Why the Aussie Is Ailing

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Published: Monday, 21 Jan 2013 | 1:05 PM ET
Kelley Holland By: | Special to CNBC
Maisant Ludovic | hemis.fr | Getty Images

You would think a solid Chinese GDP report would lift the Australian dollar, what with China being Australia's biggest trading partner and all.

Plenty of investors did think that - and they were proved wrong on Friday.

"Investors got all bulled up into the China numbers," says Amelia Bourdeau, director of foreign exchange at Westpac Institutional Bank. But while GDP did improve, "the outcome for the China data was already priced," she adds, so the Aussie moved lower after the report.

But Bourdeau told CNBC's Melissa Lee she thinks the Australian dollar is poised to rise again.

Stock market volatility has been low, which is usually good for the Aussie, Bourdeau says. "I think overall the backdrop to the risk scenario is constructive, and I want to go for another run up."

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Bourdeau wants to buy the Australian dollar on a pullback to 1.0460. "I think the market has some bids sitting around at that level that make it very interesting support," she says. She wants to set a stop at 1.0360 and a target at 1.0650, above the hard-to-break 1.0600 level.

Andrew Busch, a CNBC contributor, is more bearish. He points out that Australia recently reported a "crummy" unemployment rate, and inflation in New Zealand is very soft. "Either the Chinese numbers are priced in or bad things are happening in Australia. There's a disconnect," he says, and he wants to sell the currency until it breaks above 1.0650.

But Todd Gordon, co-head of research and trading at Aspen Trading Group, is relatively neutral. He thinks risk appetite is solid, but he is frustrated by the Aussie's seeming inability to move above 1.0600. "When this thing goes, it's going to go," he says. "But I don't know when."




The Australian dollar fell after China reported solid GDP growth, puzzling currency investors. This strategist thinks the Aussie is poised to rise again, and she has a trading plan.
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