The dilemma: pulling out as soon as possible while maintaining security

Change of insurgents' tactics has put troops in greater danger but pressure exists to stay

In an ideal world, the British military would like to make a swift, early and orderly withdrawal from Basra, where thousands of troops have been based since the start of the second Gulf war. But officials and independent analysts made it clear yesterday that none of those aspirations was likely to be fulfilled.

The government is deeply frustrated by the failure of the Iraqis to build up a credible and adequate army and police force in Basra, thereby scuppering plans for a significant and politically popular cut in Britain's military presence there.

In the next couple of months, the British garrison at Basra Palace, described by a Labour MP recently there as a "force surrounded like cowboys and indians", will strike camp and hand it over to the Iraqis. That would leave 5,000 British troops in a single base, at the airport on the western outskirts of the city.

The question being fiercely debated in British military circles is: what happens then?

The idea is that the troops held up around Basra airport will be on what ministers call "overwatch" - they will be there to help Iraqi forces in a crisis, and continue to train them. Yet defence officials say 5,000 is barely enough for the task. Military commentators say the force would soon become demoralised and besieged.

There is evidence from recent attacks that insurgents - Iran-backed militia, rogue militia elements and criminal gangs, the Ministry of Defence calls them - have changed their tactics by firing rockets and mortars at the base in attacks which have already killed British soldiers there. Charles Heyman, a former army officer and author of The Armed Forces of the UK, warned yesterday they could be "sitting ducks".

British troops are the targets of 90% of attacks in Basra; the MoD announced yesterday that a soldier from 2nd Battalion The Royal Welsh was killed by small arms fire during an operation in Basra on Monday night.

Mr Heyman suggested yesterday that the army should "blow everything up and give as little warning as possible" before leaving Basra. The MoD is cagey about exactly how many military vehicles they have in the area. But Mr Heyman calculates there must be about 30 Challenger 2 battle tanks, about 90 Warrior armoured vehicles and scores of other armoured vehicles, including ageing Land Rovers, and new Mastiffs and Bulldogs which provide better protection for British troops.

The army suggests they will be driven out of Iraq to Kuwait in convoys, though they made it clear they had not given the issue much thought. It would be easier for Britain's squadrons of Sea King, Merlin and Lynx helicopters, and Hercules transport planes to fly off.

Most British military commanders say Britain should get out of Iraq as soon as possible. "If we want the Iraqis to be responsible for their own security then there comes a point when they must do that. Otherwise there's no point in training them," a senior defence source said.

Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock Stirrup, the chief of defence staff, echoed the frustration in a recent interview with the BBC. Basra had been a success, he said, though that depended on "what your intepretation of the mission was in the first place". The mission was to "get the place and the people to a state where Iraqis could run this part of the country" he said, adding pointedly, "if they chose to".

Brigadier Chris Hughes, the MoD's most senior officer responsible for military commitments, told the Commons defence committee last week that an Iraqi general had told him some police officers were "totally incompetent".

Yet the government continues to insist that when and how many British troops leave Iraq is "conditions-based" - it would depend on the ability of the Iraqi forces to maintain security. Bob Ainsworth, the new armed forces minister also just back from Basra, told the defence committee: "We cannot hand over to a vacuum."

Sir Jock's comments reflect the feeling among the military - there's just so much they can do. They are lowering expectations at a time their presence in Iraq is increasingly unpopular at home.
