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Gramm and Solon: Can Government Benefits Turn an Election?

This election will test the relative power of private-sector aspirations versus public-sector dependence.

Since World War II, the five incumbent presidents who were re-elected enjoyed an economy where the unemployment rate averaged 5.4% in September of their election year, real GDP growth was 5.9% in the second quarter, and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in August was 97. Today the unemployment rate is 7.8%, real GDP growth in the second quarter was 1.3%, and the Consumer Confidence Index in August was 74.

Based on these economic measures, President Obama's re-election would seem to be doomed.