Monday, April 29, 2013

2012-13 Stanley Cup Playoff Predictions

After a draining lockout, and a sprint to the finish, the Stanley Cup Playoff field has finally been set. There's no time for advanced stat based arguments as to whether the Leafs actually deserve to make the playoffs now, it's time to sit back and enjoy. Without further delay, here are my picks for the playoffs this year, which are sure to go wrong:

Eastern Conference:

ECQF: 1) PIT over 8) NYI in 5
            7) OTT over 2) MTL in 6
            6) NYR over 3) WSH in 7
            4) BOS over 5) TOR in 5

ECSF: 1) PIT over 7) OTT in 6
           4) BOS over 6) NYR in 7

ECF: 1) PIT over 4) BOS in 5

Western Conference:

WCQF: 1) CHI over 8) MIN in 5
              2) ANA over 7) DET in 7
              3) VAN over 6) SJ in 6
              5) LA over 4) STL in 6

WCSF: 1) CHI over 5) LA in 7
             3) VAN over 2) ANA 6

WCF: 1) CHI over 3) VAN in 5

2013 Stanley Cup Finals: 1) PIT over 1) CHI in 6

Sorry in advance to both the Penguins and Blackhawks for jinxing you. I don't mean to.

Wednesday, April 24, 2013

It's not Munich or Dortmund. It's Germany.

Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund have probably caused the first massive shift in the center European soccer power since Barcelona beat Manchester United in the 2009 Champions League Final. Bayern's 4-0 demolition of the Blaugrana, coupled with Dortmund's brilliance against Real Madrid have called many to say that the best league in Europe is the German Bundesliga, taking over from La Liga. This column is not condemn that view, it's to enhance it, so far as to say the Bundesliga's climb to the top began far before these last 2 days. But how long will this stay atop the European perch last for Germany? I for one welcome our new German soccer overlords. 

The 2 massive home statements by Germany's 2 best clubs has been the cherry on top of the Bundesliga's coronation, which has been in the works since 2010. After Bayern Munich last won the Champions League in 2001, the Bundesliga began to slip on the continental scale, as Spain continued to rule, England rose dramatically, and Italy was winning plaudits. No German team made the final again until Bayern did in 2010 when they lost to Inter Milan, but they beat Manchester United in the process, making a statement of intent for German football. Borussia Dortmund were down in debt and close to bankruptcy in mid 2005, before they organically built themselves up again to where they are now... reckoning as one of Europe's biggest teams. You cannot pinpoint when the rise began to happen, but the reclamation in Dortmund, plus Bayern eliminating a European titan at the time was a statement of intent. Even when Schalke were demolished in the semifinals by the same Manchester United team one year later, something had been proved. Bayern's loss in the final to Chelsea last year seems now to have only been a one year delay in the inevitable coronation.

Talent from the Bundesliga has now been plucked by the top teams in both Spain and England, even more so than the raiding from within, showing how far the quality of the league has come. Think of players like Shinji Kagawa, Sami Khedira, Mesut Ozil, Edin Dzeko even, who all have played major roles for their teams after big money moves away from the Bundesliga. Think even of Arsenal's German contingent, and the transfer rumors surrounding players like Gotze, Reus, and others. And all the talent has been grown organically, or through minor signings that turn out to become major surprises, like Robert Lewandowski. And with talents like Mario Gotze deciding to move up in Germany, rather than to places like Manchester City or Chelsea, the strength of the Bundesliga continues to show itself. But the players have built slowly towards the defining moment of the rise of the Bundesliga: Pep Guardiola's decision (far more important than Lebron's).

Pep Guardiola could have ended his sabbatical anywhere he wanted, as he is the hottest managerial commodity Europe has seen in years. Instead of choosing the mega-bucks of City or Chelsea, the prestige of Manchester United, or the temperament of owners in Milan, or now even rescuing his own Barcelona team, he chose to go to Munich, on the coattails of one of the best managers in German football, Jupp Heyneckes. To make it even "worse", Bayern could be on the verge of a treble, making Pep's job of moving Bayern Munich forward even harder. That announcement says a lot about where the Bundesliga is, compared to the Premier League, La Liga and Serie A. 

The Bundesliga is not solely strong on the strength of the 2 giants, teams like Bayer Leverkusen, Schalke, Stuttgart and others have plenty of clout when playing in Europe, and are developing their own special talents. Schalke have a wunderkid in Julian Draxler, and Lewis Holtby was no slouch either. Leverkusen have had the perilous task of holding onto prolific striker Andre Schurrle from being plucked by bigger teams (even though it looks like Chelsea will), and German teams continue to produce a staggering amount of great young talent after all the investment in the youth set-up (part of the reason US fans know names like Fabian Johnson, and Timmy Chandler). That repletion rate, even for teams like Dortmund, will be why the Bundesliga's stay atop Europe's perch will be long, despite comparisons of this Dortmund team to Ajax squads of the mid 90's. 

