Iran’s Point of No Return

On the heels of this week’s IAEA talks in Vienna, the P5+1 are gearing up for follow-up meetings with Iran to discuss its nuclear program in Geneva next week.

The Associated Press quoted both Iran and the UN as describing the latest round of talks as “very productive”; there’ll be another meeting on November 11 in Tehran. The location was interpreted by AP as pointing “toward forward movement,” while the decision to issue a joint statement was “seen as a sign of progress.”

Maybe yes, maybe no.

A new report by the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), widely reported in the media during the past week, shows that Iran isn’t idle while sitting at the negotiating table. On the contrary, it continues to expand the number of IR-1 centrifuges installed at both its Fordow and Natanz plants, and had also begun to install more advanced IR-2m centrifuges at Natanz.

Meanwhile, a less-noticed analysis by former International Atomic Energy Agency official Olli Heinonen suggests that Iran had passed the “point of no return” in its nuclear program, having installed centrifuges meant to enrich uranium to a percentage even higher than 20%.  Heinonen estimates that Tehran could soon radically reduce its so-called “breakout time.”

In a similar vein, the ISIS report warns that Iran’s nuclear weaponization process might not be detectable by the IAEA until Iran revealed the location of the relevant enrichment site. The report further predicts that “Iran could break out most quickly using a three-step process with its installed centrifuges and its LEU stockpiles” in less than two months (and could break out in less than three months “in a covert plant with a more realistic cascade organization”).

Sobering facts worth emphasis in coverage of imminent P5+1 and IAEA nuclear talks with Iran.


Posted in AP, Hassan Rouhani, Iranian Financial Sanctions, Iranian Nuclear Crisis, Iranian Politics, Other News
6 comments on “Iran’s Point of No Return
  1. Robert Burke says:

    The recent overtures by Iran toward America, opening negotiations for nuclear disarmament, is nothing but a smoke screen. To draw side stepping President Obama’s attention away from Iran helping Syria.

    If we don’t help the rebels secure Syria and Iran wins, then they will fill the power vacuum left behind by an Arab Spring and dominate the Middle East, including Saudi, Iraq, Kuwait, Egypt, and all the others.

    Then we will have to go in and free them. Just like Hitler taking over
    Europe. Then Russia and Iran surrogates will control the oil and
    Europe, maybe even China and India.

    Europe will be out flanked by a unified Russia/Iranian forces, controlling surrogate Countries in their grasp. They will be forced to either surrender or fight, a nuclear war… We have no choice but to help the freedom fighters and mount an offensive against Iran’s intrusions into Syria. Israel will attack Iran with nukes, to protect it’s flanks. We are looking at a doomsday scenario, if we do nothing.

  2. frankel says:

    are you serious??? You’ve been playing too much Call of Duty..

  3. Aznar says:

    Robert Burk, are you seriously thinking arming a bunch of Islamist fanatics with clear and undisputed links to Al-Qaeda is a good idea? Have we not learnt anything from the intervention in Afghanistan in the 1980s when Reagan administration armed the Mojahedins in the name of stopping the Commies, only to give birth to the Taliban and Al-Qaeda once the Russians left? The Syrian civil war is a fight between Seculars vs. Islamists and any other spin on it is not only misleading but it is also foolish.

    There are no good guys in Syrian conflict but at least if the current regime prevails we will not end up with another Islamist extremist government in a country awash with arms (thanks to the Western interference). Given the choice between Secular Dictatorship vs. Islamist Dictatorship, we have to support the least bad option which is the current secular regime (I guess most women in Syria would not want the Islamists prevail either). If anyone one thinks a regime change in Syria means happy-clappy democratic Syria, then they are not living on the same planet as the rest of us or don’t watch the news from Afghanistan or Iraq (unless the news is from Fox News and the rest of the Murdoch misinformation network).

