












}, keywords = {ecosystem services, forest, Gap model, Individual-tree model, LANDIS TreeMig, model, Model validation, Process, Simulator, vegetation}, issn = {0921-2973}, doi = {10.1007/s10980-017-0540-9}, url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10980-017-0540-9}, author = {Shifley, Stephen R. and Hong He and Lischke, Heike and Wang, Wen J. and Jin, Wenchi and Gustafson, Eric J. and Thompson, Jonathan R. and Thompson, Frank R. and Dijak, William D. and Yang, Jian} } @article {7037, title = {Pet Project or Best Project? Online Decision Support Tools for Prioritizing Barrier Removals in the Great Lakes and Beyond}, journal = {Fisheries}, volume = {42}, year = {2017}, month = {Feb-01-2017}, pages = {57 - 65}, abstract = {

Structures that block movement of fish through river networks are built to serve a variety of societal needs, including transportation, hydroelectric power, and exclusion of exotic species. Due to their abundance, road crossings and dams reduce the amount of habitat available to fish that migrate from the sea or lakes into rivers to breed. The benefits to fish of removing any particular barrier depends on its location within the river network, its passability to fish, and the relative position of other barriers within the network. Balancing the trade-offs between ecological and societal values makes choosing among potential removal projects difficult. To facilitate prioritization of barrier removals, we developed an online decision support tool (DST) with three functions: (1) view existing barriers at various spatial scales; (2) modify information about barriers, including removal costs; and (3) run optimization models to identify portfolios of removals that provide the greatest amount of habitat access for a given budget. A survey of available DSTs addressing barrier removal prioritization indicates that barrier visualization is becoming widespread but few tools allow dynamic calculation of connectivity metrics, scenario analysis, or optimization. Having these additional functions, our DST enables organizations to develop barrier removal priorities based on cost-effectiveness in restoring aquatic connectivity.

}, keywords = {barrier removal, Great Lakes, migratory fish, tributary connectivity}, issn = {0363-2415}, doi = {10.1080/03632415.2016.1263195}, url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1080/03632415.2016.1263195}, author = {Moody, Allison T. and Neeson, Thomas M. and Wangen, Steve and Dischler, Jeff and Diebel, Matthew W. and Milt, Austin and Herbert, Matthew and Khoury, Mary and Yacobson, Eugene and Doran, Patrick J. and Ferris, Michael C. and O{\textquoteright}Hanley, Jesse R. and McIntyre, Peter B.} } @article {6927, title = {Potential Effects of Foundation Species Loss on Wetland Communities: A Case Study of Black Ash Wetlands Threatened by Emerald Ash Borer}, journal = {Wetlands}, volume = {37}, year = {2017}, month = {Jan-08-2017}, pages = {787 - 799}, abstract = {



Both human activity and climate change can influence erosion rates and initiate rapid landscape change. Understanding the relative impact of these factors is critical to managing the risks of extreme erosion related to flooding and landslide occurrence. Here we present a 2100 year record of sediment mass accumulation and inferred erosion based on lacustrine sediment cores from Amherst Lake, Vermont, USA. Using deposition from August 2011 Tropical Storm Irene as a modern analogue, we identified distinct event deposits indicative of destructive erosion events. These deposits record a prolonged (multidecadal) interval of enhanced erosion following the initial storm-induced landscape disturbance. The direct impact of human land cover alteration is minimal in comparison to the more recent twentieth century increase in the occurrence of catastrophic erosion linked to overall wetter conditions that favor high erosion rates and more easily trigger landslides during periods of extreme precipitation.

