

Nxstage Medical, Inc. Message Board

  • hoperalot hoperalot Dec 4, 2007 3:16 PM Flag

    I Repeat... Get This One While You Have Time

    Chech out product


    promise of future growth

    ......this one is CHEAP now!

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    • While I agree - I wouldn't tout the financials yet. I'd tout product, buildout, and potential.


    • 1/Q. Revenue $8,374,000/Cost Re. $9,917,000.
      2/Q. 10,031,000/ 11,511,000
      3.Q. 11,625,000/ 15,161,000
      Good pro.
      Selling General and ad.
      1/Q Cost. $9,743,000. 2/Q.$10,643,000. 3/Q. $11,564,000.
      1/Q. $53,190,000. 2/Q.$42,046,000. 3/Q.$32,383,000.
      Good Finan.

      • 1 Reply to dowdirect
      • I don't consider them good financials due to the secondary, the recent loan and it's terms, and probably another secondary or loan setting up I'm guessing in about a year as they continue the buildout.

        I consider good financials companies that generate cash - not eat it up. NXTM simply isn't there yet. Do they have enough cash to keep the doors open for a while - yes.

        They have the FDA approved product - this will be hard to screw up. But it could be screwed up. And cash management should be the key thing.

        I'm invested due to the potential - and the running start by having the approved product.

        I still think it's a bit generous to call them good financials. I do have both long and trading shares. By the time I consider the financials to be in good shape other folks will have 'discovered' this company, a good bit of the run will be over, and I probably will have sold most of my shares.


    • Excellent post---but I am in process of "falling in love" with NXTM.

      • 1 Reply to hoperalot
      • I administer therapy to patients with these machines in the Critical Care setting. Also, the U.S. government is invested in this company (Department of Defense). I know from personal experience, that these machines are used in many of the US Army and Air Force hospitals. In addition, they are used in Iraq and Afghanistan, in the deployed environment.

    • Jack,

      I can tell you that my shares in my trading acct cost basis is around 13 and my hold acct around 12. That said really they are almost free from the trading that I've done with NXTM.

      We did get a nice bounce today. Notice that we're probably not getting tax loss selling in this stock.

      On the CC's and in their documents they mention 'capturing' new patients. After someone is on a particular treatment typically they are resistant to change. This means that even if a competitor has a similar product that most MXTM users one would expect to continue to use NXTM - just wouldn't be much future growth.

      This is why they have to try and expand quickly - actually quicker than I would prefer (secondary, loan, etc.).

      Don't forget nocturnal dialysis is in trials at folks homes - and while not stated that pretty much HAS TO BE NXTM. Imagine that convenience.

      I think sales and marketing people can screw anything up (except their own compensation) as a generality. I've been involved in manufacturing and distribution for 25 years. I think I've seen more stupid moves by the guys in suits than the engineers and manufacturing folk. Then again every company is different. Notice that I constantly stress that they have THE approved product. That means there was vision, design engineering, manufacturing engineering,manufacturing, theoretically QC, FDA testing, etc.

      Now that they are onto the sales/marketing/training rollout they seem to be eating up even more money. Lets face it - how hard could it possibly be to market and sell this product? To the end user, to the dialysis centers, to anyone. The trainers I would think would be the bottle neck.

      I've seen far more greedy sales/marketing folks than engineering/manufacturing folks. The C-suite is it's own mess usually.

      Negatives that I see:

      1. Asleep at the switch on the cartridge issue.

      2. One guy (former Medisys owner) has way too large of share

      3. More possible secondaries (possibly loans)

      4. Stumble in sales, buildout, trainers.

      5. Not quick enough and competent competitor(s) arrive.

      There are more but these are some of the more important ones.

      Just think of all the medical companies that would love to buy this company if they stumble - and possibly if they don't.

      The razor/razor blade model is alive and well here. I can speculate several companies, medical device and just plain medical consumable companies, that would love an opportunity like this.

      There are several large institutional owners - not much retail. I actually forget who funded the loan - doesn't really matter. Us retail guys will be the last to know anything.

      It's kinda like fishing. They will start pushing the bait around (up or down in price) and we won't know what's going on until much later. Often there never is any news. When I think it's moved too much either way I take the other side and buy or sell some shares. Happens all the time with small stocks like this. Still doesn't mean us small fry retail guys can't make some money trading some shares. I just won't totally liquidate unless I think something has changed significantly.

      This will be 'discovered' when the financials improve and the institutional holders decide it's time to drum up interest in the retail sector. You'll know it if/when it comes. Suddenly more press releases, folks initiating coverage, more presentations at seminars, etc.

      I wish you well. If you or anyone else has anything of substance either pro or con that they would like to post that wouild be great. I've learned as much from shorts as longs in the time I've been investing.

