose competitors will be able to challenge apple without starting the company from the stratch like apple which does software hardware, ecosystem, etc? Sir Bunts Singh Singing October Symphony Thu, 01 Mar 2012 10:45:56 -0500 kick yourself again Henry....with 3 strikes you will know how it feels to be in BI prison for 24 hours. I think Apple will use their share price to buy someone big like a Mobile carrier or maybe pinterest or maybe a car company or hey even Sony. only way to reach $1000 is to enter the TV market or create a search product. Gordon Thu, 01 Mar 2012 10:43:11 -0500 Henry - is a 30 P/E for AAPL that far out of the realm of possibility? especially if the S&P goes to a new all time high (1,566) later this year and P/Es get stretched higher for everyone? remember P/Es for CSCO et al back in the tech bubble? like 120+. 30 does not seem crazy IMO at a new all time high. i have no stake in AAPL other than what's in VFIAX which is about 3% or so. Mojoron Thu, 01 Mar 2012 10:30:06 -0500 You are right, the stock price will never reach $1000, instead it will split. Brasso Thu, 01 Mar 2012 10:13:46 -0500 Ok....we will say "Software and Services", how is that Henry? Brasso Thu, 01 Mar 2012 10:12:03 -0500 BG....remember that crazy guy a few months ago that said that Apple would NEVER get to $500 and you politely set him straight? You always have a great perspective and have the ability to explain the validity of your points....Keep up the great work!! Brasso Stu Thu, 01 Mar 2012 10:05:28 -0500 Seriously. Here's another option to get to $1T. Apple continues to grow their earnings at the same rate they've done for the last 5 years. And the PE goes to 20. Which is still an absurdly low PE for ANY company with the 5 year growth rate Apple has. Basically, Wall Street severely undervalues AAPL because of 2 things. 1. They don't believe what they're seeing. WS uses PCs. 2. AAPL isn't paying a dividend. WS is greedy. If HP or Dell or Acer or IBM or any other tech company had the growth that Apple has had for the last 5 years, their PE would be more than double what Apple's is. And that alone would make Apple a $1T company. apple bro Thu, 01 Mar 2012 09:57:17 -0500 Here is the only thing I have to say. Yes people are scared of the price tag, but with a (cash adjusted out) PE of 11x earnings, valuation wise this stock is a steal. RattyUK Thu, 01 Mar 2012 09:49:34 -0500 Also, you didn't think that "you might be idiots" was slightly inflaming, despite the fact that you posited the theory yesterday? Nick Thu, 01 Mar 2012 09:39:36 -0500 People don't camp outside of a grocery store to buy coca cola. Apple sells products. They sell premium products at premium prices and consumers will do crazy things just for the opportunity to buy them. The iPad iPhone and Mac series are dominant products Hempshaw Thu, 01 Mar 2012 09:37:38 -0500 Reminds me of a good article I read in FT in early 2000 about 1-month before the &^%% hit the fan... how much revenues needed to grow, margins, etc. Nick Thu, 01 Mar 2012 09:34:34 -0500 That guy's a douche. I think an easier way for AAPL to reach that valuation is to up that multiple. Sure upping earnings and cash flow is a big help but realistically if they can get that P/E to 30 they are there. I think the best way for them to do that would be to crack the social media riddle. Look at LNKD's multiple, if AAPL can enter social and get even a little lift in P/E it would get them to $1Tr much much faster than doubling earnings. Henry Blodget Thu, 01 Mar 2012 09:27:52 -0500 I can't help it. But you're right of course. I already kicked myself to the Bleachers for feeding the first one. Beltway Greg Thu, 01 Mar 2012 09:27:29 -0500 Henry, you're too intelligent for this. Does LL Bean sell clothes? Does Starbucks sell coffee? Wendys makes better food than McDonalds but why does McDonalds dominate? I'll post later. Market is about to open. Holly Martin Thu, 01 Mar 2012 09:26:51 -0500 They sell an experience, just like coke doesn't sell sugared water. Holly Martin Thu, 01 Mar 2012 09:23:58 -0500 It will become a $1 trillion dollar company because of inflation. If you remember at one point we never had billion dollar companies either. RattyUK Thu, 01 Mar 2012 09:22:12 -0500 I think the issue that the other two posters have is the regularity of your "talk 'em up, knock 'em