Friday, February 24, 2012

Three questions for Marwan Bishara: Determining Syria’s future in Tunisia

Al Jazeera's senior political analyst looks at diplomatic efforts to secure peace in Syria.

"As officials from more than 70 countries gather to explore options for peace in Syria, Al Jazeera's senior political analyst offers his scrutiny of the meeting.

What do you make of the 'Friends of Syria' meeting in Tunisia?

Despite the attendance of so many countries and international organisations, the "Friends of Syria" meeting rang hollow, in light of the disagreement among the "friends" and the absence of the doubters - notably Russia and China....

That's why the more effective and actionable results of the Tunisia gathering are more likely to come out of the hallway discussions and backroom deals than the official meeting and its final statement....

....However, it will be the attempts by certain countries to arm the opposition that will prove a game changer....

What do you make of the absence of Russia and China?

What does the future hold for Syria?

....If Assad had listened to the voice of reason and the agony of his people from the outset, perhaps there would have been a chance for reform and reconciliation.

The Syrian regime has now lost all legitimacy and there is no more room for reconciliation under Assad's leadership. It's just too late for that.

Already more than a quarter of the population is either on the streets on directly implicated by the mass demonstrations, and is in direct confrontation with the forces of the regime. With more than 7,000 killed - and many more injured and displaced - the window of opportunity for reconciliation has long since closed.

Moreover, the expected collapse of Syria's currency and the regime's inability to pay salaries to its soldiers and bureaucrats will, for all practical purpose, destroy whatever technical legitimacy it commands in the country - and perhaps lead to its implosion from within.

In the meantime, in the absence of Arab consensus and with a lack of serious international diplomatic pressure, arming the opposition renders the escalation towards civil war all but imminent - short of an implosion within the regime's inner circles.

It's a zero sum game that will probably, at the end of the day, leave everyone on the losing side."

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