}, keywords = {Amherst Lake, erosion, floods, mass accumulation rate, Tropical Storm Irene}, doi = {10.1002/2015GL064436 }, url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2015GL064436}, author = {Cook, T.C and Yellen, B and Woodruff, Jonathon D. and Miller, D} } @article {1827, title = {Contrasting human versus climatic impacts on erosion}, journal = {Geophysical Research Letters}, volume = {42}, year = {2015}, month = {08/2015}, pages = {6680 - 6687}, abstract = {Both human activity and climate change can influence erosion rates and initiate rapid landscape change. Understanding the relative impact of these factors is critical to managing the risks of extreme erosion related to flooding and landslide occurrence. Here we present a 2100 year record of sediment mass accumulation and inferred erosion based on lacustrine sediment cores from Amherst Lake, Vermont, USA. Using deposition from August 2011 Tropical Storm Irene as a modern analogue, we identified distinct event deposits indicative of destructive erosion events. These deposits record a prolonged (multidecadal) interval of enhanced erosion following the initial storm-induced landscape disturbance. The direct impact of human land cover alteration is minimal in comparison to the more recent twentieth century increase in the occurrence of catastrophic erosion linked to overall wetter conditions that favor high erosion rates and more easily trigger landslides during periods of extreme precipitation.}, keywords = {Amherst Lake, erosion, floods, mass accumulation rate, Tropical Storm Irene}, doi = {10.1002/2015GL064436}, author = {Cook, Timothy L. and Yellen, Brian C. and Woodruff, Jonathon D. and Daniel Miller} } @article {1691, title = {Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world}, journal = {Nature Climate Change}, volume = {5}, year = {2015}, month = {4/2015}, pages = {424 - 430}, abstract = {There is growing evidence that the rate of warming is amplified with elevation, such that high-mountain environments experience more rapid changes in temperature than environments at lower elevations. Elevation-dependent warming (EDW) can accelerate the rate of change in mountain ecosystems, cryospheric systems, hydrological regimes and biodiversity. Here we review important mechanisms that contribute towards EDW: snow albedo and surface-based feedbacks; water vapour changes and latent heat release; surface water vapour and radiative flux changes; surface heat loss and temperature change; and aerosols. All lead to enhanced warming with elevation (or at a critical elevation), and it is believed that combinations of these mechanisms may account for contrasting regional patterns of EDW. We discuss future needs to increase knowledge of mountain temperature trends and their controlling mechanisms through improved observations, satellite-based remote sensing and model simulations.}, keywords = {albedo, biodiversity, cryosphere, global warming, latent heat flux, mountain environment, numerical model, observational method, Remote sensing, satellite imagery, temperature effect, water vapor}, issn = {1758-6798}, doi = {10.1038/nclimate2563}, author = {Pepin, N. and Bradley, Raymond S. and Henry F. Diaz and Baraer, M. and Caceres, E. B. and Forsythe, N. and Fowler, H. and Greenwood, G. and Hashmi, M. Z. and Liu, X. D. and Miller, J. R. and Ning, Liang and Ohmura, A. and Palazzi, E. and Rangwala, I. and Sch{\"o}ner, W. and Severskiy, I. and Shahgedanova, M. and Wang, M. B. and Williamson, S. N. and Daqing Yang} } @article {1260, title = {Ch. 16: Northeast. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment}, year = {2014}, pages = {371-395}, institution = {U.S. Global Change Research Program}, address = {Washington, D.C.}, doi = {10.7930/J0SF2T3P}, url = {http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/northeast}, author = {Horton, Radley M. and Yohe, Gary and Easterling, W. and Kates, R. and Ruth, M. and Sussman, E. and Whelchel, A. and Wolfe, D. and Lipschultz, F.}, editor = {Melillo, Jerry M. and Richmond, Terese (T.C.) and Yohe, Gary} } @article {1426, title = {Uncertainty in 21st century CMIP5 sea level projections}, journal = {Journal of Climate}, year = {2014}, month = {10/2014}, pages = {141029115110008}, abstract = {The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 {\textquotedblleft}representative concentration pathways{\textquotedblright} (CMIP5 RCP) simulations quantify the response of the climate system to different natural and anthropogenic forcing scenarios. These simulations differ due to: 1) forcing; 2) the representation of the climate system in atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs); and 3) the presence of unforced (internal) variability. Global and local sea