Since the Bundesliga has the best of both the Premier League, with good quality European teams behind the Champion (yes I am including City), and La Liga with the top 2 teams being legendary, their dominance of the European scene might be longer than what either of the 2 other leagues could muster. Even if Germany's rise has coincided with the decline of Serie A, and that plays a major role for you, you have to give credit to German teams for their homegrown initiatives to move on the decline to their south. English teams could learn a think or two on how to deal with debt and climb the ladder like Borussia Dortmund has. Even if you are worried about Dortmund's squad of wunderkids getting picked apart, their ability to replace players like Kagawa, and even Lucas Barrios has been impressive, and Jurgen Klopp isn't a hot managerial candidate for big jobs everywhere for nothing.

The coronation of the Bundesliga this week has been well deserved, but these 2 matches were the cherry on top of the sundae that has been building for quite some time. 

Sunday, April 21, 2013

Did You See That: Why Luis Suarez Bit Branislav Ivanovic

Luis Suarez is a soccer lightning-rod by this point. Controversial, yet very talented. Today's antics are just another example, because he apparently bit Branislav Ivanovic. People have wondered why he would do such a thing, and so have I. Here are a few I thought of:

1. He did the same thing when he was at Ajax, and usually most players are successful when they do the same things that made them famous at Ajax.

2. Turns out there aren't any Serbian restaurants on Merseyside, and he wanted any chance he could get to eat Serbian.

3. Biting someone on the arm is a greeting that's socially acceptable in Uruguay...? That's not right...

4. He's a big Mike Tyson fan, but thought that the ear would have too much fat in a Chelsea player.

5. Since he didn't win a medal at the 2012 Summer Olympics, he had to bite something and smile while in the public eye to make up for it.

6. Since this cost Liverpool whatever slim chance they had left at playing in Europe next season, Suarez really must hate those trips to Belarus and the Czech Republic to play on Thursdays.

7. He didn't think the term "beautiful game" applied to any Chelsea defender.

8. Suarez felt guilty because he wasn't red carded for biting, so he wanted to let Kevin Friend's awful refereeing off the hook by having this controversy hang over the game.

9. I guess being a vampire fan doesn't mean you have to be on "Team Edward" or "Team Bella".

10. "He was offering out his arm close to my mouth, so I had to bite him." Luis Suarez's possible excuse. Sure you did, you Alex Burrows impersonator.

11. Hell, at least he didn't bite on what Francisco Gallardo bit on:

12. Luis Suarez really wanted me to write another re-hash joke list for my blog.

"You'll Never Walk Alone" when you play for Liverpool, but you're sure to bite someone alone.

Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Yes the Southeast Division is Bad but...

The Hart Trophy is awarded every year by the NHL to the "player judged most valuable to his team". Today that can mean one of many things, but as more people (like your humble scribe) have the ability to spout off opinions on who should win this award, some of the standards have gotten ridiculous. So this sees the creation of the argument about Alex Ovechkin not deserving the Hart because "he plays in the Southeast Division". Is this because we all love Sidney Crosby so much, or do we just all emulate Don Cherry subconsciously? The answer: neither. Ovechkin deserves Hart consideration as much as Sidney Crosby, Jonathan Toews and Sergei Bobrovsky do. But saying that Ovechkin doesn't deserve Hart consideration because of his division makes no sense, and doesn't really capture the spirit of the award.

On March 17, the Capitals were 14th in the conference with 23 points, and looked all but dead. Before the Caps game against the Sabres that night, Ovechkin had 8 goals, and many were debating whether he even deserved the Caps captaincy at that stage. Since then? The Caps have lost twice in regulation and Ovechkin has scored 20 goals, lifting the Capitals from the Seth Jones sweepstakes to being a team no one wants to play in the postseason. What changed? It is true that Ovechkin has scored 11 of these goals against Southeast division foes in the 7 games against them. But after that win against the Sabres on March 17, Ovechkin went on a 9 game point streak that help the Caps go on the tear that they are still on. Without that, would the Capitals be anywhere near where they are now?

It's not Ovi's fault that the Southeast division is hot garbage, and that both Carolina and Tampa have failed to live up to preseason expectations, but he's done what he has to do to help the Caps win. He's scored 24 of his 28 goals in wins, and tallied 15 of 20 assists in wins as well. Since they've been winning a lot, those goals look a lot more influential. When Ovechkin seemed invisible, the Caps were one of the worst teams in the NHL. Now that he's back to his old self? The hottest team in the league that hasn't lost in the month of April.