down" articles. Something you do pretty regularly and mostly in terms of Apple. Yes it is always nice to see two sides of every story, it's just you tend to post such radically differing you are either borderline schizophrenic or you have economic reasons for doing so. During a recession or whatever it is we are currently in - but aren't allowed to name - Apple has consistently earned. The only time it missed (quarter before last) it only missed by the guesswork that the street had and actually managed to beat considerably what they promised to deliver. "If free market capitalism works the way it has in the past, competitors will gradually eat into Apple's humongous profit margin. Right now, people are willing to pay a premium for Apple products, and Apple's manufacturing processes are more efficient than those of its competitors. But Apple's competitors should continue to improve. And as Apple's competitors get better and more efficient, Apple's ability to charge such a premium for its products may fade." I think you are missing something at the moment with those points and that is brand loyalty. Apple's customers have it in spades. They also have something approaching a four year investment in Apps that work across all their devices, they aren't going to up and leave for something else and start again. "For a massive tech company with solid revenue growth and a shrinking profit margin, an earnings multiple of 10X-12X might be reasonable." Would you care to expand on Amazons current 131.16 P/E then? And it's not like you reach a serious conclusion. "It might be the first, it might not" is definitely sitting on the fence, despite you headline, and despite the fact you are SHOUTING IT IN ALL CAPS> Henry Blodget Thu, 01 Mar 2012 09:22:04 -0500 They don't sell electronic gadgets? Then what do they sell? (Please don't say "songs" or "apps." Those make up a tiny fraction of revenue, and they're completely dependent on the hardware sales.) Keyur Thu, 01 Mar 2012 09:21:31 -0500 Great Read. Keep it up! jmarceno Thu, 01 Mar 2012 09:19:46 -0500 Good article... with no "fanboysims" like we ever see about apple. Congrts Beltway Greg Thu, 01 Mar 2012 09:16:49 -0500 First, your premise is wrong, it does not have to make $65B in a single year to reach $1000/share and actually, given the last split, it is already at $1000/share. To say they only sell "electronic gadgets" shows a stunning, which I know isn't true, lack of appreciation for what Apple does sell. Coke only sells drinks and that has worked out pretty well for them for about the last century. Apple is held back by this type of logic and if people believed that the IPhone and IPad were going to sell the way they have Apple would be at $800-900/share. People talk about the "reality distortion field" which surounds Apple but I would argue (correctly given the evidence) that the truly distorted point of view comes from journalists, many of whom don't hold a single equity, and analysts, who have been proven wrong on a regular basis. The only thing that can stop Apple are the courts or some macro event like another banking crisis. Apple is controlled by the funds and it would be sold in the event of a crisis to raise cash. I truly believe that absent a macro event $650 is the floor for Apple this year. Notice I said floor, not top. If it were valued like Amazon Apple would be at what $2000+ per share? Now tell me who is crazy? Henry Blodget Thu, 01 Mar 2012 09:09:51 -0500 Wow, that didn't take long. The zealots are already here. Which reminds me... one of the biggest risks to Apple's stock is that it's owned by a lot of people who don't read or think. They just spray bullets. Henry Blodget Thu, 01 Mar 2012 09:08:59 -0500 I would take you a lot more seriously if you actually said something intelligent instead of just firing away. Do you have ANYTHING to say about the points I made above? ANY reaction? ANYTHING to contribute? Or do you just start off every conversation by insulting people? Paul Benjou Thu, 01 Mar 2012 09:06:24 -0500 There is only one idiot in this room ...the one that's posting Henry, henry, henry Thu, 01 Mar 2012 08:59:58 -0500 Your ignorant posts use to anger me until I figured out that the only thing you care about is your clicks and you actually have no loyalty to any value or anything in general but your own personal GREED.