      In short. Wonderful potential. They have the product. They just need to make sure they don't stumble on the buildout. (things like leaks, constantly needing funding, not finding trainers)


      • 1 Reply to davebugs
      • We have a NexStage Rep assigned to our facility. I can contact him anytime with any questions that I have. As far as the training goes, NexStage sends one of their representatives to teach the one day Dialysis class to our critical care RN's (written test administered and hands on training). Once a critical care RN has performed a minimum of 24hrs (3 divided sessions) of supervised dialysis therapy on a critical care patient (and a competency checklist is completed), then they become credentialed to perform dialysis in the ICU at that facility. Later, the Critical Care RN becomes a trainer of new dialysis users. Therefore, we only require one annual visit from the Nexstage Rep, to teach the formal class. We have designated competent users of the Nexstage machine (super users/trainers), to train new staff.

        I mention this, because, it is very easy to "roll out" a Nexstage dialysis machine at any facility with an RN (one annual visit by Nexstage). In the military, LPNs/LVNs perform dialysis as well. The cost should be minimum for Nexstage since we bear the majority of the burden of training our staff and maintaining our competencies.

        Their machine is so simple to use, it has built in software, telling you what to do (step by step), on the touch screen monitor. The instructions have images of the equipment (all in color), showing you how to set everything up.

    • Ladies and gentlemen, I have no idea about your financial decisions, but let a user with some world experience jump in with my analysis. I have non functioning kidneys and to stay alive I depend upon dialysis. My choices are, PD, stomach exchange, not available to me for medical reasons. HD in clinic, which I use, It has several drawbacks, but it keeps you alive and smiling. Has with it a diet that is best described as, "if it tastes good, spit it out". Fluid limitations one liter per day, measure your first cup of java in the AM. And then there is HD at home. The best choice of machinery is NxStage. To get an understanding of its desirability, get a copy of "Benefits of daily Dialysis" or 978.697.8243.
      Have no stock position on this or its competition.I am simply a patient and have a users position at heart. I am an advocate for dialysis patients and one of them my self.

      • 2 Replies to mcgee_28374
      • mcgee,

        Sorry - apparently I missed this post originally and just say it re-reading the thread to see if dow actually had any interesting points - on the short side.

        As I have stated here many times I am not in the industry - or even know anyone on dialysis. NXTM as I've stated here has gotta be a life changer - in a good way. Imagine the possiblilites of nocturnal as well.

        Please keep up updated on what relevant developments with NXTM and the rest of the industry that you happen to come across.

        At this point I mostly just listen to the qtrly calls and call the company when I have a question.

        I'd like to hear as much as possible from the folks that NXTM is actually effecting. Both positive and negative - and as timely as possible.

        If you have the willingness - I know that atleast I would appreciate it. I appreciate what you have already posted.


      • Best wishes to you my friend!

        Keep well--and a have a happy new year.

    • I Repeat............Who pays $15 for this stock?.

      • 2 Replies to dowdirect
      • Burn much cash, they need +-$50 to finish 2008.
        The next year, mas pay de interest and credit.(maybe need $100 million or more)
        The car is en bad direction.

      • Can't say who bought at 15. I can tell you that I sold a bit of it to them. Then I bought it back lower. I always keep a core postion.

        This company is far from stagnant. If you're betting against them I'n not saying that you're wrong. I'm just say that you had better be doing constant research due to the potential here.

        One bit of really good news and this one is off to the races.

        Then like I say - imagine all of the companies that would like this pretty much guaranteed revenue stream. Medical device makers come to mind, or perhaps much larger conglomerates like Phillips or even JNJ. A possible buyout is a small reason that I own this stock. But it's worth mentioning. Imagine what that would do to anybody short this stock. Purchasing this company with virtually unlimited potential would be nothing more than a rounding error to some of the larger medical companies.

        Do you have reasons for your statements - or just bashing?

        I can back up my position - not saying that I'm right - but I have actually done research, etc.

        If you have differing opinions I'd really like to discuss them. Perhaps atleast one of us could add to our knowledge.

        If you're simply a basher I've already treated you with too much respect and wasted too much of my time.


    • IR - Investor Relations.

      Someone from the outside never knows as much about what's going on as someone who actually works there.

      A lot of times internal IR folks are bound by what they can say - but atleast they know details so that they can answer summary questions.

      Like I said. A non-value added layer of complexity for those seeking information.

      She could be the most competent person in the world. But if she's not there all the time (an employee) the information just isn't there - or timely. Typically the 'spin' really increases though. Me - I'll take real, relative, timely facts - as much as they are allowed to give from someone witnessing day to day operations. Not someone who is basically told what to say.

      I have talked with 2 CFO's from similar sized companies today! Not just IR folks but CFO's.

      I recently sold my holdinigs in a decent company simply due to outsourcing IR.

      We each have our own standards when doing our DD. Over the years I have learned to make this a MAJOR standard.

      This may make no difference to you. I'm simply stating that it's definately a major issue with me.

      Notice none of this post is about NXTM's business, possibilities, financial position, etc.

      That's part of the point. It will be much more difficult to come by relevant facts to help determine whether to add, lighten up, or sell all my holdings and move on.

      I don't own companies that I cannot actively follow - especially the small companies.

      Just my opinions. But not a change for the better.


    • Thank you.