  4. Just remember Robert Burke, that Iran has never invaded another country unlike the Westy or Iraq who was helped by the West. If the West had never interfered in Iranian hitory or territory as the west should never have interfered in any country, we wouldn’t have such a mess now in the world. Terrorists are the result of interference on major grounds and abuse from invaders. We assume that the East is wrong but it’s because we fail to understand or acknowledge their philosophy. We assume that only we are right and that only our ways of life are right but this world is made up of human beings who all have the right to exist. You may then say, well the Iranians don’t allow that but then neither do we and that is why they react in that way..The west treats them like naughty children as they do with many other countries. The West goes around the world thinking that everything belongs to them as they thought the oil in Iran belonged to them…Well then how would you feel if it was vice versa and they came into your country, told you how to live, breathe abused you, took asll of your land and oil away. and they have had to put up with that for centuries just like many other countries in the world. The other facrt here that you might not know, is that, Iran having been sanctioned from day 1 when they decided to take back their country from the west. They were invaded by Iraq which was helped by the west and I lived there so I know what I’m talking about. When I was there, the Iranians had to fight a war when they were financially hit by the west. There were power cuts every day and there still are because they are not allowed to sell their oil normally. Nuclear power plants are the only form of power that can provide an adequate source of energy for such a large country. People are starving over there because we insist that we are right. Meanwhile, the Israelis who want to destroy Iran possess an arsenal of atomic weapons and they continually harass the other countries, venturing in to Lebanon and other countries as well as invading the Palestinian land to take more and more land every day. When an Israeli politician was on the news today, he couldn’t answer the question about possessing nuclear weapons. He just sat there and lied so who is trustworthy . I can’t honestly say I trust the Israelis any more then I trust the Iranian government. Netanyahu made a comment recently about the disadvantaged Iranian youth but unfortunately, Netanyahu is as ignorant of the truth as we are about our relying on false facts as we did with Iraq when we said they had an arsenal of dangerous weapons however when the west overtook them, they could not find anything. In fact, who controls the oil there now…oh yes, the west. back in the hands of the west when it is not even their oil. yet is supposed to be an educated man. If we go on his intelligence, then the world is doomed. If we carry on running around like cowboys then what do we expect. We don’t own the world. It is made up of different races, different cultures, different language etc and we should learn to respect each other for the richness and beauty of these differences because if we all lived under the western philosophy, we would be boring, and I have to say it, fascist. Just remember, the west was responsible for slavery for quite some time and in some sense, it still exists by our control of the world status, by controlling what is sold from other countries, restricting imports from countries that are poor unless it is cut price and then destroying another countries exportable commodities by swamping the market with their own such as pistachios which are usually imported from IRAN…bananas, normally grown and exported from the Caribbean but the USA, is seeking to match this, This is domination on an economic scale, so who can be trusted to treat each other respectfully when we trample over other people’s rights. Oh and by the way, I’m not Iranian, I’m English and I’m not a traitor, I love my country but that doesn’t mean I have to love it’s foreign policies which are wrong, ignorant, unjust and illogically selfish and we sot and cower like cowards instead of questioning our better judgement, by using the brains that are given to us. We cannot expect any respect from these countries if we don’t respect and acknowledge their rights in the same way we believe we should be treated. Although, I’m not religious, the west is largely Christian and the doctrine behind Christianity, is that we live together that we should love our neighbours as we love ourselves, unfortunately, like all religions, it is created by man so it is open distortion and misinterpretation and as we are not perfect, we live through blurred lines so hence look at the mess we have created so who can be trusted and who are we to judge who is a liar when we ourselves, have lied every day of our lives.

  5. Ignore my spelling mistakes. Too many left handed fingers.

  6. FormerNYer says:

    The Iranians will make a fool out of Obama. Obama is the kid in a room full of adults. He has no experience except for community organizing. Although, Obama may tell the Iranians, “If you like your nuclear weapons, you can keep them. Period.” The entire world will pay a huge price because of the incompetence of Obama.

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