Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Tight race in Alberta in new polls as by-elections loom

















  1. Replies
    1. I'll take Wildrose over a tired corrupt Alberta PC Government that has been in power too long and has made a PC membership a requirement to get anything done.

  2. Definitely time for a change bede but whether the public wants to go further right with Wildrose or try a bit left with ??

    Be interesting to watch anyway from back here East.

    1. Peter,

      Jim Prentice is extraordinarily talented. He isn't your average Alberta Joe. That was recognized recently by CIBC. Many of us knew that way back when. Watch the new broom sweep -- like never before. Danielle Smith needs to take nothing for granted.

    2. No argument Ron but time may be against him as well. So what happens in the next month or two could be extremely important. as is the public mood !!

    3. It would be nice if Alberta could develop a genuine two party system with left and right but, Alberta doesn't work that way. 75% of the people are conservative, as the polls today show Wildrose is the only credible alternative to the PCs. The Liberals and NDP need to at least talk about a merger for publicity's sake if nothing else. Splitting 9 seats between them is almost the definition of futility.

      Prentice is extremely talented but, the problem runs so much deeper than the premier or cabinet or PC caucus. Alberta is imbued with 3 generations of PC cronyism and the mechanism of this quid pro quo are indelibly marked in the mindset of Albertans. If that was the only problem perhaps a new beneveolent government would be the solution but, Alberta has never had an effective two party system or opposition. The whole party system in Alberta needs reform. As the price of oil sinks the greater the chance of such reform occuring.

    4. I'm wondering how much affect this sudden crash in oil prices will have, Given Alberta's really poor financial situation it could be a disaster.

    5. Alberta's royalty scheme is based on price, the higher the price of oil the larger the share of the royalty. For example if oil is at $100 a barrell the royalty may be 4% but at $80 the royalty may fall to 3%. If oil remains around $80 a barrell for a extended period it will become difficult for Alberta to balance its budget.

      A larger problem for Alberta is that Alberta bitumen is cost prohiobitive. Alberta oil needs to be pureified before it is salable consequently the cost per barrell is high. Costs range between $50-90 per well. At $80 some wells become unprofitable and will be shut down at least temporarily and that means lay-offs for all those who work at marginal oil production wells.

    6. Today WTI spiked below $80/barrel. Now as you know Alberta oil gets less than WTI. So this says hard times ahead for Alberta as the rest of the country does better because ob the low value of the loonie which means bigger exports !!

    7. Don't forget bede that Canadian crude sells for less on the world market than WTI.

      So if WTI is $80 Alberta crude will get about $70. So the impact of the current crash in oil prices is more severe here !

    8. Alberta's financial situation doesn't need to be poor. When Ralph balanced the budget in 1994, oil was at $12/bbl.

      Improving Alberta's finances doesn't require more revenue. It requires disciplined cuts to spending.

    9. Peter,

      I am well aware that Alberta oil (Western Canadian Select) sells for a discount. At the moment WCS sells for 85% of the WTI price. For Alberta producers the selling side is not the problem, some wells make money with oil at $30bbl the problem is the cost. Buying WCS at 85% of the WTI price is great but, often further refining is required and costs to produce are high (Synthetic crude sells for 98% of the WTI price). The differential between WTI and WCS has declined over the last year from $31.71 to $14.16 as has the differential between WTI and synthetic crude. It is not easy to explain how this has occurred in a environment of falling oil prices. As of today however, the decline has been felt less severely in a relative sense in Alberta than other oil producing regions.


      If Alberta cut spending a deficit could be avoided but, it is difficult to do in a province with a growing population. Alberta's tough environment also increase costs for maintenance and repair and frankly, wages need to be higher in Alberta to attract work. I'm not saying efficiencies can't be found but, there are few obvious places to start cutting. The other problem; Alberta is heavily reliant on oil royalties accounting for about 25% of revenues.

    10. Thanks for that bede, I knew there was a differential but the actual details I didn't know. This helps !

      And if Alberta, as most Govts, works on a percentage of price system for its revenue then Alberta is in real trouble with this price crash. Which Jim Prentice said the other night.

  3. Replies
    1. Seconding that! would love to see a projection if you have a chance, especially given the regional breakdown in these polls!

    2. I did run it through the model (I made a brief mention of the seat implications at the end) but didn't include the numbers in the post.

      The Lethbridge College poll gave me 46 PC, 25 WR, 8 NDP, 8 LIB. If I added the standard kind of ranges to that, a PC minority scenario would doubtlessly be very possible.

  4. The PCs may lose some seats in the by-election. However, I think Prentice can turn things around for the PCs and form government again after the next election.

    I believe PC support hit rock bottom after the Redford scandals. She is gone and Prentice is competent and skilled enough to move the narrative beyond past scandals.

    The Wildrose does not seem to have this the bag. If the Wildrose is seen to have momentum, Liberal and NDP voters may hold their nose and vote PC again to block Danielle Smith from being premier.

    The center-left in Alberta need to organize themselves better. Alberta is one jurisdiction where the Liberals and NDP are better off as a merged political entity. With the right leader, organization and policies this entity could form government. A strong party in the center-left, along with Wildrose on the right would mean the end of the PC dynasty for good.

    1. Pretty unlikely the PCs will lose a by-eelction with these poll numbers. Surely voters aren't going to reject a premier, Mandel for some strange reason is popular amongst Edmontonians. All the by-elections are in what should be safe PC seats and the polls do not indicate PC not opposition momentum.

      If NDP and Liberal voters are foolish enough to vote PC instead of holding the balance of power in a minority Legislature they deserve the government they get. It was absolutely shameful in 2012 when Liberals who waited several generations to have a say in government abandoned the party and vopted for their traditional PC opponents. What they got in return was a government far worse than any danielle Smith could have conjured and demonstrated the foolishness of "strategic voting".

    2. Bebe,

      There are four by-elections occurring in Alberta. The premier can only run in one of them. There is a chance the PCs may lose a seat or two.

    3. Thanks Big jay I am well aware of how many by-elections will take place on Oct. 27th. Cabinet ministers will run in three out of four. The oppositions' best hope is probably Calgary Elbow but, its history is hardly one of radicalism or even a gentle nudging of the boat. depending on the poll the Tories are either up by 10 points in Edmonton or Calgary or down by a point in either case the advantage probably rests with the incumbent party-the Progressive Conservatives.

      There is of course a very small chance the Tories will lose one by-election but, it would be very unlikely, momentum is with the PCs along with nearly three generations of history.

  5. A Red Tory is the last thing Alberta needs right now. I really hope WR manages to pull out a victory in at least one of these byelections.

  6. Would anybody here on this site be interested in the creation of a Canadian Politics forum on Delphi ??

    1. I participated in one, many years ago.

    2. I think there mat be a case for creating one again ?


