Blazers rundown: A few issues and numbers to chew on about the NBA trade deadline

GM Neil Olshey and owner Paul Allen should have plenty to discuss between now and the NBA trade deadline at noon Thursday. (Photo by Bruce Ely/The Oregonian)
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on February 19, 2013 at 12:03 PM, updated February 20, 2013 at 4:38 PM

In the next three days, you're going to hear a lot of chatter about the NBA trade deadline. Some of it will be about the Trail Blazers, and it might puzzle you, make you angry, eager or something else.

You'll hear players deny that rumors don't affect them, that it's a business and they understand that. You'll hear coaches say they do talk to their players about rumors, they don't talk to their players about rumors, or they just leave that stuff to front office.

In other words, the same stuff you hear every year.

There have already been, and undoubtedly will be more, rumors about Blazers center J.J. Hickson. Yesterday, Yahoo's Adrian Wojnarowski reported that the Blazers are willing to move Hickson, but haven't found an appealing deal yet.


There are several factors Portland GM Neil Olshey and his staff must juggle:

The Blazers (25-28) are three games out of the No. 8 spot in the Western Conference after losing five games in a row before the All-Star break. They play only once, tonight at home against Phoenix, before Thursday's noon trade deadline. Olshey and staff have to decide whether to stand pat, or if it's worth trying to make a deal that will enhance a run at the postseason, or if they want to make a trade with a longer-term view in mind.

Olshey has expressed strong commitment to his long-term vision, so don't expect any kind of blockbuster involving the team's four core players, LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum, Wesley Matthews and Damian Lillard.

Last season, the Blazers were 18-16 going into the All-Star break. But because of the lockout, the trade deadline was much later than usual, on March 15. After the break, Portland went 2-7 before deadline, prompting the team to hit the reset button with trades of Gerald Wallace and Marcus Camby and firing of coach Nate McMillan.

The later deadline gave management a more complete view of the roster's long-term prospects (you wonder how things would have gone if the deadline had come right after the All-Star break), a luxury this year's team doesn't have.

The Blazers currently have the 14th-worst record in the NBA. They owe Charlotte a first-round draft pick to complete the 2011 trade for Wallace. The pick is top-12 protected, and if the season ended with Portland in the same spot it's at now, the odds would be overwhelming that they would have to give the pick to the Bobcats.

From the 14th spot, the only way the Blazers could move up in the draft lottery would be if the ping-pong balls game them a top-three pick. The odds against that happening would be overwhelming.

On the other hand, many consider this draft class to be not particularly deep.

The Blazers, based on their current roster, are estimating having $11.8 million to $13.1 million in salary cap space this summer. That's based on losing Hickson's salary, so if they deal Hickson and take back longer-team contract, they would give up some of that cap space, so the player or players they get in return would either have to have expiring deals, or become part of their long-term plans.

Under the new CBA, teams (those not paying luxury tax) can take back 150 percent of the salary they send out in the trade, so Portland, if it traded Hickson's $4 million salary, could take back a $6 million player, and more if it included other players.

It would also be possible to get something for Hickson via a sign-and-trade this summer, although those are far more limited than they used to be, with teams no longer allowed to give full Bird-level deals, but only contracts equivalent to what a player could get with a new team.

What can we learn from Olshey's trade-deadline history? He made two significant deadline deals as the Clippers' vice president of basketball operations (essentially GM). In 2011, he traded Baron Davis and the team's first-round draft pick to Cleveland for Mo Williams and Jamario Moon.

In that year's draft lottery, the Clippers' pick had the No. 8 spot, but ended up as the No. 1 pick, and the Cavaliers chose Kyrie Irving. Irving went on to win Rookie of the Year and make this year's All-Star Game, although the Clippers later acquired Chris Paul, so perhaps it doesn't matter.

Last season, Olshey, got in on a three-team deal that sent Brian Cook and a second-round pick to Washington and netted Nick Young for the Clippers. Young played well for the Clippers in the playoffs, then signed with Washington, making him the kind of short-team rental that could help the Blazers this season.

What about Hickson's no-trade clause? There are probably a few things that would be appealing enough to Hickson to OK a deal: to get to a contender (he hasn't been in the playoffs since 2009-10, and played on a 19-win Cleveland team the next season); to get the chance to play his natural position, power forward; and possibly to get to a team where he has a chance at a long-term deal, although it would have to come in the summer.

The Bird rights that Hickson would give up are probably not a huge deal. Bird rights allow a team an exception to go over the salary cap to re-sign its own player. A player with full Bird rights can sign up to the maximum salary, for five years (although teams can only sign one player to a five-year deal, a kind of "franchise" tag) and get raises of 7.5 percent annually.

Is Hickson in that kind of category? Probably not. In some ways, he's fortunate to have full Bird rights at all. As a player who was claimed off waivers last season, the Blazers would likely not have full Bird rights on him, but his rights were determined as part of an arbitration hearing between the league and the player's union. During the league's appeal of an arbiter's ruling, it agreed to a one-time settlement, part of which gave Hickson full Bird rights. In future cases, players in Hickson's situation will only have"early Bird" rights, a lesser exception.

If Hickson gives up his full Bird rights be agreeing to be dealt to another team, his new team can still re-sign under a non-Bird exception, which would allow his new team to exceed the cap to re-sign him to 120 percent of his previous contract (for Hickson, that would be $4.8 million next season), with annual raises of 4.5 percent, up to four years.

A major factor is the upcoming enhanced luxury tax that kicks in next season. As's Ken Berger writes, teams are being very cautious about how much salary they take on at the deadline.

The stiffer tax starts next season, really the end of next season as teams are billed  based on their final payroll. But, there's also a repeater tax that starts in 2014-15 that penalizes teams that exceeded the tax threshold the previous three seasons. That makes getting under the threshold this season vital for some teams as the trade deadline is the final opportunity for a team to lower its final payroll.

If the Blazers are opportunistic, they might be able to coax something last minute out of a team looking to get under the threshold. Sometimes, you can take advantage of a team in a desperate spot.

A great example was last season, when then-acting GM Chad Buchanan and staff traded Wallace to the Nets for some throw-in players and the Nets' No. 1 draft pick, with only top-three protection. The Blazers kept the pick, which turned out to be the No. 6, and drafted Lillard.

-- Mike Tokito