level rise projections derived from these simulations, and the differentiation ({\textquotedblleft}emergence{\textquotedblright}) of RCPs, depend upon the relative magnitude of these sources of uncertainty at different lead times. Here, we partition uncertainty in CMIP5 projections of sea level, at a global and local scale, using a 164-member ensemble of 21st century simulations. Local projections at New York City (NYSL) are highlighted. The partition between model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and internal variability in global mean sea level (GMSL) is qualitatively consistent with that of surface air temperature, with model uncertainty dominant for most of the 21st century. Locally, model uncertainty is dominant through 2100, with maxima in the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. The model spread is driven largely by 5 of the 16 AOGCMs in the ensemble; these models exhibit outlying behavior in all RCPs and in both GMSL and NYSL. The magnitude of internal variability varies widely by location and across models, leading to differences of several decades in the local emergence of RCPs. The AOGCM spread, and its sensitivity to model exclusion and/or weighting, has important implications for sea level assessments, especially if a local risk management approach is utilized.}, keywords = {Climate models, Climate prediction, Regression analysis, risk assessment, sea level, Societal impacts}, issn = {1520-0442}, doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00453.1}, author = {Little, Christopher M. and Horton, Radley M. and Kopp, Robert E. and Oppenheimer, Michael and Yip, Stan} } @conference {1633, title = {Bringing People, Data, and Models Together - Addressing Impacts of Climate Change on Stream Temperature}, booktitle = {World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2013World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2013}, year = {2013}, pages = {1099 - 1109}, publisher = {American Society of Civil Engineers}, organization = {American Society of Civil Engineers}, address = {Cincinnati, OhioReston, VA}, abstract = {


}, keywords = {climate change, rivers and streams, Temperature effects}, isbn = {978-0-7844-1294-7}, doi = {10.1061/9780784412947.106}, author = {O{\textquoteright}Neill, Kyle and Austin S. Polebitski and Yang, Y.C. and Palmer, Richard N.}, editor = {Patterson, Craig L and Struck, Scott D. and Murray, Jr., Daniel J.} } @article {1360, title = {Comparison of silvicultural and natural disturbance effects on terrestrial salamanders in northern hardwood forests}, journal = {Biological Conservation}, volume = {167}, year = {2013}, month = {11/2013}, pages = {194 - 202}, abstract = {In forested ecosystems timber harvesting has the potential to emulate natural disturbances, thereby maintaining the natural communities adapted to particular disturbances. We compared the effects of even-aged (clearcut and patch cut) and uneven-aged (group cut, single-tree selection) timber management techniques with natural ice-storm damage and unmanipulated reference forest sites on red-backed salamanders. We used cover boards and litter searches to survey for salamanders in northern hardwood forests in New Hampshire, USA. We estimated abundance while accounting for detection probability using the Dail{\textendash}Madsen open population model. We found significant reduction in salamander abundance in recent group cuts, patch cuts, and clearcuts compared to reference forest sites, and significant but less effect of single-tree selection and ice-storm damage. Our results contribute to the evidence of detrimental effects of even-aged harvests on salamander abundance, but in contrast to most previous research, we also found lower abundance in sites following uneven-aged harvest practices when we accounted for detection probability. To more accurately reflect the total effect of harvests on salamanders, we also employed a parametric, nonlinear hierarchical model to estimate edge effects while accounting for imperfect detection. We found that group cut, patch cut, and clearcut logging reduced salamander abundance 34 m into the surrounding forest. These edge effects can greatly expand the total area affected by logging, especially in the northeastern US where cuts tend to be relatively small. This novel method for estimating edge effects will allow managers to directly calculate the total effects on populations for various size and shape harvesting plans.