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The strange case of the incredible shrinking PM

March 24, 2004

Sometimes Howard does not know when to let go. And it is starting to hurt his Government.

If there was such a thing as an "incredibility index", John Howard's rating on it would be skyrocketing.

It's odd that Howard doesn't mind doing U-turns on policy when he thinks it necessary, but when propositions are obviously wrong, he and the Government stick to them like glue, long after reality suggests it would be better to cut losses.

One such proposition is the belief in the existence of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, which the Government has been extraordinarily reluctant to abandon. Another is the insistence that there is no relation between a country's backing for the Iraq war and the possible threat of terrorist action against that country.

The "lines" are strictly enforced, as Mick Keelty's experience dramatised, or self-enforced, as Robert Hill showed yesterday. Hill told a "doorstop" media conference that Australia was "now confident that there are no weapons of mass destruction and no dictator that will use them against his own people or his neighbours".

Perfectly reasonable - but not the party line. Before you could say WMD, Hill had a statement out called, quaintly, "Context of Comments at Today's Doorstop". His "no WMD" comment "related to the removal of the threat rather than a judgement on whether such weapons might still be found", Hill said, adding that it would be "unwise" to make a final judgement on that while the Survey Group continued its work. Later in the Senate, Hill was still dancing on a pin, explaining what he really, really had meant.

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Not only was his clarification silly but his timing was appalling. Almost simultaneously, news agencies began reporting former US weapons inspector David Kay warning about the dangers of the US not admitting mistakes it made in explaining why it went to war.

"What I find most disturbing around Washington... is the belief... you can never admit you're wrong," Kay said. For Washington substitute Canberra.

Security and even the Iraq issue are getting harder by the day for the Government.

Australians are deceived by none of this nonsense. In earlier polling two thirds have said they were knowingly or unknowingly misled by the Government over whether Iraq had WMD. Now they have flatly disagreed with Howard's line that the war has not made us more of a target. In yesterday's Newspoll, 65 per cent thought Australia's involvement boosted the chance of a terrorist attack.

Yet there was Howard in the party room yesterday again insisting there had been no advice that Australia had been at greater risk. Let it go, the backbenchers must have felt like screaming. Just let it go. The public doesn't swallow it, and what's the use of arguing with them?

Howard sounds like (the Disney version of) the Queen in Alice in Wonderland. Alice: "I'm trying to find my way home." Queen: "Your way? All ways here are my ways!"

"A government of control freaks," Mark Latham said yesterday, and he has a point.

There is a subtle difference between remaining "on message" and demanding orthodoxy. The first is necessary political tidiness; the latter can lead to disastrous obsessions and diversions, like the Keelty affair.

Stifling dissent eventually brings a backlash, or atrophies thinking. The back bench hardly registered a peep during the Iraq war, but recently it has been willing to complain about all sorts of other issues.

The Government has sat on the public service. This risks missing out on what it doesn't want to hear but needs to know; the other side of the coin is that, according to a Sydney Morning Herald report this week, investigations into public service leaks are at a record high.

A leader has a bank account of political capital; over the years he or she adds to it but more often is spending it. A vital part of this capital is what's in the "trust" account.

People these days factor in a Howard penchant for literalness that sometimes leave things short of the truth. A Newspoll this month had Latham rating more than Howard on trustworthiness: Latham 61 per cent, Howard 55 per cent (still high, to be fair).

Howard told the party room yesterday he didn't detect any "generic hostility" to the Government but warned the polls would remain where they were (with Labor well ahead) for a time. What, however, is to turn them around?

Security and even the Iraq issue are getting harder by the day for the Government. Labor is becoming more confident on that ground, with a strategy that sees it taking a softly-softly approach to Government proposals for more powers - the most recent being a decision to let police hold terrorist suspects longer - but being bolder on other security fronts.

Sensing Iraq is turning sour for the Government, Latham yesterday held out the prospect of the Australian forces being home for Christmas.

As he returned to tougher conflictive politics this week, Latham stepped up his attack over the Government's commitment to the Iraq war. That war "hasn't made the world a safer place", he declared, a line difficult to dispute when there are frequent bombings in Iraq, terrorist attacks elsewhere and the Middle East continues to be a disaster area.

Latham adds that the "really damaging thing" about Iraq is that it distracted from the main game of targeting the terrorists; "that error that was made in terms of policy has diverted us from the real task that would have added so much to Australia's national security".

For quite a while Iraq was dangerous ground for Labor because the war was surrounded by a certain buzz of patriotism, even for those doubtful about its wisdom. That's gone and while Labor has to be careful, it is becoming more testing for Howard, who could end up fighting an old war that is starting to claim political victims a long way from Baghdad.

Michelle Grattan is political editor of The Age.