My interpretation of "most valuable player" is the player that, without them, their team would be nowhere near as good. The Capitals found out that answer the hard way early in the season. No offense to Sidney Crosby, but the Penguins haven't really missed a beat since he was injured against the Islanders. Have they been the juggernaut that they were in March? No, and his presence not being there has hurt the Penguins, but they have gone 4-2 since his injury, and look to be humming along quite nicely towards the playoffs. It's no coincidence that when Ovechkin got hot, the Capitals did as well. The rise in play of Nick Backstrom and a better understanding of Adam Oates' system has helped, but no one else on that team is scoring those 20 goals that Ovechkin has in the last month.

Playing against bad teams certainly can help pad your stats (especially in the SE where most teams are defensively deficient), but disappearing in those games would be more worrying than disappearing mainly in the big games. And since every game for the Caps down this stretch has basically been a playoff game, Alex Ovechkin has played his best hockey at the right time. Sure those games have come against bad teams, but that isn't to say the urgency wasn't there. When the Capitals needed him most, Alex Ovechkin was there to help them win, and doesn't that earn him consideration for the Hart?

Yes the Southeast Division is bad, but when every game feels like a playoff game, it doesn't matter who you play.

Thursday, April 11, 2013

Another "MLS Salary Cap" Story

Your humble scribe here has been getting into MLS more and more this season, and has also been following the process of the MLS teams advancing in the CONCACAF Champions League. The final 2, Seattle Sounders and LA Galaxy, ran into the typical Liga MX buzzsaw in their semifinal ties, and thus are both out. MLS has made some major strides in the last few years, and finally outing a Mexican team over 2 legs is the next goal. But, why isn't it happening now, and does MLS' infamous salary cap have anything to do with it?

The 2013 MLS salary cap was set at $2.95 million, which does seem low, especially when you compare it to the wage bills of global teams, even ones across the border in Mexico. But, the salary cap is necessary for MLS now, and might forever be a part of the league. The owners in MLS aren't necessarily the wealthiest, or the most occupied with soccer (see Clark Hunt and Robert Kraft as examples), so the salary cap keeps the playing field for the league mainly level. There is an extreme level of parity in the league, and the Designated Player rule doesn't change anything about that. While MLS teams may not have the depth in their squads that Liga MX sides do, the salary cap doesn't change why Seattle and LA were both bounced. They were bounced for reasons on the pitch, not in the front office.

The only way the salary cap in MLS will drastically increase is if there is a massive influx of cash into the leagues, whether it be from new TV deals or new owners investing in the league. The league is also structured in a way where the teams don't control as much the money as the league does with the single entity structure. When the salary cap was introduced in the NFL for 1994, the ceiling was $34.608 million. Now, it's $123 million. That rapid increase didn't happen overnight, and when the money rolled in, the salary cap went up with it. Just ask some NHL owners what they think of the cap floor and ceiling now. MLS is nowhere near that level of growth yet, and while the league and game are both growing well, the salary cap won't drastically shoot up unless the cash is there, which right now it isn't.

What would MLS teams do with a salary cap increase to $4 or $5 million per team? Probably invest in their own players so that they don't jump abroad when the chance comes. Would they invest in depth players from other leagues? Certainly, but even then would MLS match up with the depth of Liga MX squads with more money at that stage? Probably not. Liga MX has been around in one form or another since 1943. MLS has been around since 1996. The amount of growth MLS has experienced since 1996 has been remarkable, but progress comes slowly, and time where the 2 major leagues of CONCACAF will be equals is not here yet, but will be soon. Don't forget, Liga MX has a much easier time developing homegrown talent as compared to MLS, which has the complications of the SuperDraft, playing college soccer, and teams own academies. MLS will get closer to Liga MX when the level of homegrown talent gets closer to being even, not by signing slightly better depth players from around the world.

MLS, while still having some convoluted player movement methods, has grown from nearly folding in 2002, to becoming an attractive option for players around the world. Look to the likes of Obafemi Martins, Robbie Keane, and David Beckham coming to MLS when they are/were still quality international players. That competition, including some from other international players, has forced MLS and US Soccer to make American players better, and that is seen in the national team, where every player that stepped on the field at Azteca last month played in MLS at one point. As a newcomer to the league, MLS continues to impress with the level of quality on a technical and physical level. It can still improve, and it will continue to improve. But winning CONCACAF Champions League won't just come from increasing the salary cap. It will come from improvements everywhere else in the league first.

Matthew Doyle of the MLS official website said it best: "20 years ago they said it wouldn't happen. 15 years ago they said it wouldn't last. 10 years ago they said it wouldn't grow. 5 years ago, the stadiums would never be full. Now they're saying MLS teams will never win a CONCACAF Champions League title. Let them."

5 years from now, MLS detractors will find something new to complain about. This whole mess is just another phase.

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