}, keywords = {disturbance, forest management, Ice-storm, Plethodon cinereus, Red-backed salamander, Timber harvest}, issn = {00063207}, doi = {10.1016/j.biocon.2013.08.006}, author = {Hocking, Daniel J. and Babbitt, Kimberly J. and Yamasaki, Mariko} } @article {941, title = {A Contemporary Carbon Balance for the Northeast Region of the United States}, journal = {Environmental Science \& Technology}, volume = {47}, year = {2013}, month = {12/2013}, pages = {13230 - 13238}, abstract = {Development of regional policies to reduce net emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) would benefit from the quantification of the major components of the region{\textquoteright}s carbon balance fossil fuel CO2 emissions and net fluxes between land ecosystems and the atmosphere. Through spatially detailed inventories of fossil fuel CO2 emissions and a terrestrial biogeochemistry model, we produce the first estimate of regional carbon balance for the Northeast United States between 2001 and 2005. Our analysis reveals that the region was a net carbon source of 259 Tg C/yr over this period. Carbon sequestration by land ecosystems across the region, mainly forests, compensated for about 6\% of the region{\textquoteright}s fossil fuel emissions. Actions that reduce fossil fuel CO2 emissions are key to improving the region{\textquoteright}s carbon balance. Careful management of forested lands will be required to protect their role as a net carbon sink and a provider of important ecosystem services such as water purification, erosion control, wildlife habitat and diversity, and scenic landscapes.}, keywords = {carbon balance, carbon dioxide, carbon sequestration, ecosystems, emissions, northeast US}, issn = {1520-5851}, doi = {10.1021/es403097z}, author = {Lu, Xiaoliang and Kicklighter, David W. and Melillo, Jerry M. and Yang, Ping and Rosenzweig, Bernice and V{\"o}r{\"o}smarty, Charles J. and Gross, Barry and Stewart, Robert J.} } @article {851, title = {Evaluating functions to describe point patterns}, journal = {Community Ecology}, volume = {14}, year = {2013}, month = {6/2013}, pages = {1 - 7}, abstract = {Three functions that analyze point patterns are the L (a transformation of Ripley{\textquoteright}s K function), pair correlation, and K2 functions. We tested these functions with Genton{\textquoteright}s spatial index, which measures the distance between observed and random theoretical lines for a function over all lag distances. We simulated points from random, moderately regular, extremely regular, and clustered distributions at different density levels and a fixed plot size and for regular distributions at varying plot sizes. The spatial index clearly was able to identify clustered patterns. However, there was overlap in spatial index values between random and moderately regular distributions at lower densities. The spatial index for the L function also became more negative as plot size increased, indicating edge effects, whereas the pair correlation and K2 function values fluctuated with plot size. Using confidence envelopes rather than a spatial index, we also identified distributions other than the known distribution at low densities. These results indicate that ecologists should be cautious about 1) assigning random or regular distribution, particularly for the L function and the K2 function, 2) comparing point patterns of different densities and plot sizes, and 3) interpreting the pair correlation and K2 functions.}, keywords = {K2 functions, Pair correlation function, Point pattern, Ripley{\textquoteright}s K, Simulation envelope}, issn = {1588-2756}, doi = {10.1556/ComEc.14.2013.1.1}, author = {Hanberry, Brice B. and Yang, Jian and Hong He} } @article {867, title = {A large-scale forest landscape model incorporating multi-scale processes and utilizing forest inventory data}, journal = {Ecosphere}, volume = {4}, year = {2013}, month = {09/2013}, pages = {art106}, abstract = {Two challenges confronting forest landscape models (FLMs) are how to simulate fine, stand-scale processes while making large-scale (i.e., >107 ha) simulation possible, and how to take advantage of extensive forest inventory data such as U.S. Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data to initialize and constrain model parameters. We present the LANDIS PRO model that addresses these needs. LANDIS PRO adds density and size mechanisms of resource competition. This is achieved through incorporating number of trees and DBH by species age cohort within each raster cell. Forest change is determined by the interactions of species-, stand-, and landscape-scale processes. Species-scale processes include tree growth, establishment, and mortality. Stand-scale processes include density and size-related resource competition that regulates self-thinning and seedling establishment. Landscape-scale processes include seed dispersal, as well as natural and anthropogenic disturbances. LANDIS PRO is designed to be straightforwardly comparable with forest inventory