Study: What If China Bans Apple To Retaliate For U.S. Sanctions Against Huawei, ZTE? Massive Layoffs, Stock Crash

During Apple's most recent financial earnings call in February, CEO Tim Cook said that the U.S. company had "an all-time record for revenue in mainland China" for its December quarter.

A key part of that revenue was, of course, the iPhone, but Apple also grew sales of its iPad, Mac, and smartwatch product lines during the same quarter.

Another interesting data point regarding iPhone sales in China that Cook highlighted during the call was that in the increasingly rich urban China, as well as in the US, the top five smartphones for the last quarter of the year were all iPhones.

Last year, Apple's revenue in Greater China (mainland China, Taiwan, Hong-Kong, and Macau) was $46 billion, roughly half of its U.S. business, representing 19% of its total sales for 2017.

According to Counterpoint, the iPhone grabbed 11% of the Chinese smartphone market, with roughly 51 million units sold, while Huawei leads with 19% market share with about 90 million units.

"And so, everywhere I look, I feel really good about how we're doing in China," added Cook.

China's Apple ban would trigger massive layoffs and a stock crash

However, if the Chinese government decides to ban the sale of Apple products for national security reasons, in retaliation for the implicit ban of Huawei and ZTE in the U.S., Apple could suddenly lose 19% of its revenue and access to the world's largest consumer market, which would have been a formidable growth-engine for its future.

The Cupertino, California-based company will also see its $913 billion market capitalization, as of this writing, melt away and be forced to lay off 10% to 20% of its workforce, representing up to 27,000 employees.

Huawei would become the world's largest smartphone maker

Meanwhile, in China, Huawei would likely pick up most of Apple's $46 billion in lost revenue, thanks to its high-end P and Mate series that match Apple's premium devices (iPhone 7, iPhone 8 and iPhone X), doubling overnight its smartphone business in size!

Last year, Huawei’s consumer business, which includes its smartphone operations, generated nearly $38 billion in revenue, shipping 153 million smartphones, growing 43.6% from a year earlier.

By banning the sale of Apple products, but not its production, China would instantly have the world's largest smartphone maker.

Little downside, huge upside for an Apple ban in China

At the current level of the trade relations between the U.S. and China, we don't see much downside for China to ban Apple products as there are no Chinese companies in the U.S. that do the level of business that Apple does in China and could be a target of the Trump administration.

Four years ago, China already banned government agencies to purchase Apple products for national security reasons so it wouldn't be too hard to extend it to the rest of the population.

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