@techreport{NBERw16919, title = "When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China", author = "Barry Eichengreen and Donghyun Park and Kwanho Shin", institution = "National Bureau of Economic Research", type = "Working Paper", series = "Working Paper Series", number = "16919", year = "2011", month = "March", doi = {10.3386/w16919}, URL = "http://www.nber.org/papers/w16919", abstract = {Using international data starting in 1957, we construct a sample of cases where fast-growing economies slow down. The evidence suggests that rapidly growing economies slow down significantly, in the sense that the growth rate downshifts by at least 2 percentage points, when their per capita incomes reach around $17,000 US in year-2005 constant international prices, a level that China should achieve by or soon after 2015. Among our more provocative findings is that growth slowdowns are more likely in countries that maintain undervalued real exchange rates.}, }