Russia: Moment Of Truth


The Nation Must Choose Between The Ways Of The Past And Promises For The Future

June 16, 1996|By E.A. TORRIERO Staff Writer

The reformer does the twist. The hard-liner bangs his fist.

In politics, style sometimes tells a lot about substance. And in Russia, a proud country on the precipice of a momentous decision, the choice is between the daring new ways of the West and the sure but somber ways of the past.

That's what is at stake today when 106 million Russian voters go to 93,500 polling places across 11 time zones.

Incumbent President Boris Yeltsin has run a populist campaign, promising that his road to Western-style democracy, while marked with pain and economic pitfalls, will succeed.

Communist challenger Gennady Zyuganov - one of nine candidates pitted against Yeltsin - is urging Russians to turn back toward the Soviet path, where an iron-fisted bureaucracy controlled - but also took care of - the tens of millions of common folk who inhabit the vast landscape.

Most polls have shown Yeltsin ahead but his lead has been dwindling. The polls in the former Soviet republics are notoriously unreliable, and U.S. observers caution that a disenchanted and bitter Russian electorate is capable of wide swings.

Official results may not be known for 10 days to two weeks, but political observers say it's likely neither candidate will get enough votes to avoid a July runoff.

For the United States, a Communist at Russia's helm would cause political and diplomatic problems.

President Clinton, also facing re-election, would have to decide thorny policy issues such as whether to cancel bank loans if a Communist regime adopted an anti-U.S. stance. Military agreements also could be jeopardized, creating a political headache for Clinton, analysts say.

In the eyes of the West, the voters' choice is clear: capitalism vs. communism. Not only would a win by Zyuganov send shudders through the free world, it would undercut Russia's already beleaguered economy, many U.S. observers say.

"If Zyuganov wins, it would represent a serious setback for economic relations," said Blake Marshall, vice president of the U.S.-Russia Business Council in Washington. "It would give anyone doing business with Russia great pause to see a movement toward increased state controls and state prices. It is already difficult to do business in Russia. Why make it worse?''

To many Americans, it is inconceivable that after 74 years of Communist tyranny, ending in 1991, Russians would consider returning to a life in which even speaking out was forbidden. Western observers point to 2,500 commercial banks that have opened since 1991 and the creation of 900,000 small businesses as examples of how democracy has brought economic freedom.

But Americans don't live in Russia, where corruption is rampant, and a confused, impoverished people seem at wit's end, experts say. Russians are so on edge that there is worry about election-day violence, and so much is at stake that fraud could mar the vote counts.

"The present system has not benefited the average guy," said Stanley Klein, a political scientist at Long Island University who returned last week from observing the Russian electoral process. "It's difficult for Americans to understand that.

"Their capitalism is not our capitalism," he said. "Corruption rules the country. So the average guy sees no change. Nothing works under the new system, but nothing worked under the old system. The difference is that at least people got paid in the old days."

Private and public companies in Russia now owe workers $4 million in back pay. Pensioners' income is a measly $14 a month - even with a recent raise.

Teachers earn $100 a month - if they are lucky enough to be paid - and that's barely enough to buy a nice pair of running shoes in Moscow. The average Russian wage is $153 a month - a 10 percent drop from when market reforms began in 1992.

Russia is $40 billion in debt to Western nations and recently took another $10.2 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund.

"The Russian economy is broke," said Dean Tucker, an economist at Oglethorphe University in Atlanta who spent a month in Russia recently. "There's a lot of pessimism on the streets."

Staples of American life are everywhere in Moscow, from Visa ads on billboards to Baywatch on television. But Russians can only dream of the American way of life and can hardly afford even a taste of those Snickers bars now in markets.

"There's a lot of consumer goods available, but [most) people don't have the money to buy them," Tucker said.

State of economy, crime

The reeling economy drives almost every aspect of Russian life. Crime has doubled since 1991, to 2.7 million criminal acts a year, and 8,000 organized crime groups have sprouted up to run every-thing from the black market to the drug trade. At least 70 percent of the banks are under the control of mobs, U.S. diplomats estimate.

Because they fear for their safety, it's no wonder Russians are seriously debating whether life was better under the Communists.

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