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Sandy Aside, Weather Puts 2012 in Record Books

Even though it's mid-December, blooms are evident in Central Park. ENLARGE
Even though it's mid-December, blooms are evident in Central Park. Cassandra Giraldo for The Wall Street Journal

New York City is poised to finish its warmest year since modern record-keeping began, with an average temperature projected to top 57.2 degrees.

A Wall Street Journal analysis of federal temperature data from an observation station at Central Park puts 2012 on course to surpass the three-way tie for the city's warmest year, which is currently shared by 1990, 1991 and 1998.


With less than two weeks left in December, it would take an unprecedented cold snap—with a deeper freeze than January 1918, the coldest month in city history—to keep the current year out of the record books. If the remainder of December follows the long-range forecast, the year would end with an average temperature of 57.3 degrees.

"If you were to end the year right now, we would finish a 10th of a degree above 1991, which was the current warmest year on record," said David Stark, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Upton, N.Y. He cautioned that the final result remains uncertain at this point.

Temperature records at Central Park date back to 1869, the longest-running set of government weather data in the five boroughs. Eight of the 10 warmest years in that span have occurred since 1990.

Tree-ring analysis and other proxy data compiled by climate scientists suggest 2012 might be the warmest since the Dutch opened the trading post of New Amsterdam in 1624, said William Solecki, director of the CUNY Institute for Sustainable Cities at Hunter College.

"I think it is entirely possible that 2012 might be the warmest year for the city since its founding," he said.

November featured the city's earliest snowstorm in more than a century, helping to possibly obscure the broader warming trend over the course of 2012. The current month, for instance, could end as one of the 10 warmest Decembers in Central Park since the Civil War. More than 80% of the daily temperature averages in December so far have been warmer than normal, according to the data.

A temperature milestone might carry extra significance just three months after the devastation of superstorm Sandy, which touched off a discussion about possible links between the region's shifting climate and extreme weather.

In the days after the storm, for instance, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg framed his endorsement in the presidential election as a response to climate politics.

But for scientists, the more urgent discussion isn't the prospect for more big storms—it is the city's vulnerability to increasingly balmy temperatures.

"In what it means for the future, the temperature is as big a story as Sandy," said Adam Sobel, an atmospheric scientist at Columbia University.

"As a symbol, it's significant," he added. "But if next year doesn't break the record again, it won't mean global warming has slowed."

Mr. Solecki, a co-chairman of the New York City Panel on Climate Change established by the mayor, said that a record-warm year could prompt a "discussion of how to make our critical infrastructure more resilient to heat-related stresses." But he also cautioned against investing too much meaning in any numerical milestone.

Not all New Yorkers with a careful eye on the unusually warm year are bothered by the apparent record-breaking temperatures.

After finishing up a morning jog in Brooklyn's Prospect Park earlier this month, Joanna Paterson reflected on the ways the weather has been good for certain segments of the local economy.

"As a fitness trainer, my business is more successful. People are feeling healthier, recovery times from illness are shorter," said Ms. Paterson, 40 years old. "More people going to the green market. To be able to use this park for more of the year is a huge benefit."

Just down the street, a coffee shop offered a sale: "Global warming got you down? Get a cold brew coffee and enjoy summer forever!"

Inside, Matt Easton, 42, sipped an espresso and mused on the likely temperature record for 2012. He was not as sanguine as the runner.

"It's less dramatic than Sandy," Mr. Easton said of the city's warmest year. "But in some ways it's a more frightening indicator."

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