What’s BlackBerry Worth?

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There wasn’t much movement in BlackBerry shares a day after the stock plunged 16%.

On Monday, BlackBerry (BBRY) said it would raise $1 billion by issuing debt convertable to stock, in lieu of a buyout deal.  BlackBerry also said John Chen will take over as interim CEO, replacing Thorsten Heins.

BlackBerry shares rose 17.5 cents, or 2.7%, to $6.67 Tuesday. On Monday, the stock fell 16% to $6.50. Here’s a smattering of analysis from Wall Street:

Pacific Crest analysts James Faucette and Brad Erickson, who have an Underperform rating on the stock, write that BlackBerry’s intellectual property is worth $2 to $4 per share, other assets are worth $1 to $2 per share, and with $1 billion in debt, the shares are worth $2 to $4.

Deutsche Bank Analyst Brian Modoff upgraded the stock to Hold, but maintained his target price of $6.

“The investment universe is filled with stories of brilliant managers being outdone by businesses with terrible economics and this is a high risk situation by any measure. It is with this sentiment, that we remain cautious on the prospects of a complete turnaround similar to that of Mr. Chen’s old firm, Sybase; however we think some value can be salvaged from Blackberry and we believe that Mr. Chen could provide that strategic direction.

The team of analysts at Raymond James maintained a Market Perform rating on BlackBerry, with “high risk” and no target price. They write:

“Although with Fairfax [Financial Holdings, its largest shareholder] could not complete an acquisition of BBRY, they showed renewed confidence by investing another $250 mln (as part of the $1 billion raise). The addition of Chen as interim CEO from MDM vendor Sybase/Afaria indicates a likely gradual transition of BBRY into an MDM player. The capital raise gives BBRY a bigger cushion for the coming restructuring/transition. Given the relatively small size of the MDM market (2013: $560 mln, +12% year over year, according to ABI Research) and BBRY Services under severe pressure given its new service menu/subscriber losses, we believe break-even remains elusive unless BBRY undergoes significantly more restructuring.”

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There are 13 comments

    • or right around what it costs to buy a discounted iphone 5c

    • Choosing dummies like these pathetic bums to figure out value is below journalism.

    • And ? getting back to your headline, What is it worth, in your thoughts...or do you just cut and paste?

    • their new debt is equivalent to a bridge loan. with market share dropping from 4% to 1%, they are an insignifiacnt player now with revenue (if there is any..) rapidly drying up.
      they're gonna burn through that $1B really fast.
      And -- does Prem "I-Love-Other-Peoples_money" have commitments on the other 750?

    • "indicates a likely gradual transition of BBRY into an MDM player"

      Who exactly is going to buy BES10 without any BB10 devices to go with it?

      Without the device hardware, BES10 is just another MDM - and there are other MDM's that have better function.

      Add BB10 to BES10 and you get market leading functionality and security, because it is a quantum level easier to deploy web applications on BES10 than it is for other platforms.

      There is so much ignorance about BlackBerry from analysts.

    • Hey Tiernan if you are not biased whychoose an ancient BlackBerry image? How much are they paying you?

    • Tiernan. Get a picture of a BlackBerry Z30 for your posts going forward. You don't show a picture of an iPhone 3 in your advertisements, I mean, articles for iPhone do you?

      Show some respect for BlackBerry's new "Flagship Device" with the 5 inch super amoled screen that so many with iPhones will long for...

      Z30.... the only Real Competition to Android....

    • You have to know.

      Most of the world is aggressively rejecting the Blackberry platform and handset. Join us. It's fun. LOL. That was a timely joke. Sorry. I couldn't resist. LOL. Otherwise.

      Do you seriously think Blackberry's handsets as the symbol of rejection adds value to the rest of the company in any financial or psychological sense? Hmm.

      So sorry to guys like Watsa and Lazaridis in knowing that your beloved Blackberry pager and talisman with telephony is seeing its final days. QWERTY is the sector's anachronism. Self preservation and survival means dropping the coocoo clock boys and running or risking life or limb in the crossfire. Move on. Being overly sentimental or morbidly greedy is not going to save anything. Value $2-$5 pps. Maybe $1-$2B MKT CAP.

    • After three months it's a pretty bad sign that a wheeler dealer like Prem Watsa and a side kick like Lazaridis couldn't get enough skin to get into the game to takeover Blackberry. Sheesh. They couldn't raise $4.7B? Or was it all just a bluff? WTF. Those guys don't rock. And they can't attract anyone to rock their world. Does a moron like Freddy count? Ha.

      $2 pps is just a shade over $1B market cap for the whole shebang.

      Have these guys at Blackberry tried slavery? Like can they enter into giving themselves away as far as a business relationship goes? Begging does turn some on. At this point maybe dog collars would serve them well if not look great. Most Canadians are lost anyways. Their problems are mostly a joke or attitudinal as in a result of backwardness. All they do is talk. And talk. Decades ago they even forgot how to get into the mood so now the void is filled with refugees, rejects and retards. And you can see how that's working out. They lost out to the iTards making the iToys with iFart apps. Who would have ever have thunk it. They sure never saw it coming in Waterloo. Eh.

    • What if Verizon bought Blackberry? Wouldn't that give Verizon access to 100% of Canada's Internet, tv and phone market?! And let Watsa and whomever play in that sandbox. And destroy the evil BCE empire of insanity and exploitation in the name of crazy female cyclists who sold their souls.

    • where did Faucette see the and the $1 billion in debt ???
      last time reported, cash balance was +2.7bn.
      Positive. Not debt. If he "predicts" things, he should state so.

    • Me thinks it was $2.6B. Not $2.7B. And the cash burn rate has only been amplified exponentially if that's not obvious. By the way. Re turnarounds. And the resuscitation of a lousy old brands. Would you buy an Atari Falcoln? What would it take to get you to plunk your money down on something wonderful like that? Huh. Or an Edsel. Interested? Maybe a Studebaker? How about a Commodore computer? Give it up. Eh.

    • Pouring investment money into Blackberry makes as much sense as owning a motorcycle and annually paying for collision insurance. Let's me explain. You're not going to collect a penny if you're not around. Think about it. Same for Blackberry. The wheels are falling off this legacy tech company. Get off it. Are you crazy. This thing is only good for scrap. And the price is falling everyday. Chen or no Chen. Reality is reality. For some even negative excitement is attractive. Watch but avoid. Could fetch less than a couple of bucks. If lucky. Look at Nortel in hell.

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