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Walgreen Co. Message Board

  • investora2z investora2z Jul 2, 2013 6:30 AM Flag

    Around crucial levels

    The earnings missed the analyst estimates and the stock took a beating. The earnings were not that bad as the revenues, net income and margins, all expanded. However, the expectations were for faster growth, higher expansion in margins etc. Fall in customer traffic also raised some concerns. Now it has fallen by about 14% from the highs made just before the earnings release. Most of the decline is attributable to the lower than expected performance, but a part of that is also linked to the fact that the stock had already done great over the last few quarters. So margin for error was less, and slippages were not at all welcome. The stock is still not stable and it seems that the selling is not totally over. The inherent strength of the stock may help it make a rebound and $44 will be a key level to watch in the short term. $40-42 is likely to provide support if that breaks. A sustainable revival will be possible if there is good growth in revenues. Growth in revenues is a must for improving financial strength. Some new products / segments may be explored. ChromaDex Corporation (CDXC) recently commercially launched Nicotinamide Riboside (NR), a molecule which is expected to be helpful in numerous indications. The dividends have remained stagnant, but the decline in the stock has obviously made the dividend yield slightly better. Further, going by the past performance, the company is likely to make a comeback and improve the financial performance (which is already reasonably good). That optimism could be one of the main reasons for maintaining a positive stance on the stock. However, one needs to remain cautious as future negative surprises could lead to more pressure on the stock. Like it or not, the analysts estimates do matter, and often dwarf a performance which is good in isolation.