Benny Morris predicts nuclear war —again

In the most significant sign of de-escalation we've yet seen, Iranian diplomats are to meet in Geneva this weekend to discuss the Islamic Republic's nuclear program with representatives of six world powers—including US Undersecretary of State William Burns. The establishment of a US diplomatic presence in Tehran for the first time since 1980 has even been broached. (AFP, July 18) Wasting no time, the once-admirable Benny Morris places an op-ed in the New York Times July 18, with the cheerfully Orwellian title "Using Bombs to Stave Off War," making the case for Israeli air-strikes—and even nuclear strikes—against Iran.



But should Israel's conventional assault fail to significantly harm or stall the Iranian program, a ratcheting up of the Iranian-Israeli conflict to a nuclear level will most likely follow. Every intelligence agency in the world believes the Iranian program is geared toward making weapons, not to the peaceful applications of nuclear power. And, despite the current talk of additional economic sanctions, everyone knows that such measures have so far led nowhere... Western intelligence agencies agree that Iran will reach the "point of no return" in acquiring the capacity to produce nuclear weapons in one to four years.

Um, actually, in 2005, the US National Intelligence Estimate said Iran was ten years away from a nuclear bomb—which means seven today. Nor is the consensus among "Western intelligence agencies" that Iran is seeking the bomb so clear-cut.


Which leaves only Israel — the country threatened almost daily with destruction by Iran's leaders. Thus the recent reports about Israeli plans and preparations to attack Iran (the period from Nov. 5 to Jan. 19 seems the best bet, as it gives the West half a year to try the diplomatic route but ensures that Israel will have support from a lame-duck White House)...

In other words, Morris' window opens the day after the presidential election. Cute. Maybe it'll be a November Surprise instead of an October Surprise.

The problem is that Israel's military capacities are far smaller than America's and, given the distances involved, the fact that the Iranian sites are widely dispersed and underground, and Israel's inadequate intelligence, it is unlikely that the Israeli conventional forces, even if allowed the use of Jordanian and Iraqi airspace (and perhaps, pending American approval, even Iraqi air strips) can destroy or perhaps significantly delay the Iranian nuclear project...

The Iranians will also likely retaliate by attacking Israel’s cities with ballistic missiles (possibly topped with chemical or biological warheads); by prodding its local clients, Hezbollah and Hamas, to unleash their own armories against Israel; and by activating international Muslim terrorist networks against Israeli and Jewish — and possibly American — targets worldwide (though the Iranians may at the last moment be wary of provoking American military involvement).


OK, here comes the best part, wait for it...

Given the fundamentalist, self-sacrificial mindset of the mullahs who run Iran, Israel knows that deterrence may not work as well as it did with the comparatively rational men who ran the Kremlin and White House during the cold war. They are likely to use any bomb they build, both because of ideology and because of fear of Israeli nuclear pre-emption.

Once again, very cute. Morris' own pronouncements in the New York Times seem designed to fuel Iranian fears of "Israeli nuclear pre-emption." Talk about creating what you fear! And while the supposed Iranian propensity for first-strike is evidence of a "fundamentalist, self-sacrificial mindset," Morris appears to advocate an Israeli first strike—but portrays it only as cold realism.


Iran's leaders would do well to rethink their gamble and suspend their nuclear program. Bar this, the best they could hope for is that Israel's conventional air assault will destroy their nuclear facilities. To be sure, this would mean thousands of Iranian casualties and international humiliation. But the alternative is an Iran turned into a nuclear wasteland. Some Iranians may believe that this is a worthwhile gamble if the prospect is Israel's demise. But most Iranians probably don't.

Does Morris really think a strategy of "say uncle or we'll nuke you" is the best encouragement we can offer Iranian moderates? Does he really fail to understand that Iran's presumptive nuclear hardliners are only strengthened and vindicated by such rhetoric?

And does he really not realize that by attacking Iran, Israel would be serving as "America's Rottweiler," in Uri Avnery's phrase? Cheney and his pals, at least, are still salivating for an attack on Iran, as the means to shore up US control of globally strategic oil reserves. If Morris is correct that Israel is preparing a first strike, the real beneficiary will not be Israel, but Israel's imperial master. As for Israel itself, nothing could bring about a new Masada faster...

See our last posts on Iran and Israel.

jew hating idiot

Typical Jew hating garbage.

Jerk that knee!

What, not wanting to incinerate millions of Iranians makes me a Jew-hater? I love getting it from both sides.

Israel Will Stand

War is coming but Israel will supernaturally be protected for the simple fact God is on Israel's side and will be to the end of the age and Christ's return.

The faith aspect to this might not seem relevant but the whole bigger picture is that it plays a vital role in Israel's safety and prosperity.

The God of the Jews and the God of the Gentiles has a part to play in this terrifying stand off and things look bleak but Israel will stand.

Excuse me, what century is this?

It terrifies me that people still think this way in the dawn of the 21st century. It really does.

Benny Morris predicts nuclear war —again

Well Mr. Weinberg,

God is not impressed by time, directed by time, nor is He subservient to time. He is outside of time.

I assume by your comment that because you find yourself vertical in the 21st Century that this is a source of comfort for you that God never existed, or is so far distant in your rear view mirror that He is of no consequence to the here and now, or the future events of mankind.....fatal mistake!

A funny thing sometimes occurs when people make a conscious decision to run from God, it seems the the more they run from Him,...the more they run into him!

You said:


If you're terrified now, you're gonna need a whole new list of adjectives to get you through the near future. This is just scenes of coming attractions.

A Saviour has been provided through Jesus the Christ. His pardon is free, a gift, no strings attached!

I pray that from this point forward that you bump into Him at every turn.


Book of John

God is a concept by which we measure our pain

I agree....

As medieval-minded people such as you and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad become more powerful due to the rapid erosion of secularism and rationalism, this world is indeed likely to become a much more terrifying place. Thanks for the good news.

What makes GOD any more real

What makes GOD any more real than Buddah, Allah, or the Easter Bunny? I've no issue with your beliefs, but please keep them to yourself and don't mix religion with politics.