• By
  • Alastair Gale
Associated Press
A North Korean anchorwoman announced the country’s successful launch on Wednesday. The image was taken from a TV screen.


A South Korean government official had it right when he said last week that a tarp over North Korea’s rocket tower meant there were limits to what could be determined about the progress towards launch.

But that didn’t stop others speculating about the likely launch timing based on aerial images. And pretty much everyone was proven wrong on Wednesday, when North Korea fired its rocket, apparently successfully.


People in Japan were wringing their hands over the same thing.

What led everyone down a blind alley was Pyongyang’s statement on Sunday that it might postpone the launch due to unspecified problems, and then its Monday announcement that it was extending the two-week launch window through to Dec. 29.

South Korea’s state-owned Yonhap news agency offered play-by-play updates from unnamed officials in South Korea of progress towards launch, culminating in the following after North Korea’s suggestion of a delay:

Monday – “Intelligence officials in Seoul say bad weather may have set back preparations for the liftoff, with images showing the site was covered with snow. Some officials forecast the launch could be delayed until next year considering inspections are still under way, as it usually takes time to fix problems of a long-range rocket.”

Tuesday – “North Korea is believed to be disassembling a long-range rocket, a senior military source in Seoul said, a day after Pyongyang announced it will extend its 13-day launch window due to technical problems.”


Following the launch on Wednesday, Yonhap pointed a burnt finger at the government with the following commentary and new theory about what happened at the launch site:

“Our government predicted the previous day that there would be no rocket launch this week based on its judgment that North Korea had taken a long range rocket from the launch pad to resolve a technical issue, but the prediction was wrong. There is word that North Korea may have assembled a new rocket at an assembly building without being detected by the outside and put the rocket back on the pad overnight for the launch.”

In a briefing Wednesday morning, a spokesman for the Defense Ministry distanced the government from the range of speculative local reports about the North’s rocket. “We saw what local media reported that but we haven’t confirmed any of it,” he said.

Meanwhile, presidential candidate Moon Jae-in took the opportunity to try and score a few points by knocking the government’s intelligence gathering ability.

“In the past few days, the government has informed the public that North Korea has taken apart the rocket and will not launch it. How can people trust a government that has had such weak North Korean information since the start of this regime and how can people trust the government’s security ability?” he said in a statement following the launch.

The episode brings back memories of the criticism the government faced almost exactly a year ago for not being aware of the death of Kim Jong Il before it was announced a few days later. Whether or not the criticism is fair given North Korea’s mastery of keeping critical information under wraps (literally in the case of rockets), today’s launch and the lack of forewarning about it is at least another reminder that “intelligence” about North Korea is often little more than guesswork.

–In-Soo Nam and Min Sun Lee contributed to this article.

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