data, and thus the extensive FIA data can be directly utilized to initialize and constrain model parameters before predicting future forest change. We initialized a large landscape (107 ha) from historical FIA data (1978) and the predicted forest structure and composition following 30 years of simulation were statistically calibrated against a prior time-series of sequential FIA data (1978 to 2008). The results showed that the initialized conditions realistically represented the historical forest composition and structure at 1978, and the constrained model parameters predicted reasonable outcomes at both landscape and land type scales. The subsequent evaluation of model predictions showed that the predicted forest composition and structure were comparable with old-growth oak forests; predicted forest successional trajectories were consistent with the expected successional patterns in oak-dominated forests in the study region; and the predicted stand development patterns were in agreement with the established theories of forest stand development. This study demonstrated a framework for forest landscape modeling including model initialization, calibration, and evaluation of predictions.}, keywords = {calibration, Central Hardwood Forests region, disturbance, forest landscape models (FLMs), forest landscape processes (FLPs), LANDIS PRO, landscape initialization, oak forests, prediction, resource competition, stand-scale processes, U.S. Forest Service Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data Read More: http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/ES13-00040.1}, issn = {2150-8925}, doi = {10.1890/ES13-00040.1}, author = {Wang, Wen J. and Hong He and Spetich, Martin A. and Shifley, Stephen R. and Thompson, Frank R. and Larsen, David R. and Jacob Fraser and Yang, Jian} } @article {1859, title = {Will climate change exacerbate water stress in Central Asia?}, journal = {Climatic Change}, volume = {112}, year = {2012}, month = {6/2012}, pages = {881 - 899}, abstract = {Millions of people in the geopolitically important region of Central Asia depend on water from snow- and glacier-melt driven international rivers, most of all the Syr Darya and Amu Darya. The riparian countries of these rivers have experienced recurring water allocation conflicts ever since the Soviet Union collapsed. Will climate change exacerbate water stress and thus conflicts? We have developed a coupled climate, land-ice and rainfall-runoff model for the Syr Darya to quantify impacts and show that climatic changes are likely to have consequences on runoff seasonality due to earlier snow-melt. This will increase water stress in unregulated catchments because less water will be available for irrigation in the summer months. Threats from geohazards, above all glacier lake outbursts, are likely to increase as well. The area at highest risk is the densely populated, agriculturally productive, and politically unstable Fergana Valley. Targeted infrastructural developments will be required in the region. If the current mismanagement of water and energy resources can be replaced with more effective resource allocation mechanisms through the strengthening of transboundary institutions, Central Asia will be able to successfully address these future climate-related challenges.}, keywords = {A2 Simulation, Climate Realization, Daily Weather Generator, Darya Basin, Glacial Lake, Glacier Length, Glacier Surface Area, Glacier Volume, Irrigation Water Demand, Lake Outburst, Mike Basin, Rule Curve, SRES A2 Scenario, Tien Shan Region}, issn = {1573-1480}, doi = {10.1007/s10584-011-0253-z}, author = {Siegfried, Tobias and Bernauer, Thomas and Guiennet, Renaud and Sellars, Scott and Robertson, Andrew W. and Mankin, Justin S. and Bauer-Gottwein, Peter and Yakovlev, Andrey} } @article {15, title = {Challenges of forest landscape modeling{\textemdash}Simulating large landscapes and validating results}, journal = {Landscape and Urban Planning}, volume = {100}, year = {2011}, month = {4/2011}, pages = {400 - 402}, abstract = {Over the last 20 years, we have seen a rapid development in the field of forest landscape modeling, fueled by both technological and theoretical advances. Two fundamental challenges have persisted since the inception of FLMs: (1) balancing realistic simulation of ecological processes at broad spatial and temporal scales with computing capacity, and (2) validating modeled results using independent, spatially explicit time series data. The paper discusses the current status and future directions regarding these two challenges.}, keywords = {Ecological realism, Forest landscape model, Model validation, Simulation capacity}, author = {Hong He and Yang, Jian and Shifley, Stephen R. and Thompson, Frank R.