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Sample Forecast for Worldwide

Summary for the World

Synopsis: ENSO-Neutral conditions are slightly favored (between 55-60%) during the upcoming Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2016-17.


The multi-model averages favor borderline Neutral-La Niña conditions (3-month average Niño-3.4 index less than or equal to -0.5°C) during the Northern Hemisphere fall, continuing into winter. However, the more recently updated model runs from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) more strongly favor ENSO-Neutral. The forecaster consensus prefers this outcome, which is supported by the lack of significant anomalies in several indicators over the past month (winds, convection, subsurface temperatures). Overall, ENSO-Neutral conditions are slightly favored (between 55-60%) during the upcoming Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2016-17.

October Wind

Most landmasses will experience average wind conditions for the month.

October Solar Radiation

Much of the northern half of the northern hemisphere should be below normal while the mid-latitudes and tropics should be slightly below normal and the southern latitudes near normal except much of Australia and New Zealand and southern South America and Southern Africa should be above normal.

October Temperature Extreme Forecast Index

Much of Central North America and South America are forecast as usually low while similar conditions prevail in much of Africa and China and Central Asia. Warm episodes are limited to Western Europe, the eastern Arctic, and the eastern South Pacific and insular SE Asia and southwestern USA and the Pacific from east to west from Hawaii south to near the equator.

October Precipitation Extreme Forecast Index



Extreme rainfall events are possible in Ethiopia and also in the interior of West Africa (Mali, Burkina Faso and Nigeria) and eastern Saudi Arabia and Kuwait and southern Iraq as well as eastern Iran and western Afghanistan across to far western China. Through much of Europe and continental north Asia usual normal to usual high conditions prevail with extreme rainfall possible in northern Spain and southern France.

October Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly




October Global Precipitation Anomaly

North and South America near normal with slightly wetter conditions in Central North America and also northwest South America and part of western Mexico and northern Brazil into Suriname and Guyana.

Southeast Asia looks near normal north of the Equator and wetter than normal south of Equator while India is normal to slightly drier than normal. Much of Bangladesh and western Myanmar is likely to be wetter than normal and most of southern China wetter than normal and north Asia near normal to slightly wetter than normal.


October Global Temperature Anomaly


New Zealand the eastern third and northern part of Australia should be warmer than normal and southwestern and central Australia cooler than normal and all of east and Southeast Asia should be warmer than normal with India and eastern Pakistan near normal. Southwest India should be warmer than normal as well as western China and Tibet.

Central Africa should be cooler than normal and Southern Africa warmer than normal. The Middle East and Iran and Afghanistan should be cooler than normal. Northern Asia to the Arctic should be considerably warmer than normal. Most of Europe should be near normal.