} } @article {13, title = {Developing coastal adaptation to climate change in the New York City infrastructure-shed: process, approach, tools, and strategies}, journal = {Climatic Change}, volume = {106}, year = {2011}, month = {5/2011}, pages = {93 - 127}, abstract = {While current rates of sea level rise and associated coastal flooding in the New York City region appear to be manageable by stakeholders responsible for communications, energy, transportation, and water infrastructure, projections for sea level rise and associated flooding in the future, especially those associated with rapid icemelt of the Greenland and West Antarctic Icesheets, may be outside the range of current capacity because extreme events might cause flooding beyond today{\textquoteright}s planning and preparedness regimes. This paper describes the comprehensive process, approach, and tools for adaptation developed by the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) in conjunction with the region{\textquoteright}s stakeholders who manage its critical infrastructure, much of which lies near the coast. It presents the adaptation framework and the sea-level rise and storm projections related to coastal risks developed through the stakeholder process. Climate change adaptation planning in New York City is characterized by a multi-jurisdictional stakeholder{\textendash}scientist process, state-of-the-art scientific projections and mapping, and development of adaptation strategies based on a risk-management approach.}, keywords = {New England Climate}, author = {Rosenzweig, Cynthia and Solecki, William D. and Blake, Reginald and Bowman, Malcolm and Faris, Craig and Gornitz, Vivien and Horton, Radley M. and Jacob, Klaus and LeBlanc, Alice and Leichenko, Robin and Linkin, Megan and Major, David C. and O{\textquoteright}Grady, Megan and Patrick, Lesley and Sussman, Edna and Yohe, Gary and Zimmerman, Rae} } @article {287, title = {Simulating the impacts of disturbances on forest carbon cycling in North America: Processes, data, models, and challenges}, journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research}, volume = {116}, year = {2011}, month = {2011}, abstract = {Forest disturbances greatly alter the carbon cycle at various spatial and temporal scales. It is critical to understand disturbance regimes and their impacts to better quantify regional and global carbon dynamics. This review of the status and major challenges in representing the impacts of disturbances in modeling the carbon dynamics across North America revealed some major advances and challenges. First, significant advances have been made in representation, scaling, and characterization of disturbances that should be included in regional modeling efforts. Second, there is a need to develop effective and comprehensive process-based procedures and algorithms to quantify the immediate and long-term impacts of disturbances on ecosystem succession, soils, microclimate, and cycles of carbon, water, and nutrients. Third, our capability to simulate the occurrences and severity of disturbances is very limited. Fourth, scaling issues have rarely been addressed in continental scale model applications. It is not fully understood which finer scale processes and properties need to be scaled to coarser spatial and temporal scales. Fifth, there are inadequate databases on disturbances at the continental scale to support the quantification of their effects on the carbon balance in North America. Finally, procedures are needed to quantify the uncertainty of model inputs, model parameters, and model structures, and thus to estimate their impacts on overall model uncertainty. Working together, the scientific community interested in disturbance and its impacts can identify the most uncertain issues surrounding the role of disturbance in the North American carbon budget and develop working hypotheses to reduce the uncertainty.}, keywords = {BIOME-BGC model, canadian boreal forest, climate change, global vegetation model, land use histery, mountain pine-beetle, net primary productivity, soil organic matter, terrestrial biosphere model}, issn = {0148-0227}, doi = {10.1029/2010JG001585}, author = {Liu, Shuguang and Bond-Lamberty, Ben and Hicke, Jeffrey A. and Vargas, Rodrigo and Zhao, Shuqing and Chen, Jing and Edburg, Steven L. and Hu, Yueming and Liu, Jinxun and McGuire, A. David and Xiao, Jingfeng and Keane, Robert and Yuan, Wenping and TANG, JIANWU and LUO, YIQI and Potter, Christopher and Oeding, Jennifer} } @article {51, title = {Analysis of the Arctic System for Freshwater Cycle Intensification: Observations and Expectations}, journal = {Journal of Climate}, volume = {23}, year = {2010}, month = {11/2010}, pages = {5715 - 5737}, abstract = {Hydrologic cycle intensification is an expected manifestation of a warming climate. Although positive trends in several global average quantities have been reported, no previous studies have documented broad intensification across elements of the Arctic freshwater cycle (FWC). In this study, the authors examine the character and quantitative significance of changes in annual precipitation, evapotranspiration, and river discharge across the terrestrial pan-Arctic over the past several decades from observations and a suite of coupled general circulation models (GCMs). Trends in freshwater flux and storage derived from observations across the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas are also described. With few exceptions, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and river discharge fluxes from observations and the GCMs exhibit positive trends. Significant positive trends above the 90\% confidence level, however, are not present for all of the observations. Greater confidence in the GCM trends arises through lower interannual variability relative to trend magnitude. Put another way, intrinsic variability in the observations tends to limit confidence in trend robustness. Ocean fluxes are less certain, primarily because of the lack of long-term observations. Where available, salinity and volume flux data suggest some decrease in saltwater inflow to the Barents Sea (i.e., a decrease in freshwater outflow) in recent decades. A decline in freshwater storage across the central Arctic Ocean and suggestions that large-scale circulation plays a dominant role in freshwater trends raise questions as to whether Arctic Ocean freshwater flows are intensifying. Although oceanic fluxes of freshwater are highly variable and consistent trends are difficult to verify, the other components of the Arctic FWC do show consistent positive trends over recent decades. The broad-scale increases provide evidence that the Arctic FWCis experiencing intensification. Efforts that aim to develop an adequate observation system are needed to reduce uncertainties and to detect and document ongoing changes in all system components for further evidence of Arctic FWC intensification.}, keywords = {Arctic, Evapotranspiration, Freshwater, precipitation}, author = {Rawlins, Michael A. and Steele, Michael and Holland, Marika M. and Adam, Jennifer C. and Cherry, Jessica E. and Francis, Jennifer A. and Groisman, Pavel Ya and Hinzman, Larry D. and Huntington, Thomas G. and Kane, Douglas L. and Kimball, John S. and Kwok, Ron and Lammers, Richard B. and Lee, Craig M. and Lettenmaier, Dennis P. and McDonald, Kyle C. and Podest, Erika and Pundsack, Jonathan W. and Rudels, Bert and Serreze, Mark C. and Shiklomanov, Alexander and Skagseth, {\O}ystein and Troy, Tara J. and V{\"o}r{\"o}smarty, Charles J. and Wensnahan, Mark and Wood, Eric F. and Woodgate, Rebecca and Daqing Yang and Zhang, Ke and Zhang, Tingjun} } @article {71, title = {Divergence in seasonal hydrology across northern Eurasia: Emerging trends and water cycle linkages}, journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research}, volume = {114}, year = {2009}, month = {2009}, abstract = {Discharge from large Eurasia rivers increased during the 20th century, yet much remains unknown regarding details of this increasing freshwater flux. Here, for the three largest Eurasian basins (the Ob, Yenisei, and Lena) we examine the nature of annual and seasonal discharge trends by investigating the flow changes along with those for precipitation, snow depth, and snow water equivalent. On the basis of a multiperiod trend analysis and examination of station data, we propose two characteristic regimes to explain the long-term discharge increase from these large Eurasian rivers. Over the early decades from approximately 1936 to 1965, annual precipitation correlates well with annual discharge, and positive discharge trends are concurrent with summer/fall discharge increases. The latter decades were marked by a divergence between winter/spring flows, which increased, amid summer/fall discharge declines. A comparison of cold season precipitation (CSP) and spring discharge trends across subbasins of the Ob, Yenisei, and Lena shows limited agreement with one precipitation data set but good agreement (R2 > 0.90) when a second is used. While natural variability in the Arctic system tends to mask these emerging trends, spatial and temporal changes can generally be characterized by increased solid precipitation, primarily to the north, along with a drier hydrography during the warm season.}, keywords = {permafrost, river discharge, snow}, author = {Rawlins, Michael A. and Ye, H. and Daqing Yang and Shiklomanov, Alexander and McDonald, Kyle C.} }